1. FOOD SECURITY
Concepts, Basic Facts,
and Measurement Issues
June 26 to July 7, 2006
Dhaka, Bangladesh
2. Rao 1b:
Stability of FS; Emerging
Challenges to FS
• Learning: An understanding of stability as a
constant aspect of each of the dimensions of FS, of
vulnerability and typical vulnerable groups, and of
demand. Familiarity with principal global
challenges to FS from a FAO perspective.
3. Brief Contents
• stability of FS: chronic vs transitory, temporary
vs seasonal
• vulnerability and resilience; sources of risk;
typical vulnerable groups
• the value of FS
• consumption patterns and demand determinants
• emerging challenges to FS (based on FAO,
Towards 2015/2030)
4. Stability of Food Security
• "STABILITY" of FS incorporates ability to
withstand shocks = RESILIENCE
• Lipton has introduced the concept of the ultra poor,
those who have to use 80% of their income to achieve
less than 80% of their food requirements. In fact,
households who allocate over 70% of their income to
food almost certainly have little flexibility in reallocating
resources to meet an entitlement shock.
5. Vulnerability and Resilience
• Must distinguish chronic (all the time) FIS VS.
transitory (unpredictable or periodic) FIS
• Transitory FIS further divided:
temporary (sudden shocks e.g., drought, unemployment)
seasonal (predictable e.g., lean agricultural season)
• Risk Factors
– Characteristics of Vulnerable Groups
– Variability of Entitlements
6. Vulnerable Groups
• Can be classified according to:
• Geographic - administrative zone, urban, rural
• Ecological - by climatic conditions, accessibility
• Economic - occupation, level of income, formal
or informal sector, landholding, types of crop
grown, migrant worker, female-headed household
• Demographic - male, female, pregnant, lactating,
pre-school and school-aged children, elderly.
8. Table 1.1: Sources of Risks to
Household Food Security
Sources of Entitlement Types of Risk
Natural State Market Community Other
Productive Capital (land,
machinery, tools, animals, farm
buildings, trees, wells etc.)
Non-productive capital
(jewellery, dwellings, granaries,
some animals , cash savings)
Human capital (labour power,
education, health)
Income (crops, livestock, non-
farm and non-agricultural
activity)
Claims (loans, gifts, social
contacts, social security)
9. The Value of Food Security (1):
Productive Consumption, Consumptive Production
That which is produced through consumption
[productive consumption CAPABILITY]
is that which produces consumption
[consumptive production PRODUCTION]
Production of material goods is consumption of
capability [LABOR] + material inputs [NATURE]
Consumption of material goods is production of
capability [LABOR]
10. The Value of Food Security (2):
The Consumption-Effort Link
12. Food Consumption Patterns
• ENGEL'S LAW
– Food, clothing, shelter, etc.
– Agriculture, industry, services
– “Wagner’s Law”: Rising share of government
• Changes in tastes vs. laws of consumption
14. Observed Demand Patterns and
DEMAND FORECASTING
• Income and Price Elasticities of Demand
INCOME elasticity: εD, y = (ΔD/D) ÷ (Δy/y)
PRICE elasticity: εD, p = (ΔD/D) ÷ (Δp/p)
• Three major factors in forecasting demand:
– the rate of growth of the population (n)
– the rate of growth of real per cap income (gy)
– the rate of change of real prices (gp)
15. A Formula and an Example
gF = n + εD,yg y + εD,pgp
Example:
gF = 0.015 + 0.3(0.065) – 0.2(0.1)
= 1.45%
16. Trends Through the Last Century
• Till mid-70s, world in chronic food crisis
• By mid-70s, however, peak of crisis behind
• By mid-80s, global cereal stocks almost doubled
• Long-run production growth easily outstripped
population growth
• But regional variations were highly significant
17. FAO Towards 2015/2030 (2003) &
OECD-FAO Outlook 2008-17 (2008)
• Production slowdown due to fall in demand growth,
from 2.2% (1970-2000) to projected 1.5% (2000-30)
• Feedstock demand from growing bio-energy sector
will be the most dynamic element in coming decades
• Rising share of luxury foods is another major source
that will reduce resources available for the staples
• Finding that food demand leads food supply together
with stubborn persistence of hunger and under-
nutrition well into this century underscores crucial
point that food needs go unmet because they fail to
materialize as effective market demand
18. Meeting Demand
VS Meeting Requirements
Main Finding: ...world agricultural production can grow in
line with demand, provided that the necessary national and
international policies to promote agriculture are put in place
But the issue is not whether the world can balance
Demand=Supply but whether it can balance
Requirements=Availability
That is the central challenge (or GOAL) of Food
Security.
19. Real Food Price Trends
• Most troubling forecast is expected rise in trend
of global real food prices through 2017: 18%
for wheat, 32% for coarse grains, 8% for rice,
37% for oilseeds, 55% for vegetable oils
• Both directly (from rising prices of the crops
that serve as fuel inputs)
• And indirectly (rising prices of food crops that
lose land & other resources to the fuel crops,
including the important instance of livestock
products from higher animal feed costs)
20. Effects on FS & Food
Dependence
• Sharply rising real food prices will rapidly raise share of
undernourished above the current 40%
• Since average HH expenditures on food in low-income
countries exceed 50% of income, MDG-1 (eradicate
extreme poverty and hunger) must fail
• Among the ultra poor (about one billion) who spend
60-80% on food, this could spell disaster
• Projected rise in import dependence will mean
hardships from world price volatility, foreign exchange
constraints, political vulnerability to export embargos
and economic vulnerability from export restraints that
may be invoked in times of crisis.
