Join our crystal ball. What do you see?

3. Outlook
2

4. Think about all the change that has occurred in the past 10 years—from the
societal to the individual, from the economic to the technological. These
changes have not just affected the enterprise, they’ve redefined it. And of
course, the rate of change is only accelerating.
3

5. So, what will a successful enterprise look like in
15 years? Or 10? Or even 5?
How will it interact with customers, engage partners and
empower employees? How might its business models,
operating principles and organizational structures differ
from today’s enterprise?
4

6. To imagine the future of the enterprise, we must
understand the forces that are transforming our world
and the technological innovations that are shaping
the future. How will our professional and
personal lives be different? And in what
new and unexpected ways will technology
work for us?
Individually, we are at best nearsighted to
changes that will affect the enterprise
in 2020 and beyond.
5

7. But if we gather thousands of thinkers from the enterprise
community, provoke one another to discuss the global,
social, business and technological trends that are beginning
to emerge—and help each other arrive at some consensus
—then each of us will be better prepared not only to bring
the challenges of the future into focus, but also to help our
organizations do the same.
6

8. Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort to imagine,
discuss and debate the future of the enterprise.
This six-month experiment—presented by HP and
driven by the enterprise visionaries, industry leaders
and technology experts who make up our community
of customers—will result in a full-length, cloud-enabled
book about what it will take for enterprises to succeed
in 2020 and beyond.
7

9. Together, we will examine trends, challenge assumptions
and ultimately drill down to the very issues that matter most
—to the boardroom, the applications team, the marketing
department, the IT operations center and the CIO’s office.
8

10. I.1 Community Discussion Highlights
Changes ahead
differently depending on the device. And, context would travel
between devices.”
Luigi Tiano sees the tablet becoming the de facto device for most
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community computing: “In my opinion, the tablet will become a commodity (it's on its
members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after way) and it will become the standard tool for most individuals,” he writes.
it’s published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the “Smart phones are great for a ‘quick fix,’ but I’m not sure they give us that
community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. ability to perform ‘heavy work.’”
What will the enterprise of 2020 look like? This question–and the A cloudy future
questions that spawn from the myriad answers–is what this
community-sourced project endeavors to answer. Obviously, no For all the conversation around devices, the ability to have access
one answer is correct; no one can see the future. But the ideas anytime, anywhere is still of utmost importance. Indeed, it is driving a
generated from the Enterprise 20/20 community can help lead us number of conversations around cloud computing, including whether it is
down the path. the technology of the future.
“I think that the "apps of the future" will be multi-client. They will Community member beemaraj believes the cloud’s usefulness in about
support One premise–that TVs, smartphones and other devices 15 years: “Cloud will remain for another decade and its successor can be
as we know them will disappear, and the “smartphone of the expected around 2025.” Luigi Tiano agrees, although doesn’t believe the
future will be in your brain”–generated much conversation among cloud will “go away”: “I am a strong believer that the cloud will continue to
community members, who for the most part believe we always will grow until it becomes the standard for both organizations and
need some form of physical device in our daily lives. individuals,” he notes. “The name may change to something less
ambiguous, but the concept will remain the same.”
“I think that the "apps of the future" will be multi-client. They will
support smartphones, tablets, laptops and where appropriate and “Much of it depends on your definition of ‘cloud,” says Charles Bess. “If it
increasingly, the TV,” notes Mike Shaw. “The client would behave means increased flexibility in the consumption of abundant resources,
9

11. I.1 Community Discussion Highlights
then it will be with us for a long time and part of whatever is to come. If
you view it as a more limited IaaS capability, than there is the whole
flexible value stream of IaaS->PaaS->SaaS->BPO->Consulting that
provide more capability and additional flexibility where it can
be adopted.”
“ I am a strong believer that the cloud
will continue to grow until it becomes
the standard for both organizations
and individuals.” – Luigi Tiano
Other technologies may come and go by 2020, but most community
members agree cloud computing is a technology whose time has
come–and will be around for the long haul.
Go to the next Community Discussion page
10

12. World
When you think of 2020 what comes to mind? For
some, “20/20” means perfect vision. For others,
2020 is a not-too-distant point in the future, just far
enough to be somewhat fuzzy—or, depending on
your point of view, completely obscure.
11

13. I.2 World
Imagining the world of tomorrow means looking
at the world of today, learning from the lessons
of others, and being open to challenging
new ideas. Here are six trends we think will
shape our world by 2020
12

14. I.2 World
1 Young and old, more people will
live on and shape our planet.
Between now and 2020, nearly 1 billion youth will reach adulthooda. Enterprise implications
This next generation of parents, leaders, workers and educators will The digital youth entering the workforce will expect what today’s digital
find themselves surrounded by more people. Older people, younger natives expect: intuitive, 24x7 mobile access to information and the
people, richer and poorer people. use of social tools to improve their effectiveness.
Many of these people will come of age in developing nations. But what Active seniors will bring valuable experience to the workforce, provided
will be different is that they will have grown up more aware of their we design flexible environments (virtual or mobile offices) and apply
world, connected through media and mobility to a global grid and a our ingenuity to delivering effective and efficient health care.
context to match.
To address the consumer preferences of the social media-savvy
And with the exposure will come the desire for change – for access to generation, enterprises will need to extract meaning from the massive
more and better goods and services, education, opportunities and amounts of text, video and audio content that exists. And targeting
healthier, richer lives. consumers, while negotiating their strong desire for privacy, will require
smarter analytics and more computing power than ever before.
Simultaneously, we’ll see the graying of the population in so-called
developed countries. In total we’ll have nearly 7.6 billion people,
including 23% more people over 75 years old, 30% more people over
80 years old and 58% more over 90 years oldb. These seniors will be
more active and will work longer whether because of better health,
financial need or personal passion.
13

15. I.2 World
Moscow
11,730,000 Tokyo
Los Angeles
37,280,000
13,250,000 New York City
Rise of the Mega Cities 1 20,430,000 Osaka
16 of the largest 20 cities 11,530,000
of 2020 are in today’s Cairo Shanghai
developing nations 14,020,000 12,630,000
Developing Highly Developed
Mexico City Istanbul
21,810,000 12,760,000
Projected total of growth %, 2006 TO 2020 Karachi
18,940,000
Tokyo 4.9%
Mumbai 37.9% Delhi
Delhi 61.4%
Dhaka 68.3% São Paulo 25,830,000
Mexico City 13.4% 21,570,000 Rio de Janeiro
SãoPaulo 15.9%
Lagos Mumbai
13,230,000
Lagos 83.7% 21,510,000 25,970,000 Metro Manila
Jakarta 51.9% Dhaka 13,400,000
NewYork 9.6%
Karachi 55.2% 22,040,000
Calcutta 27.3%
Buenos Aires 14.5% Buenos Aires
Cairo 24.2% 15,480,000
Metro Manila 24.0%
Los Angeles 8.4% Jakarta
Rio de Janeiro 13.8% Calcutta
Istanbul 27.5%
20,770,000
Shanghai 0.0% 18,540,000
Moscow 8.4%
Osaka 1.8%
14

16. I.2 World
2 The middle class in developing
countries will redefine markets.
In parallel to population growth, we’ll see a marked shift in the balance The shifting middle classes2
of economic power. Western tastes and influences will no longer Global top 10 consuming middle classes (Global share of purchasing power parity)
dominate the world consumer goods market, as the buying power
2009 2020 2030
of middle classes in China, India, Brazil, and Russia booms. United States 21% China 13% India 23%
United States 12%
Japan 8%
China 18%
India 11%
Germany 6%
France 4%
Japan 6%
United Kingdom 4%
Germany 4% United States 7%
Russia 4%
Russia 3%
China 4% Indonesia 4%
France 3%
Italy 3%
Indonesia 3% Japan 4%
Mexico 3%
Mexico 3%
Russia 3%
Brazil 3%
Germany 2%
Mexico 2%
Brazil 2%
France 2%
15

17. I.2 World
We should expect to see global tastes in fashion and entertainment Enterprise implications
more influenced by these newly dominant economies. The increasing As more countries challenge the West’s economic power, enterprises
connectedness of our 20/20 world will have a major impact on the rate everywhere must rapidly react, plug into and reach the newly dominant
at which attitudes and tastes from one culture assimilate globally. cultures in the world of 2020.
“Likes” will promote Chinese pop artists, Indian fashion labels, and
Russian consumer goods at a rate unimagined to advertising Success will require a blend of hiring people who grew up in these
executives from the previous century, buoyed by pride in local heroes, growth economies as well as flexible and adaptable business
styles and products, and social networks combined with digital reach processes that develop products, services and messages to meet local
connecting millions. preferences, tastes and needs.
Enterprises will require advanced analytics and flexible business
processes (most likely comprised of cloud-based services) to adapt to
rapidly emerging and varying market opportunities.
16

18. I.2 World
3 Resource scarcity will make us
more resourceful.
Necessity breeds invention. Scarcity of natural resources, from energy
and water to precious metals to arable land, will be starting points for
Population growth and the rise
innovation. Population growth and the rise of the middle class is driving of the middle class is driving
consumption around the globe.
consumption around the globe.
As our existing resources become scarcer and more expensive, we will
find new ways to improve our lives and the health of our world,
knowing that failure will lead to austerity, or worse.
Enterprise implications
Enterprises will capitalize on new product and services opportunities in
We foresee our society innovating new means of energy production,
existing markets that are challenged by resource scarcity. Already,
creating more comfortable and energy-efficient housing options to
venture capitalists are betting billions of dollars on new energy
support our ongoing migration to cities, and eliminating shortages of
concepts, and enterprises will apply new techniques to improve yields
educated workers by using the Internet to boost literacy rates and
on everything from agricultural production to resource extraction.
marketable skills.
For internal improvement, enterprises will employ energy- and water-
efficient strategies even as they grow compute, storage and network
capacity to meet the growing demands of an increasingly digital
populace and business environment. Increased use of cloud computing
will provide flexibility to tap spare capacity with limited waste.
17

19. I.2 World
4 Most of us
will live in cities.
Urban areas will be home to more than 60% of the world’s population In particular, they hold the promise of lower carbon footprints per
by 2020c, up from about 50% in 2007d. This includes more than 70 dweller and convenient physical access to services including
cities with more than 5 million residents and more than 25 megacities education, health care and transportation. Also, the population density
with 10 million-plus residentse. of cities makes access to high-bandwidth Internet more affordable to
provide and consume, which in turn provides convenient digital access
Cities have their problems, including the potential for inadequate to goods, services and markets.
housing, congestion and pollution. But well-run cities have attributes
that will improve living conditions and our planet over time.
18

20. I.2 World
Enterprise implications
Increasingly, high-bandwidth access to over half of the world’s
population provides numerous opportunities for enterprises:
• Enterprises will engage and interact with customers (and citizens) in
rich, expressive, multi-media experiences 24x7. Imagine consumers
around the globe trying your latest athletic shoe in a digital 3D
augmented-reality experience.
• Enterprises will design rich virtual working environments to engage
the best and brightest employees or contractors – wherever
they reside.
• At the same time government agencies and businesses alike will
need to bring design and technology solutions to improve housing
and transportation systems, solve traffic gridlock, to increase energy
efficiency of buildings and find ways to use mobile and other
solutions to serve the 40% still in towns and rural areas. The use of
sensors to manage traffic flow and lighting in cities has already
started, but should be even more intelligent with the technologies
emerging by 2020.
19

21. I.2 World
5 We’ll lose our village connections,
but gain cyber connections.
Our connectedness and the pervasiveness of information continue to Enterprise implications
have positive impact. Social media is increasingly informing marketing Increasingly, enterprises will amplify their intellectual property by
and new product development, but it is also widely credited as a major creating virtual value chains of specialists—contractors, small
facilitator of the Arab Spring of 2011. businesses, other enterprises—that can help them take ideas to value
rapidly. Social collaboration and the cloud will enable these virtual value
In 2020 we’ll see it in even wider use to connect people with their chains to rapidly assemble, collaborate and realize new market
personal and professional contacts, as well as communities of interest, opportunities, then dissolve and reintegrate around the next opportunity.
businesses and governments. People will increasingly take advantage
of bandwidth enhancements to express themselves in rich multimedia Sentiment analysis across social networks will help elected officials and
without being constrained by character counts. marketers stay in touch with the citizens and markets they serve. In
addition, use of social networks to support election candidates will be
Yet there will be tension as increasingly busy lives and the deluge of commonplace around the globe.
information threaten to overload our brains. The digitally savvy
citizens of 2020 will appreciate the people, enterprises and Enterprises will need to make sure they engage effectively—in a timely
government agencies who engage selectively and intelligently helping and targeted fashion. The replacement of text-based social
them balance the glut of information with their poverty of attention. communications (SMS, tweets) with video messages at global scale will
necessitate the use of advanced analytics that render a precise
understanding of the meaning and sentiment embedded in unstructured
information. The popularity of video as a communication medium will
also drive demand for more compute, network and storage capacity.
20

22. I.2 World
6 We will wrestle with our often
conflicting needs for security,
privacy and open access to
information.
As we share more of our personal data across social network sites, In 2020, the threat of identity misuse
online retail, banking, utilities and municipal services in 2020, the
threat of identity misuse and cyber crime will be ever present. Sensors and cyber crime will be ever present.
we wear to monitor our health and that line the streets to control traffic
as well as the mobile devices we carry will feed millions of updates to
systems that can be used for good — or misused for ill.
Regulators will try to protect the populace from cyber criminals, rogue
Businesses and governments will try to balance the demands of traders and nefarious corporations. Executives will be held personally
customers and citizens for constant access to information while responsible for managing the tradeoffs between ensuring the welfare
maintaining appropriate security and privacy controls. But hackers, of their customers, employees and personal reputations, and
cyber criminals and cyber terrorists will continue to troll for new ways leveraging the value of personal information.
to target organizations with denial of service attacks and data theft.
21

23. I.2 World
Hackers, cyber criminals and cyber
terrorists will continue to troll for new
ways to target organizations.
Enterprise implications
Boards and enterprises that haven’t already done so will appoint C-level
executives to manage security, privacy, risk and compliance.
Commercial and government organizations will outsource sensitive
IT processes to secure cloud providers. These providers will employ
former national intelligence specialists to continuously monitor and
safeguard information at every level from infrastructure through to
software applications.
We will find new ways to help customers, employees and citizens
understand and make tradeoffs between access and security.
22

24. I.2 Community Discussion Highlights
Communication
“Although some countries have announced a national broadband plan,
access to ICT is still limited in many places in the world,” writes Luis
Minoru Shibata. “ICT access in the metropolitan or main urban areas
breakdown around the world is evolving. However, the lack of infrastructure and/or
the limited purchasing power of consumers in other areas may create a
huge gap in the society.”
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members,
and their comments help shape each chapter well after it’s published. Other community members believe currently underdeveloped countries
On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and will “leapfrog” into ubiquitous access using alternative technologies. “I'm
highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. sure we will get there by 2020. If we see the speed at which things have
moved forward over the last 5 years, I cannot imagine we have not
resolved the technical issues by then. And the emerging countries will be
htt
Members of the Enterprise 20/20 community believe many of the
trends discussed in this section will impact the advancement of first as they are not stopped by old infrastructure,” notes
technology in 2020, but two of the most popular topics emerging Christian Verstraete.
were whether information and communications technology will be
more widespread globally by 2020 and how different societies and “An interesting question that may develop: Will the definition of ICT
HHHHHHHHHHHHH
cultures impact the enterprises of their respective countries. change so that it is available everywhere?,” asks Charles Bess. “Or will it
HHHHHHHHHHHHH
Opinions were spirited on both sides of the fence. change in the other direction, increasing in capabilities and requirements
to the point where it is available to an ever more concentrated group of
people (e.g., urbanites)?”
Glass is half full
When posed the question, “Will ICT be available and accessible to
ICT: Glass half empty
all anywhere in 2020?” some community members see a future
where information and communications technology will be more Still others took a pessimistic view of the future. “There will always be
widespread than today, but the accessibility of technology will be some regions with lower access [and] it could become worse in future,
based as much on financial benefit as on population densities. but this is a natural behavior ... We should not forget that the requirement
23

25. I.2 Community Discussion Highlights
in bandwidth and quality should probably be few orders of magnitude will grow up in a more global society,” he writes. “New generations will be
higher to support the internet of objects,” writes Patrick DeMichel. agnostic to cultural differences.”
The effects of culture on enterprises Horia Slusanschi, meanwhile, is more circumspect: “The main obstacle in
global enterprises that impedes cultural harmonization is a lack of
While the future of widespread global ICT seems fuzzy, community
awareness,” he writes.
members were more definitive in their opinions of the “Impact of
prevalent mindsets in different societies, cultures and countries
on enterprises.” Indeed, they note, the global economy is forcing
many enterprises to adopt and adapt to meet the needs of all their
“ When it comes to diversity, it is
customers, both local and international.
somewhat inaccurate to look at global
“Obviously all these differences [between countries] have an impact on
how to run a business in a certain country,” notes Dennis Kruegel. trends while ignoring local ones.”
“And especially for global companies this is obviously a big challenge
– James McGovern
in terms of successfully accessing the various markets and engage
employees with totally different backgrounds.”
James McGovern agrees: “When it comes to diversity, it is somewhat Both discussions highlight the importance of communication to the
inaccurate to look at global trends while ignoring local ones. ... We live success of any enterprise. Whether it’s the ability to communicate via
in local societies where we tend to travel in circles of people who share information and communications technology or communicating with an
attributes similar to our own.” increasingly global marketplace, enterprises must rise to the occasion to
ensure their voice is heard.
Paul van Ingen, meanwhile, believes the benefit of a globally
connected society will impact younger employees the most. “Though
there of course are cultural differences, behaviors and preferences in
Go to the next Community Discussion page
different parts of the globe, I really believe that new generations
24

26. Technology
“How can I help you?” This phrase sums up technology in 2020—systems that will work
alongside us, helping us to maximize scarce resources, to process the deluge of sensor-
and human-generated information and to gain insights to make progress rapidly.
25

27. I.3 Technology
Looking at technologies that may be available by
2020, and considering how they’ll help us realize our
fullest potential, is how we’ll solve the challenges of
the next decade.
26

28. I.3 Technology
1 Cognitive systems as
human partners.
Autonomous transportation systems will manage vehicle flow through a
megacity of 20 million people. This will be made possible by combining
a vast array of traffic sensors, advanced real-time analytics and the
immense computing power required to perform cognitive decision
making on the fly and at scale.
Enterprise implications
As we increase our population densities, we must manage the systems
that support us. We must know “what’s happening out there” in detail.
And we must optimize our systems so that we don’t waste resources
while striving to improve our quality of life (one without shortages and
huge delays).
We will see these cognitive systems used to manage utilities, emergency
services and crime prevention. We’ll also see ultra-optimized supply
chains where we know the position of every item in the chain.
27

29. I.3 Technology
2 Computation
re-imagined.
The amount of data in the world is set to increase by 44 times from
2009 to 2020f. This is due to the growth in unstructured data and the
widespread use of sensors to tell us “what’s going on out there.”
Gathering all this data, analyzing it and then interacting with a world
of mobile humans is not possible with today’s computing and
network technology.
By 2020, new computer/storage blocks will allow us to take in and
process huge amounts of data in real time. And networks, especially
mobile networks, will be faster and able to securely handle the 33-
fold increase in traffic we will see from 2010 to 2020g.
The amount of data in the world
is set to increase by 44 times from
2009 to 2020.
28

30. I.3 Technology
Enterprise implications
Our development systems must evolve to program arrays of hundreds
of thousands of processors optimally.
Our existing IT management systems won’t scale to manage such
environments. IT management in 2020 will be very good at flexing —
adjusting to peak demands that could be 20, 50 or 100 times the
normal run rate.
These systems must also be self-healing. We see this technology
evolving today with run-book automation; but to handle the systems of
2020, self-adjusting and self-healing must be programmed in during
development, not bolted on after release.
IT management in 2020 will be very
good at flexing - adjusting to peak
demands that could be 20, 50 or
100 times the normal run rate.
29

31. I.3 Technology
3 Insights to
help humans.
By 2020, robotic medical assistants will make the hospital rounds,
detecting signals from sensors attached to patients. These assistants
will talk to “medi-cloud” systems that process the information to provide
insights and alerts to medical staff.
We will augment and enhance our existing businesses by better
understanding our customers and the changes in our markets. We will
invent entirely new businesses by exploiting information at a velocity
and on a scale that was previously unattainable. In the two decades
preceding 2020, some of the most successful Internet search, social
networking and gaming companies were built on the foundation of real-
time analytics of large-scale data.
30

32. I.3 Technology
As data continues to expand through increased human usage, people
will increasingly value the time savings and convenience afforded by a
system that understands our current needs and then, via micro-
segmentation, targets content and offers based on those precise
needs. By 2020, our scarcest resource will be our own attention spans.
These systems will focus us on the things that are important.
By 2020, our scarcest resource will
be our own attention spans.
Enterprise implications
Product and service designers will need to design systems that:
• Determine the human user’s current situation
• Understand precisely what the person wants; and
• Use powerful analytical ability to make highly focused and
insightful suggestions.
31

33. I.3 Technology
32

34. I.3 Technology
4 Personalizing the power
of the cloud.
By 2020, most of us will have mobile devices. These devices will be Mobile traffic multiplies6
able to see what we are looking at, understand our gestures and Mobile traffic forecast in EB (exabytes)
(1 EB = 1,000,000 terabytes)
reliably know what we are asking. Yet they will lack the elastic, 2020
scalable computing power and linkages to huge stores of 127 exabytes
unstructured and sensor data that the back-end cloud will have.
2010
3.8 exabytes
33X INCREASE
33

35. I.3 Technology
This combination of advanced mobile front-ends and analysis-capable By 2020, our mobile devices will
back-end cloud capability, however, will mean that applications will
know our wants and needs — in some cases, even before we do. be able to display 3D for us.
Today, our mobile devices present information and conclusions to us in
a way that is flat — literally. Humans can reason in 3D much more
readily, because that’s how we interact with the physical world. By
Enterprise implications
2020, our mobile devices will be able to display 3D for ush.
Applications will be based on a client/cloud model. These applications
will support a range of clients — mobile, smart TV, gaming device or
For example, an architect works with an architectural cloud service via laptop. The applications will connect to domain-specific back ends like
her mobile device. The resulting design is projected in 3D by the the aforementioned architecture cloud. We will be able to move from
mobile device. Such technology is already in use for cancer drug mobile to smart TV to laptop seamlessly — the cloud service will
design — but it’s very expensive and most certainly not mobile. remember our state as we “client hop,” and the application will scale
our capabilities to match our current client.
34

36. I.3 Technology
5 Dynamic
services.
By 2020, many more business opportunities will be served by clusters
of affiliated specialists — individual consultants or small businesses
that join together to bring a product or service to market. Take, for
example, the explosion of mobile apps in this decade — frequently
they’re built not by large integrated companies, but by an entrepreneur
who contracts out the design, animation, programming and back-end
cloud services to various experts who coalesce to create and deliver
the app. People will increasingly work as “free agents” or will form into
clusters of small-to-midsize businesses (SMBs). In order to create
products and deliver services, these dynamic mosaics of specialists
will be linked by advanced collaboration tools.
The business processes that IT delivers will likewise be mosaics —
mosaics linked by process management and integration technology.
CIOs will thus become innovators, designing business processes and
orchestrating services (as well as architecting the reliability, security
and cost/performance of these processes and services).
35

37. I.3 Technology
Enterprise implications Service providers that offer cloud services to support SMBs will evolve.
The speed with which teams can be formed from pools of affiliated They will provide aggregation services allowing SMBs to simply “plug
specialists will be a competitive advantage to the enterprise, as will be in and go,” creating fully functioning companies within a day.
the degree to which groups are creative and productive. The enterprise
thus needs to ensure it has excellent tools and processes to support Cloud will become common, secure and reliable. This will allow IT to
such working methods. evolve from being a support function to becoming a key participant in
business teams. Highly geared business process and application
design tools, coupled with a rich array of cloud services, will allow IT to
quickly create solutions that give the business competitive advantage.
People will increasingly work as This will require a change of skills in the IT department, from people
focused on operations, to people with skills at the intersection between
“free agents” or will form into business analyst and IT designer.
clusters of small-to-midsize We believe this is an exciting time for IT—the ability to inject
businesses (SMBs). competitive advantage into business teams will mean that IT is highly
valued by the business.
36

38. I.3 Technology
6 Cyber-physical
Systems.
A pharmaceutical factory control system uses an array of sensors to Cyber-physical systems will account
conserve water, energy and material used in its factory. The system
reduces waste produced by the factory and ensures adherence to all for an increasing proportion of
relevant eco-compliance levels.
building, factory and vehicle costs
By 2020, we will all be acutely aware of the limits on our physical
resources — water, energy, minerals and food. We will employ cyber- as well as value.
physical systems (systems built from and based on the synergy of
physical and computational components) to better control our effect on
the environment and our use of resources.
Enterprise implications
We will use them in buildings, transportation and factories. They will Many products in 2020 will have a high cyber-physical content. We are
reduce the waste of spoilage in food and pharmaceuticals. already seeing this in cars — the start-stop and temperature-control
systems in engines have increased energy efficiency. But construction,
food production and pharmaceutical companies of the future must use
these systems too. Cyber-physical systems will account for an
increasing proportion of building, factory and vehicle costs as well
as value.
37

39. I.3 Technology
7 Security and
privacy.
In a world where everyone is connected, where there are 1 trillion
sensors and huge increases in the amount of data being stored and
analyzed, today’s security systems won’t be able to protect our privacy
or keep us safe from determined cyber attackers.
By 2020, security systems will be more adaptive and dynamic in order
to automatically thwart attacks from an ever-increasingly sophisticated
threat landscape. Security systems will harness intelligence to
proactively anticipate and take action against cyber threats – they will
find risk before it finds you.
Security systems will harness
intelligence to proactively anticipate
and take action against cyber threats.
38

40. I.3 Technology
Security topics that’ll keep us up at night7
The top security and risk management concerns of today’s Senior IT Executives for 2020
Extremely concerned Somewhat concerned Not very concerned
67% 66% 63% 54% 51% 46%
Data privacy Lack of skilled resources Risk associated with Intermingling of Disruption caused Failure to seize on
and information to effectlvely manage increased consumption of personal and business by natural or the latest technology
breaches security application and IT technology man-made disasters to protect
services across public, systems and data
private and hybrid cloud
39

41. I.3 Technology
Enterprise implications Whatever your decision, one thing is certain: The proportion of effort
Security and privacy have implications at the inter-government level. the enterprise has to spend on ensuring privacy and security is going
With ubiquitous sensors, precisely how much personal information to increase by 2020.
should be stored or gathered? If everything is RFID tagged, for
example, an individual can determine when and where you bought
your clothes, your watch, your briefcase and your mobile device. Do
you really want someone to be able to do that?
40

42. I.3 Community Discussion Highlights
Rafal Los writes, “Technology as of right now isn't the challenge. We're not
See change or lacking technologies, innovations, or inventions - it's the application thereof
that is lacking...”
sea change? Nick Peterson believes technological change occurs more out of consumer
desire than necessity, creating a vicious cycle of supply and demand. “I
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, think current technology will enable more and more demand for innovation
and their comments help shape each chapter well after it’s published. based not on necessity of society, but based on the realization that society
On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and wants more and thus it is the desire that is driving the change more than a
highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. need,” he writes.
htt
Technology plays a vital role in the future of the enterprise, from the Charles Bess, meanwhile, believes neither necessity or technology itself will
way products and services are developed to the way end users effect change; rather, it will be those closest to the technology – either the
consume them. The Enterprise 20/20 community views technology creators or the users. “When you look at the forcing change in a world
as the source of both opportunities and challenges as we move defined by inertia, it is the passion of the change agent that starts the ball
ever closer to a truly connected society. rolling,” he writes. “If they can gather others around that change it becomes
HHHHHHHHHHHHH a movement – the market pays attention to movements.”
HHHHHHHHHHHHH
But what will spur the most innovative of technology changes? Will
necessity breed technology changes, or vice versa? Community Which vertical will spawn greatest tech change?
members viewed this question not as a chicken-or-egg problem, but
rather an opportunity to discuss how technology and necessity will Perhaps the larger question posed to the Enterprise 20/20 community,
both be the problem and the solution. Which vertical market will spawn the greatest technological changes?,
helped members synthesize their views on where technology will come
“Personally I see it as a lifecycle or a feedback system, which would from, and where it is going. While the larger verticals – education,
make the answer "both, continuously," says Matt Groeninger, while healthcare, financial services and government – were areas of focus for
41

43. I.3 Community Discussion Highlights
community members, one dark horse – the entertainment industry – health issues loom larger. They (we) will want affordable, effective,
was tapped as a potential source of technological innovation. good care.”
Charles Bess believes the answer lies with the industry that stands
to lose the most. “I'd look at what verticals will be under the greatest
“ When you look at the forcing change amount of pressure – since pressure creates innovations (and
diamonds). I doubt that it will be governments, since by their very
in a world defined by inertia, it is the nature they are a monopoly,” he writes.
passion of the change agent that
The very nature of technology development – from idea to curation
starts the ball rolling.” – Charles Bess and development – relies on need and a willing consumer base to
ensure success. While we can’t predict what technology will be “the
next big thing” we can dictate which technologies will be a success.
“My vote is for the media/entertainment industry to be the leaders,” writes
Fig
James McGovern. “They have the best potential of helping visualize the Go to the next Community Discussion page
challenges we face as a society, the ability to distribute the message to
those who need to know and to target those who can help and to finally
solve the awareness challenges of technologies already in existence but
not widely known.”
“I believe healthcare will bring about huge technology change. The
industry is under pressure to curb costs; at the same time, America is
graying,” predicts community member nksinfo. “The ‘boomer’ cohort is
beginning to retire from the workplace and to reach the age where
42

44. Enterprise
Driven by world trends, and supported by new
technologies, enterprises in 2020 will differ
physically and functionally from today’s
enterprises.
43

45. I.4 Enterprise
1 We’ll work in virtual offices
on virtual teams.
The days of the grinding commute to the exurb campus or the
prestigious downtown skyscraper are numbered. Concerns about fuel
shortage and availability of land in megacities cause enterprises in 2020
to radically rethink their real-estate strategies. Ubiquitous cloud
computing has removed the need for every business to have its own
data center; bandwidth supports remote working; and the Millennial
Generation is fully attuned to being productive and cooperative without
constant physical interaction.
As discussed in the technology section, the dynamic mosaics of
specialists connected by collaboration tools become dominant in the
enterprise. The ratio of full-time employees to contracted specialists will
shift dramatically. Today we see IT departments of global corporations
staffed by a mere dozen employees; what impact will we see on other
business functions? Will we see the end of the monolithic corporation
with hundreds of thousands of full-time employees?
44

46. I.4 Enterprise
2 We’ll rely more on systems of
engagement than systems
of record.
In 2011, Geoffrey Moore published a paper detailing systems of The real-time impact of social media
engagement and their role in the future of ITi. By 2020, with
demographic shifts, access to high bandwidth and embrace of on brand reputation and the instant
social networking, systems of engagement will be mainstream,
as enterprises seek to cultivate their relationships with customers
feedback on concepts and launches
around the globe. The real-time impact of social media on brand will require full-time monitoring
reputation and the instant feedback on concepts and launches will
require full-time monitoring and analysis. and analysis.
Already cited by several sources, some enterprises will appoint Chief
Listening Officers, who will tap into social media and other
communication platforms to better understand changing customer
needs and tastes.
45

47. I.4 Enterprise
3 We’ll use data in real-time and
only preserve what’s needed.
In past decades, IT focused on accumulating more and more data in We will combine marketing, IT and legal expertise to identify what data
ERP/MRP/CRM systems and on deploying tools to mine it. must be stored; to determine how long and where to store the data;
and to find new strategies to reduce information lifecycle
Increasingly, sales and marketing teams will extract more value in the management costs.
instant from transient data in social media, web, sensor and mobile
interactions, and enterprises overall will “offshore” their data to
the cloud.
46

48. I.4 Enterprise
4 We’ll turn changing demographics
into business opportunities.
The major demographic shifts of 2020 throw new sets of customer
needs into focus. By employing managers with a cultural
understanding of Brazil, Russia, India, China and so forth, and by
capturing trends in social media, enterprises in 2020 will easily tap into
the needs of these emerging middle classes. But the more digitally
isolated and retired sectors of society represent an increasingly
profitable segment. Enterprises in 2020 need to tune in to the growing
numbers of seniors to create products and services for people who
may live in retirement for as long as they were in employment.
The more digitally isolated and
retired sectors of society represent
an increasingly profitable segment.
47

49. I.4 Enterprise
The coming POPULATION
“Gray Bubble” 8
“50-75 year olds make up a large
share of the 10% increase in 140 Million
global population by 2020,
presenting market and workforce
implications for enterprises.”
120 Million
Population by age groups, 2012
Population by age groups, 2020
100 Million
80 Million
60 Million
40 Million
20 Million
Age (years) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
48

50. I.4 Enterprise
5 We’ll finance, measure and value
our businesses differently.
The enterprise of 2020 is fundamentally different in terms of tangible
assets and direct control of labor. As the mosaic approach becomes
the norm, the CFO must be able to report on the company’s ability to
deliver ongoing value with fewer “in-house” resources. Future stock
market valuations will likely be influenced by perceptions of an
enterprise’s ability to influence social media networks and capitalize
on insight from them. Will we see some form of Klout score
for enterprises?
Finally, it will become increasingly important, and likely legislated, to
measure and report transparently on total environmental impact of
business operations.
49

51. I.4 Enterprise
What you need to succeed9
Most valuable skills and capabilities that IT Teams will need in 2020
Valuable Neutral Not valuable
Skills in helping
Business the business deal Business Process Business Services
Planning and with technology Design and IT Service Project Portfolio Requirements Agile Risk Monitoring &
Strategy complexity Communications Composition Management Management Management Development Management Assurance
50

52. I.4 Enterprise
6 We’ll manage talent
in new ways.
In previous decades, leaders and HR managers focused on employee
recruitment, development and long-term retention. In 2020, enterprises
will shift focus to engaging fluid groups of labor — “supertemps” who
will take on strategic projects for a relatively short period. The HR
leaders of 2020 must address the following questions: Who are the
“rock-star” supertemps? How do we ensure they keep data
confidential? How do we get them to come back for future projects?
How do we feel about sharing our talent with rivals? HR will evolve into
more of a community management role, doubtless supported by smart
social
In 2020, enterprises will shift
focus to engaging fluid groups
of labor - “Supertemps.”
51

53. I.4 Enterprise
7 We’ll approach the IT
function differently.
Changes in the world, technology and enterprise of 2020 promise an specialists, agilely designing and launching business processes that
interesting future for CIOs and IT leaders. Increasingly, as IT becomes take advantage of new markets, or new opportunities to serve
embedded more deeply into the business, IT leaders will bring innovation constituents in the public sector. Like the rest of the economy of 2020,
to their enterprises by mastering a digital supply chain of services and value will come less from vertical operations and more from intelligent
deployments of mosaics of services and individuals, using the latest
cloud, mobile and social collaboration technologies on top of modern
computing infrastructures.
HHHHHHHHHHHHH
HHHHHHHHHHHHH
htt
52

54. I.4 Community Discussion Highlights
When play
“With all the analytic capabilities available today, a basic behavioral
understanding can be applied to corporate objectives and goals to adjust
the behavior of the organization to align to a desired future. ... It is not
becomes work about making things "fun" but instead of changing behavior in a goal-
oriented fashion,” writes Charles Bess.
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community
members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after it’s “ Games are a relatively inexpensive
published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the
community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. way to train people or run experiments
As the enterprise evolves to accommodate a global and
and simulations.” – Charles Bess
multigenerational workforce as well as shifting cultural mindsets,
the way we approach our work – and, indeed, how we interact
with others – topped the list of conversations in the Enterprise Horia Slusanschi agrees: “Games can be used to engage with customers
20/20 community. or partners in new ways and draw them to your brand. Games can also
be used in-house to develop better awareness of various ideas, habits or
How we work: Will gamification change behavior? opportunities. Games are a relatively inexpensive way to train people or
Next-generation technologies and ways of working, such as run experiments and simulations.”
gamification in the future enterprise, have captured the minds of
community members, who look at such technology from different Or will gamification be child’s play?
points of view. Some see gamification as child’s play – a ploy to Dennis Kruegel, however, sees gamification differently. “I think of an old-
pacify a generation brought up on constant praise – while others see fashioned company with strict hierarchies and a command environment
the technology as a simple, effective way to change behavior. rather than a collaboration environment ... I can't imagine such a
53

55. I.4 Community Discussion Highlights
I can't imagine such a company applying gamification concepts
internally, because for such a company the terms "play" and "work"
don't fit together. Either you play (that includes Social Media) or you
work. Performing well in a job in such a company is not seen as a
game, but as a duty.”
One thing is for certain: Change is a constant, and what may be
seen a trivial or frivolous today may become an integral part of
working tomorrow.
Fig
Go to the next Community Discussion page
54

56. Discussion
As we look to 2020, we are excited about the
promise technology holds to help us address
the opportunities and challenges in our rapidly
changing world. As professionals, we have a
responsibility to look forward, to play out
scenarios and challenge one another to
sharpen our vision.
55

57. Coming from different countries, different industries,
from inside and outside IT, we each bring a unique
perspective to the question we’re proposing:
“What will matter in 2020?”
56

58. I.5 Discussion
What will matter in 2020? During the next six months, the Enterprise 20/20 community will be
In this introduction, we’ve highlighted some trends and shared some diving deeply into domains that matter most to our professions. We’ll
opinions. But what we really want to know is how are you envisioning be looking horizontally across the boardroom, the apps team, the
the future? What shifts and trends matter in your industry? To your marketing department, the IT operations center and the CIO of 2020.
enterprise? To your profession? And we’ll be looking vertically at specific industries — financial
services, telecommunications, public sector, manufacturing and others.
htt
57

59. I.5 Community Discussion Highlights
The Enterprise
“Transparency, reduced latency and a strategic vision. ... there is too
much that is attributed to analyst demands and organizational politics
and not enough focused on the common good,” writes Charles Bess. “If
goals and initiatives are clearly stated and supported by employees and
2020 wish list stakeholders, the futility of the quarterly pressures response can be seen
for what it really is.”
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members,
and their comments help shape each chapter well after it’s published.
On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and “ We need to cater for a global,
highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub.
distributed, diverse workforce, many
Of all the discussions generated by the Enterprise 20/20 project,
perhaps one of the liveliest focuses on the enterprise 2020 “wish of whom are working from small hubs
list.” Answers were varied but a common theme emerged: To foster
future success, enterprises must begin to operate with a mindset
or home office.” – Mark Wilkinson
that benefits its customers and its employees.
Thomas Abel had one seemingly simple yet critical wish: Marc Wilkinson engaged a more global mindset: “We need to cater for a
“Collaboration and cooperation of all stakeholders on any level(s) global, distributed, diverse workforce, many of whom are working from
cross the organization(s) to make the full potential of all involved small hubs or home office - this changes culture in many ways we are
people available for the enterprise in 2020.” still learning, but interaction (and engagement), communication,
collaboration are all at the heart of the problem,” he writes.
Interestingly, technologies of any kind didn’t show up on community
members’ radars; rather, a change in corporate “attitude” and ways of As we look at the comments from the Enterprise 20/20 community, it’s
doing business topped the list. clear technology plays only part of the role in building a successful
58

60. I.5 Community Discussion Highlights
enterprise. It takes strong leadership, willingness to adapt to changing
needs and a keen awareness of the global marketplace. Having such
a foundation can only foster innovative, game-changing technology.
59

61. I.6 Sources
Graphics
1. http://www.citymayors.com/statistics/urban_2020_1.html 7. IDG Research Services, IT Executives Vision, conducted for HP, for 20/20,
May 2012
2. The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries, Homi Kharas, Brookings
Institution, June, 2011 8. US Census Bureau
3. Guardian UK 9. IDG Research Services, IT Executives Vision, conducted for HP,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/mar/02/cctv-cameras-watching-surveillance for 20/20, May 2012
4. IDG Research Services, IT Executives Vision, conducted for HP, for 20/20,
May 2012
Text
5a National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, 2030 Report
http://www.nistep.go.jp/ a. Source: US Census Bureau
5b Guardian UK, Launching a New Kind of Warfare b. Source: US Census Bureau
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2006/oct/26/
guardianweeklytechnologysection.robots c. Source: Frost and Sullivan, “50th Anniversay: 50 Predictions for 50”, 2011
5c BBC News d. Source: UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund), Demographic, Social
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6425927.stm # and Economic Indicators, 2007
5d BBC News e. Source: City Mayors, The world’s largest cities and urban areas in
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6425927.stm # 2020, 2012
5e National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, 2030 Report f. Source: IDC iView, The Digital Universe Decade – Are You Ready?
http://www.nistep.go.jp/ May 2010
5f Techcasts, Technology Forecast Results g. Source: UMTS Forum, “ Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020 (commissioned
http://www.techcast.org/Forecasts.aspx# research conducted by IDATE), January 2011
5g ScienceDaily, Scientists Developing Robotic Hand of the Future h. Source: Display Search, “3D Display Technology and Market Forecast
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/06/110629083237.htm Report”, 2010
5h Marshall Brain, Robotic Nation i. Source: Forbes Magazine, Systems of Engagement and the Future of IT,
http://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm Geoffrey Moore, 2012
5i Guardian UK, Launching a New Kind of Warfare
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2006/oct/26/ “The views set forth in this publication are not necessarily those of Hewlett-Packard
guardianweeklytechnologysection.robots# Company or its affiliates (HP), but are the collective views of contributors to this publication,
some of which have been curated by HP. Because the content of this publication is future-
6. UMTS Forum, Mobile Traffic Forecasts 2010-20/20, January 2011 looking, it, by definition, makes certain presuppositions and assumptions, some or all of
which may or may not be realized.”
60

63. Outlook
62

64. II.1 Outlook
It’s an increasingly familiar pattern. A line of business leader approaches
HP about a pressing need for assistance to drive a business—in one
recent case, to help a company rapidly create “social games.” The
customer is prepared to spend significant amounts of money to solve
this problem. He also explains that he expects to use a number of
“digital suppliers” to deliver these games, “one of which may or may not
be our central IT.” Ouch.
63

65. II.1 Outlook
To ensure that the business doesn’t sideline the CIO, the
entire IT department needs to take an active part in the
innovation agenda and provide the enterprise with new
points of differentiation.
64

66. II.1 Outlook
By 2020, the role of the CIO will be transformed from the
technology expert of yesteryear to that of a business engineer
who is pivotal to the strategic growth of the enterprise. Continuing
the path of automating business processes and adding a web
front-end to existing products and services will not be enough.
65

67. II.1 Outlook
“This is the most exciting time in IT since the early 1980s when
PCs came about and changed everything. It’s an enormous
sea change,” says Dr. Robert N. Charette, president, ITABHI Corporation.
This change involves moving from infrastructure builder to power broker.
Tomorrow’s IT leaders will run smaller in-house teams while managing a
mosaic of service providers. Driven by information and centered on innovation,
their enterprises will demand instant flexibility and require protection from a
variety of omnipresent security threats. How do you get there from here?
Begin with an understanding of the forces at play.
66

68. II.1 Community Discussion Highlights
Redefining
Bastiaan van der Water believes effective CIOs should focus less on the
business aspect of the position and more on the IT aspect. “I see too
many CIOs without proper IT education that choose for short term
the CIO
development and bleeding for long term. The CIO is the IT person,
not the business person,” he writes. IT is not something you can do if
you can't find work in your original line of education.”
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members,
Changing skillsets, changing structures
and their comments help shape each chapter well after it’s published. On
this page we take the pulse of the community and highlight some Other community members see the role of the CIO evolving as
thoughts from the Discussion Hub. technological shifts force changes within the enterprise. “The CIO
becomes mainly the builder and broker of IT based on collaboration,
The role of the CIO in 2020 is being heavily debated in the community, increased agility and faster revenue growth,” writes Thomas Abel.
with many believing CIOs will become “stewards of innovation” within “The CIO must bridge legacy and as-a-service worlds.”
their companies and manage IT from the standpoint of driving both
efficiency and growth. Some members even believe the role of the
CIO will become even more important as business processes map “ The CIO must bridge legacy and
ever closer to IT, from marketing to employee recruitment
and retention.
as-a-service worlds.”
– Thomas Abel
“CIOs must not only work at the strategy level, but also understand
and relate to the details,” notes Charles Bess. “They must understand
and preserve that which is optimally efficient, yet also muster the courage
to find what could work better. ... No other position in the modern “The better question is, ‘What functional responsibilities does the
enterprise requires the executive to excel in so many capacities.” organization need to address as they relate to technology?’ “
67

69. II.1 Community Discussion Highlights
queries Joshua Brown. “How many people, with what skill sets, would
be necessary to cover all these responsibilities?"
As enterprises evolve and job functions shift, some community
members even question the need for a separate CIO. “... [T]here has
been a great deal of discussion about the Chief Marketing Officer
taking on many of the CIO’s functions in some organizations — or at
least align the work otherwise both will become irrelevant,” notes
Charles Bess.
Others, however, see the CIO’s role becoming even more critical.
“From the ebook we can see that the CIO in 2020 will be responsible
for a multitude of functions and capabilities,” writes Gary White. “Could
this change the ‘I’ in CIO from ‘Information’ to ‘Intelligence’?”
Fig
Go to the next Community Discussion page
68

70. Challenges and Opportunities
for the CIO of 2020
A number of concurrent trends are shaping the IT department of the future,
presenting both challenges and opportunities for CIOs. To stay relevant, CIOs
must take action, and:
• Innovate with the business.
• Jettison all that’s not core.
• Support mosaics of small companies and free agents.
• Create solutions that optimize mega-systems.
• Focus on the “I” in “IT.”
• Balance privacy and security with personalization and access.
• Manage IT performance versus risk.
69

71. II.2 Challenges and Opportunities for the CIO of 2020
1
Mark Potts, CTO, HP Software, agrees: “It’s important to look at what
Innovate with the IT means, going forward, in terms of a responsibility rather than as
the business an as an organization a construct, as companies look for greater
agility, but the responsibilities for managing brokered hybrid delivery
and the associated quality, risk and cost management won’t be
As 2020 approaches, CIOs must move from providing a business
abdicated, and the CIO is likely to have to manage this across
support function to becoming part of business teams and helping them
enterprise.”
create innovative products and services. CIOs who do not stage this
transformation will become marginalized by cloud providers and
Businesses are increasingly looking to IT to create differentiation and
business IT groups that will introduce high-level business processes,
innovation for their products and services. Today, IT is only used to
applications and data analysis development tools.
drive competitive advantage in 50 percent of enterprises.1 (See Figure
1.) Patrick Dixon, the British futurist, believes that the board of the
Today, IT is only used to drive competitive future will have a CTO on it to ensure that technology is applied
wherever possible to create competitive advantage.2
advantage in 50 percent of enterprises
This trend is not about IT partnering with the business. It’s about IT
“As computing becomes increasingly ubiquitous, the IT department will professionals becoming members of business teams and being
naturally spread across the corporation,” says Charette. measured and rewarded in the same way as the business teams with
whom they work.
70

72. II.2 Challenges and Opportunities for the CIO of 2020
“I don’t know how you talk about an “IT department” any more—we’re In order for IT to become a valuable member of business teams, the
now all part of IT in a way,” says Charette. CIO of 2020 needs the tools and the people to provide a number of
critical services
IT must be committed to the same goals as the business itself. A
recent Economist survey found that in 16 percent of enterprises, the • Business processes: IT consultants need to be able to quickly
CIO doesn’t set IT strategy – he or she is only consulted once the design and modify business processes, many of which will call on
strategy is set. This must change. external cloud services to perform process tasks.
A recent Economist survey found that in • Multi-device applications: Applications that are able to understand
both voice and gestures and synchronize across the landscape of
16 percent of enterprises, the CIO devices will be common. The CIO of 2020 needs to put in place
skilled people and systems to create such applications.
doesn’t set IT strategy – he or she is
• Real-time analytics solutions: IT will need to be able to create
only consulted once the strategy is set. real-time analytics solutions quickly for the business. This must
include not only familiar structured data but also unstructured data
such as information generated by social media interactions, and the
sensor data that will be pouring into the enterprise.
71

73. II.2 Challenges and Opportunities for the CIO of 2020
• SaaS: Enterprises are already asking, “Can we change the
applications we currently provide for our customers into SaaS
services?” This will be a strong trend through 2020, resulting in many
enterprises offering applications as a service for their customers. We
may see the part of IT that manages such SaaS services get spun off
as a revenue-generating entity within the enterprise.
• Cloud services for smart products: Products like cars,
refrigerators, health monitors, shopping carts and buildings will
become increasingly intelligent. They will “call home” to cloud
services provided by enterprises. The IT department of 2020 will
need tools and skills to provide valuable back-end services for these
smart products.
In order to provide these services to business teams, IT needs to focus
more than it ever has before.
72

74. II.2 Challenges and Opportunities
for the CIO of 2020
2 Jettison all
that’s not core
Geoffrey Moore (author of Crossing the Chasm and Inside the Tornado)
has a model for the use of cloud. “Low-cost economies are entering the
international sphere on the basis of cost. If you are in a high-cost
economy, you must therefore differentiate to sustain margins,”
he says.4 Many global enterprises are taking advantage of this trend by
shifting hiring and operations to low-cost economies. But they must
also have a maniacal focus on differentiation, as cost advantages
disappear rapidly with globalization.
Increasingly, it is the thinking that IT brings to the table that enables
organizations to create differentiated, innovative products and services.
In order to do this, however, IT needs to become hyper-focused on
innovation and offload everything that might distract from this goal.
IT needs to become hyper-focused on
innovation and offload everything that
distracts from this goal.
73

75. II.2 Challenges and Opportunities
for the CIO of 2020
Focus on “core” is not a new concept. Many consumer electronics
companies have exited the manufacturing business altogether and
now just focus on what differentiates them—design and marketing
(and the ecosystems around their products). Car manufacturers focus
on those elements of design and production where they feel they can
differentiate, leaving commodity items to others.
“Divest yourself of non-core processes,” Moore says. Such processes
and applications might include payroll, expenses, travel, email and
other communication tools. Provided we can get these functions from a
cloud provider at a level of performance, availability, security and cost
that is acceptable, we should jettison them from our IT departments.
By 2020, SaaS and Business Process as a Service (BPasS) providers
will be the norm, and most development and testing environments will
be delivered by cloud providers, as will many production environments.
“Divest yourself of non-core processes.”
- Geoffrey Moore, author, Crossing the
Chasm and Inside the Tornado
74

76. II.2 Challenges and Opportunities for the CIO of 2020
In September 2003, Nicholas Carr of the Harvard Business Review Success in a cloud-based world hinges on service provider
wrote an article titled “Why IT doesn’t matter anymore.” He argued that management, or digital supplier management. CIOs will need a better
IT just provided infrastructure and that it didn’t provide differentiation. way to choose digital suppliers because by 2020, there will be
He said that many industries went through the same evolution – they thousands of cloud providers vying for their attention. They must keep
started by delivering a competitive advantage, but soon become an a constant watch over their portfolio of suppliers. How well do they
operational risk, and something we all just used. He cited electricity as perform? Do they adhere to compliance standards? What do they
an example. No-one uses electricity as a competitive advantage, but a cost? This need for supplier cost monitoring moves automatic and
potential cut in the supply of electricity represents a business risk. systematic service costing from a “nice-to-have” to an essential
discipline that the CIO must develop within his or her department.
While provocative, we would argue the facts show otherwise. Sure, IT
does a lot of things that do not differentiate the business, but many Just as the IT department of 2020 will move much of its current work to
enterprises use IT effectively to differentiate. No one would say that third parties, the enterprise will use third parties in its project teams.
iTunes didn’t differentiate the iPod (or, to put it another way, the
“product” was the combination of the iPod and iTunes). But Nicholas
Car was partly right. Unless IT is ruthless about getting someone else Unless IT is ruthless about getting
to provide the non-differentiated services, it is going to struggle to have
the focus to differentiate the products the enterprise sells. someone else to provide the non-
differentiated services, it is going to
struggle to have the focus to differentiate
the products the enterprise sells.
75