1. The Future of Television
Mark Suster
PaidContent – November 2011
@msuster

2. So Interactive, Digital TV is Right Around the Corner?

3. Nobody Believes it Because We’ve Cried Wolf for 20
Years

4. This Has Led Our Industry to Become
Frogs Boiling in Water
Metaphor: put a frog into boiling water and it
jumps out, put it in cold water & slowly turn up
temperature and it boils to death

5. “We Overestimate the Impact of Tech on 3-year
Horizon & Underestimate on 10-year”
- Bill Gates

6. I Would Argue That the Massive Change in Television
Will Accelerate in 2012
1. Massive decrease in costs of capturing & processing video
2. Significant penetration in broadband, increases in Wi-Fi
3. Huge advances in compression
4. Massively distributed advertising market
5. Decreasing traditional paychecks to creative talent
6. Consumer behavior has made Internet video a reality

7. Bundled TV Will be the Album of the Future

8. And The Same Forces that Killed the Album Will Kill
“The Bundle”
1. Disruptive technology that breaks the distribution
strangle hold of content
2. Massive costs reductions in capture, process &
distribute
3. Consumer choice

9. YouTube is the New Comcast … And Notice the
Change in Branding

10. And My Bet is that The Future Distributors Are
Not Who Most TV Execs Think

11. So Why Now?

12. Americans watch 5.3 hours of TV / Day
TVReading
< 1 Hour
5.3 Hours
Media Patterns
Online
3 Hours

13. It’s Not Just Dogs on Skateboards Anymore

14. A Disruptive Breed of Digital Content Producer
Has Emerged
UGC Network TVYouTube
TV
Production
Costs/Minute
$100-400
$6,000-8,000
$50-100k

15. These 4 Companies Alone Doing > 3 Billion Video
Views / Month
YouTube
TV
Costs/
Minute

16. With YouTube Content Distribution is Much More
Predictable and Content Producers Have a Direct
Relationship with Viewers
ViewerViewer
 Subscribers
 Email Lists
 Facebook Connect
YouTubeYouTubeProducerProducer

17. Youth Demo Already 1/3rd
of Time Online
Watching Video
Streaming Video
Other Surfing

18. And Revenue Becoming Substantive

19. How Mainstream? 86% of All Internet Watch
Online Video

20. Aug 11
42 billion views
185 million viewers
228 videos / person
17 hours

21. 91% of Households Still Pay for TV (91%)

22. This Market Disruption Will
Be Enormous – And It’s
Accelerating Now

23. Don’t Be a Frog. Get Ahead of the Curve.

24. </end>
Thank you