I explored some ideas and shared some information with various groups within the College in Thunder Bay, Ont on 23rd January. This is the deck I dipped in / out of. No one group saw all of these slides and all groups saw some of the same slides. Dip in and explore.

1. Understanding The Future and Emerging
Technologies & Their Implications for
Online and Blended Learning
Confederation College, 2020
Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FBPsS FRSA
Chief Innovation Officer
January 2020

2. The Futures Jig
Saw

3. Demographics (General)
 As baby boomers retire the dependency
ratio changes – in Canada from 4:1 to 2:1 by
2030
 Some countries below population
replacement – especially Japan, Russia and
Germany
 Others rapidly growing – especially in Asia,
China, Egypt and Saudi Arabia
 Immigration essential in many countries –
Canada needs to double its immigration to
“stay the same”

4. Demographics
of North West
Ontario
 Between 2018 and 2046 we can expect:
10-15% overall population growth,
mainly in indigenous communities
Falling share of the Ontario
population – down from 2.6% in 1986
to 1.3% by 2046
Dramatic growth in the senior's
population – growing by 50%
between 2018 and 2046
A modest 10% growth in K-12
population over this same time span

5. Shifting Global Economies – Shift Happens
 424 major cities in the world will generate
75% of the world’s GDP – 325 of these are in
Asia
 New middle class (2.5 billion by 2050) –
almost entirely in Asia / India / Africa
 50% of the world’s $1 billion companies are
headquartered in Asia – more to come

6. Globalization
 MOOCs: 101 million individuals
registered for one of 11,400 MOOCs
from 900+ universities and colleges in
2018 – 45 degrees and 826 micro
credentials available via MOOCs
 Supply chains are global – look at the
BMW Mini 300 options for exterior
trim - 15,000,000,000,000,000 possible
part combinations.
 Mini Parts delivered to Oxford Just in
Time – enough for 1 shift. 3,600
parts in a standard Mini (up to 4,875
in a Mini Cooper S) – from 47
countries.

7. Planet in Peril
 9.7 billion people on planet Earth by 2050
 If we all continue current behaviours, we will need 3 planets to
support this population
 Already experiencing challenges about water, climate, extreme
weather events – in the Middle East, longer period of hot
weather, water challenges, declining outputs from agriculture
 Environmental challenges are real and urgent

8. Rapid Advances in Technologies
 Artificial Intelligence
 3D Printing enabling adaptive manufacturing
 Stem-Cell Therapies and Gene Splicing
 Robotics
 Blockchain
 Human Implants – Cognitive Implants
 Neuroplasticity and Cognitive Science

10. Technology Will
Impact Work..
 30-40% of all current work will
be impacted by one or more of
these technologies
 Some jobs will disappear, new
jobs will emerge
 Some workers with low level
cognitive skills will not find work
 We will all have to dance with
robots and share our intelligence
with machines

11. The New Economy is
the Gig Economy
 20% of the Australian workforce are in the gig
economy – in Canada and the UK this figure is
now approaching 40%.
 Gig economy growing 12x faster than formal
employment in Canada, US and Europe
 Many millennials and iGen’s do not intend to
pursue full time work – looking for work : life
balance

12. New Forms of Organizations
 Industrial corporations are being replaced by business web organizations –
Amazon, Lfyt and Uber are more common models than Proctor and
Gamble
 Global businesses are:
 Aggregators and brokers
 Networked supply chains
 Using gig labour and smart technologies
 Moving goods and people faster than the tax authorities can find them
 Disrupting assumptions about how work gets done..
 Building fortunes on intangible assets, not traditional capital asstes
 Lasting around 20-25 years as successful firms

13. Austerity and Recession
 US, UK, Netherlands, Japan, Australia, and Canada)
and two emerging markets (China and India) will
have a $400 trillion retirement savings shortfall that
will become growingly evident and will be at crisis
point in 2050.
 Total global debt from all sources (government,
corporate, personal, etc.) is currently US$249 trillion.
 In the US, to deliver current levels of public services
(everything from education to health care to
pensions) to the projected population in 2030,
taxpayers will need to find an additional US$940
billion. In the UK, they’ll need to find another US$170
billion, and in Canada they’ll need to find another
US$90 billion.
 UAE economy healthy (debt to GDP just 17.8%) – but
all of us are vulnerable.
“We no longer have business cycles – we have debt cycles”

14. Growing
Inequality
 Canada is experiencing growing
inequality – our top 100 CEO’s
earn the average Canadian wage
($49,510) by 11:47 a.m. on
January 3—the first working day
of the year.
 During the period 1990-2016, the
top 10% of the population in the
Middle East enjoyed about 60-
66% of the region’s income.
 In Egypt, 19.1% of national
income accrues to the top 1%
— a higher rate than in oil-rich
Kuwait (17.7%).
 Social and political unrest (Arab
Spring) strongly linked to
inequality issues.

15. Identity and
Meaning
 1 in 5 in the US report being
lonely and 10% suggest that life
has “no real meaning”.
 37% of UK workers think their
jobs are pointless.
 Mental health issues – especially
for teens – growing
 Identity and meaning from work,
family, community are all
changing
 Compassion and empathy in
decline as is spirituality
 Meaning cannot be found in
“stuff” but in purpose and
compassion.

16. Higher
Education –
The Next 3-5
Years

17. New Approaches
to Assessment
 Competency based assessments
 AI enabled
 On Demand
 Stackable assessments
 Marked automatically
 Captured on blockchain

18. Artificial Intelligence
Enabled Learning Systems
 Adaptive and responsive
learning systems
 Smart relationship building
chatbots
 Automated content
generation
 Quality assurance systems
for Open Education
Resources
 Analytics

19. Simulations for
Learning
 Complex simulations for
specific skills in health,
manufacturing, services,
hospitality, flight training..
 Robots and AI together with
instruction are powerful ways
of ensuring competency
 Serious games enable critical
thinking
 Been in use for sometime,
getting better and smarter..

20. Collaborative
Learning
 Communities of inquiry as a
basis for learning are enabled by
 Social media (closed or
open)
 Platforms like Slack or
Mastery+
 Linking learners to workplaces
and professionals through RiiPEN
 Linking students worldwide
through peer to peer learning
networks

21. Challenge and
Design
 Engaging students in a challenge
where the ”answer” is unknown
enables high levels of learning
 Using all sources of knowledge,
networks and coaching to secure
an outcome
 Major new learning occurs for all,
whether they “find” an answer or
not..
 Project based learning is a
discipline – Engage – Investigate –
Act
 Ecole42 is based on this big idea

22. Immersive
Learning
 Augmented and virtual reality
enabled learning – rich
immersive experiences in a
“safe” environment
 Practice for skills – enabling
mastery and competency
 Individualized support for
learners

23. MOOCs for
Credentials
 In 2019, 111 million enrolled in
MOOCS
 11,500+ MOOC courses
 900+ course providers
 50 degrees (or equivalent)
available by MOOC in 2018
 836 micro-credentials available
via MOOCs

24. New Players
 A variety of new providers of learning
 Linked In Learning
 Squirrel uses AI and chatbot tutors
to teach across the school
curriculum and is amongst the
fastest growing companies in China.
 Many corporations use digital
badges to recognize learning
 New public:private partnerships
 AU’s Hockey MBA
 Siemens partnerships around
Mechatronics

25. Next 10 Years

26. Modular, stackable
learning
Short learning experiences
Accumulated over time
Self-directed or mentor/coach
enabled
Anytime, anywhere
Blended, in-class, online
Available on demand

27. Anytime, Anywhere Assessment for Skills
 Competency based assessment
 AI enabled and marked
 Video, audio, in person or remote
 Globally assessed

28. WORK BASED
LEARNING FOR
CREDIT
 Blurring the lines between work,
learning and accreditation.
 Prior and current learning
assessments
 Call assessment “on demand”
 Assessment only qualifications

29. Re Imagined Apprenticeship
Highly modular at the level
of skills – breaking trades
down into components
certifying each component,
stacking them and
“mix and match”.
Using online learning and
peer networks with
for the “college”
component - learning at
work for 90% of the
apprenticeship.
Competency based
assessment on demand
Degreed Apprenticeship
advanced apprenticeships
aerospace, engineering,
mechatronics, IT

30. Emerging Technologies and
Education

31. Some Think..
Devices and AI will replace teachers –
it will change how teachers-learners
and technology interact, but teaching
what makes learning meaningful and
provides purpose and connection
Technologies will lower the costs of
education – yet, technology is
expensive and must be renewed (e.g.
5G requires new devices) and has
significant environmental impacts.
Personalized learning (learnification)
will replace collaborative and peer
learning – some aspects of learning
can be pursued in isolation of others,
but evidence suggests that peer to
peer learning and the co-creation of
learning resources are key to effective
outcomes.
Data will drive better decisions
(dataficaton) – data never speaks for
itself, data always has to be interpreted
(even if by machine) and it is the
interpretation that raises concerns.

32. Five Things to Keep in Mind
 Technology aids teaching and learning, rarely does it replace teaching
– it changes what teachers do and how they interact with knowledge,
students and collaborators.
 Many technology “solutions” are technologies in search of a problem –
designed by teams with little/no experience of teaching.
 No one size technology fits all – each program / course / group of
learner/learner presents unique challenges.
 There is no such thing as “free” – time costs, people cost, activity costs
– e.g. open source software (Moodle) still is an expensive proposition.
 Increasingly, LMS systems are components of a learning eco-system
not “the system” – all LMS systems have API “hooks” enabling them to
be added to so as to build a learning eco-system.

33. Also…
Broadband is not available to all.. Hence
Aptus
The digital divide is real
Literacy remains a challenge for a
significant number of college and
university learners

35. Artificial Intelligence & Analytics

36. Key Uses of AI
& Analytics in
Education
(Current)
 Using data to create personal learning
pathways
 Chatbots – virtual assistants / instant
tutoring
 Analytics for smart intervention –
predicting needed action at key touch
points, identification key interventions
and their impacts
 Planning and data mining for
decision-making - e.g. admission,
development priorities
 Assessment – item generation,
marking
 Improving course design

37. Uses of AI & Analytics in Education (Future)
Automation of content curation
Creating content
Instant translation of learning materials, learner contributions – making globalization easier,
effective and efficient

38. 3D Printing &
Robotics

39. Uses of 3D Printing in Education
Developmental
activities using a 3D
“jig saw” – students
print components of
the jig saw at home
(body parts, engines,
chemical
components) and
then have to
assemble them. See
mysetemkits.com for
examples.
Design challenges –
students have to
design something,
manufacture it and
share their designs
with others.
Solving
mathematical and
geological problems
using pre-printed or
self-printed 3D “kits”.

40. Robotics & Education
 Robots can take many forms – forget R2D2!
 Robots enable remote connectivity and
participation – engaged students unable to
attend a session or participate in activity can be
“present” and active in labs.
 Powerful robotics in work with students with
autism
 Robot design challenges – Robot Wars, writing
scripts for robots to be used in agriculture,
engineering, health, etc.
 Drones (a form of robot) used in a range of
activities – agriculture studies, geology,
geography, science, social studies

42. 5G &
Immersive
Learning

43. What is 5G
Next generation broadband network – replacing 4G
100x faster than 4G (100 gigabits/second) – 6x faster than LTE
Lower latency (time between request for a download and action) – from waiting to instant (3x lower latency)
Will work on some current devices but will generally require 5G enabled devices (chip speed).

44. What Will 5G Enable
DRIVERLESS
CARS AND THE
INTERNET OF
THINGS (IOT) –
OVER 1 MILLION
DEVICES FULLY
DOWNLOADIN
SIMULTANEOUS
LY PER SQUARE
VERY FAST
ACCESS TO
DOWNLOADED
IMAGES,
IMMERSIVE
EXPERIENCES –
MINI-SECONDS
RATHER THAN
MINUTES.
COMPLEX
SIMULATIONS
AND IMMERSIVE
LEARNING
FASTER
AI AND 3D
PRINTING
GREATER AND
FASTER
CONNECTIVITY
WITH PEERS

45. When Will 5G
Be Available?
 Rogers intends to be the first Telco to
provide substantial access to 5G –
Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and
Vancouver in 2020, with other markets
to follow in 2021.
 Bell’s fibre network is 5G “ready” –
undertook first trial (with Nokia) in
2016 and intends to launch from 2020
through 2022
 Telus intends to begin its launch in
2020
 TeraGo will also begin its fixed line 5G
network in 2020
 Nationwide access will be complete
by 2024

46. Immersive Learning
 Imagine video glasses (or contact lenses)
which provide key information as you
undertake a task – an apprentice
completing a weld, a science student
conducting an experiment at home.
 Imagine a student exploring the Louvre or
British Museum “live” at home.
 Imagine being able to look at and repair
any car engine from your living room
 Imagine having a conversation with
Abraham Lincoln or Mahatma Gandhi
Augmented and Virtual Reality Makes These
Things Possible and 5G makes them Realistic

47. Gamification & Serious Games

48. Games Are
Good For
Learning..
Neuroscientists say gamification elements cause
feel-good chemical reactions, and improve
and problem-solving
79% of participants in a recent study say they'd be
more productive and motivated if their learning
environment was more game-like
Interactive games help adult learners increase
skills-based knowledge by 14% and retention by
9%

49. Some
Examples..
 Games which help learners
understand compliance – e.g. health
and safety, building codes
 Games which immerse learners in a
situation – e.g. a nurse in a health
challenge, a IT technician in a call
centre
 A timed quiz that challenges the
learner to respond at the same time
as millions of others (Open University,
UK)
 A sales simulation used by BMW
 Lifesaver Crisis Simulator – 3
emergency simulations developed by
the UK Resuscitation Council (e.g.
CPR).

50. Video Based Learning & Competencies

51. Video Based Learning
Mentoring through video review of activities – e.g. financial advisors, doctors, nurses.
Review of apprenticeship competencies – Valid-8 video assessment of competencies.
Peer to peer co-creation of resources – project-based learning, shared assignments.
Global learning activities – connecting learners around the world to complete challenges, collect data (e.g. climate data, food waste data), or
in shared learning.
Connecting experts to learners anywhere and at anytime
Microlearning - short skills-based videos available anytime, anywhere-

52. Implications for Higher
Education
Learning 4.0

53. Shifting
 From a focus on STEM to a recognition that we
need creativity, persuasiveness, collaboration,
time-management and adaptability and design
thinking as part of the learning agenda
 A shift from a content & teacher focused
learning systems, to learner focused systems
 A shift from “one size fits all” to a more
adaptive, personalized learning
 A shift from competition and testing to equity
and engagement
 A shift from long courses and degrees to short
modular stackable learning and skills,
competencies and capabilities
 A shift from just skills development to
developing purpose and compassion

54. Back to the
Future…
The Delors 4
Pillars
 Learning to know – a broad general
knowledge with the opportunity to work in
depth on a small number of subjects.
 Learning to do – to acquire not only
occupational skills but also the competence
to deal with many situations and to work in
teams.
 Learning to be – to develop one’s
personality and to be able to act with
growing autonomy, judgment and personal
responsibility.
 Learning to live together – by developing an
understanding of other people and an
appreciation of interdependence.

55. What Does This
Mean for a
College or
Polytechnic?
 Many points of admission - 12, 25, 365 depending on what
is to be learned and how it is to be taught.
 A new focus on the design of learning experiences – the 9S’s
and enabling blended / online learning.
 A new approach to the work of teaching – building
authentic learning and focusing on engagement
 A new approach to assessment – competency based, on-
demand
 A new approach to learning pathways – mix and match, new
“do-it-yourself” credentials, flexible stacks.
 New collaborations for work-based learning accreditation

56. Unlocking
Learning
 The 5 Keys to Unlocking Learning
 Articulating Purpose and Meaning
 Authentic Learning Resources and Activities
 Multimedia / Blended Learning
 Peer to Peer Learning and Student Creation of Content
 Reflective Learning – Diaries, Blogs and Assessment

57. Engagement
• Stimulate
• Settle
• Situate
Enlightenment
• Share
• Scaffold
• Steer
Empowerment
• Suggest
• Survey
• Strengthen
The 9S’s Of Engaged
Learning

58. Invest in People
 Invest in Faculty
 Focus on authentic and engaged learning
 Support skill development for better assessment
 Improve sensitivity to indigenous learning challenges
 Invest in Support Staff
 Develop the soft skills needed for effective learner
support
 Support their skill development in the use of analytics
and AI
 Invest in Leadership
 Develop the capacity for agile leadership
 Support innovative capacity building

59. Leverage
Technology
 Analytics for smart interventions to improve student success
 Analytics for business decisions – business intelligence
 AI for 24x7 learning support (instruction, student services,
 AI for assessment – generating items, 24x7 adaptive
assessment (formative) and assessment on demand
(summative), marking
 Video for competency-based assessment
 Augmented and virtual reality for immersive learning
 Get ready for 5G

60. New
Partnerships
with Work
Organizations
 Strengthen co-operative experiences
 Build teaching connections – partnerships for engaged
learning
 Develop meaningful work-based accreditation

61. So The Big
Picture..
 It’s a time of significant change..
 More change to come… new
global competitors, new kinds of
business enterprises, new ways
of learning
 A new global financial crisis..
 It’s what we live for, right!
 The key – focused and strategic
leadership…