Copy of my presentation to the ILGISA Spring Conference, 2012, in Champaign, IL. The study looks at 10 years of homicide data in Chicago to look for temporal trends.
3. Crime Studies Don’t Pay
Temporal Specificity/Generalizations
Crime Specificity
Precision: the Missing Link
Different Temporal Specificity
Crime Generalizations
4. All Crimes – One Year
Data too large
Conclusions too weak
5. All Crimes – One Year
Data too large
Conclusions too weak
All Homicides – Ten Years
Total/Monthly/Daily
Time Animation (ArcGIS)
One-way ANOVA (SPSS)
6. All Crimes – One Year
Data too large
Conclusions too weak
All Homicides – Ten Years
Total/Monthly/Daily
One-way ANOVA (SPSS)
Time Animation (ArcGIS)
7. Total Crimes January = 31.1
311
Average
31.1
Rank
11th
8. Total Crimes January = 31.1
256 February = 25.6
Average
25.6
Rank
12th
9. Total Crimes January = 31.1
370 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average
37.0
Rank
10th
10. Total Crimes January = 31.1
431 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average April = 43.1
43.1
Rank
7th
11. Total Crimes January = 31.1
441 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average April = 43.1
44.1 May = 44.1
Rank
6th
12. Total Crimes January = 31.1
567 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average April = 43.1
56.7 May = 44.1
June = 56.7
Rank
2nd
13. Total Crimes January = 31.1
597 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average April = 43.1
59.7 May = 44.1
June = 56.7
Rank July = 59.7
1st
14. Total Crimes January = 31.1
521 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average April = 43.1
52.1 May = 44.1
June = 56.7
Rank July = 59.7
3rd August = 52.1
15. Total Crimes January = 31.1
489 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average April = 43.1
48.9 May = 44.1
June = 56.7
Rank July = 59.7
4th August = 52.1
September = 48.9
16. Total Crimes January = 31.1
458 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average April = 43.1
45.8 May = 44.1
June = 56.7
Rank July = 59.7
5th August = 52.1
September = 48.9
October = 45.8
17. Total Crimes January = 31.1
397 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average April = 43.1
39.7 May = 44.1
June = 56.7
Rank July = 59.7
8th August = 52.1
September = 48.9
October = 45.8
November = 39.7
18. Total Crimes January = 31.1
380 February = 25.6
March = 37.0
Average April = 43.1
38.0 May = 44.1
June = 56.7
Rank July = 59.7
9th August = 52.1
September = 48.9
October = 45.8
November = 39.7
December = 38.0
19. January = 31.1
February = 25.6
March = 37.0
April = 43.1
May = 44.1
June = 56.7
July = 59.7
August = 52.1
September = 48.9
October = 45.8
November = 39.7
December = 38.0
20. 30 Days January = 31.1
September February = 25.6
April March = 37.0
November April = 43.1
June May = 44.1
June = 56.7
28.2 Days July = 59.7
February August = 52.1
September = 48.9
October = 45.8
November = 39.7
December = 38.0
21. Daily Average Monthly Average
January = 1.00 January = 31.1
February = 0.91 February = 25.6
March = 1.19 March = 37.0
April = 1.44 April = 43.1
May = 1.42 May = 44.1
June = 1.89 June = 56.7
July = 1.93 July = 59.7
August = 1.68 August = 52.1
September = 1.63 September = 48.9
October = 1.48 October = 45.8
November = 1.32 November = 39.7
December = 1.23 December = 38.0
22. All Crimes – One Year
Data too large
Conclusions too weak
All Homicides – Ten Years
Total/Monthly/Daily
One-way ANOVA (SPSS)
Time Animation (ArcGIS)
24. January < June, July, August, September
February < April, May, June, July, August, September, October
March < July
April > February (and) < July
May > February
June > January, February
July > January, February, March, April, November, December
August > January, February
September > January, February
October > February
November < July
December < July
Significant: p < 0.05
25. All Crimes – One Year
Data too large
Conclusions too weak
All Homicides – Ten Years
Total/Monthly/Daily
One-way ANOVA (SPSS)
Time Animation (ArcGIS)
27. Criminal Intent
High and Low months/seasons
Significant differences
Future Studies
Expansion of crime types, crime times
Increased analysis
Framework for GIS Applications
28. More Crime, More Better
Homicide, Arson, Gambling
▪ Assault, Burglary, Robbery
More Time, More Better
Crime by Days
▪ Individual days, weekday days v. weekend days
Crime by Time
▪ Four 6 hour periods, individual hours
54. Noah Sager
Graduate Student
Department of Geography
Chicago State University
nsager@csu.edu
www.noahsager.net
Thank You!
Questions?
19 April 2012
Champaign, Illinois
ILGISA Spring Conference