This document discusses several topics related to the future of libraries and information. It begins by outlining the aims and objectives of a workshop on the future of the Rockdale Public Library, including understanding user needs, discussing multiple futures scenarios, and learning about scenario planning. It then covers issues like disrupted library models, the types of libraries that may exist, what data can tell us about the future, and choices libraries will need to make. The document discusses how the publishing industry is changing with the growth of digital content and issues like open access. It also touches on trends like MOOCs and how the content mix delivered by libraries may evolve over time.
4. After Friday….
• Outcomes from the Thursday and Friday
Workshops
• Return to the Community for final input
• Select Group to Finalise the Preferred Library
Scenario
• Strategic Planning or the Allocation of
Resources to follow
4
7. Objectives for this session
• To understand the Rockdale Public Library
User and their information need
• To discuss the available multiple futures
• To understand what we have achieved, what
we want to achieve and that which we have
not yet begun to think of
• To begin to understand what Scenario
Planning is as a tool for the modern futureorientated library
7
16. “People want what they want
when they want it.
They don’t want something else,
they don’t want less than they
want, and
they certainly don’t want it
at some other time.”
Henry Forsha
17. Staff view of what is done well
Collections
Physical Collections
Up to date
collections
New release
novels
Local History
research
Children’s
Collections
Good Collections
Collection
Development
Wide and varied
Collections
Service
Modern ‘p’
collection
High
calibre
Service
In-house cataloguing
Staff skills are well utilised
Frontline Customer service
Continuous
CALD Services
Staff skills are well
improvements
Engage with customers at
utilised
Supportive teams
their level
Friendlier staff
Experienced staff
Early literacy services
Programs
Various programs,
children’s, Local history,
CALD Adult
Story time
Children’s
activities
Promote technological
change to special need
groups
17
18. Staff view of what should be done
Collections
More Faster
computers
Demise of p
newspapers
Use of e books
E-resources
collection
User generated
content
E books
Children’s
Collections
Downloadable
ebooks
Wide and varied
Collections
Programs
E Resources
Cultural
varied
Programs
Computer activities at Branches
Frontline Customer service
Continuous
CALD Services
Research community
improvements
More varied programs
needs
More early literacy
Adult programs
services
More CALD services
Up to date technology
Further
Technology
Digital
More
technologies
computers
Availability of i
equipment
Wi Fi
Access
‘disruptions
Computer
’
access
Remote access to ‘I’
18
19. Staff view of what should be done 2
Collaboration Liaise with other
Population changes Children’s
Collections
departments
Work with other
Council Libraries
New release
novels
Engagement
with
customers
Collections
distributions
Internet power
Collaboration
Facilities
More study room
Catalogue in community languages
CALD Services
Lack of community
Meeting rooms!!!
space
Appropriate space
Services
Even more Helpful services
Tutoring Homework
IT Training
New emerging
assistance
technologies
Promote databases
More Promotion / Marketing
Continuous
improvements
More
Shelving
/Furnitur
e
Areas for study/ PCs
so on Modern Study spaces
Helping unemployed
Web site marketing
19
21. What is the Library …..?
• What is the Library doing well?
• What does it need to do better??
• THREE OF EACH please
22. Changing the mind-set
• Scenario Planning as a process, but not a
solution
• Scenarios are a form of engagement in the
solution
• Plan from the Future rather than in the
present
22
24. What are the influences?
• What is the perception?
• Is the current view of the ‘Library’
tired or … expected?
• Are there too many clichés or ideas on
library and content futures not
thought through?
• Is the environment requiring
evidence-based solutions?
24
25. The cool eye of the Future
• ‘Future’ is a very real force in our lives
• We do not know what the future
holds
• We use the term very loosely
and vaguely
• Can be intimidated by the future,
or the absence of certainty
• Paths to certainty are crucial
• The Futures is deep in the EYE…
25
28. The Rear vision view….
• We can only judge how far we have come by
looking backwards
• We can only understand our path to the
future with a ‘rear vision mirror’
Photo credit: David Hobbs
28
29. The Future Is Not Linear….
ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
DECISION POINTS
SCENARIO PATH
OPTIONS
NOW
29
32. Disrupted models
• IBM Mainframe disrupted by Personal
Computer
• Diaries… Paper disrupted by PDA
• Diaries, Contacts disrupted by PDA, then
Mobile phone
• Nokia mobile phone disrupted by multifunctioned iPhone, HTA etc
• Kodak industries disrupted by Digital
technologies
Steve O'Connor Leadership Future
Libraries Wuhan University
November, 2011
32
33. Five Principles of Disruption
1. Companies depend on customers
and investors for resources
*Do n
2. Small markets do not solve growth
needs of large companies
3. Markets that do not exist cannot
be analysed
*Market
r
e
s
e
a
r
c
h
a
n
34. Five Principles ……..
4. Organisation’s capabilities
define its disabilities
*Capability in processes and values…work against organisation implementing change
*Technology improvement provides greater performance than market can absorb
5. Technology supply may not
equal market demand
36. EXERCISE
• Identify examples of potential disruptions:
– Could affect our general lives
– Could affect our new future library:
• Should be within 3 year time-frame
37. • What does the general populace say about
Libraries, their present and future purpose?
• What do the those responsible for the library
say?
– Funder?
– Governing body such as a Council?
– Connections to other cultural bodies?
37
40. Build a picture
• What is the imaginative story we want to tell
folk?
• This is a story of why we need a new or
revitalised Library
• We will do the WHAT (i.e. design and features
) in the next session
40
41. What kinds of data?
• What kinds of data do we have?
• What kinds of data explain the future needs??
41
42. More about …..
• Insiders and Outsiders
• Over time most of us become Insiders as we
master our discipline
• InnoCentive illustrates the power
of Outsiders
• We need to be Outsiders
• Outsiders do not need to see
the detailed environment but can see the whole
42
44. Recap
• Societal trends affecting Libraries
– Disrupted library models
• Kind of Library?
– Impact of digital?
– Partners?
• Data?
– What is it telling you?
• Collections?
44
45. Choices
• Many decision points
• Better to choose rather than having the future
happen to you
• So how is it best to inform the decision points?
• Engagement in the need equation as well as the
choices?
• What are the best choices which you have
recognised in your own career?
• It is your choice
45
46. EXERCISE
• Imagine what your library was like in
2002, 2007?
• What were some of the characteristics of the
organisation then?
• What are the three main forces the Library
was doing well?
47. “ You can’t stop change from
coming…
you can only usher it in and work
out the terms.
If you are smart and a little
lucky, you can make it your friend”
Barrack Obama
Time Nov 17, 2008: 25
47
49. Path tunnel gets narrower
• As we look forwards the definition in the
distance becomes very indistinct
• The wider environment in the distance; the
spaces to each side cannot be seen
• It is only as we approach that point,
do we gain greater clarity
• So ‘seeing’ the future is difficult and
predictability is not easily found
49
50. What are Scenarios?
• The Long View
• Outside-in thinking
• Multiple Perspectives
• Allow ourselves time to come to a new
view, multiple views
50
51. What is Scenario Planning?
• Process allows options to remain ‘in
consideration’
• Allowing all ideas to come to the fore
• Recognising that we do
not have one future, but
many
• How many scenarios?
51
52. Imagination and Stories
• Strategic Planning is an important process but
effectively it concerns the allocation of resources
• Scenario Planning seeks to use the imagination
to conjure up new , different options
• Imagination needs to be strengthened so that
improbable ideas, impractical ideas are not
dismissed
• Imagination liberates us from past thinking
52
59. More about …..
• Insiders and Outsiders
• Over time most of us become Insiders as we
master our discipline
• InnoCentive illustrates
the power of Outsiders
• We need to be Outsiders
• Outsiders do not need to see
the detailed environment but can see the whole
59
61. One sphere to another..
• Right Brain Hemisphere allows us to see the whole
• It enables us to find connections between seemingly
unconnected things
• The Forest ( Right) and the trees (Left)
• Prefrontal cortex helps focus attention on the task at
hand
• Understanding some brain research assists in
understanding the the creative process
• Blue helps create; Red spells Danger: Yellow is
uncomfortable
61
64. EXERCISE
• We imagined what your library was like in
2003, 2008?
• How have the characteristics of the
organisation changed since then?
• What are the forces will you have to deal
with in the next three years?
65. Publishers
• Digital 1990+
• Elsevier( 1300 titles) and major publishers
done retrospective collections
• Taken over archiving role .. Implications??
• Changing copyright / licensing /ownership
arrangements
67. Professional Publishing and Information
Universe
7,982
Reed Elsevier
Thomson
6,850
6,143
Pearson
VNU
4,275
McGraw-Hill
4,229
Reuters
4,220
3,555
Wolters Kluwer
1,730
Scholastic
1,377
Dow Jones
1,119
UBM
Springer
880
(a)
John Wiley
Taylor & Francis
Total 2002 Sales (€ in m)
649
293
Note: $/€ FX rate of 1.1322, £/€ FX rate of 0.7090
(a) Combined KAP/Springer entity.
STM
Legal & Tax
Financial
B2B
Education
Media/Marketing
Other
68. Some Facts
•
•
•
•
Book Publishing in 1963 worth US$1.68 billion
In 2008 it was worth US$ 40.3 billion
Science publishing US$ 9.4 billion in 2011
Science published 1.8 million English articles
at US$5,000 per article in 2011
• Estimated that OA average cost of US$660 per
article
68
69. Cell Reports costs US$5,000 per article whereas
Public Library of Science PLoS, costs US$1,350
Average cost per article US$3,500 to US$4,000
PeerJ and BioMed Central are other OA Journals
Industry profit margins are 20% - 30%.
69
71. A Truly Global Industry
Reed Elsevier
Wolters Kluwer
5%
8%
28%
46%
49%
64%
Pearson
VNU
8%
11%
19%
36%
73%
% of Revenues Originating from:
(a)
Includes Canada.
US
Europe
53%(a)
Rest of the World
81. What is happening to Content?
• Narrowing of the ownership of major publishing
houses
• Move to sell directly to user and ignoring site licenses
• Move to digital delivery
– E-books with many different models; limiting access and
retention
– Will e-books be broken down into smaller digital objects?
– E-books and mobile delivery
– Learning objects and the development of MOOC’s
• Will Open Access and Institutional Repositories
thrive?
81
84. Growth of Digital….
Information Delivered to Library’s Clients
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Web
40%
30%
Digital
20%
10%
Print
0%
1
2
3
Year
4
5
85. EXERCISE
• What is your prediction of the content mix
NOW and in 3 years time?
NOW
• Web
• Digital
• Print
%
%
%
3 YEARS
%
%
%
86. Growth of Digital….
Information Delivered to Library’s Clients
100%
90%
80%
70%
Web
60%
50%
Digital
40%
30%
Print
20%
10%
0%
1
2
3
4
5
87. Increased Relevance
“Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic
decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available.
Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue
to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying
books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital
content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population.
The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself as
a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services are
continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for
these services.
All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every
year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users
– community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers
learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty
alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and
education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service
area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “
87
88. Increased Relevance
“Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general
economic decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is
less available. Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of
it, users continue to use their library in record numbers. The cost to
individuals of buying books, home computers and e-book readers, along with
fees for accessing digital content continues to be a significant barrier for large
segments of the population. The importance of digital resources is rising and
the library has positioned itself as a source for this e-content. At the same
time, government and other services are continuing to move online and the
library is increasingly seen as the source for these services.
All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every
year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for
users – community center, group study space and learning center. The library
offers learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and
faculty alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service
and education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both
service area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment
(ROI). “
88
89. Increased Relevance
“Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic
decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available.
Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue
to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying
books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital
content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population.
The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself
as a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services
are continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for
these services.
All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every
year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users
– community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers
learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty
alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and
education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service
area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “
89
90. Increased Relevance
“Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic
decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available.
Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue
to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying
books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital
content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population.
The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself as
a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services are
continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for
these services.
All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every
year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users
– community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers
learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty
alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and
education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service
area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “
90
91. Scenarios can explore issues
simply
“ ……..The skill set needed by library staff is changing
rapidly although there is no funding for staff development or
retooling of staff skills. With the emphasis on virtual
services, the library is depending more on volunteers to
supplement the limited staff who don’t have the requisite
technical expertise. An enthusiastic group of Generation Y
and younger users is helping the library in its move into the
virtual arena by contributing to tagging and other web 2.0
efforts.
91
92. What is ‘Inevitability’?
• There is risk in disruption
• What is a risk?
• Risk is not Failure
• What is the level of probability of failure?
• Engagement with Risk in a disrupted
environment is a crucial strategy
“If you want to succeed,
double your failure rate”
Thomas J Watson
92
110. What have we learnt ?
• The Future isn’t what it used to be
• The Future can be what you want it to be
• Techniques for developing Business Scenarios
– Funding models
– Service capability
– Skill development
……and planning
111. Think in terms of…
• Scenarios create new stories
• What contrasting forces will lead to a break
through?
– Relevance /irrelevance
– New Service/ No service
– New approach/ same-old-same old
– More space/ less space
– More budget/less budget
• Description of each created quadrant?
111
112. Worse case scenarios
• If we are looking for better, what could be
worse, far worse?
• Unforeseen changes in
support/regulation/parent organisation?
• Unforeseen publisher vendor mergers or new
technologies?
• Elections?
• Financial disasters?
• Earthquakes?
112
113. How many futures?
• There are any number of Futures
• Incremental approach
– Alternative 1
– Official Future
– Alternative 2
• Scaled Approach
– Conservative
– Modest
– Challenging
• A Preferred Scenario
• Preferred Scenario creates the drive for the Strategic
Planning
113
114. Increased Relevance
“Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic
decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available.
Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue
to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying
books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital
content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population.
The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself as
a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services are
continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for
these services.
All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every
year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users
– community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers
learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty
alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and
education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service
area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “
114
115. Plan not for tomorrow
• What should the future look like in the
2017?
• Start in 2013 and then work toward it
• Spend time getting accepted your
Preferred Library Scenario
115
116.
117. Avoid Group Thinking
•
•
•
•
Conformity to norm thinking will limit opportunities
Do not just accept stories about library
Open up and always encourage different thinking
Think about what is being proposed and encourage
an environment of thoughtful, questioning dissent
• Research outside this discipline
117
122. The Learning Hub
“ The Library in 2011 continues to be located on a land-locked campus, in the
middle of one of the most densely populated parts of the world, but is now
everywhere else at the same time. Its strong reputation for being busy is still
true but it has successfully fused the information and study worlds; fused the
physical and digital into one; fused locally produced and the commercially
produced information for the benefit of the community. This is a seamless
world of quality information from the web, large sets of digital books and
journals as well as great collections of books. The information is now even
more digital and wherever possible print materials are delivered digitally. This
is what is now called the LEARNING HUB a more comfortable and dynamic
learning environment . The Library has focused its services more on outreach
than previously. In reaching out it is both visiting the community wherever it
is and also bringing more of that same community to the re-vitalised Library
building. In this future, the traditional functions of the Library have been redefined and re-focused to facilitate the growth of knowledge.”
122
I am SOC your presenter; I have been a university Librarian for nearly 15 years and a CEO of a N-F-P company for 8 years. This has richly influenced my management and thinking working in an expenditure based organisation and then an income based organisation before returning to an income based organisation. Scenario planning is a very important tool by which all the future options are bought into play ensuring the best business investment decisions are made.I have worked predominantly in Australia but in Hong Kong over the past 5 years. I have therefore had extensive recent experience in Mainland China as well as rich experience across Asia. I also have very deep understanding and knowledge of I hope that you enjoy and gain value from this talk.
Rick Anderson as the Editor of Journal of Academic Librarianship made the following three comments about Perception, Value and Patrons.With the first we are reminded that Perception is more important than reality. Our realities are not necessarily those of our clients or patrons. The perception each of us have about ny particular service organisation will vary even though the reality of that organisation’s service is probably consistent.No matter how well we believe that our library is performing; now relevant it is; how up-to-date we believe that it isIF our users do not share this then their reality is that the library is NOT performing and is not relevant to their information needs.
If as the providers of a service or a product place a certain cost on that service or product and the client does not perceive it to be of value, then what is the point. It is not valuable even if we think that it has real value. As Librarians we believe that we offer fantastic services, great information access and retrieval services. At the same time, there is a clearly popular view that everything is digital and therefore why do they need a library service. This popular view does not place VALUE on a library service, therefore it is not perceived to be Valuable.Another example I have had is where staff believe that the academic staff of a University visit the library on a regular basis, yet have no way of proving this. In actual fact the staff use the library every day but not in person. Many time these same academic staff do not value the library because they do not visit and they perceive that all the content they are receiving comes free from the net, rather than from their library… at great expense.Value is a very important concept.
Can we as Librarians live with this statement? So many intelligent people will say that they get all the information they require from the Internet and Google. These are intelligent people, information hungry but perhaps not discerning as I would believe they should be. If it is pointed out to them that they do not gain access to subscribed information through Google, they are usually amazed and.. Perhaps do not care.They is much truth in this statement that Patrons do not need librarians as much as they once did; there is equally as much strength in the argument that they should need the librarian more because of the lack of tactility of information and the need strategies needed to really assure oneself that all the required information is indeed located. Perhaps there is a difference in the edge of service now provided by librarians; a difference in quality and professionalism.
These African Meerkats evidence that we are all different; we all see events from different perspectives with different insights . We are all viewing the same circumstances and yet we all receive different messages or outcomes from the view. Some have telescopic views while others skirt under the radar to gain a slightly different perspective.The overall message is that for an organisation to gain the best view of its future, many views and perspectives are highly desirable. This will create a blended but not diminished view of the potential future.
We deal with out futures every day, every waking moment as we make choices, choices, choices. We choose to go to work in a particular manner; we choose to follow a particular route. Sometimes that choice of path can have devastating consequences. The future is something we think about often and make resolutions about but we do not know the probable success of these future choices.It is the same with our careers and organisations. Too often we let things drift, plans drift and policies made elesewhere in the institution or publishing industry force new behaviours on us.This is not the future. The future is not science fiction, although science fiction has explored the possibilities as creative literary exercises.
Pieter Brugel The Elder 1520 – 1569The Fall of the Rebel AngelsRoyal Museums of Fine Arts of belgium Brussels
When driving a vehicle we can only judge how far we have come by looking backwards; or looking through a rear vision mirror. We will be surprised how far we have come down the road by looking in that mirror and seeing the distance we have travelled, even if the mirror is clouded with rain.The same situation applies to our careers or organisations; change infiltrates our daily existence often with out even realising it. Our user attitudes change; our staff get older and less inclined to change…”It is has worked well for years, why change??” :they might say.We have changed and made choices as to our route even if we are not very conscious of this.
Future Files is a book published by Richard Watson. He devised an Extinction timeline which is created under the Creative Commons license. In this Timeline he looks at many products, services and even lifestyles which have been extinct. He then hypothesises as to what might become extinct.
In the 1950’s and 1960’s IBM has mainframe computers which worked for teams of slave computers on which word processing would be done as well as other administrative systems. Along came the humble Personal Computer (PC) and the Macintosh which appealed to a new generation of post-war Baby Boomers who craved individuality. The PC grew so powerful and omnipresent so that the whole system dynamic changed with the data and power being decentralised and mobile. The mainframe grew out of favour being overtaken by Microsoft and Apple .. amongst others. IBM has never recovered as it sought to re-invent itself.The manufacturers of paper diaries di not see the PDA coming which created mobile devices to store both calendars and contacts.The PDA in turn did not respond well to the emergence of the iPhone and similar Androids. The PALM company has sunk into the clutches of HP. Nokia had similar market dominance but failed to develop the smart phone staying instead with the simple mobile device.Disruption of a business model can happen very swiftly. Already libraries are deep in the processes of change but to go where??
Innocentive started with Eli Lilly. Extended to Proctor and Gamble and General Electric
That we make decision is clear; whether we make the correct decision is another matter; often times it is only with hindsight that we will know whether the decisions are indeed correct. What we need to be doing is to minimise the impact of the saying’ with the benefit of hindsight we would have done things differently’.Our choices need to be as informed and future focused as we can. The trick is to work through methodologies which can achieve this future focus minimising the risk of being off target. PICKED THE INTERNET in 1994/5
These African Meerkats evidence that we are all different; we all see events from different perspectives with different insights . We are all viewing the same circumstances and yet we all receive different messages or outcomes from the view. Some have telescopic views while others skirt under the radar to gain a slightly different perspective.The overall message is that for an organisation to gain the best view of its future, many views and perspectives are highly desirable. This will create a blended but not diminished view of the potential future.
As we walk along the path to our future the distinct view remains indistinct and out of focus; it is not clear. Perhaps part of the view is clear but as we look down the path, the path itself becomes visually narrower and the view off to each side remains obscured and out of our view. It is only when we arrive at a point that that local environment becomes clear and distinct. But the further we trudge along the path the situation remains the same, so we need new tools to assist us.Looking at our image here it easy to see how this could apply to the future of the publishing industry; to the future of e-books; to the future of libraries, of public libraries as community centres and so on.
Pierre Wack was the originator of Scenario Planning. Working in the context of change, complexity and uncertainty
Scenario Planning is a process to create a new Scenario for the Organisation. In doing this , like the earlier line graph it is usual to create not ONE but TWO or THREE viable Scenarios of Futures. This merely recognises that we do not have ONE future but many.By creating different scenarios we are also extending the planning process while ensuring that good ideas are not lost or dismissed. Far too many good ideas are dropped or dismissed too early in the planning process. These ideas may not survive or may survive in a different form.It is crucial to note the difference between the scenario planning process within the broader strategic planning process. Strategic Planning is concerned with the allocation of resources, staff and dollars to particular projects for the achievement of a strategic objective or set of goals. Scenario Planning is focused on drawing a picture of what kind of future is wanted. This is the hard part. Strategic Planning will create the projects and the plans together with resourcing to make it all happen. Strategic Planning is easy once you have a destination decided and accepted.
The difficulty with Strategic Planning is that most of us get last years Plan out of the bottom drawer and try to update it. No real thinking of changed circumstances or a need for different futures Strategic Planning is a highly structured and regimented process.Scenario Planning however allows the imagination and creativity to stay in play for a much longer period.The use of the imagination by a wide group of persons both users and staff in an organisation can begin to release different internal and user perspectives of the organisation’s future. Often times there are conflicting views of what could be done to the whole organisation or to various parts of it. Libraries have rarely backed away from existing services even when new services are really required. Scenario Planning allows an imaginative view of what the organisation should really be doing and arriving at a consensual view of the options.
http://www.futurelibraries.info/content/page/scenarios-2050-0Wild West‘Wild West’ has a no-holds-barred free-for-all flavour. Specifically, this world is dominated by capitalism and corporate power, including the HE sector. Private providers compete with each other and the state to offer students educational services, including information services and learning material. The power lies in the hands of the consumer (‘student’ being a rather old-fashioned term) who is able to pick and choose from courses and learning materials to create a personal educational experience. Beehive‘Beehive’ draws obvious parallels with the hierarchical and structured life of the bee colony, where all is ordered to ensure the common good of the whole community. The Beehive scenario is a world in which society and HE have open values and the state is the primary funder and controller of HE. Its overriding aim is the production of a skilled workforce, and to this end it has created a largely homogenous HE system for the masses while allowing the elite to attend the few traditional institutions. A limited market is used to provide competition within the HE system to drive up quality. Walled GardenA ‘Walled Garden’ is an oasis, shut-off from the outside world. Inhabitants of the garden neither know nor care much about the world beyond the garden’s comforting walls. After all, how could the flowers out there possibly be any better than those within the garden? HEIs in this scenario are ‘Walled Gardens’. The closed nature of society makes HEIs insular and inward-looking, isolated from other institutions by competing value systems. Provision of information services in this world is as much concerned with protecting their own materials from others as it is in enabling access.
Innocentive started with Eli Lilly. Extended to Proctor and Gamble and General Electric
When you read a poem or hear a joke you are relying on in large part on the right hemisphere and its ability to uncover linguistic associations. Juliet is the sun as a metaphorRight hemisphere and left eye….Need right and leftRight damaged draw houses with doors in space; or humans depicted as a hand
The process for the creation of a Preferred Scenario for your library organisation is to do engage your Community fully in the process. It will not be your entire community but as many as you can so that there is a clear recognition that the Library is seeking the views of its community, that it is future focused. Marketing along this process will be crucial.Undertaking research about your operating environment, your wider information environment and staff skill set will be essential to create that knowledge about what is happening and likely to happen into the near future. This will include a lot of management data about what is happening inside and outside the operating environment.Creating Different Scenarios in the form of stories to which the community can relate is a simple but highly effective way to allow for different perspectives and outlooks.Finally to merge and to assemble a Preferred Library Scenario which the community can agree to is the culmination of this process and the start of the hard work to achieve the Scenario.It is however a most satisfying and engaging process linking the users and the staff in a common objective.
Recent Apple case sued for coluding to raise pricesAmazon and their business model
The following scenarios encompass 2 important trends: funding for libraries and the library’s place in the market or relevance to today’s user. With the assumption that libraries will experience decreased funding across the board the scenarios project 3 different outcomes pertaining to the library’s relevance in its community: the library will take on increased relevance, the library’s relevance will remain stable but services will become increasingly virtual, and the library’s relevance will decrease.
The following scenarios encompass 2 important trends: funding for libraries and the library’s place in the market or relevance to today’s user. With the assumption that libraries will experience decreased funding across the board the scenarios project 3 different outcomes pertaining to the library’s relevance in its community: the library will take on increased relevance, the library’s relevance will remain stable but services will become increasingly virtual, and the library’s relevance will decrease.
The following scenarios encompass 2 important trends: funding for libraries and the library’s place in the market or relevance to today’s user. With the assumption that libraries will experience decreased funding across the board the scenarios project 3 different outcomes pertaining to the library’s relevance in its community: the library will take on increased relevance, the library’s relevance will remain stable but services will become increasingly virtual, and the library’s relevance will decrease.
The following scenarios encompass 2 important trends: funding for libraries and the library’s place in the market or relevance to today’s user. With the assumption that libraries will experience decreased funding across the board the scenarios project 3 different outcomes pertaining to the library’s relevance in its community: the library will take on increased relevance, the library’s relevance will remain stable but services will become increasingly virtual, and the library’s relevance will decrease.
Two concepts wrapped in inevitability RISK PROBABILITYThomas Watson who was the CEO of IBM in the early days of the company famously said that “If you want to succeed you need to double your failure rate”. He was talking about risk, engaging with change and different ways of doing things.The ways in which we have previously operated need to change; but in what ways, from what to a new future … which new future??It may be that new services need to be created; it may be that old services need to be withdrawn or made less resource intensive. To do anything entails risk; but risk is not failure. It is a matter of engaging with the levels of risk in a manageable sense.
The process for the creation of a Preferred Scenario for your library organisation is to do engage your Community fully in the process. It will not be your entire community but as many as you can so that there is a clear recognition that the Library is seeking the views of its community, that it is future focused. Marketing along this process will be crucial.Undertaking research about your operating environment, your wider information environment and staff skill set will be essential to create that knowledge about what is happening and likely to happen into the near future. This will include a lot of management data about what is happening inside and outside the operating environment.Creating Different Scenarios in the form of stories to which the community can relate is a simple but highly effective way to allow for different perspectives and outlooks.Finally to merge and to assemble a Preferred Library Scenario which the community can agree to is the culmination of this process and the start of the hard work to achieve the Scenario.It is however a most satisfying and engaging process linking the users and the staff in a common objective.
在路口 All stand up close eyes and point the the NORTHWhich direction should be go?? It is so confusing.
Each Force Field can create Four Scenarios; Each final Scenarios could contain a good number of Force Field analyses….
What could be worse case scenarios?????????
The following scenarios encompass 2 important trends: funding for libraries and the library’s place in the market or relevance to today’s user. With the assumption that libraries will experience decreased funding across the board the scenarios project 3 different outcomes pertaining to the library’s relevance in its community: the library will take on increased relevance, the library’s relevance will remain stable but services will become increasingly virtual, and the library’s relevance will decrease.
Scenario Planning allows for new stories to infiltrate the planning processes. It is far too easy to accept the status quo or the loudest voices. Allow different ideas to be expressed and held in the planning conversation as long as possible.Dissent is always constructive ion these processes. In researching the future, always look outside of our own profession into the allied areas of the social sciences for different and intriguing insights. They are there. Even journals such as the New Scientist can contriobute great insights into this process.
This book is a very practical book describing the process