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LATIN AMERICA
UPDATE
June 2021
www.nuricumbo.com
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -4.0% -4.4% -5.0%
2021 Economic Growth 5.8% 5.4% 5.0%
Total Vaccinations
(Estimated 2021)
3,400 Million 3,000 Million 2,400 Million
% of population vaccinated
(Estimated 2021)
41% 38% 30%
Oil Price (2021) $55 $65 $85
USA - China
Despite the natural conflicts between
an emerging power and a hegemonic
power, cooperation prevails.
"New Cold War" develops but with
different levels and nuances.
Conflict leads to important military
clashes in the South China Sea and
fast escalation of cyberwar.
Taiwan becomes a key conflict issue.
20%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 1
Optimistic 60%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 2
Neutral 20%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
LATIN AMERICA PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -6.5% -7.7% -9.0%
2021 Economic Growth 5.2% 4.3% 3.2%
Unemployment 9.5% 10.6% 12.5%
PIB per Capita
(USD per annum)
10,000 9,000 7,000
Inequality
(Gini)
0.45 0.47 0.51
Herd Immunity Early 2023 Late 2023 Late 2024
15%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 1
Optimistic 60%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 2
Neutral 25%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
NORTH AMERICA PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall
Mexico: -7.5%
USA: -4.0%
Canada: -6.5%
Mexico: -8.5%
USA: -4.3%
Canada: -7.1%
Mexico: -10.0%
USA: -5.0%
Canada: -7.5%
2021 Economic Growth
México: 6.7%
Estados Unidos: 7.4%
Canadá: 6.6%
México: 5.0%
Estados Unidos: 6.9%
Canadá: 6.1%
México: 3.2%
Estados Unidos: 3.8%
Canadá: 4.5%
Time to Herd Immunity
México: 280 days
Estados Unidos: 100 days
Canadá: 50 days
México: 300 days
Estados Unidos: 130 days
Canadá: 60 days
México: 400 days
Estados Unidos: 200 days
Canadá: 90 days
USMCA
Alignment reached in policies,
interests and visions between the
three trading partners.
There are controversies. Some
investments are canceled but many
others go ahead.
Labor, environmental and regulatory
disputes prove disruptive for most
investments.
Energy Policy
Mexico corrects certain policies that
out it back in the path of cooperation
with Canada and the US.
Mexico stops controversial policy
decisions, although confidence is
badly damaged.
Morena party negotiates with other
20%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 1
Optimistic 40%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 2
Neutral 40%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
MEXICO PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -7.5% -8.5% -11.0%
2021 Economic Growth 6.7% 5.0% 3.2%
Interest Rate 3.25% 4.0% 5.0%
Inflation 3.4% 6.0% 6.5%
Exchange Rate
(USD/MXN)
19.0 21.0 25.0
Governance
New Congress leads to more power
sharing and a renewed institutional
framework.
Lame duck Congress for the next
three years. Major initiatives are
stopped. Progress on key issues is
slow.
Alliance with certain parties allows
controversial constitutional changes
and a more authoritarian approach
towards 2024.
Pemex
Pemex without crisis. Sovereign
credit rating remains stable.
Pemex without crisis but financial
bomb keeps ticking. Sovereign credit
rating deteriorates slightly.
Pemex becomes a major issue and
there is significant impact on
sovereign credit rating.
15%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 1
Optimistic 50%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 2
Neutral 35%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
$5.63 $5.44 $5.22
$0.00
$2.50
$5.00
$7.50
March April May
Brazil
Exchange Rates
$3,731.91 $3,733.55 $3,695.74
$0.00
$1,500.00
$3,000.00
$4,500.00
March April May
Colombia
$20.44 $20.24 $19.93
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
March April May
Mexico
$3.76 $3.79 $3.81
$0.00
$1.50
$3.00
$4.50
March April May
Peru
Source: Exchange Rates UK, 2021.
*USD / PEN
*USD / MXN
*USD / CLP
*USD / BRL
*USD / COP
$720.54 $710.67 $722.93
$0.00
$300.00
$600.00
$900.00
March April May
Chile
*USD / CLP
$91.98 $93.48 $94.61
$0.00
$40.00
$80.00
$120.00
March April May
Argentina
*USD / ARS
Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
40.70% 42.60% 46.30%
0.00%
15.00%
30.00%
45.00%
60.00%
February March April
Argentina
Inflation Rate
5.20%
6.10% 6.76%
0.00%
2.50%
5.00%
7.50%
January February March
Brazil
2.60% 2.38% 2.45%
0.00%
0.90%
1.80%
2.70%
3.60%
March April May
Peru
1.56% 1.51%
1.95%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
February March April
Colombia
2.80% 2.90%
3.30%
0.00%
1.50%
3.00%
4.50%
February March April
Chile
3.76%
4.67%
6.08%
0.00%
2.50%
5.00%
7.50%
February March April
Mexico
$39,520 $40,360 $41,964
$0
$15,000
$30,000
$45,000
$60,000
March April May
Argentina
International Reserves
$355,416 $356,070 $347,413
$0
$120,000
$240,000
$360,000
$480,000
February March April
Brazil
$58,975 $58,901 $59,085
$0
$18,000
$36,000
$54,000
$72,000
February March April
Colombia
$40,220 $42,282
$47,582
$0
$13,000
$26,000
$39,000
$52,000
March April May
Chile
$194,934 $195,268 $194,169
$0
$60,000
$120,000
$180,000
$240,000
March April May
Mexico
$79,922 $77,064 $73,069
$0
$25,000
$50,000
$75,000
$100,000
March April May
Peru
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
47,982.39 49,056.10
59,268.94
0
16,000
32,000
48,000
64,000
March April May
Argentina
Capital Markets
116,633.72 118,893.84 126,215.72
0
35,000
70,000
105,000
140,000
March April May
Brazil
1,316.81 1,250.65 1,200.90
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
March April May
Colombia
47,246.26 48,009.72 50,885.95
0
12,000
24,000
36,000
48,000
March April May
Mexico
4,898.09 4,511.48 4,327.90
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
March April May
Chile
*IPSA:IND
*MEXBOL:IND
*SPBLPGPT:IND
*MERVAL:IND
*IBOV:IND
*COLCAP:IND
Source: Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, 2021.
21,372.03 19,562.77 21,041.71
0
7,000
14,000
21,000
28,000
March April May
Peru
*SPBLPGPT:IND
Foreign Direct Investmet
$11,517 $11,873
$6,663.00
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Argentina
$68,885
$78,162
$69,174
$0
$30,000
$60,000
$90,000
2017 2018 2019
Brazil
$13,836
$11,535
$14,314
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
2017 2018 2019
Colombia
$6,128 $7,323
$11,928
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Chile
$33,030 $37,682
$29,354
$0
$12,000
$24,000
$36,000
$48,000
2017 2018 2019
Mexico
$6,860 $6,488
$8,892
$0
$3,000
$6,000
$9,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2021. *BoP, Million U.S. Dollars at Current Prices
Credit Ratings
Argentina
CCC
(March 9, 2021)
Source: Fitch Ratings, 2021.
Brazil
BB-
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(May 27, 2021)
Colombia
BBB-
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(November 6, 2020)
Chile
A-
With STABLE Outlook
(March 24, 2021)
Mexico
BBB-
With STABLE Outlook
(May 17, 2021)
Peru
BBB+
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 15, 2020)
Credit Ratings
Argentina
Ca
With STABLE Outlook
(September 28, 2020)
Source: Moody’s Investors Service, 2021.
Brazil
Ba2
With STABLE Outlook
(May 15, 2020)
Colombia
Baa2
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 3, 2020)
Chile
A1
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(August 25, 2020)
Mexico
Baa1
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(April 29, 2021)
Peru
A3
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(May 21, 2021)
Credit Ratings
Argentina
CCC+
With STABLE Outlook
(September 7, 2020)
Source: Standard & Poor’s, 2021.
Brazil
BB-
With STABLE Outlook
(December 10, 2020)
Colombia
BB+
With STABLE Outlook
(May 19, 2021)
Chile
A
With STABLE Outlook
(March 24, 2021)
Mexico
BBB
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 3, 2020)
Peru
BBB+
With STABLE Outlook
(November 23, 2020)
Country Presidents
Argentina
President: Alberto Fernandez
Birth: April 2, 1959
In Office Since: December 10, 2019
Political Party: Frente de Todos
Brazil
President: Jair Bolsonaro
Birth: March 21, 1955
In Office Since: January 1, 2019
Political Party: PSL
Colombia
President: Ivan Duque Marquez
Birth: August 1, 1976
In Office Since: August 7, 2018
Political Party: Centro Democratico
Chile
President: Sebastian Piñera E.
Birth: December 1, 1949
In Office Since: March 11, 2018
Political Party: Independent
Mexico
President: Andres Manuel Lopez O.
Birth: November 13, 1953
In Office Since: December 1, 2018
Political Party: Morena
Peru
President: Francisco Sagasti
Birth: October 10, 1944
In Office Since: November 17, 2020
Political Party: Partido Morado
In Mexico, the governing party fails to keep
supermajority in Congress
Mexico City is divided almost by half, after 25
years of left-leaning governments
Mexico’s Electoral Institute (INE) makes a big
reputational win with clean elections
A week after, there is still no official result on the
winner of Peru presidential election
Left-wing candidate Pedro Castillo seems to have a
slight edge in the vote counts
The gap between both candidates
is 0.4% or 49K votes.
Campaign in Nicaragua has been marked by a
record number of opposition leaders arrested
The U.S. will review trade ties with Nicaragua in
case elections are deemed “unfair”
WE ARE NURICUMBO + PARTNERS
COMPANY
PROFIT
Our Firm at a glance
Key Facts Industries
• 50+ CONSULTANTS
• MULTIDISCIPLINARY
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EXPOSURE
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Organizations
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PUBLIC ACCOUNTANTS
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BOARD
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FINANCIAL EXECUTIVES
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BOARD
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COMMERCE
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MANAGEMENT
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For more information: www.nuricumbo.com
BANAMEX FONATUR Y&R ZIMAT NOKIA CIT PFIZER METLIFE LESAFFRE
PWC DELOITTE IPG BOMBARDIER BANORTE +GF+ MERLIN KANDEO SGS
1985 1990 2000 2003 2010 2013 2014 2017 2020
Professional Careers
History
Experience as Independent Consultant Experience as Consulting Group
WE SUPPORT SENIOR MANAGEMENT IN THE
RESOLUTION OF SPECIAL OR CONFIDENTIAL
PROJECTS.
ü Ideal to tackle those projects that are crucial
but sometimes difficult to deliver internally.
ü Teams of highly experienced consultants.
ü Our consultants have on average 20/25
years of professional experience.
ü Reduced learning curve / More productivity.
ü High degree of flexibility.
ü Solid specialization in Finance, Audit, Tax and
Accounting.
ü Big Four / Big Consulting background.
Who are we?
ü Internal and External Audit.
ü Special reviews (financial, process,
operational, compliance, forensic, etc.)
ü Financial Due Diligence for M&A.
ü Tax Compliance.
ü Comisarios. Board Members. Advisory Board.
ü Interim C-Level Executives (CEOs, CFOs, etc.)
ü Interim Project Teams.
ü Specialized Training Programs.
ü Debt/Equity Solutions.
ü Fintech Trusts (Fideicomisos).
How do we help some of our clients?
WHAT WE THINK
Biden Administration and Mexico
The Strategy in Times of Covid
Winning an election does not resolve our problems
The reinvention of big global cities
North America: From shared prosperity to failed state
Will we avoid another lost decade?
Inequality is not a good business
The Lebanese mirror
Wirecard, external audit and the public interest
OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL
Democracy Needs You
Book Review: Why Nations Fail
Book Review: The Value of Everything
Book Review: Freakonomics
Book Review: Elements of Great Managing
To be a leader, but for the right reasons
Vestiga Consultores: Información y pandemia
Historic Lessons of the 1918 Pandemic
Toshiyuki Yasui: Chief Happiness Officer
Oscar Becerril: Cómo superar COVID-19
OTHER
Riesgo Global: Relación Estados Unidos - China
Mexico’s Top 25 CFO’s of 2017
¿Por qué medir la confianza económica?
La Voz del CFO: Rompiendo Paradigmas
La Voz del CFO: Surman y Wika
Nuricumbo + Partners in the Media
CONSULTANT OF THE WEEK
SALVADOR
HERNÁNDEZ
Salvador Hernández
Antecedentes Académicos
• UNAM. Licenciado en Administración. 1978.
• ITAM. Diplomado en Relaciones Industriales. 1983.
Historia Laboral
• Nuricumbo + Partners. Consultor Senior. 2019 -
• Humanzen. Consultor Senior. 2010 -
• Vitro Canceles. Consultor Senior. 2008 - 2010.
• Casa Pedro Domecq. Director Recursos Humanos 1979 - 2008.
Resumen
Consultor con amplia experiencia en procesos de recursos humanos. Ha
trabajado con organizaciones complejas como Bacardi, Telefónica
Movistar, Bridgestone, Resources Global y El Sardinero. Resultados
comprobados durante 4 años en la realización de importantes proyectos
como: formación de RRHH, formación de Mejora Continua, selección de
puestos de dirección media y alta y consultoría de RRHH. Otras áreas de
especialidad incluyen Implementación de procesos ISO
(9001/14001/18001/22000), Mejora continua, Asignación de talento,
Subcontratación, Capacitación, Coaching, Operaciones / Procesos de
fabricación (Lean manufacturing), entre otros.
Idiomas
Español - Nativo
Inglés – Fluido
Sistemas
Microsoft Office
Microsoft Excel
Microsoft Word
Experiencia por Industria
Alimentos y Bebidas
Manufactura
Telecomunicaciones
Servicios Profesionales
Experiencia Funcional
Consultor Senior
Director Recursos HUmanos
LATIN AMERICA OVERVIEW
Land Area
Source: The World Bank, 2018.
2,736,690
8,358,140
1,109,500
743,532
1,943,950
1,280,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Kilometers
Ease of Doing Business Index
126 124
67
59 60
76
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: 1 = Most Business-friendly Regulations
Population Growth
1.0%
0.8%
1.4%
1.2%
1.1%
1.6%
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Annual Percentage
Total Population
44,938.7
211,049.5
50,339.4
18,952.0
127,575.5
32,510.5
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) Thousands; (ii) Total Inhabitants
Urban Population
92%
87%
81%
88%
80% 78%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of Total Population
Poverty Headcount Ratio
1.5%
4.6%
4.9%
0.3%
1.7%
2.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019.
Note: (i) At US$1.90 / Day; (ii) Percentage of Population
Exports of Goods and Services
17.4%
14.3%
15.8%
28.2%
38.8%
24.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of GDP
Foreign Direct Investment
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
A
r
g
e
n
t
i
n
a
B
r
a
z
i
l
C
o
l
o
m
b
i
a
C
h
i
l
e
M
e
x
i
c
o
P
e
r
u
6,663
69,174
14,313
11,928
29,353
8,891
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) Net Inflows; (ii) BoP, Current Million US$
Gross Domestic Product
$445,445.2
$1,839,758.0
$323,615.9 $282,318.2
$1,268,870.5
$226,848.1
$0
$300,000
$600,000
$900,000
$1,200,000
$1,500,000
$1,800,000
$2,100,000
$2,400,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Millions, Current US$
GDP Per Capita
$23,040.3
$15,300.0
$16,804.4
$26,247.4
$20,447.9
$13,416.4
$0.0
$5,000.0
$10,000.0
$15,000.0
$20,000.0
$25,000.0
$30,000.0
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) PPP; (ii) Current International $
GDP Growth
-2.1%
1.1%
3.3%
1.1%
-0.1%
2.2%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Annual Percentage
Gross Savings
15.8%
12.2%
15.7%
18.9%
23.7%
19.1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of GDP
Personal Remittances
$0.0
$10,000.0
$20,000.0
$30,000.0
$40,000.0
A
r
g
e
n
t
i
n
a
B
r
a
z
i
l
C
o
l
o
m
b
i
a
C
h
i
l
e
M
e
x
i
c
o
P
e
r
u
$528.3 $3,213.6
$6,761.9
$70.0
$39,021.8
$3,326.0
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) Received; (ii) Millions, Current US$
Total Reserves
$44,880.6
$356,886.4
$52,652.7
$40,655.5
$183,056.1
$67,711.5
$0.0
$50,000.0
$100,000.0
$150,000.0
$200,000.0
$250,000.0
$300,000.0
$350,000.0
$400,000.0
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) Includes Gold; (ii) Millions, Current US$
Revenue
18.8%
29.7%
24.2%
21.4%
18.6%
19.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) Excluding Grants; (ii) Percentage of GDP
Government Expenditure on Education
5.5%
6.3%
4.5%
5.4%
4.5%
3.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019.
Note: Percentage of GDP
Labor Force
Source: The World Bank, 2020.
19,180.3
99,843.0
24,802.3
8,859.8
53,978.6
16,182.3
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Thousands
Labor Force (Female)
43.3% 43.9% 42.7% 42.4%
38.5%
45.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of Total Labor Force
Unemployment
11.7%
13.7%
15.4%
11.5%
4.7%
6.2%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2020.
Note: (i) Percentage of Total Labor Force; (ii) Modeled ILO Estimate
Energy Use
Source: The World Bank, 2014 - 2015.
2,030
1,496
724
2,006
1,537
790
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Kg of Oil Equivalent per Capita
Renewable Electricity Output
28.1%
74.0%
68.2%
43.6%
15.4%
52.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2015.
Note: Percentage of Total Electricity Output
Population Living in Slums
14.7%
16.3%
27.8%
8.8%
16.0%
33.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2018.
Note: Percentage of Urban Population
External Debt Stocks
65.3%
31.8%
44.2%
38.1%
29.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of GNI
Bank Capital to Assets Ratio
13.5%
10.2%
17.0%
7.5%
11.0%
12.9%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage
Bank Nonperforming Loans
to Total Gross Loans
5.7%
3.1%
4.2%
2.1% 2.1%
3.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage
Deposit Interest Rate
29.3%
2.2%
3.4%
0.9% 1.5% 1.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2020.
Note: Percentage
Lending Interest Rate
29.4% 29.0%
9.9%
4.2%
6.3%
12.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2020.
Note: Percentage
Listed Domestic Companies
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
91
324
66
203
139
196
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Total
Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic
Companies
$39,393.54
$1,187,361.69
$132,040.28
$203,791.65
$413,618.82
$98,964.96
$0.0
$200,000.0
$400,000.0
$600,000.0
$800,000.0
$1,000,000.0
$1,200,000.0
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) Millions; (ii) Current US$
Strength of Legal Rights Index
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
2 2
11
4
10
7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: 0 = Weak to 12 = Strong
Military Expenditure
1.9%
3.9%
11.0%
7.2%
2.0%
5.4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of General Government Expenditure
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Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. June 2021.

  • 2. GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic 2020 Economic Fall -4.0% -4.4% -5.0% 2021 Economic Growth 5.8% 5.4% 5.0% Total Vaccinations (Estimated 2021) 3,400 Million 3,000 Million 2,400 Million % of population vaccinated (Estimated 2021) 41% 38% 30% Oil Price (2021) $55 $65 $85 USA - China Despite the natural conflicts between an emerging power and a hegemonic power, cooperation prevails. "New Cold War" develops but with different levels and nuances. Conflict leads to important military clashes in the South China Sea and fast escalation of cyberwar. Taiwan becomes a key conflict issue. 20% Estimated Probability Scenario 1 Optimistic 60% Estimated Probability Scenario 2 Neutral 20% Estimated Probability Scenario 3 Pesimistic
  • 3. LATIN AMERICA PERSPECTIVE Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic 2020 Economic Fall -6.5% -7.7% -9.0% 2021 Economic Growth 5.2% 4.3% 3.2% Unemployment 9.5% 10.6% 12.5% PIB per Capita (USD per annum) 10,000 9,000 7,000 Inequality (Gini) 0.45 0.47 0.51 Herd Immunity Early 2023 Late 2023 Late 2024 15% Estimated Probability Scenario 1 Optimistic 60% Estimated Probability Scenario 2 Neutral 25% Estimated Probability Scenario 3 Pesimistic
  • 4. NORTH AMERICA PERSPECTIVE Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic 2020 Economic Fall Mexico: -7.5% USA: -4.0% Canada: -6.5% Mexico: -8.5% USA: -4.3% Canada: -7.1% Mexico: -10.0% USA: -5.0% Canada: -7.5% 2021 Economic Growth México: 6.7% Estados Unidos: 7.4% Canadá: 6.6% México: 5.0% Estados Unidos: 6.9% Canadá: 6.1% México: 3.2% Estados Unidos: 3.8% Canadá: 4.5% Time to Herd Immunity México: 280 days Estados Unidos: 100 days Canadá: 50 days México: 300 days Estados Unidos: 130 days Canadá: 60 days México: 400 days Estados Unidos: 200 days Canadá: 90 days USMCA Alignment reached in policies, interests and visions between the three trading partners. There are controversies. Some investments are canceled but many others go ahead. Labor, environmental and regulatory disputes prove disruptive for most investments. Energy Policy Mexico corrects certain policies that out it back in the path of cooperation with Canada and the US. Mexico stops controversial policy decisions, although confidence is badly damaged. Morena party negotiates with other 20% Estimated Probability Scenario 1 Optimistic 40% Estimated Probability Scenario 2 Neutral 40% Estimated Probability Scenario 3 Pesimistic
  • 5. MEXICO PERSPECTIVE Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic 2020 Economic Fall -7.5% -8.5% -11.0% 2021 Economic Growth 6.7% 5.0% 3.2% Interest Rate 3.25% 4.0% 5.0% Inflation 3.4% 6.0% 6.5% Exchange Rate (USD/MXN) 19.0 21.0 25.0 Governance New Congress leads to more power sharing and a renewed institutional framework. Lame duck Congress for the next three years. Major initiatives are stopped. Progress on key issues is slow. Alliance with certain parties allows controversial constitutional changes and a more authoritarian approach towards 2024. Pemex Pemex without crisis. Sovereign credit rating remains stable. Pemex without crisis but financial bomb keeps ticking. Sovereign credit rating deteriorates slightly. Pemex becomes a major issue and there is significant impact on sovereign credit rating. 15% Estimated Probability Scenario 1 Optimistic 50% Estimated Probability Scenario 2 Neutral 35% Estimated Probability Scenario 3 Pesimistic
  • 6. $5.63 $5.44 $5.22 $0.00 $2.50 $5.00 $7.50 March April May Brazil Exchange Rates $3,731.91 $3,733.55 $3,695.74 $0.00 $1,500.00 $3,000.00 $4,500.00 March April May Colombia $20.44 $20.24 $19.93 $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 March April May Mexico $3.76 $3.79 $3.81 $0.00 $1.50 $3.00 $4.50 March April May Peru Source: Exchange Rates UK, 2021. *USD / PEN *USD / MXN *USD / CLP *USD / BRL *USD / COP $720.54 $710.67 $722.93 $0.00 $300.00 $600.00 $900.00 March April May Chile *USD / CLP $91.98 $93.48 $94.61 $0.00 $40.00 $80.00 $120.00 March April May Argentina *USD / ARS
  • 7. Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021. 40.70% 42.60% 46.30% 0.00% 15.00% 30.00% 45.00% 60.00% February March April Argentina Inflation Rate 5.20% 6.10% 6.76% 0.00% 2.50% 5.00% 7.50% January February March Brazil 2.60% 2.38% 2.45% 0.00% 0.90% 1.80% 2.70% 3.60% March April May Peru 1.56% 1.51% 1.95% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% February March April Colombia 2.80% 2.90% 3.30% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% February March April Chile 3.76% 4.67% 6.08% 0.00% 2.50% 5.00% 7.50% February March April Mexico
  • 8. $39,520 $40,360 $41,964 $0 $15,000 $30,000 $45,000 $60,000 March April May Argentina International Reserves $355,416 $356,070 $347,413 $0 $120,000 $240,000 $360,000 $480,000 February March April Brazil $58,975 $58,901 $59,085 $0 $18,000 $36,000 $54,000 $72,000 February March April Colombia $40,220 $42,282 $47,582 $0 $13,000 $26,000 $39,000 $52,000 March April May Chile $194,934 $195,268 $194,169 $0 $60,000 $120,000 $180,000 $240,000 March April May Mexico $79,922 $77,064 $73,069 $0 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 March April May Peru *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
  • 9. 47,982.39 49,056.10 59,268.94 0 16,000 32,000 48,000 64,000 March April May Argentina Capital Markets 116,633.72 118,893.84 126,215.72 0 35,000 70,000 105,000 140,000 March April May Brazil 1,316.81 1,250.65 1,200.90 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 March April May Colombia 47,246.26 48,009.72 50,885.95 0 12,000 24,000 36,000 48,000 March April May Mexico 4,898.09 4,511.48 4,327.90 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 March April May Chile *IPSA:IND *MEXBOL:IND *SPBLPGPT:IND *MERVAL:IND *IBOV:IND *COLCAP:IND Source: Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, 2021. 21,372.03 19,562.77 21,041.71 0 7,000 14,000 21,000 28,000 March April May Peru *SPBLPGPT:IND
  • 10. Foreign Direct Investmet $11,517 $11,873 $6,663.00 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Argentina $68,885 $78,162 $69,174 $0 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 2017 2018 2019 Brazil $13,836 $11,535 $14,314 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 2017 2018 2019 Colombia $6,128 $7,323 $11,928 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Chile $33,030 $37,682 $29,354 $0 $12,000 $24,000 $36,000 $48,000 2017 2018 2019 Mexico $6,860 $6,488 $8,892 $0 $3,000 $6,000 $9,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Peru Source: The World Bank, 2021. *BoP, Million U.S. Dollars at Current Prices
  • 11. Credit Ratings Argentina CCC (March 9, 2021) Source: Fitch Ratings, 2021. Brazil BB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (May 27, 2021) Colombia BBB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (November 6, 2020) Chile A- With STABLE Outlook (March 24, 2021) Mexico BBB- With STABLE Outlook (May 17, 2021) Peru BBB+ With NEGATIVE Outlook (December 15, 2020)
  • 12. Credit Ratings Argentina Ca With STABLE Outlook (September 28, 2020) Source: Moody’s Investors Service, 2021. Brazil Ba2 With STABLE Outlook (May 15, 2020) Colombia Baa2 With NEGATIVE Outlook (December 3, 2020) Chile A1 With NEGATIVE Outlook (August 25, 2020) Mexico Baa1 With NEGATIVE Outlook (April 29, 2021) Peru A3 With NEGATIVE Outlook (May 21, 2021)
  • 13. Credit Ratings Argentina CCC+ With STABLE Outlook (September 7, 2020) Source: Standard & Poor’s, 2021. Brazil BB- With STABLE Outlook (December 10, 2020) Colombia BB+ With STABLE Outlook (May 19, 2021) Chile A With STABLE Outlook (March 24, 2021) Mexico BBB With NEGATIVE Outlook (December 3, 2020) Peru BBB+ With STABLE Outlook (November 23, 2020)
  • 14. Country Presidents Argentina President: Alberto Fernandez Birth: April 2, 1959 In Office Since: December 10, 2019 Political Party: Frente de Todos Brazil President: Jair Bolsonaro Birth: March 21, 1955 In Office Since: January 1, 2019 Political Party: PSL Colombia President: Ivan Duque Marquez Birth: August 1, 1976 In Office Since: August 7, 2018 Political Party: Centro Democratico Chile President: Sebastian Piñera E. Birth: December 1, 1949 In Office Since: March 11, 2018 Political Party: Independent Mexico President: Andres Manuel Lopez O. Birth: November 13, 1953 In Office Since: December 1, 2018 Political Party: Morena Peru President: Francisco Sagasti Birth: October 10, 1944 In Office Since: November 17, 2020 Political Party: Partido Morado
  • 15. In Mexico, the governing party fails to keep supermajority in Congress
  • 16. Mexico City is divided almost by half, after 25 years of left-leaning governments
  • 17. Mexico’s Electoral Institute (INE) makes a big reputational win with clean elections
  • 18. A week after, there is still no official result on the winner of Peru presidential election
  • 19. Left-wing candidate Pedro Castillo seems to have a slight edge in the vote counts
  • 20. The gap between both candidates is 0.4% or 49K votes.
  • 21. Campaign in Nicaragua has been marked by a record number of opposition leaders arrested
  • 22. The U.S. will review trade ties with Nicaragua in case elections are deemed “unfair”
  • 23. WE ARE NURICUMBO + PARTNERS
  • 24. COMPANY PROFIT Our Firm at a glance Key Facts Industries • 50+ CONSULTANTS • MULTIDISCIPLINARY • BIG 4 BACKGROUND • INTERNATIONAL EXPOSURE • ACTIVE ACROSS MEXICO • ABLE TO TRAVEL • FLEXIBILITY • BILINGUAL / BICULTURAL Professional Organizations Our Service Portfolio • MANUFACTURING • FINANCIAL SERVICES • PROFESSIONAL SERVICES • TRADING • RETAIL • ADVERTISING • EDUCATION • PRIVATE EQUITY • FAMILY BUSINESS • MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC ACCOUNTANTS • MEXICO CITY ACCOUNTANCY BOARD • MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF FINANCIAL EXECUTIVES • ILLINOIS ACCOUNTANCY BOARD • AMERICAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE • EXTERNAL AUDIT • INTERNAL AUDIT • PART TIME CFO’S • INTERIM MANAGEMENT • FORENSIC • TAX • TRANSFORMATIONS • ADVISORY BOARD For more information: www.nuricumbo.com BANAMEX FONATUR Y&R ZIMAT NOKIA CIT PFIZER METLIFE LESAFFRE PWC DELOITTE IPG BOMBARDIER BANORTE +GF+ MERLIN KANDEO SGS 1985 1990 2000 2003 2010 2013 2014 2017 2020 Professional Careers History Experience as Independent Consultant Experience as Consulting Group
  • 25. WE SUPPORT SENIOR MANAGEMENT IN THE RESOLUTION OF SPECIAL OR CONFIDENTIAL PROJECTS. ü Ideal to tackle those projects that are crucial but sometimes difficult to deliver internally. ü Teams of highly experienced consultants. ü Our consultants have on average 20/25 years of professional experience. ü Reduced learning curve / More productivity. ü High degree of flexibility. ü Solid specialization in Finance, Audit, Tax and Accounting. ü Big Four / Big Consulting background. Who are we?
  • 26. ü Internal and External Audit. ü Special reviews (financial, process, operational, compliance, forensic, etc.) ü Financial Due Diligence for M&A. ü Tax Compliance. ü Comisarios. Board Members. Advisory Board. ü Interim C-Level Executives (CEOs, CFOs, etc.) ü Interim Project Teams. ü Specialized Training Programs. ü Debt/Equity Solutions. ü Fintech Trusts (Fideicomisos). How do we help some of our clients?
  • 27. WHAT WE THINK Biden Administration and Mexico The Strategy in Times of Covid Winning an election does not resolve our problems The reinvention of big global cities North America: From shared prosperity to failed state Will we avoid another lost decade? Inequality is not a good business The Lebanese mirror Wirecard, external audit and the public interest OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL Democracy Needs You Book Review: Why Nations Fail Book Review: The Value of Everything Book Review: Freakonomics Book Review: Elements of Great Managing To be a leader, but for the right reasons Vestiga Consultores: Información y pandemia Historic Lessons of the 1918 Pandemic Toshiyuki Yasui: Chief Happiness Officer Oscar Becerril: Cómo superar COVID-19 OTHER Riesgo Global: Relación Estados Unidos - China Mexico’s Top 25 CFO’s of 2017 ¿Por qué medir la confianza económica? La Voz del CFO: Rompiendo Paradigmas La Voz del CFO: Surman y Wika Nuricumbo + Partners in the Media
  • 28. CONSULTANT OF THE WEEK SALVADOR HERNÁNDEZ
  • 29. Salvador Hernández Antecedentes Académicos • UNAM. Licenciado en Administración. 1978. • ITAM. Diplomado en Relaciones Industriales. 1983. Historia Laboral • Nuricumbo + Partners. Consultor Senior. 2019 - • Humanzen. Consultor Senior. 2010 - • Vitro Canceles. Consultor Senior. 2008 - 2010. • Casa Pedro Domecq. Director Recursos Humanos 1979 - 2008. Resumen Consultor con amplia experiencia en procesos de recursos humanos. Ha trabajado con organizaciones complejas como Bacardi, Telefónica Movistar, Bridgestone, Resources Global y El Sardinero. Resultados comprobados durante 4 años en la realización de importantes proyectos como: formación de RRHH, formación de Mejora Continua, selección de puestos de dirección media y alta y consultoría de RRHH. Otras áreas de especialidad incluyen Implementación de procesos ISO (9001/14001/18001/22000), Mejora continua, Asignación de talento, Subcontratación, Capacitación, Coaching, Operaciones / Procesos de fabricación (Lean manufacturing), entre otros. Idiomas Español - Nativo Inglés – Fluido Sistemas Microsoft Office Microsoft Excel Microsoft Word Experiencia por Industria Alimentos y Bebidas Manufactura Telecomunicaciones Servicios Profesionales Experiencia Funcional Consultor Senior Director Recursos HUmanos
  • 31. Land Area Source: The World Bank, 2018. 2,736,690 8,358,140 1,109,500 743,532 1,943,950 1,280,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kilometers
  • 32. Ease of Doing Business Index 126 124 67 59 60 76 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: 1 = Most Business-friendly Regulations
  • 33. Population Growth 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.6% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Annual Percentage
  • 34. Total Population 44,938.7 211,049.5 50,339.4 18,952.0 127,575.5 32,510.5 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Thousands; (ii) Total Inhabitants
  • 35. Urban Population 92% 87% 81% 88% 80% 78% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of Total Population
  • 36. Poverty Headcount Ratio 1.5% 4.6% 4.9% 0.3% 1.7% 2.2% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: (i) At US$1.90 / Day; (ii) Percentage of Population
  • 37. Exports of Goods and Services 17.4% 14.3% 15.8% 28.2% 38.8% 24.2% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  • 39. Gross Domestic Product $445,445.2 $1,839,758.0 $323,615.9 $282,318.2 $1,268,870.5 $226,848.1 $0 $300,000 $600,000 $900,000 $1,200,000 $1,500,000 $1,800,000 $2,100,000 $2,400,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Millions, Current US$
  • 40. GDP Per Capita $23,040.3 $15,300.0 $16,804.4 $26,247.4 $20,447.9 $13,416.4 $0.0 $5,000.0 $10,000.0 $15,000.0 $20,000.0 $25,000.0 $30,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) PPP; (ii) Current International $
  • 41. GDP Growth -2.1% 1.1% 3.3% 1.1% -0.1% 2.2% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Annual Percentage
  • 42. Gross Savings 15.8% 12.2% 15.7% 18.9% 23.7% 19.1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  • 45. Revenue 18.8% 29.7% 24.2% 21.4% 18.6% 19.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Excluding Grants; (ii) Percentage of GDP
  • 46. Government Expenditure on Education 5.5% 6.3% 4.5% 5.4% 4.5% 3.8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  • 47. Labor Force Source: The World Bank, 2020. 19,180.3 99,843.0 24,802.3 8,859.8 53,978.6 16,182.3 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Thousands
  • 48. Labor Force (Female) 43.3% 43.9% 42.7% 42.4% 38.5% 45.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of Total Labor Force
  • 49. Unemployment 11.7% 13.7% 15.4% 11.5% 4.7% 6.2% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2020. Note: (i) Percentage of Total Labor Force; (ii) Modeled ILO Estimate
  • 50. Energy Use Source: The World Bank, 2014 - 2015. 2,030 1,496 724 2,006 1,537 790 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kg of Oil Equivalent per Capita
  • 51. Renewable Electricity Output 28.1% 74.0% 68.2% 43.6% 15.4% 52.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2015. Note: Percentage of Total Electricity Output
  • 52. Population Living in Slums 14.7% 16.3% 27.8% 8.8% 16.0% 33.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Percentage of Urban Population
  • 53. External Debt Stocks 65.3% 31.8% 44.2% 38.1% 29.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of GNI
  • 54. Bank Capital to Assets Ratio 13.5% 10.2% 17.0% 7.5% 11.0% 12.9% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage
  • 55. Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total Gross Loans 5.7% 3.1% 4.2% 2.1% 2.1% 3.4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage
  • 56. Deposit Interest Rate 29.3% 2.2% 3.4% 0.9% 1.5% 1.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2020. Note: Percentage
  • 57. Lending Interest Rate 29.4% 29.0% 9.9% 4.2% 6.3% 12.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2020. Note: Percentage
  • 58. Listed Domestic Companies Source: The World Bank, 2019. 91 324 66 203 139 196 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Total
  • 59. Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic Companies $39,393.54 $1,187,361.69 $132,040.28 $203,791.65 $413,618.82 $98,964.96 $0.0 $200,000.0 $400,000.0 $600,000.0 $800,000.0 $1,000,000.0 $1,200,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Millions; (ii) Current US$
  • 60. Strength of Legal Rights Index Source: The World Bank, 2019. 2 2 11 4 10 7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: 0 = Weak to 12 = Strong
  • 61. Military Expenditure 1.9% 3.9% 11.0% 7.2% 2.0% 5.4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of General Government Expenditure
  • 62. WE ARE READY TO HELP YOU AND YOUR BUSINESS. EMAIL contacto@nuricumbo.com WHATSAPP +52.55.5453.6309 SCHEDULE A CALL Click here to choose a date and time OUR OFFICE Paseo de la Reforma 505 Col. Cuaúhtemoc. C.P. 06500, Mexico City. Let’s discuss further