3. Polling Accuracy
The two most accurate pollsters in 2008
were Rasmussen and PEW (tied).
FiveThirtyEight ranked in the top 5.
All three calculated the popular vote
breakdown to be: Obama 52% / McCain
46% ( fractions of a percentage point).
In 2004, the RCP only missed WI and in
2008, it only missed IN and NC, the two
closest states won by Obama.
Combined, the state averages were off by
just 2.8 points in 2008 and 1.9 points in
2004 – not perfect, but provide
somewhat reliable predictions for 2012.
Rather than rely on one poll alone such
as ABC/Fox, RCP averages many polls
together for more accurate results.
4. Prediction: Romney (200)
Colorado (9)
Active Registered Voter
Stats:
32% D, 34% R, 34% U
The number of
unaffiliated voters in
CO has increased by
225,000 since 2008,
making it a closer race
for each candidate
Early voter reg. stats:
37% R, 35% D
Voted Republican in 5
of the last 7 elections
Entrepreneurial,
wealthy state
Unemployment rate
above national average
5. Prediction: Romney (229)
Florida (29)
Active Reg. Voter Stats:
41% D, 36% R, 23% U
67% white, 13.5% Latino,
13.3% black
Jewish pop. account for
8% of likely voters in FL
According to the AJC,
Jewish support for
Obama in FL has dropped
from 76% to 69%, a
favorable shift for
Romney
Historically, Latino voter
turnout has been low
Estimated Romney gets
61% of white vote
Was a red state in 4 of
the last 6 elections
6. Prediction: Obama (207)
Democratic in 4 of
the last 5 elections
Unemployment rate
below the national
average
Des Moines Register
poll on Nov. 3rd
confirms that Obama
is leading in IA by +5
The state that
propelled him out of
the caucuses and
toward the
Democratic
nomination
Iowa (6)
7. Prediction: Obama (223)
Leaning Obama
In a poll by the
Detroit Free Press,
50% of respondents
said that the auto
bailout was a
deciding factor in
their vote. Obama
won the support of
67% of those votes
An Obama campaign
ad showed Romney’s
article from 2008 in
the NY Times titled
“Let Detroit go
Bankrupt”
Michigan (16)
8. Prediction: Obama (229)
Nevada (6)
RCP margin of error is
about 3% which
means that Obama’s
support actually
ranges between
47.2% and 53.2%
Frequently a swing
state; last 6 elections
it was 3x blue/3x red
Large % registered
voters – Independent
54% white, 27%
Hispanic, 9% black
Booming population
3rd most urban state
in terms of pop.
9. New Hampshire (4)
Population 94.6%
white (one of the
nation’s lowest
minority-populated
states)
30% R, 29% D, 40% U
54% of women favor
Obama (52% of likely
voters)
56% of men favor
Romney (48% likely
voters)
51% of voters aged
50+ favor Obama
(54% likely voters)
Prediction: Obama (233)
10. North Carolina (15)
Prediction: Romney (244)
Leaning Romney
Since 1980, it’s voted
red (except for 2008)
According to
Rasmussen Reports,
male voters in NC
prefer Romney by
66% to 31%, female
voters support
Obama 58% to 40%
93% of NC Reps and
22% of NC Dems
favor Romney. 77%
NC Dems favor
Obama
11. Prediction: Obama (251)
Has gone with the
winner in every
election since 1964
The largest
newspaper in OH, the
Cleveland Plain
Dealer, which has
endorsed the winner
in all but two
elections since 1964,
endorsed Obama
Unemployment rate
below the national
avg. - believes he
deserves a second
chance
Ohio (18)
12. Virginia (13)
Prediction: Obama (264)
Voted Republican in
every election since
1968, except for 2008
Fairfax County
support: In 2008,
Obama won 60% of
the vote as opposed
to McCain’s 39% (due
to Republican stance
on businesses – most
jobs in Fairfax are
from gov’t contractors
Large minority pop.,
young voters, and
suburban
independents
13. Prediction: Obama (274)
Democratic in the
last 6 elections
Unemployment rate
below the national
average
Despite the fact that
Romney’s running
mate, Paul Ryan, has
been a Republican
representative of WI
since 1999, Obama is
winning the state by
generous margins
Obama has held the
lead for the entire
month of October
Wisconsin (10)
14. Pennsylvania (20)
Prediction: Obama (294)
Since 1992, PA has
voted Democratic
In the last 60 years,
the candidate who
carried the state has
also won the national
popular vote in every
election but two.
Philadelphia suburbs
is left-leaning, driven
by women
Republicans are
linked with
opposition to
abortion /same-sex
marriage.
Polls show Obama has support from 75% of Latinos and 95% of African-Americans nationwideObama is poised to lose the white vote by 20 points this year, especially white males nationwideThe four most important swing states are Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado. Combined, these account for 69 Electoral College votes.
RCP margin of error is around 3%In the margin of error for all polls, the error is higher when there are a larger number of undecided voters. Therefore, CO may surprise us on how it votes.
Jewish population unhappy with Obama administration’s attitude towards Israel. The swing state with largest Jewish populationObama is called the least Israel friendly U.S. president to date (according to popular opinion)
Obama became uncharacteristically teary-eyed during his speech in Des Moines last night as he wrapped up his campaign.
Even though Romney’s father was a former governor of Michigan and also the CEO American Motors, Obama’s auto bailout and Romney’s murky attitude towards it has definitely fueled Obama’s lead in this state.
In the past 10 years, the African-American population grew 58% and Hispanics by 82%
Hurricane Sandy - “October Surprise” because of the impact it may have on the presidential election.One of the wealthiest states in the nation.
After Romney’s false accusations about Chrysler moving Jeep production to China, he received backlash from the auto industry for spreading untrue rumors (Bomey). Since then, the Obama campaign has used Romney’s falsehoods to depict the questionability of his judgment.
Many VA citizens in other counties are unhappy with the current economy, which is why they support Romney. At the same time, some Virginian voters don’t feel like Romney can relate to their economic struggles, causing a lack of understanding.