No hay notas en la diapositiva.
UNEP’s flagship publication, Towards A Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Alleviation, is the result of two year’s work, involving about 500 people from several UN agencies and numerous institutions from around the globe. This includes about 150 contributing authors, who are experts in their field, and a robust scientific peer review process. Today’s presentation, however, focuses on the findings of the report. It will cover some background information on what is a green economy, the sectors studied and the modeling. Then it will cover the key findings and provide a few examples, before concluding.
UNEP’s report assumes investing – or reallocating – 2% of global GDP to green 10 key sectors to kick-start a transition to a low-carbon, resource-efficient economy. The report uses a macroeconomic model to compare a 2% of global GDP investment under a BAU scenario to 2% of global GDP under a GE scenario, applying it to “green” 10 key sectors. The report measures the results not only in terms of GDP, but also the impacts on employment, resource intensity, emissions and ecological impact. We estimated that the annual financing demand to green the global economy was in the range of US 1.05-$2.59 trillion, and took an annual level of $1.3 trillion (i.e., 2% of GDP) as a target for reallocation from “brown” investments to green investments. Under a BAU scenario, it is assumed that policies would continue to support carbon-intensive infrastructure and harmful subsidies. For example, production and price subsidies for fossil fuels exceeded US $650 billion in 2008, which adversely affects a transition to renewable energies. Under a green scenario, policies would be adopted to reduce harmful subsidies and incentives would be created to increase investments in natural capital and energy efficiency, for example. The report’s findings provide evidence that important economic, social and environmental gains can be achieved in a green economy, as compared to a brown economy.
The Green Economy Report makes the case that over time the number of “new and decent jobs created” in sectors - ranging from renewable energies to more sustainable agriculture - will however offset those lost from the former “brown economy”. The report acknowledges that in the short-term, job losses in some sectors—fisheries for example—are inevitable if they are to transition towards sustainability. Investment, in some cases funded from cuts in harmful subsidies, will be required to re-skill and re-train some sections of the global workforce to ensure a fair and socially acceptable transition.
This slide illustrates the large component of natural resources in the overall wealth of the poor. The table can be used to illustrate the large percentage of natural resources in the GDP of developing countries – particularly when adjusted for non market and ecosystem services – and also, fundamentally, of the GDP of the poor. The bottom line here is that by depleting environmental assets the poor are typically most adversely affected. Hence the importance of moving towards a green economy for those most dependent on natural resources – by investing in natural capital as a source of economic growth and well-being.
A Green Economy is not about stifling growth and prosperity, it is about reconnecting with what is real wealth; re-investing in rather than just mining natural capital; and, favouring the many over the few. This shows how a green economy would stimulate economic growth and acutally exceed growth compared to a business as usual scenario over time.
A green economy would reduce ecological footprint by nearly 50 per cent in 2050, as compared to business as usual.
Innovative and imaginative public policies will be vital to generate enabling conditions that, in turn, can unleash markets and direct private sector investments into a Green Economic transition. These include: Sound regulatory frameworks , a prioritizing of government spending and procurement in areas that stimulate green economic sectors and limits on spending that deplete natural capital. Removing subidies could save 1-2% of global GDP a year, open fiscal space and makes room for public and private investment for a green economy transition Taxation and smart market mechanisms that shift consumer spending and promote green innovation. Public investments in capacity building and training , alongside a strengthening of international governance.
Total capital formation is about 19-22% of total global GDP per year. So 2% of GDP is about 1/10 of that. Investment in clean energy includes investment in small hydro-power (projects of between 0.5 and 50MW). But these do not represent much of the total. In the previous estimates for 2009, small-scale hydro represented less than 4% of the total investments.