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AIR VICE MARSHAL MOHAN DE ZOYSA
                 SRI LANKA AIR FORCE

               DEFENCE OF THESIS
     SUICIDE TERRORISM: THREAT & RESPONSE
                     2012




                         Scope
• Introduction
• Statement of the Problem
• Hypothesis
• Research Question
• Major Findings
• Gist of the analyses
• Recommendations
• Literature Review and Sources of Research
  • Methodology Followed
  • Conclusion
Introduction
  • Since the year 1982, the phenomenon of suicide
    terrorist attacks has spread all over the world and
    many countries have found themselves suffering the
    effects of this growing terrorist ‘modus operandi’
  • The suicide terrorist is no more than a platform that
    carries the explosive charge to its target. However,
    this platform can think, adapt to situational changes
    and act at the right time and the right place to
    detonate the explosive device so as to create
    maximum carnage and destruction in a spectacular
    manner; it is the ultimate precision guided smart
    human bomb
Statement of the Problem
  • This ‘exploratory’ research study will attempt to
    contribute new knowledge to expand the
    educational theory and/or practice, as to how to
identify the suicide terrorist threat, and how to
   respond to dissuade, deter, or defeat the suicide
   terrorist before he or she reaches the target. As such
   the objectives of this research study will focus
   specifically on;




     – Identifying the threat of suicide terrorist
     – Formulating a strategy, to respond to / counter
       suicide terrorism
Hypothesis
 • The ‘initiative of action’ in conducting a suicide
   attack, predominantly lies with the terrorist than, in
   conducting any other type of attack by terrorists.
   How then should democracies identify the threat
   and respond to suicide terrorist attacks?
 • It is my expectation that, the research will conclude
   that, if we are to defeat the suicide terrorist, we need
   to wrest the ‘initiative of action’ from him or her, and
   use it to our own advantage; and in order to do this,
we have to be ‘one step ahead’ of the suicide
  terrorist, at all times
• In order to be ‘one step ahead’ we need to broaden
  the intelligence priority information requirement to
  ‘find and fix’ the suicide terrorist attacker; in other
  words, how we need to look at the ‘bigger picture’
• For, the suicide terrorist attacker to be successful in
  his/her attack at least a skeleton support
  organization must exist; recruitment drive, training,
  induction to target area, safe house, reconnaissance,
  communications, preparation of the bomb,
  psychological preparation, final briefing and video
  filming of the attack (for terrorist propaganda)
• If all intelligence efforts are directed towards any one
  or more of the suicide terrorist attacker’s support
  elements, it would eventually lead us to the suicide
  terrorist attacker
• Whilst the intelligence effort is continued, the
  military could conduct ‘pre-emptive’ attacks on the
  terrorists’ infrastructure to destroy the terrorists and
their bases, and to prevent them from recruiting and
    reorganizing for further suicide terrorist action
Research Question
  • Considering the wide spectrum of aspects the
    subject of ‘Suicide Terrorism’ covers, the research
    will limit its exploration & discussion, as to how to
    identify the suicide terrorist ‘threat’ and how to
    ‘respond’ to dissuade, deter, or defeat the suicide
    terrorist attacker before he or she reaches the target




Major Findings
  • There are six main types of suicide improvised
    explosive devices (IEDs). These are:
      – the human-borne suicide IED, also known as the
        suicide bodysuit
      – the vehicle-borne suicide IED
      – the motorcycle-borne suicide IED
      – naval craft-borne suicide IED
– scuba diver-borne suicide IED
    – aerial- (micro/ultra light, glider, mini-helicopter)
      borne suicide IED
• There are two types of suicide terrorist operations:
  on-the-battlefield and off-the-battlefield
• Preventive arrests reduces suicide terrorist
  bombings, while targeted killings only increases the
  terrorist activity
• Increased protective measures and the exposure of
  the potential suicide terrorist before he/she has the
  opportunity to carry out the attack at the planned
  target may reduce the amount of damage caused by
  the suicide terrorist and perhaps even prevent the
  attack
• It is impossible to stop a suicide terrorist. There is no
  operational answer to it
• The key to stopping suicide terrorism campaigns, is
  to prevent the rise of a new generation of suicide
  terrorists, by addressing the root causes of terrorism
• Countries which are "conducive to the spread of
    suicide terrorism" are those characterized by
    violations of human rights, ethnic, national and
    religious discrimination, political exclusion, socio-
    economic marginalization, and “lack of good
    governance”
      – The formula to counter suicide terrorism is
        “defeat-clear-hold-build”
Gist of the analyses
  • Existing research shows that suicide terrorism is a
    problematic term to define. There is no universally
    accepted definition of the term ‘terrorist’ let alone of
    the term ‘suicide terrorist’
  • Working definitions for the purpose of this research;
      – Terrorist: An insurgent, militant, rebel, freedom
        fighter, fundamentalist, radical, extremist,
        miscreant or non-state actor who, willingly
        perpetrates violence against the military, non-
        combatants and civilians, causing death or
        bodily harm to them, with the intention of
        instilling fear and panic to attain political or
ideological goals, as part of an organizational
      strategy
• Working definitions for the purpose of research;
  (cont’d)
    – Suicide Terrorist: A ‘terrorist’ who attacks the
      target by willingly killing him/her self with the
      blast of an explosives device, detonated by
      him/her self or allow to be detonated remotely
      by another terrorist, against the military, non-
      combatants and civilians, causing death or
      bodily harm to them, with the intention of
      instilling fear and panic to attain strategic,
      political or ideological goals, as part of an
      organizational strategy. This also includes so
      called ‘martyr’ terrorists, however excludes
      suicide/homicide bombers, suicidal high risk
      attacks and suicidal protests
• Today, the suicide bombers are middle-aged and
  young, married and unmarried, and male and
  female; some of them even pregnant or having
  children. Now even children are being trained and
employed for suicide attacks. There is no clear profile
   of a suicide terrorist attacker anymore
 • The latest research finds Strong confirmation that
   military occupation is the main factor driving
   transnational suicide terrorism
Recommendations
 • Democratic governments need to broaden the
   intelligence priority information requirement to ‘find
   and fix’ the suicide bomber; in other words, how we
   need to look at the ‘bigger picture’
 • All intelligence efforts must be directed towards any
   one or more of the suicide bomber’s support
   element, which eventually will lead to the suicide
   bomber
 • Whilst the intelligence effort is continued, the
   military must conduct pre-emptive attacks on the
   terrorists’ infrastructure to destroy the terrorists and
   their bases, and to prevent them from recruiting and
   reorganizing for further suicide terrorist action
 • In responding to the threat of suicide terrorism, we
   will need to strengthen the important “elements of
national power” including national leadership,
    diplomatic, informational, financial, economic
    capacity, national morale and military strength
  • It also calls for simultaneously, developing a
    comprehensive strategic plan
  • In order to combat terrorism in general and suicide
    terrorism in particular, members of the international
    community must:
      • Deny terrorists the support and sanctuary of
        rogue states
      • Deny terrorists control of any nation they would
        use as a base and launching pad for terror
Literature Review and Sources of Research
  • Personal experiences & observations over a period of
    30 years in the Air Force, out of which 28 years, in
    counterterrorism operations against Liberation Tigers
    of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) terrorists in Sri Lanka.
  • The strategies adopted to find and fix the suicide
    terrorist before he/she could launch the attack and
    to wrest the initiative of action from the hand of the
suicide terrorist, to defeat the suicide terrorist threat
  to some extent, in Sri Lanka, have been invaluable
  for      the       review      (excluding      classified
  strategic/operational details)
• Books (personal copies purchased from Jinnah Super
  Market Islamabad – 20, and books borrowed from
  the NDU Library – 12), articles, public documents,
  public proceedings, internet resources and research
  paperspublished by experts on the topic of the
  research, formed a substantial part of the review
• However, during the literature review, the author
  found that, research on the subject of suicide
  terrorism is plagued by the lack of a common
  definition of the concept
• Some authors avoid the term terrorism altogether,
  adopt the terrorism label without defining it, or
  expand the range of applicability of the definition
  well beyond terrorism
• Among those who resist the term terrorism, some
  focus on the subjective interpretations of the
  perpetrators and the idea of martyrdom in specific
cultures and thus avoid the term suicide as well,
   because both labels are objectionable to those who
   practice or condone such violence
 • Others use the term terrorism to refer exclusively to
   attacks on civilian, not military, targets
 • The concept of suicide terrorism remains imprecise,
   so much so that, certain research work totally avoid
   the use of the term ‘terrorist’ and refer to them as
   ‘miscreants, militants or extremists’
 • As a consequence of contradiction, ambiguity and
   biases, not many meaningful lessons could be drawn
   from the vast majority of literature available for
   review
Methodology Followed
 • The broader area of study of “Suicide Terrorism” was
   narrowed down to the specific research question, to
   focus the study on the suicide terrorism – ‘Threat
   and Response’
 • The hypotheses were then formulated
• The review of observations, data and literature on
  the topic was carried out
• The statement of the problem was then formulated
• The research was designed with the qualitative
  approach, which involved the collection of data and
  literature for an in-depth study
• The collection of Primary and Secondary historical
  data, observations, and literature on the topic was
  conducted
• Having reviewed the qualitative research material,
  the observations, data and literature were analyzed
  to establish patterns, trends, and linkages to
  understand the phenomena of defeating the suicide
  terrorist
• The observations, data, literature and other relevant
  research material having been duly analyzed were
  then interpreted to find answers to the “research
  questions” and to prove or disprove the hypotheses
  formulated
• Finally the thesis was compiled, describing the
  background, how the research was conducted, what
was discovered and recommendations to formulate a
    national strategy to counter suicide terrorism
  • The thesis was designed and developed into five
    major parts:
      • Chapter - I: Introduction
      • Chapter - II: Analysis of the Threat,
      • Chapter- III: Formulation of Strategy for
        Response
      • Chapter -IV: Recommendations for Response to
        the Threat
      • Chapter - V: Conclusion


Conclusion
Future Threat Scenario
  • When CBRN material are introduced to a suicide
    bomb (using its blast effect to disperse the material),
    the potential for destruction is unprecedented
Impact on Research
• It’s a long march ahead of us before we can develop
  valid, comprehensive, cross-national explanations of
  this phenomenon, and perhaps an even longer
  march to be able to specify the conditions and
  indicators that could help us predict and prevent
  suicide terrorist attacks

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Defence Of Thesis Script

  • 1. AIR VICE MARSHAL MOHAN DE ZOYSA SRI LANKA AIR FORCE DEFENCE OF THESIS SUICIDE TERRORISM: THREAT & RESPONSE 2012 Scope • Introduction • Statement of the Problem • Hypothesis • Research Question • Major Findings • Gist of the analyses • Recommendations
  • 2. • Literature Review and Sources of Research • Methodology Followed • Conclusion Introduction • Since the year 1982, the phenomenon of suicide terrorist attacks has spread all over the world and many countries have found themselves suffering the effects of this growing terrorist ‘modus operandi’ • The suicide terrorist is no more than a platform that carries the explosive charge to its target. However, this platform can think, adapt to situational changes and act at the right time and the right place to detonate the explosive device so as to create maximum carnage and destruction in a spectacular manner; it is the ultimate precision guided smart human bomb Statement of the Problem • This ‘exploratory’ research study will attempt to contribute new knowledge to expand the educational theory and/or practice, as to how to
  • 3. identify the suicide terrorist threat, and how to respond to dissuade, deter, or defeat the suicide terrorist before he or she reaches the target. As such the objectives of this research study will focus specifically on; – Identifying the threat of suicide terrorist – Formulating a strategy, to respond to / counter suicide terrorism Hypothesis • The ‘initiative of action’ in conducting a suicide attack, predominantly lies with the terrorist than, in conducting any other type of attack by terrorists. How then should democracies identify the threat and respond to suicide terrorist attacks? • It is my expectation that, the research will conclude that, if we are to defeat the suicide terrorist, we need to wrest the ‘initiative of action’ from him or her, and use it to our own advantage; and in order to do this,
  • 4. we have to be ‘one step ahead’ of the suicide terrorist, at all times • In order to be ‘one step ahead’ we need to broaden the intelligence priority information requirement to ‘find and fix’ the suicide terrorist attacker; in other words, how we need to look at the ‘bigger picture’ • For, the suicide terrorist attacker to be successful in his/her attack at least a skeleton support organization must exist; recruitment drive, training, induction to target area, safe house, reconnaissance, communications, preparation of the bomb, psychological preparation, final briefing and video filming of the attack (for terrorist propaganda) • If all intelligence efforts are directed towards any one or more of the suicide terrorist attacker’s support elements, it would eventually lead us to the suicide terrorist attacker • Whilst the intelligence effort is continued, the military could conduct ‘pre-emptive’ attacks on the terrorists’ infrastructure to destroy the terrorists and
  • 5. their bases, and to prevent them from recruiting and reorganizing for further suicide terrorist action Research Question • Considering the wide spectrum of aspects the subject of ‘Suicide Terrorism’ covers, the research will limit its exploration & discussion, as to how to identify the suicide terrorist ‘threat’ and how to ‘respond’ to dissuade, deter, or defeat the suicide terrorist attacker before he or she reaches the target Major Findings • There are six main types of suicide improvised explosive devices (IEDs). These are: – the human-borne suicide IED, also known as the suicide bodysuit – the vehicle-borne suicide IED – the motorcycle-borne suicide IED – naval craft-borne suicide IED
  • 6. – scuba diver-borne suicide IED – aerial- (micro/ultra light, glider, mini-helicopter) borne suicide IED • There are two types of suicide terrorist operations: on-the-battlefield and off-the-battlefield • Preventive arrests reduces suicide terrorist bombings, while targeted killings only increases the terrorist activity • Increased protective measures and the exposure of the potential suicide terrorist before he/she has the opportunity to carry out the attack at the planned target may reduce the amount of damage caused by the suicide terrorist and perhaps even prevent the attack • It is impossible to stop a suicide terrorist. There is no operational answer to it • The key to stopping suicide terrorism campaigns, is to prevent the rise of a new generation of suicide terrorists, by addressing the root causes of terrorism
  • 7. • Countries which are "conducive to the spread of suicide terrorism" are those characterized by violations of human rights, ethnic, national and religious discrimination, political exclusion, socio- economic marginalization, and “lack of good governance” – The formula to counter suicide terrorism is “defeat-clear-hold-build” Gist of the analyses • Existing research shows that suicide terrorism is a problematic term to define. There is no universally accepted definition of the term ‘terrorist’ let alone of the term ‘suicide terrorist’ • Working definitions for the purpose of this research; – Terrorist: An insurgent, militant, rebel, freedom fighter, fundamentalist, radical, extremist, miscreant or non-state actor who, willingly perpetrates violence against the military, non- combatants and civilians, causing death or bodily harm to them, with the intention of instilling fear and panic to attain political or
  • 8. ideological goals, as part of an organizational strategy • Working definitions for the purpose of research; (cont’d) – Suicide Terrorist: A ‘terrorist’ who attacks the target by willingly killing him/her self with the blast of an explosives device, detonated by him/her self or allow to be detonated remotely by another terrorist, against the military, non- combatants and civilians, causing death or bodily harm to them, with the intention of instilling fear and panic to attain strategic, political or ideological goals, as part of an organizational strategy. This also includes so called ‘martyr’ terrorists, however excludes suicide/homicide bombers, suicidal high risk attacks and suicidal protests • Today, the suicide bombers are middle-aged and young, married and unmarried, and male and female; some of them even pregnant or having children. Now even children are being trained and
  • 9. employed for suicide attacks. There is no clear profile of a suicide terrorist attacker anymore • The latest research finds Strong confirmation that military occupation is the main factor driving transnational suicide terrorism Recommendations • Democratic governments need to broaden the intelligence priority information requirement to ‘find and fix’ the suicide bomber; in other words, how we need to look at the ‘bigger picture’ • All intelligence efforts must be directed towards any one or more of the suicide bomber’s support element, which eventually will lead to the suicide bomber • Whilst the intelligence effort is continued, the military must conduct pre-emptive attacks on the terrorists’ infrastructure to destroy the terrorists and their bases, and to prevent them from recruiting and reorganizing for further suicide terrorist action • In responding to the threat of suicide terrorism, we will need to strengthen the important “elements of
  • 10. national power” including national leadership, diplomatic, informational, financial, economic capacity, national morale and military strength • It also calls for simultaneously, developing a comprehensive strategic plan • In order to combat terrorism in general and suicide terrorism in particular, members of the international community must: • Deny terrorists the support and sanctuary of rogue states • Deny terrorists control of any nation they would use as a base and launching pad for terror Literature Review and Sources of Research • Personal experiences & observations over a period of 30 years in the Air Force, out of which 28 years, in counterterrorism operations against Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) terrorists in Sri Lanka. • The strategies adopted to find and fix the suicide terrorist before he/she could launch the attack and to wrest the initiative of action from the hand of the
  • 11. suicide terrorist, to defeat the suicide terrorist threat to some extent, in Sri Lanka, have been invaluable for the review (excluding classified strategic/operational details) • Books (personal copies purchased from Jinnah Super Market Islamabad – 20, and books borrowed from the NDU Library – 12), articles, public documents, public proceedings, internet resources and research paperspublished by experts on the topic of the research, formed a substantial part of the review • However, during the literature review, the author found that, research on the subject of suicide terrorism is plagued by the lack of a common definition of the concept • Some authors avoid the term terrorism altogether, adopt the terrorism label without defining it, or expand the range of applicability of the definition well beyond terrorism • Among those who resist the term terrorism, some focus on the subjective interpretations of the perpetrators and the idea of martyrdom in specific
  • 12. cultures and thus avoid the term suicide as well, because both labels are objectionable to those who practice or condone such violence • Others use the term terrorism to refer exclusively to attacks on civilian, not military, targets • The concept of suicide terrorism remains imprecise, so much so that, certain research work totally avoid the use of the term ‘terrorist’ and refer to them as ‘miscreants, militants or extremists’ • As a consequence of contradiction, ambiguity and biases, not many meaningful lessons could be drawn from the vast majority of literature available for review Methodology Followed • The broader area of study of “Suicide Terrorism” was narrowed down to the specific research question, to focus the study on the suicide terrorism – ‘Threat and Response’ • The hypotheses were then formulated
  • 13. • The review of observations, data and literature on the topic was carried out • The statement of the problem was then formulated • The research was designed with the qualitative approach, which involved the collection of data and literature for an in-depth study • The collection of Primary and Secondary historical data, observations, and literature on the topic was conducted • Having reviewed the qualitative research material, the observations, data and literature were analyzed to establish patterns, trends, and linkages to understand the phenomena of defeating the suicide terrorist • The observations, data, literature and other relevant research material having been duly analyzed were then interpreted to find answers to the “research questions” and to prove or disprove the hypotheses formulated • Finally the thesis was compiled, describing the background, how the research was conducted, what
  • 14. was discovered and recommendations to formulate a national strategy to counter suicide terrorism • The thesis was designed and developed into five major parts: • Chapter - I: Introduction • Chapter - II: Analysis of the Threat, • Chapter- III: Formulation of Strategy for Response • Chapter -IV: Recommendations for Response to the Threat • Chapter - V: Conclusion Conclusion Future Threat Scenario • When CBRN material are introduced to a suicide bomb (using its blast effect to disperse the material), the potential for destruction is unprecedented Impact on Research
  • 15. • It’s a long march ahead of us before we can develop valid, comprehensive, cross-national explanations of this phenomenon, and perhaps an even longer march to be able to specify the conditions and indicators that could help us predict and prevent suicide terrorist attacks