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GSMA intellegent Guideline.pdf

28 de Mar de 2023
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GSMA intellegent Guideline.pdf

  1. Operator revenue diversification: growth beyond core continues as Covid-19 spurs digitisation September 2021 © 2021 GSM Association
  2. The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, uniting more than 750 operators with nearly 400 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset and device makers, software companies, equipment providers and internet companies, as well as organisations in adjacent industry sectors. The GSMA also produces the industry-leading MWC events held annually in Barcelona, Los Angeles and Shanghai, as well as the Mobile 360 Series of regional conferences. For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate website at www.gsma.com Follow the GSMA on Twitter: @GSMA GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data, analysis and forecasts, and publisher of authoritative industry reports and research. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO in every country worldwide – from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. It is the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available, comprising tens of millions of individual data points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third-party industry players, to support strategic decision-making and long-term investment planning. The data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought- leading research reports across a range of industry topics. www.gsmaintelligence.com info@gsmaintelligence.com Authors Pablo Iacopino, Head of Research and Commercial Content Charu Paliwal, Team Lead Bhawna Jain, Senior Research Analyst
  3. Executive summary Revenue diversification: tracking and assessing operator progress 1 2 3 Revenues beyond core: key trends and results 4 Operator revenues: overall performance and Covid-19 impact 5 Revenues beyond core: key findings by service 3
  4. Business diversification drives growth – There is often scepticism about operator success beyond core telecoms, but our research – based on rigorous and consistent analysis of the financial results of major operator groups – shows that operator revenue diversification is real. The average contribution to total revenues of services beyond core (a growing and diverse range of B2B and B2C services) reached 24% in 2020 for the operators analysed, up from 18% in 2017. 1 2 3 4 5 Shape of the market Progress beyond core varies – Revenue beyond core as a percentage of total revenues varies significantly (around 15–40%) among operators. This is to be expected; there is no ‘one size fits all’ in terms of strategy or timeline for diversification. Revenue diversification is organic for the majority of operators, but M&A has provided a boost for AT&T, SoftBank and Verizon (M&A in media) as well as KT (financial services) and SK Telecom (security). The Japanese and South Korean operators lead on diversification, but China is catching up. Strategically and financially more important than ever before – Revenue diversification has become a strategic focus for major operators in recent years, with services beyond core now a key component of growth stories. The goal is twofold: to offset stagnating (or declining) core telecoms revenues and to capture incremental value from new growth areas (such as digital services and platforms). For two thirds of the operators analysed, services beyond core were the only source of revenue growth in 2020. Covid-19 has proved to be a catalyst – The pandemic has accelerated the shift to digital for consumers and enterprises, fuelling further growth beyond core. In 2020, revenue beyond core telecoms grew by double digits for half the operators analysed – a welcome outcome considering the impact of Covid-19 on mobile roaming and equipment sales. In the enterprise market, demand for value-added services, particularly cloud and security, grew significantly as enterprises sped up their digital transformation. What lies ahead – There is still potential for further growth beyond core, particularly in B2B as enterprise digitisation accelerates. Cloud and security will continue to drive B2B revenue growth. Operators are also stepping up their efforts in financial services (B2B and B2C) across all regions, including securing new digital banking licences. In the consumer market, momentum for gaming and e-sports will likely accelerate as 5G, cloud/edge and extended reality (XR) technologies shape the future of digital entertainment. A range of operators have already launched local cloud gaming subscription services; others are likely to launch over the next 12 months. 4
  5. The market in numbers 41% SoftBank leads on share In 2020, SoftBank (41%) surpassed AT&T (37%) as the operator with the highest share of revenue beyond core. More than half of SoftBank’s revenue beyond core comes from Yahoo Japan (commerce and media business). ~$200 billion Revenue beyond core In 2020, services beyond core (B2B and B2C) were worth around $200 billion in revenues for the 16 operators analysed (in aggregate) – and are growing. Operator revenue diversification is real. ~2× China leads on growth Revenue beyond core has nearly doubled over the last three years for the three Chinese operators in aggregate – a remarkable achievement driven by advancements in B2B and backed by the government’s tech agenda. 24% Beyond core as a share of total revenues Beyond core as a percentage of total revenues grew for all 16 operators except AT&T in 2020 (the Covid-19 impact on WarnerMedia’s business). The average contribution reached 24%, up from 22% in 2019 and 18% in 2017. 30% B2B share of total revenues Consumer is the largest contributor to revenue, but enterprise is the main growth driver as operators target the digital transformation of industries. B2B as a share of total revenues grew from an average of 27% in 2017 to 30% in 2020. 9% Average growth beyond core Revenue beyond core grew 9% year-on-year on average in 2020. This was the result of 4% growth in pay TV and 12% growth in other non- core services. Cloud and security were the top areas of growth in the B2B market. 5
  6. 2020 in review: 10 key insights Services beyond core were the only source of revenue growth for two thirds of the operators analysed, as core revenue stagnated or declined. Operators in China, Japan and South Korea were the most resilient during the pandemic (group revenue grew for most of them). Services beyond core generated two percentage points of revenue growth on average (taking total revenues in 2019 as the base). Revenue beyond core is now greater than fixed revenue for two thirds of the operators analysed – a further signal of the shifting revenue mix. If revenue beyond core were to represent a mobile market, it would be the second-largest in the world after the US – bigger than China and Europe. 1 2 3 4 5 In China, cloud revenue grew seven times faster than IoT revenue (for the three operators in aggregate). Operators that had higher revenue growth beyond core also recorded stronger performance in their core business (non-core helps core and vice versa). In Japan, services beyond core accounted for 90% of total revenue growth (for the three major operators in aggregate). Gaming, financial services, cloud and security were the leading areas in terms of new operator activity. Banking and financial services became the largest source of revenue for BT Global Services. 6 7 8 9 10 6
  7. Revenue diversification: tracking and assessing operator progress 1 2 3 Revenues beyond core: key trends and results 4 Operator revenue: overall performance and Covid-19 impact 5 Revenues beyond core: key findings by service Executive summary 7
  8. Assessing operator revenue growth: how did 2020 go? 15.8 7.1 5.0 4.7 4.6 3.0 1.6 1.4 -0.4 -1.8 -2.3 -2.7 -3.3 -5.2 -7.7 -11.6 Turkcell SoftBank SK Telecom China Telecom China Unicom China Mobile NTT Docomo KDDI América Móvil KT Telenor Verizon Telefónica AT&T Singtel Telstra Source: company figures (at group level), GSMA Intelligence • A mixed picture. Half the operators we analysed reported revenue growth in 2020, while the other half reported revenue decreases. A closer look reveals two trends. First, most operators in China, Japan and South Korea grew their revenues thanks to a fairly resilient core business (traditional mobile and fixed services) and solid growth (double-digit for most) in services beyond core telecoms. Three of them (China Telecom, China Unicom and NTT Docomo) shifted from a revenue decline in 2019 to revenue growth in 2020 – remarkable considering the challenges of the pandemic. Second, five operators saw a deterioration in their revenue trend, shifting from revenue growth in 2019 to a revenue decline in 2020 – largely due to the impact of the pandemic on mobile revenues. América Móvil, Telefónica and Telenor are notable examples given their large footprints in developing markets. Turkcell continues to be an outlier (with double-digit revenue growth). Group revenue: year-on-year change (%) in 2020* Growth acceleration From decline to growth Growth slowdown • China Mobile • SK Telecom • SoftBank From growth to decline Weakening (stronger decline) • KDDI • Turkcell • China Telecom • China Unicom • NTT Docomo Comparison with previous year** • AT&T • Singtel • Telstra • América Móvil • KT • Telefónica • Telenor • Verizon China, Japan and South Korea *Organic figures for América Móvil, Singtel, Telefónica and Telenor. **Comparing year-on-year changes in 2019 and 2020. 8
  9. Covid-19: mid, single-digit impact on revenue Covid-19 impact on group revenue (2020)* Business areas most affected • Roaming • Prepaid mobile • Equipment sales • Digital advertising • Impact of 4–5%. Of the 16 operators analysed, only three disclosed the full impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on their 2020 group revenues. This was 4% for Telefónica and 5% for both AT&T and Singtel. An impact on mobile revenue was a common factor. On top of this, Covid-19 had a significant impact on AT&T’s WarnerMedia business due to limited and postponed theatre and home entertainment releases, as well as lower TV licensing, production and advertising revenues. • Impact on mobile across the board. This was highlighted by most operators, including those who did not disclose the full impact of Covid-19. Within mobile, the business areas most affected were roaming (given the significant decrease in international travel) and equipment sales (due to slower handset replacement rates, lower gross adds and disruption to the global supply chain). • The impact is now lessening. For example, AT&T’s revenue has gradually recovered over the last two quarters, returning to pre-pandemic levels across most of its businesses. In general, the impact on international travel and roaming remains the biggest headwind, which will likely continue to 2022. • Service revenues 76% • Device sales 24% 0.6% -3.9% -3.3% Growth excluding Covid-19 impact Covid-19 impact Growth including Covid-19 impact Impact breakdown (% of total Covid-19 impact) • Media and advertising 62% • Mobile services 14% • Mobile equipment 5% • Pay TV 4% • Business wireline 2% • Other 13% Impact breakdown (% of total Covid-19 impact) -0.6% -4.6% -5.2% -2.5% -5.2% -7.7% Source: company figures (at group level), GSMA Intelligence *As a percentage of 2019 revenue. Based on organic figures for Singtel and Telefónica. Telefónica Full year ended December 2020 AT&T Full year ended December 2020 Singtel Full year ended March 2021 9
  10. Services beyond core drive revenue growth during Covid-19 • Covid-19 fuelling growth beyond core. Even before the pandemic, the trend towards digitisation was clear – but the pandemic has accelerated the shift to digital for consumers and enterprises. For example, the adoption of e-commerce during the peak of the pandemic nearly doubled compared to pre-Covid-19 levels in major countries, including the US, Canada, France, Italy, Australia, Brazil and Mexico.* While e-commerce volumes have declined from their Covid-19 peak (due to the re-opening of retail stores), e-commerce as a share of total retail sales is still 30% higher than pre-Covid levels. Mobile commerce accounts for the majority of e-commerce transactions. In the enterprise market, demand for digital solutions and value-added services, especially cloud and security, grew significantly as enterprises accelerated their digital transformation. • Media and advertising was an exception. This was the only non- core area suffering the Covid-19 crisis at scale, due to lower content production and digital advertising (cuts in advertising spend by brands and advertisers). As shown on the previous page, for AT&T, more than 60% of Covid-19-related revenue losses in 2020 came from its WarnerMedia business. • Fixed more resilient than mobile. Covid-19 boosted demand for home broadband access and high-speed connectivity to support remote working, home schooling and a surge in video consumption and online shopping. This made fixed revenues (with average growth of 0.9%) more resilient than mobile revenues (–1.0%). -1.0% 0.9% 4.3% 11.5% Mobile Pay TV Fixed Other services Core telecoms Beyond core telecoms 14 9 7 7 2 6 9 9 YoY change in 2020 Number of operators that had: Revenue growth by category of service revenue growth revenue decline **Simple average of year-on-year changes. Source: company figures (at group level), GSMA Intelligence 16 operators in aggregate** *E-commerce as a percentage of total retail sales. 10
  11. 19% 5% 20% 56% A snapshot of the operator revenue mix Contribution to total revenues by category of service, 2020* Mobile Pay TV Fixed Other services Core telecoms Beyond core telecoms Average Source: company figures (at group level), GSMA Intelligence • Mobile leads for most. Telstra is the exception (with fixed revenue slightly greater than mobile revenue). AT&T has the most balanced mix. • Beyond core greater than fixed for many. Revenue generated by services beyond core is now greater than fixed revenue for two thirds of the operators analysed – a further signal of the shifting revenue mix. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% SoftBank AT&T KT SK Telecom Singtel Turkcell KDDI NTT Docomo Telefónica China Telecom Telstra Verizon China Unicom América Móvil Telenor China Mobile *Sorted by share of beyond core (from highest to lowest). 11
  12. Consumer (B2C) versus enterprise (B2B): scale versus growth Source: company figures (at group level), GSMA Intelligence 27% 28% 29% 30% 2017 2018 2019 2020 • Revenue disclosure for B2B services is limited. However, we were able to gather data for 11 major operator groups. Consumer services are the largest contributor to revenue, but enterprise is the main growth driver as operators increasingly target the digital transformation of vertical industries. B2B as a share of total revenues grew from an average of 27% in 2017 to 30% in 2020. Disclosure of B2B revenue by vertical sector is virtually non-existent, but our Operators in Focus Enterprise Opportunity 2021 Survey shows that operators expect financial services, manufacturing and retail to be the top verticals in terms of B2B revenue (connectivity and value-added services) through to 2025 – with variation by region. • A mixed picture for B2B revenue in 2020. The pandemic has increased enterprises’ need for digital transformation, which in turn has boosted demand for digital solutions and value-added services provided by operators, especially cloud and security. At the same time, traditional B2B sales (e.g. connectivity and equipment) have been affected by the pandemic, particularly in the SME segment. Since connectivity is greater than non-connectivity revenue, overall B2B revenues declined in 2020 for more than half the operators analysed. B2B as a percentage of total revenues 11 operators in aggregate (simple average) B2B as a percentage of total revenues (2020)* *Service revenue for Vodafone. For Telstra, B2B excludes revenue from small businesses (reported within Consumer). Domestic figures for Turkcell (Turkey accounts for 86% of Turkcell Group revenue). 12 44% 43% 41% 35% 34% 30% 27% 19% 19% 19% 18% 56% 57% 59% 65% 66% 70% 73% 81% 81% 81% 82% Singtel BT/EE SoftBank AT&T Telstra Verizon Vodafone Telefónica Turkcell KDDI China Mobile B2B Other (mostly Consumer)
  13. Revenue diversification: tracking and assessing operator progress 1 2 3 Revenues beyond core: key trends and results 4 Operator revenue: overall performance and Covid-19 impact 5 Revenues beyond core: key findings by service Executive summary 13
  14. Core telecoms Beyond core Enterprise Consumer Gaming Traditional pay TV Enterprise IoT Cloud and edge Security Mobile voice, messaging and data Fixed voice and broadband OTT video content and services Financial services Advertising and digital marketing Big data and analytics Professional services IT SD-WAN Mobile voice, messaging and data Fixed voice and broadband MPLS WAN IP-VPN Private networks Leased lines Unified communications and web conferencing Digital payments and commerce Smart home B2B content and e-sports Revenue diversification: defining services beyond core • A diverse range of services. The portfolio of services beyond core offered by operators has never been richer. It includes a growing and diverse range of B2B and B2C services and products (see chart). Gaming, financial services, cloud and security were the leading areas in terms of new operator activity in 2020. • Bundling and integration. Services beyond core are increasingly offered as part of integrated solutions. For example, cloud, IoT, analytics and security services are often offered to enterprise customers via digital transformation packages. A range of operators offer consumer services (e.g. digital entertainment, financial services and commerce) via multiservice platform-based models. Source: GSMA Intelligence Core telecoms services and services beyond core Utilities Health and fitness E-sports Financial services 14
  15. Mobile Pay TV Fixed Other services** Core telecoms Beyond core telecoms • Understanding success. Operator success beyond core can be defined and measured in different ways. Based on our discussions with major operators, they have identified revenue generation as the primary measure of success, which we strongly agree with. To assess operator progress beyond core, we look at the financial results of major groups around the world. However, not all report sufficient data to calculate revenues beyond core.* We were able to gather and compare revenues beyond core for 16 major operator groups. These generated a total of around $850 billion in revenue (core and beyond core) in 2020. We examined group figures for the last four years (2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020). Annual figures are based on fiscal-year reporting periods. • Revenue disclosure beyond core is improving. This is to be expected, given the importance of these services. Operators are reporting more data points, though there is still significant fragmentation. The Chinese operators are setting a new bar, providing increasing visibility of revenues (and other KPIs) generated by individual services. • Making data more comparable. Revenue beyond core is calculated based on data as reported by operators and GSMA Intelligence reclassifications and estimates (where applicable and appropriate). These adjustments allow a better like-for-like comparison as in some cases reported data is inconsistent between operators. Methodology: tracking operator progress beyond core *For example, Etisalat, Deutsche Telekom, Ooredoo, Orange, Telecom Italia and Vodafone. **A range of B2C and B2B services, such as pay TV (traditional and over the top), media and advertising, gaming, IoT, cloud, security, commerce and financial services, smart home services, and solutions for vertical industries. Revenue categories Operator coverage: 16 major groups América Móvil China Unicom Singtel Telenor AT&T KDDI SK Telecom Telstra China Mobile KT SoftBank Turkcell China Telecom NTT Docomo Telefónica Verizon Source: GSMA Intelligence 15
  16. Revenue diversification: tracking and assessing operator progress 1 2 3 Revenues beyond core: key trends and results 4 Operator revenue: overall performance and Covid-19 impact 5 Revenues beyond core: key findings by service Executive summary 16
  17. • Progress varies. Revenue beyond core as a percentage of total revenues varies significantly (around 15–40%) among operators. This is expected as there is no ‘one size fits all’ in terms of strategy and timeline for diversification. Some operators offer a wider range of consumer services beyond core; Turkcell and the Japanese and Korean operators are notable examples. • M&A is also a factor. Diversification is organic for the majority of operators, but M&A has provided a boost for AT&T, SoftBank and Verizon (in media) as well as KT (financial services) and SK Telecom (security). AT&T is now scaling back (with the WarnerMedia spin-off deal with Discovery Inc) to focus on the new B2B and B2C opportunities enabled by the rollout of 5G and fibre networks. This does not sound a ‘death knell’ for operators in media though; rather, it reflects the challenges of full telco/media integration at scale. • Understanding progress. The average contribution of revenue beyond core to total revenues reached 24% in 2020, up from 22% in 2019. Mathematically, two factors determine its progression: the performances on core and beyond core. While core revenue declined for 10 of the 16 operators analysed, the 2 percentage point increase was mostly driven by further progress on services beyond core. Services beyond core: how far operators have gone 41% 37% 35% 31% 27% 27% 25% 22% 22% 22% 19% 19% 17% 14% 14% 12% SoftBank AT&T KT SK Telecom Singtel Turkcell KDDI NTT Docomo Telefónica China Telecom Telstra Verizon China Unicom América Móvil Telenor China Mobile Average: 24% Revenue beyond core as a percentage of total revenues in 2020 Source: company figures (at group level), GSMA Intelligence 17
  18. 41% 37% 35% 31% 27% 27% 25% 22% 22% 22% 19% 19% 17% 14% 14% 12% SoftBank AT&T KT SK Telecom Singtel Turkcell KDDI NTT Docomo Telefónica China Telecom Telstra Verizon China Unicom América Móvil Telenor China Mobile 3 -3 2 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 1 4 1 1 3 Assessing progress in 2020 • Progress across the board. Revenue beyond core as a percentage of total revenues grew for all operators except AT&T in 2020. Revenue growth beyond core was organic for all in 2020. The Chinese operators had some of the largest year-on-year increases, mostly driven by B2B services and backed by the government’s ambition to make China a leading country in high-tech industries, including 5G and AI. • SoftBank took the lead on revenue diversification. In 2020, SoftBank surpassed AT&T. This was the result of two main factors: 15% growth of Yahoo Japan’s revenue (mostly driven by the commerce business) and a significant revenue decrease in AT&T’s media and entertainment businesses (–11% for domestic pay TV and –9% for WarnerMedia). • Explaining China Mobile. The Chinese operator is making significant progress on services beyond core. For such services, it has the fourth-largest business ($14 billion in revenue in 2020) after AT&T, Verizon and SoftBank, and the highest revenue growth (more than 30% year-on-year). However, its beyond core share of total revenues stands at 12% – the lowest among the operators analysed. This is the result of having a large mobile business (around $80 billion in revenue) which dominates its revenue mix. Revenue beyond core as a percentage of total revenues in 2020 and year-on-year change (percentage points) Source: company figures (at group level), GSMA Intelligence 18
  19. 15% 28% 30% 21% 23% 24% 20% 19% 14% 16% 15% 16% 7% 12% 14% 6% 41% 37% 35% 31% 27% 27% 25% 22% 22% 22% 19% 19% 17% 14% 14% 12% SoftBank AT&T KT SK Telecom Singtel Turkcell KDDI NTT Docomo Telefónica China Telecom Telstra Verizon China Unicom América Móvil Telenor China Mobile Assessing progress over the previous three years • Material progress between 2017 and 2020. Revenue beyond core as a percentage of total revenues grew 6 percentage points on average across the 16 operators analysed during this time period (from 18% in 2017 to 24% in 2020). Some operators had double- digit (or near-double-digit) increases as organic growth was complemented by acquisitions (AT&T and SoftBank are the primary examples). • China is catching up. Services beyond core generated $33 billion in revenue in 2020 for the three Chinese operators in aggregate, up from $18 billion in 2017. Services beyond core have been the main driver of overall revenue growth for the Chinese operators, due to flat core telecoms revenue • Explaining Telenor. Revenue beyond core as a percentage of total revenues was 14% in 2020 – as high as in 2017. However, this reflects the sale of its Canal Digital operations. Excluding M&A, the ratio would have increased by 2 percentage points. Source: company figures (at group level), GSMA Intelligence 2020 2017 Revenue beyond core as a percentage of total revenues in 2020 and 2017 19
  20. AT&T Singtel Telenor KT Verizon Telstra KDDI América Móvil NTT Docomo Telefónica SK Telecom China Telecom SoftBank Turkcell China Unicom China Mobile Core revenue Total revenue Revenue beyond core Year-on-year revenue growth by category, 2020 • Only source of revenue growth. In 2020, services beyond core were the only source of revenue growth for two thirds of the operators analysed, as core revenue stagnated or declined for many. • Generating 2 pp of growth. Services beyond core generated 2 percentage points of revenue growth on average in 2020 (taking 2019 total revenue as the base). However, in several cases, this was not enough to offset declines in core revenues. • Mutual benefits. Operators that had higher revenue growth beyond core also had stronger performances in their core businesses. This means services beyond core help core services (churn reduction, ARPU uplift and data usage growth) and vice versa (leveraging operator brand and key core assets such as distribution, networks and customer relationships). Measuring the speed of growth Source: company figures (at group level), GSMA Intelligence -13% -15% -12% 34% 14% 16% 20
  21. Mapping operator success beyond core: size, share and growth Revenue beyond core, year-on-year growth and as a percentage of total revenue, 2020 US leads on size. AT&T is the big outlier in terms of size of revenue beyond core ($63 billion in 2020), followed by Verizon ($25 billion). For both, media and entertainment is the key driver. Japan and South Korea lead on share. Operators in Japan and South Korea lead on revenue diversification, especially in the consumer market. China leads on growth. Chinese operators are seeing the most growth, driven by cloud and other value-added services for enterprise customers (B2B). Turkcell is a benchmark. With high diversification and growth, Turkcell provides one of the broadest portfolios of consumer digital services. Bubble sizes represent relative size of revenue from services beyond core Source: company figures (at group level), GSMA Intelligence Telefónica Telstra China Unicom KT Turkcell NTT Docomo SK Telecom Verizon China Telecom Singtel Telenor América Móvil KDDI AT&T China Mobile Softbank -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Revenue beyond core (yoy growth) Revenue beyond core (as % of total revenue) Average contribution: 24% Average growth: 9% 21 SoftBank
  22. US Latin America Europe China Japan and South Korea Rest of Asia Pacific • Cord cutting continues. Pay-TV household penetration declined by a further 5 pp in 2020, while video streaming subscriber growth benefitted from the Covid-19 pandemic. • Shifting media strategies. With AT&T scaling back on content, much of the operator’s media focus will be on spurring developments in gaming, immersive reality, e-sports and live events through 5G, cloud, edge and XR capabilities and partnerships. • Pay TV under pressure. América Móvil had another tough year in 2020 (pay-TV revenue down 7% year-on-year, subscribers down 4%). OTT is on the rise: HBO Max launched in 39 territories in Latin America and the Caribbean. • Stepping up fintech efforts. Operators are expanding in digital payments (e.g. Vivo Pay and Claro Pay) and consumer loans (e.g. Movistar Money in Mexico and Colombia). • Leading region on FMC. FMC continues to be a key strategic pillar for most operators with large footprints, including Vodafone, Deutsche Telekom, Orange and Telefónica. FMC M&A continues as operators advance their 5G and fibre rollouts. • Gaming on the rise. A range of operators have launched their own gaming subscription services (often part of their 5G propositions) to capitalise on the shift of gaming to mobile. • 5G SA for B2B. China is the only country to have had 5G SA network deployments from all operators in the market. With 5G a national strategic priority, operators are capturing new B2B opportunities, combining 5G with AI and cloud/edge technologies. • Smart home on the rise. All three operators are making progress. Smart home revenue accounted for 2% of total revenues in 2020 for both China Mobile and China Unicom – and is growing. • South Korea leads on 5G for consumer. Korean operators are a benchmark for consumer services beyond connectivity (e.g. content, finance and lifestyle). Leading on 5G (27% of mobile connections in June 2021) adds new possibilities. Gaming is a key focus. • Japan leads on integration of telecoms and lifestyle services. KDDI’s Life Design and NTT Docomo’s Smart Life (both focused on non-core consumer services) continue to deliver double- digit revenue growth. • New interest in digital banking licences. Singtel is making new moves in financial services. It won a digital banking licence in Singapore and has applied for one in Malaysia. Changing banking regulations are opening up the market to new players. • Partnerships to scale IoT. A range of operators (e.g. Telstra, Smart Axiata, Dtac, Reliance Jio) are co-creating solutions with enterprises and building partnerships to reach new IoT customers and markets. Services beyond core: regional trends 22
  23. Revenue diversification: tracking and assessing operator progress 1 2 3 Revenues beyond core: key trends and results 4 Operator revenue: overall performance and Covid-19 impact 5 Revenues beyond core: key findings by service Executive summary 23
  24. The global aggregate of revenue beyond core • Progress beyond core continues. The average contribution to total revenues of services beyond core reached 24% in 2020, up from 22% in 2019 and 18% in 2017. This makes operator revenue diversification real for major operators. • Around $200 billion. In 2020, services beyond core (B2B and B2C) were worth around $200 billion in revenue for the 16 operators analysed (in aggregate). Other operators not included in our coverage (many do not report sufficient data to calculate their revenues beyond core) generate revenues beyond core too. This means the total revenue beyond core is higher than $200 billion globally – and growing. To put this in context, if revenue beyond core were to represent a mobile market, it would be the second largest in the world after the US – bigger than China and Europe. Note: For NTT Docomo, Singtel and Turkcell, pay-TV revenue is low on a relative basis, hence not visible. Source: company figures (at group level), GSMA Intelligence 18% 20% 22% 24% 2017 2018 2019 2020 $63 AT&T $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Verizon SoftBank China Mobile KDDI China Telecom Telefónica NTT Docomo China Unicom KT América Móvil SK Telecom Telstra Singtel Telenor Turkcell Pay TV Other services Revenue beyond core: $202 billion in 2020 (sum of 16 operators analysed) • Pay TV: ~$50 billion • Other services: ~$150 billion Revenue beyond core as a percentage of total revenues 16 operators in aggregate (simple average) Revenue beyond core breakdown, 2020 ($ billion) 24
  25. 5% 19% 6% 5% 16% 14% 4% 3% 7% 4% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Average of 16 operators AT&T SoftBank Verizon SoftBank KT SK Telecom Turkcell SK Telecom Singtel Telefónica China Telecom Telefónica China Unicom China Mobile Telstra China Unicom China Mobile Telstra Telefónica China Telecom Services beyond core: contribution to total revenues, 2020* Media and advertising Financial services and commerce Security Cloud IoT Pay TV Breaking down the contribution of individual services • Gaining insights from individual services. In 2020, pay TV as a percentage of total revenues was in the single digits for all operators but KT (10%) and AT&T (17%, because of its large pay-TV customer base in the US). The average was 5%. Revenue disclosure for other individual services is irregular and in some cases inconsistent. However, a range of data points provided by some operators reveals important trends: cloud revenue has surpassed (or is on a trajectory to surpass) IoT revenue; SoftBank and KT lead on financial services and commerce (as a percentage of total revenues); and M&A has been a key factor in lifting contributions of individual services to mid-single or even double digits (e.g. AT&T, SoftBank and Verizon in media, SK Telecom in security, and SoftBank and KT in financial services and commerce). Source: company figures (at group level), GSMA Intelligence *Operators reporting revenue figures for individual services 25
  26. Pay TV: taking a growing share in a low-growth market • The closest adjacent service to telecoms but under pressure. Pay TV is an integral part of operator household propositions, with many operators bundling pay TV with fixed and, increasingly, mobile services (quad play). Operators are taking a growing share of the global traditional pay-TV market, but the market is growing slowly and even declining in some countries as consumers adopt video streaming (OTT) services. The US is the most notable case of declining pay-TV connections due to cord cutting. • IPTV continues to win market share. Over the last decade, IPTV’s share of traditional pay-TV connections has grown significantly, powered by VDSL and FTTH technologies provided by operators. Cable and to a lesser extent satellite are the losers. Bundling is also a key driver. IPTV is now the largest technology by connections in the leading fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) markets. IPTV will surpass satellite by number of connections by 2025. • Mixed picture for pay-TV revenue in 2020. While the pandemic accelerated video streaming subscriber growth, the impact on traditional pay TV was mixed. More than half the operators analysed reported pay-TV revenue growth in 2020, while the others reported a revenue decline. South Korean operators performed strongly, especially SK Telecom (26% revenue growth led by IPTV subscriber growth). Both AT&T (–14%) and América Móvil (–7%) had significant declines in their pay-TV revenues due to subscriber losses and ARPU contraction. 53% 44% 40% 38% 9% 18% 27% 33% 34% 35% 31% 28% 2010 2015 2020 2025 Cable IPTV Satellite Other Traditional pay-TV technologies: share of total connections* 76% 66% 60% 57% 56% 52% 51% 46% 37% 23% 22% 15% 13% 12% 7% IPTV share of traditional pay-TV connections (2020)** *Across 36 of the world’s largest pay-TV markets. Simple average. **Selected markets Source: GSMA Intelligence 26
  27. Gaming: the latest, promising addition to B2C services • Seeking a more direct role. So far, operators have mostly benefited from gaming indirectly through upselling, as heavy gamers need larger mobile data allowances. However, the shift of gaming consumption from consoles to mobile devices combined with the rise of cloud-based gaming and technology innovation that heavily involves (or is led by) operators (e.g. cloud, edge, 5G) is driving new thinking. 5G plays a role. First, streaming requires cloud-based content access, delivery and consumption, which in turn requires high-speed connectivity and low latencies. Second, 5G users are more engaged with gaming than 4G users (twice as much) and are more interested in having gaming bundled with their mobile connectivity contracts (40% higher interest).* • Operators have four possible routes (see chart). These routes are not mutually exclusive – a complete gaming strategy may well involve a combination of the options. As with music and video streaming in the past, a subscription model is now emerging for gaming. 15% of gamers already have a gaming subscription; half of gamers are not interested in a gaming subscription; that leaves a potential incremental market of at least 35% of gamers.* To capture this opportunity, a range of operators have launched their own, local cloud gaming propositions, including Deutsche Telekom, TIM, Vodafone Italy, Turkcell, China Mobile, Singtel and the three South Korean operators. We estimate that in 2025 gaming subscriptions could generate 4% of new revenues for operators in South Korea, and 3% in the UK, Italy and the US. Operator engagement in the ‘metaverse’ is also emerging through partnerships and developments in technology and content. Operator routes to gaming: comparison on selected metrics Selling third-party gaming services (bundled with mobile) Developing own gaming services (own- branded) B2B only: tech partner for gaming and media companies Developing e-sports for network and pay-TV benefits Time to market Low Medium/ high Medium Medium Gaming expertise required Low Medium/ high Medium Medium/ high Monetisation Low Medium Medium Medium KT and SK Telecom each aim to reach 1 million gaming subscribers over the next 2–3 years; this would correspond to around 10% of their 5G subscriber bases (assuming most gaming subscribers will be 5G users). B2C-focused B2B-focused Source: company figures, GSMA Intelligence China Mobile had 52 million cloud gaming subscribers at the end of 2020 (a three-fold increase year-on-year). 52 million represents 5% of its mobile customer base. *GSMA Intelligence Consumers in Focus Survey (20 major countries around the world). Developing their own gaming services 27
  28. Financial services: stepping up efforts • A key focus. Financial services represent a key component of revenue diversification strategies for various operators. For SoftBank and KT, financial services and commerce represent the largest business beyond core telecoms, accounting for 16% and 14% of their total revenues respectively. As of June 2021, Orange Bank had 1.6 million B2B and B2C customers in Europe, while Orange Money reached 23 million active customers across Africa and the Middle East. • Latest developments highlight three trends. First, some operators including Orange and Telefónica are targeting new customer segments (SOHO and SME) following an initial focus on consumers. Second, the portfolio of offerings is expanding to insurance and digital currencies for some operators – it is no coincidence that Orange Bank was renamed Mobile Financial Services, to reflect the integration of new activities. Third, operators are winning new digital bank licences as changing bank regulations are opening up the market. • Stepping up efforts. As Covid-19 has accelerated the shift to digital, a growing number of operators around the world are making new moves in financial services through M&A and partnerships. Such moves target both customer engagement and new digital capabilities for businesses, including for fraud prevention, credit risk, identity and digital currencies. • Orange acquired Anytime, a neobank focused on financial services for independent professionals and small businesses. Operators in financial services: examples of recent M&A and partnerships • Singtel won a digital banking licence in Singapore with its partner Grab. It also applied for one in Malaysia through its joint venture with Grab, together with other investors. • Verizon and Mastercard are partnering to bring 5G to the global payments and commerce industry across a range of use cases (e.g. contactless shopping, autonomous checkout technology, cloud point-of-sale solutions). • Telefónica launched Vivo Pay in Brazil, which complements Vivo Money (consumer credit offering). It is also partnering to launch Movistar Money (a consumer credit service) in Colombia (JV with BBVA) and Mexico (partnership with Banco Sabadell). Verizon Telefónica Orange Singtel • SoftBank is merging its PayPay service with Line Pay (a payment service offered by messaging service company Line Corp). The two payment services have a combined 75 million users. SoftBank • Jio has integrated its services with WhatsApp, offering recharging and payments solutions to its customers. Reliance Jio • STC Pay will be transformed into a digital bank after acquiring a digital banking licence in Saudi Arabia. Also, in 2020, STC Pay received around $200 million in investment from Western Union (implying a $1.2 billion valuation for STC Pay). STC • KT issued $2 billion in digital currency after striking partnerships with several city municipalities. KT • VodaPay Super App, developed in partnership with Alipay, continues to gain traction in South Africa. More than 70 businesses have already signed up or have committed to build their own Mini Programs in the Super App. Vodacom Source: company announcements 28
  29. Cloud and security are the top areas of growth in B2B • Security wins. The pandemic resulted in growing demand for B2B value-added services provided by operators as enterprises pushed forward their digital transformation. According to our Operators in Focus Enterprise Opportunity Survey 2021, security saw the strongest growth in demand from enterprises due to the pandemic; it was highlighted as the primary growth area by 44% of operators surveyed (and more than 50% in North America and the Middle East and North Africa). • Revenue growth in security is in double digits. Most major operators provide security services to their enterprise customers. To boost their presence, some, such as AT&T, Telefónica, Orange and SK Telecom, have acquired security companies in recent years. However, few operators report their security revenues. Importantly, Telefónica and SK Telecom reported double- digit revenue growth in 2020. The contribution of security to total revenues is still low but is relatively high for SK Telecom (7%), boosted by the acquisition of ADT Caps and SK infosec, in 2019. • China leads on cloud revenue growth. Cloud revenue more than doubled year-on-year in 2020 for the three Chinese operators in aggregate, reaching $3.5 billion. Alibaba Cloud – China’s largest provider of public cloud services – had $9 billion revenue in 2020 (30% growth), meaning operators are capturing a growing share of the cloud market. Some 24% of the operator incremental revenue beyond core in China in 2020 came from cloud services. Globally, as operators advance the use of cloud technologies in their networks (a priority for 72% of operators according to our Operators in Focus Network Transformation Survey 2021), cloud offerings for enterprise customers will continue to grow. Strongest growth in demand from enterprises due to Covid-19 pandemic Percentage of operators surveyed (global; N=100) 2% 6% 8% 11% 29% 44% Private wireless networks (4G/5G) SD-WAN services IoT solutions & services 5G connectivity to businesses Cloud infrastructure & solutions Security Source: GSMA Intelligence Operators in Focus Enterprise Opportunity Survey 2021 29
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