Nuricumbo + Partners is specialized on subjects such as financial due diligence for M&A, special audits, independent process assessments, debt/equity solutions, on-demand financial talent, anti-corruption initiatives, enterprise risk management, and corporate governance. We have become trusted business advisors for companies of all sizes, providing direct support to CEOs and CFOs in special or confidential projects.
2. GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -4.0% -4.4% -5.0%
2021 Economic Growth 5.8% 5.4% 5.0%
Total Vaccinations
(Estimated 2021)
3,400 Million 3,000 Million 2,400 Million
% of population vaccinated
(Estimated 2021)
41% 38% 30%
Oil Price (2021) $55 $65 $85
USA - China
Despite the natural conflicts between
an emerging power and a hegemonic
power, cooperation prevails.
"New Cold War" develops but with
different levels and nuances.
Conflict leads to important military
clashes in the South China Sea and
fast escalation of cyberwar.
Taiwan becomes a key conflict issue.
20%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 1
Optimistic 60%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 2
Neutral 20%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
3. LATIN AMERICA PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -6.5% -7.7% -9.0%
2021 Economic Growth 5.2% 4.3% 3.2%
Unemployment 9.5% 10.6% 12.5%
PIB per Capita
(USD per annum)
10,000 9,000 7,000
Inequality
(Gini)
0.45 0.47 0.51
Herd Immunity Early 2023 Late 2023 Late 2024
15%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 1
Optimistic 60%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 2
Neutral 25%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
4. NORTH AMERICA PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall
Mexico: -7.5%
USA: -4.0%
Canada: -6.5%
Mexico: -8.5%
USA: -4.3%
Canada: -7.1%
Mexico: -10.0%
USA: -5.0%
Canada: -7.5%
2021 Economic Growth
México: 6.7%
Estados Unidos: 7.4%
Canadá: 6.6%
México: 5.0%
Estados Unidos: 6.9%
Canadá: 6.1%
México: 3.2%
Estados Unidos: 3.8%
Canadá: 4.5%
Time to Herd Immunity
México: 280 days
Estados Unidos: 100 days
Canadá: 50 days
México: 300 days
Estados Unidos: 130 days
Canadá: 60 days
México: 400 days
Estados Unidos: 200 days
Canadá: 90 days
USMCA
Alignment reached in policies,
interests and visions between the
three trading partners.
There are controversies. Some
investments are canceled but many
others go ahead.
Labor, environmental and regulatory
disputes prove disruptive for most
investments.
Energy Policy
Mexico corrects certain policies that
out it back in the path of cooperation
with Canada and the US.
Mexico stops controversial policy
decisions, although confidence is
badly damaged.
Morena party negotiates with other
20%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 1
Optimistic 40%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 2
Neutral 40%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
5. MEXICO PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -7.5% -8.5% -11.0%
2021 Economic Growth 6.7% 5.0% 3.2%
Interest Rate 3.25% 4.0% 5.0%
Inflation 3.4% 6.0% 6.5%
Exchange Rate
(USD/MXN)
19.0 21.0 25.0
Governance
New Congress leads to more power
sharing and a renewed institutional
framework.
Lame duck Congress for the next
three years. Major initiatives are
stopped. Progress on key issues is
slow.
Alliance with certain parties allows
controversial constitutional changes
and a more authoritarian approach
towards 2024.
Pemex
Pemex without crisis. Sovereign
credit rating remains stable.
Pemex without crisis but financial
bomb keeps ticking. Sovereign credit
rating deteriorates slightly.
Pemex becomes a major issue and
there is significant impact on
sovereign credit rating.
15%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 1
Optimistic 50%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 2
Neutral 35%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
6. $5.63 $5.44 $5.22
$0.00
$2.50
$5.00
$7.50
March April May
Brazil
Exchange Rates
$3,731.91 $3,733.55 $3,695.74
$0.00
$1,500.00
$3,000.00
$4,500.00
March April May
Colombia
$20.44 $20.24 $19.93
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
March April May
Mexico
$3.76 $3.79 $3.81
$0.00
$1.50
$3.00
$4.50
March April May
Peru
Source: Exchange Rates UK, 2021.
*USD / PEN
*USD / MXN
*USD / CLP
*USD / BRL
*USD / COP
$720.54 $710.67 $722.93
$0.00
$300.00
$600.00
$900.00
March April May
Chile
*USD / CLP
$91.98 $93.48 $94.61
$0.00
$40.00
$80.00
$120.00
March April May
Argentina
*USD / ARS
7. Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
40.70% 42.60% 46.30%
0.00%
15.00%
30.00%
45.00%
60.00%
February March April
Argentina
Inflation Rate
5.20%
6.10% 6.76%
0.00%
2.50%
5.00%
7.50%
January February March
Brazil
2.60% 2.38% 2.45%
0.00%
0.90%
1.80%
2.70%
3.60%
March April May
Peru
1.56% 1.51%
1.95%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
February March April
Colombia
2.80% 2.90%
3.30%
0.00%
1.50%
3.00%
4.50%
February March April
Chile
3.76%
4.67%
6.08%
0.00%
2.50%
5.00%
7.50%
February March April
Mexico
8. $39,520 $40,360 $41,964
$0
$15,000
$30,000
$45,000
$60,000
March April May
Argentina
International Reserves
$355,416 $356,070 $347,413
$0
$120,000
$240,000
$360,000
$480,000
February March April
Brazil
$58,975 $58,901 $59,085
$0
$18,000
$36,000
$54,000
$72,000
February March April
Colombia
$40,220 $42,282
$47,582
$0
$13,000
$26,000
$39,000
$52,000
March April May
Chile
$194,934 $195,268 $194,169
$0
$60,000
$120,000
$180,000
$240,000
March April May
Mexico
$79,922 $77,064 $73,069
$0
$25,000
$50,000
$75,000
$100,000
March April May
Peru
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
9. 47,982.39 49,056.10
59,268.94
0
16,000
32,000
48,000
64,000
March April May
Argentina
Capital Markets
116,633.72 118,893.84 126,215.72
0
35,000
70,000
105,000
140,000
March April May
Brazil
1,316.81 1,250.65 1,200.90
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
March April May
Colombia
47,246.26 48,009.72 50,885.95
0
12,000
24,000
36,000
48,000
March April May
Mexico
4,898.09 4,511.48 4,327.90
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
March April May
Chile
*IPSA:IND
*MEXBOL:IND
*SPBLPGPT:IND
*MERVAL:IND
*IBOV:IND
*COLCAP:IND
Source: Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, 2021.
21,372.03 19,562.77 21,041.71
0
7,000
14,000
21,000
28,000
March April May
Peru
*SPBLPGPT:IND
10. Foreign Direct Investmet
$11,517 $11,873
$6,663.00
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Argentina
$68,885
$78,162
$69,174
$0
$30,000
$60,000
$90,000
2017 2018 2019
Brazil
$13,836
$11,535
$14,314
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
2017 2018 2019
Colombia
$6,128 $7,323
$11,928
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Chile
$33,030 $37,682
$29,354
$0
$12,000
$24,000
$36,000
$48,000
2017 2018 2019
Mexico
$6,860 $6,488
$8,892
$0
$3,000
$6,000
$9,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2021. *BoP, Million U.S. Dollars at Current Prices
11. Credit Ratings
Argentina
CCC
(March 9, 2021)
Source: Fitch Ratings, 2021.
Brazil
BB-
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(May 27, 2021)
Colombia
BBB-
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(November 6, 2020)
Chile
A-
With STABLE Outlook
(March 24, 2021)
Mexico
BBB-
With STABLE Outlook
(May 17, 2021)
Peru
BBB+
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 15, 2020)
12. Credit Ratings
Argentina
Ca
With STABLE Outlook
(September 28, 2020)
Source: Moody’s Investors Service, 2021.
Brazil
Ba2
With STABLE Outlook
(May 15, 2020)
Colombia
Baa2
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 3, 2020)
Chile
A1
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(August 25, 2020)
Mexico
Baa1
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(April 29, 2021)
Peru
A3
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(May 21, 2021)
13. Credit Ratings
Argentina
CCC+
With STABLE Outlook
(September 7, 2020)
Source: Standard & Poor’s, 2021.
Brazil
BB-
With STABLE Outlook
(December 10, 2020)
Colombia
BB+
With STABLE Outlook
(May 19, 2021)
Chile
A
With STABLE Outlook
(March 24, 2021)
Mexico
BBB
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 3, 2020)
Peru
BBB+
With STABLE Outlook
(November 23, 2020)
14. Country Presidents
Argentina
President: Alberto Fernandez
Birth: April 2, 1959
In Office Since: December 10, 2019
Political Party: Frente de Todos
Brazil
President: Jair Bolsonaro
Birth: March 21, 1955
In Office Since: January 1, 2019
Political Party: PSL
Colombia
President: Ivan Duque Marquez
Birth: August 1, 1976
In Office Since: August 7, 2018
Political Party: Centro Democratico
Chile
President: Sebastian Piñera E.
Birth: December 1, 1949
In Office Since: March 11, 2018
Political Party: Independent
Mexico
President: Andres Manuel Lopez O.
Birth: November 13, 1953
In Office Since: December 1, 2018
Political Party: Morena
Peru
President: Francisco Sagasti
Birth: October 10, 1944
In Office Since: November 17, 2020
Political Party: Partido Morado
15. In Mexico, the governing party fails to keep
supermajority in Congress
16. Mexico City is divided almost by half, after 25
years of left-leaning governments
24. COMPANY
PROFIT
Our Firm at a glance
Key Facts Industries
• 50+ CONSULTANTS
• MULTIDISCIPLINARY
• BIG 4 BACKGROUND
• INTERNATIONAL
EXPOSURE
• ACTIVE ACROSS MEXICO
• ABLE TO TRAVEL
• FLEXIBILITY
• BILINGUAL / BICULTURAL
Professional
Organizations
Our Service
Portfolio
• MANUFACTURING
• FINANCIAL SERVICES
• PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
• TRADING
• RETAIL
• ADVERTISING
• EDUCATION
• PRIVATE EQUITY
• FAMILY BUSINESS
• MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF
PUBLIC ACCOUNTANTS
• MEXICO CITY ACCOUNTANCY
BOARD
• MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF
FINANCIAL EXECUTIVES
• ILLINOIS ACCOUNTANCY
BOARD
• AMERICAN CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE
• EXTERNAL AUDIT
• INTERNAL AUDIT
• PART TIME CFO’S
• INTERIM
MANAGEMENT
• FORENSIC
• TAX
• TRANSFORMATIONS
• ADVISORY BOARD
For more information: www.nuricumbo.com
BANAMEX FONATUR Y&R ZIMAT NOKIA CIT PFIZER METLIFE LESAFFRE
PWC DELOITTE IPG BOMBARDIER BANORTE +GF+ MERLIN KANDEO SGS
1985 1990 2000 2003 2010 2013 2014 2017 2020
Professional Careers
History
Experience as Independent Consultant Experience as Consulting Group
25. WE SUPPORT SENIOR MANAGEMENT IN THE
RESOLUTION OF SPECIAL OR CONFIDENTIAL
PROJECTS.
ü Ideal to tackle those projects that are crucial
but sometimes difficult to deliver internally.
ü Teams of highly experienced consultants.
ü Our consultants have on average 20/25
years of professional experience.
ü Reduced learning curve / More productivity.
ü High degree of flexibility.
ü Solid specialization in Finance, Audit, Tax and
Accounting.
ü Big Four / Big Consulting background.
Who are we?
26. ü Internal and External Audit.
ü Special reviews (financial, process,
operational, compliance, forensic, etc.)
ü Financial Due Diligence for M&A.
ü Tax Compliance.
ü Comisarios. Board Members. Advisory Board.
ü Interim C-Level Executives (CEOs, CFOs, etc.)
ü Interim Project Teams.
ü Specialized Training Programs.
ü Debt/Equity Solutions.
ü Fintech Trusts (Fideicomisos).
How do we help some of our clients?
27. WHAT WE THINK
Biden Administration and Mexico
The Strategy in Times of Covid
Winning an election does not resolve our problems
The reinvention of big global cities
North America: From shared prosperity to failed state
Will we avoid another lost decade?
Inequality is not a good business
The Lebanese mirror
Wirecard, external audit and the public interest
OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL
Democracy Needs You
Book Review: Why Nations Fail
Book Review: The Value of Everything
Book Review: Freakonomics
Book Review: Elements of Great Managing
To be a leader, but for the right reasons
Vestiga Consultores: Información y pandemia
Historic Lessons of the 1918 Pandemic
Toshiyuki Yasui: Chief Happiness Officer
Oscar Becerril: Cómo superar COVID-19
OTHER
Riesgo Global: Relación Estados Unidos - China
Mexico’s Top 25 CFO’s of 2017
¿Por qué medir la confianza económica?
La Voz del CFO: Rompiendo Paradigmas
La Voz del CFO: Surman y Wika
Nuricumbo + Partners in the Media
29. Salvador Hernández
Antecedentes Académicos
• UNAM. Licenciado en Administración. 1978.
• ITAM. Diplomado en Relaciones Industriales. 1983.
Historia Laboral
• Nuricumbo + Partners. Consultor Senior. 2019 -
• Humanzen. Consultor Senior. 2010 -
• Vitro Canceles. Consultor Senior. 2008 - 2010.
• Casa Pedro Domecq. Director Recursos Humanos 1979 - 2008.
Resumen
Consultor con amplia experiencia en procesos de recursos humanos. Ha
trabajado con organizaciones complejas como Bacardi, Telefónica
Movistar, Bridgestone, Resources Global y El Sardinero. Resultados
comprobados durante 4 años en la realización de importantes proyectos
como: formación de RRHH, formación de Mejora Continua, selección de
puestos de dirección media y alta y consultoría de RRHH. Otras áreas de
especialidad incluyen Implementación de procesos ISO
(9001/14001/18001/22000), Mejora continua, Asignación de talento,
Subcontratación, Capacitación, Coaching, Operaciones / Procesos de
fabricación (Lean manufacturing), entre otros.
Idiomas
Español - Nativo
Inglés – Fluido
Sistemas
Microsoft Office
Microsoft Excel
Microsoft Word
Experiencia por Industria
Alimentos y Bebidas
Manufactura
Telecomunicaciones
Servicios Profesionales
Experiencia Funcional
Consultor Senior
Director Recursos HUmanos
31. Land Area
Source: The World Bank, 2018.
2,736,690
8,358,140
1,109,500
743,532
1,943,950
1,280,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Kilometers
32. Ease of Doing Business Index
126 124
67
59 60
76
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: 1 = Most Business-friendly Regulations
37. Exports of Goods and Services
17.4%
14.3%
15.8%
28.2%
38.8%
24.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of GDP
39. Gross Domestic Product
$445,445.2
$1,839,758.0
$323,615.9 $282,318.2
$1,268,870.5
$226,848.1
$0
$300,000
$600,000
$900,000
$1,200,000
$1,500,000
$1,800,000
$2,100,000
$2,400,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Millions, Current US$
46. Government Expenditure on Education
5.5%
6.3%
4.5%
5.4%
4.5%
3.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019.
Note: Percentage of GDP
47. Labor Force
Source: The World Bank, 2020.
19,180.3
99,843.0
24,802.3
8,859.8
53,978.6
16,182.3
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Thousands
48. Labor Force (Female)
43.3% 43.9% 42.7% 42.4%
38.5%
45.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of Total Labor Force
50. Energy Use
Source: The World Bank, 2014 - 2015.
2,030
1,496
724
2,006
1,537
790
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Kg of Oil Equivalent per Capita
52. Population Living in Slums
14.7%
16.3%
27.8%
8.8%
16.0%
33.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2018.
Note: Percentage of Urban Population
54. Bank Capital to Assets Ratio
13.5%
10.2%
17.0%
7.5%
11.0%
12.9%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage
55. Bank Nonperforming Loans
to Total Gross Loans
5.7%
3.1%
4.2%
2.1% 2.1%
3.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage
56. Deposit Interest Rate
29.3%
2.2%
3.4%
0.9% 1.5% 1.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2020.
Note: Percentage
57. Lending Interest Rate
29.4% 29.0%
9.9%
4.2%
6.3%
12.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2020.
Note: Percentage
58. Listed Domestic Companies
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
91
324
66
203
139
196
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Total
59. Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic
Companies
$39,393.54
$1,187,361.69
$132,040.28
$203,791.65
$413,618.82
$98,964.96
$0.0
$200,000.0
$400,000.0
$600,000.0
$800,000.0
$1,000,000.0
$1,200,000.0
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) Millions; (ii) Current US$
60. Strength of Legal Rights Index
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
2 2
11
4
10
7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: 0 = Weak to 12 = Strong
62. WE ARE READY TO HELP YOU AND YOUR BUSINESS.
EMAIL
contacto@nuricumbo.com
WHATSAPP
+52.55.5453.6309
SCHEDULE A CALL
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OUR OFFICE
Paseo de la Reforma 505
Col. Cuaúhtemoc.
C.P. 06500, Mexico City.
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