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Global A2P messaging forecasts 2015-2020

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This Databook uncovers the real A2P messaging market opportunity, for the entire A2P ecosystem, from mobile operators, aggregators, service providers, and vendors. All the forecasts for the 200 countries are split out by total, grey, and white messages, and cover revenues, traffic, potential and lost revenues. It includes mobile operator spend forecasts on SMS revenue assurance platforms. And it has forecasts on average messages and revenue per subscription (split out by total, grey and white). To supplement the data, the 60-page market report provides a detailed overview of the market + key findings.

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Global A2P messaging forecasts 2015-2020

  1. 1. The latest Databook from mobilesquared@mobilesquared Global A2P messaging forecasts 2015-2020 Mobile operators key to unlocking multi-billion dollar SMS ecosystem
  2. 2. What is a Databook mobilesquared.co.uk@mobilesquared We know people don’t have time to read 200-page reports, and really just want the data. So mobilesquared has developed a series of Databooks that are data-heavy and copy-light. Our Databooks are designed to deliver comprehensive market data and forecasts, coupled with a concise, accessible short report to provide you with all the data and key top-line analysis you need to inform your business decisions. With our Databooks you can now use actual numbers in presentations and reports, and not percentages. The mobilesquared Databooks feature: • Summary market overview • Current market data + • 5-year forecast market data 2015-2020 covering the top 200 countries • Key trend analysis • Key findings covering the main areas your business needs to plan for.
  3. 3. mobilesquared.co.uk@mobilesquared The mobile operator view of the A2P messaging opportunity All data included in this presentation is from Global A2P messaging forecasts 2015-2020 Databook Published 6th July 2016
  4. 4. The mobile operator view mobilesquared.co.uk@mobilesquared *Based on mobilesquared research 3Q 2014 18.4% 8.2% 6.1% 12.2% 4.1% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 0-5% 6-10% 11-15% 16-20% 21% + By what percentage has your A2P messaging traffic changed in the last 12 months?* 49% of mobile operators believed their A2P traffic had increased over the last 12 months 6% of mobile operators believed A2P messaging had reduced over the last 12 months, leaving 44.9%to answer “Don’t know” The above pie chart implies around 60% of mobile operators believe they are monetising A2P traffic! 16.7% 13.0% 5.6% 9.3% 3.7% 0.0% 11.1% 40.7% Over the last 12 months, what percentage of your messaging traffic was A2P?* 0-5% 6-10% 11-15% 16-20% 21-30% 31-40% More than 41% Don’t know
  5. 5. The mobile operator view II mobilesquared.co.uk@mobilesquared **Based on mobilesquared research 3Q 2015 A2P messaging via operator-owned OTT apps seen as most important monetisation strategy by mobile operators in 2016. A2P messaging viewed as only the 4th most important monetisation strategy – behind IoT, M2M, and OTT app. 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 Domestic and international A2P SMS Internet of Things & M2M Portability and phone verification information (e.g. phone status, location, etc.) A2P messaging via operator-owned OTT apps Which monetization strategies do you think would be relevant for you in the next 12 months (1 not relevant, 5 highly relevant)?**
  6. 6. Slow to adopt A2P opportunity mobilesquared.co.uk@mobilesquared Based on mobilesquared research 2Q 2015-1Q 2016 Reasons mobile operators have been slow to identify the A2P messaging opportunity: • focused on countermeasures against OTT players: protecting P2P messaging revenues and not driving the A2P messaging opportunity • unwilling to accept the low A2P messaging rates • blinded by mutual forgiveness and reliant on mutual balance between inbound and outbound traffic, previously applied to P2P SMS • Decision-making hampered by messaging teams split across multiple internal divisions, and/or staffing shortages • Unwilling to invest in messaging infrastructure. Majority of mobile operators entrenched in SMS revenue protection mode, yet to transition to A2P growth mode.
  7. 7. Mobile operator A2P commitments mobilesquared.co.uk@mobilesquared Based on mobilesquared research 2Q 2015-1Q 2016 A grey area is the number of mobile operators the A2P industry believes have invested in an SMS revenue assurance platform25%-33% 3%-10% is the number of mobile operators the A2P industry believes have actually locked down their network and truly capitalising on A2P messaging opportunity Mobilesquared forecasts the number of mobile operators that will invest in a 2012+ SMS revenue assurance platform between 2015 and 2020 will increase by 250%.
  8. 8. mobilesquared.co.uk@mobilesquared Global A2P messaging forecasts overview, 2015-2020
  9. 9. Total A2P revenues, global ($) mobilesquared.co.uk@mobilesquared - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Billions Africa Asia Caribbean East Europe Latin America Middle East North America Oceania West Europe Global A2P messaging market worth $17.2 billion in 2016, rising to $58.7 billion in 2020. A CAGR of 36%. Asia will account for 49% of the revenues in 2016, falling to 43% by 2020.
  10. 10. Total A2P messages, global mobilesquared.co.uk@mobilesquared Total global A2P messages sent in 2016 will be 1.6 trillion, rising to 3.4 trillion in 2020. A CAGR of 21%. Asia will account for 68% of traffic in 2016, falling to 64% by 2020. North America will account for 15%of traffic in 2016, increasing to 17%in 2020. - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Billions Africa Asia Caribbean East Europe Latin America Middle East North America Oceania West Europe
  11. 11. A2P messages per subscription mobilesquared.co.uk@mobilesquared 188.46 2016 Annual 15.70Monthly 0.52Daily 375.75 31.31 1.03 2020 By 2020, on average, every mobile subscription in the world will be receiving 1 A2P message per day. Top 10 A2P countries 2016, by traffic 1. China 2. India 3. USA 4. Indonesia 5. Brazil 6. Russia 7. Bangladesh 8. Thailand 9. Philippines 10. UK
  12. 12. Grey vs white route traffic mobilesquared.co.uk@mobilesquared - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Billions White traffic Grey traffic Top 10 grey markets 2016, by traffic 1. China 2. India 3. USA 4. Indonesia 5. Brazil 6. Russia 7. Bangladesh 8. Pakistan 9. Thailand 10. Philippines 65% 56% 46% 37% 28% 19%
  13. 13. Total grey traffic, global mobilesquared.co.uk@mobilesquared - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Billions Africa Asia Caribbean East Europe Latin America Middle East North America Oceania West Europe Total grey route traffic will fall 8% during forecast period from 897.4billion to 649billion. Developed messaging markets will see a declinein grey route traffic during forecast period. Emerging mobile markets will experience increasein grey route traffic during the forecast period.
  14. 14. Total white traffic, global mobilesquared.co.uk@mobilesquared - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Billions Africa Asia Caribbean East Europe Latin America Middle East North America Oceania West Europe White route traffic will account for 44% of total A2P messages by the end of 2016, and 81% by 2020, due to an acceleration of investment by mobile operators. White route traffic will increase from 707billion in 2016 to 2.7 trillion in 2020.
  15. 15. Total grey revenues, global ($) mobilesquared.co.uk@mobilesquared 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Billions Africa Asia Caribbean East Europe Latin America Middle East North America Oceania West Europe Grey route traffic will generate $3.3 billion in 2016, falling to $2.4billion by 2020. A CAGR of -7%. Asia will account for 51% of grey route traffic revenues in 2020, Latin America 15%and Africa 10%.
  16. 16. Total white revenues, global ($) mobilesquared.co.uk@mobilesquared - 10 20 30 40 50 60 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Billions Africa Asia Caribbean East Europe Latin America Middle East North America Oceania West Europe White route traffic will generate $13.9 billion in 2016, jumping to $56.3billion by 2020. A CAGR of 42%. Asia will account for 43% of white route traffic revenues in 2020, North America 23%and West Europe 15%.
  17. 17. Grey vs white revenues, global ($) mobilesquared.co.uk@mobilesquared - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Billions Total grey revenues Total white revenues White route traffic accounts for 81% of total revenues in 2016, increasing to 96% by 2020. 74% 81% 86% 90% 93% 96%
  18. 18. Lost revenues, global ($) mobilesquared.co.uk@mobilesquared By applying white route prices to grey route traffic, or if all grey route traffic was converted into white route traffic, it would generate an additional $14.6 billion in 2016, falling to $11.4 billion in 2020. Based on the above principle, between 2015 and 2020 the revenue leakage attributed to grey route traffic is worth $82.1 billion. - 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Billions
  19. 19. Total market potential, global ($) mobilesquared.co.uk@mobilesquared If all grey route traffic was converted into white route traffic, the global A2P messaging marketing would be worth $31.8 billion in 2016, leaping to $70.1 billion in 2020. - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Billions white revenues Converted grey revenues
  20. 20. What is a databook mobilesquared.co.uk@mobilesquared The Global A2P messaging forecasts 2015-2020 databook contains comprehensive market data and forecasts covering 200 markets worldwide, coupled with a concise, accessible 60-page report to provide you with all the data and key top-line analysis you need to inform your business decisions. The Global A2P messaging forecasts 2015-2020 databook includes: • Annual A2P messaging traffic, 2015-2020 • Annual A2P grey messaging traffic, 2015-2020 • Annual A2P white messaging traffic, 2015-2020 • Average A2P traffic per subscription per month, 2015-2020 • Average A2P grey traffic per subscription per month, 2015-2020 • Average A2P white traffic per subscription per month, 2015-2020 • Annual A2P messaging traffic revenues, 2015-2020 • Annual A2P grey messaging traffic revenues, 2015-2020 • Annual A2P white messaging traffic revenues, 2015-2020 • Annual A2P messaging potential revenues, 2015-2020 • Annual A2P messaging lost revenues, 2015-2020 • Average A2P revenue per subscription per month, 2015-2020 • Average A2P grey revenue per subscription per month, 2015-2020 • Average A2P white revenue per subscription per month, 2015-2020 • Global mobile subscriptions 2015-2020 With our databooks you can now use actual numbers in presentations and reports, and not percentages. Cost: £1,250 / $1,661 / €1,490
  21. 21. Find out more @mobilesquared www.mobilesquared.co.uk databooks@mobilesquared.co.uk Tel: +44 (0) 118 380 1601 Published 6th July 2016 For more information: www.mobilesquared.co.uk/buy-databooks/

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