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  1. 1. IBM Global Services (ITS) 10/30/15 © 2004 IBM Corporation Earned Value Analysis Dr. Oliver Klapp
  2. 2. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 2 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Agenda 1 2 3 4 Earned Value Einführung, Definition, Nutzen Vergleich verschiedener “Forecast”-Methoden Terminologie und Fragestellungen Berechnungsbeispiel zu Earned Value 5 Beispielbericht SOKO Juli 205 Hints & Tips Anhang 6 7
  3. 3. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 3 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Agenda 1 2 3 4 Earned Value Einführung, Definition, Nutzen Vergleich verschiedener “Forecast”-Methoden Terminologie und Fragestellungen Berechnungsbeispiel zu Earned Value 5 Beispielbericht SOKO Juli 205 Hints & Tips Anhang 6 7
  4. 4. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 4 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Objectives  Understand project financial data analysis acronyms and formulas  Analyze project data and PREDICT project financial performance  Understand how Earned Value Analysis can enhance the overall project performance
  5. 5. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 5 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Earned Value Management - Definitions Department of Defense literature defines earned value management as the following: "Earned Value Management is the use of an integrated management system that coordinates work scope, schedule, and cost goals and objectively measures progress toward those goals." PMI/WWPMM Glossary describes earned value analysis as: “The process of comparing actual performance with planned performance using earned value as the method for measuring project performance.”
  6. 6. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 6 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 EV Management – Value (to Organization) 1/2 Benefits are both intrinsic and extrinsic • Meet budget, schedule and scope objectives • Earlier awareness of problems (and resolution) • Improved communication of status • Solid basis for management decisions • Hilft dem Management Bereiche zu identifizieren, die zusätzliche Aufmerksamkeit des Managements erfordern • Helps identify poor or inadequate planning • Liefert die Basis für einen realistischen Plan gegen den die Performance gemessen werden kann • Basis for better planning on future projects • Broadens perspective of many Project Managers • Increased customer satisfaction and profitability • Wenn ein Aufgabe innerhalb Scope, Zeitplan und Budget erledigt werden kann, steigt das Vertrauen in eine erfolgreiche Fertigstellung
  7. 7. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 7 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 EV Management – Value (to Organization) 2/2  Liefert wahre Kostendaten – Verhindert Kostenabweichungen – Ermöglicht realistische Projektionen der Gesamtkosten – Erhöht die Genauigkeit der Kosten-Schätzungen  Reduziert die Möglichkeit des Kunden / Managements zusätzliche Arbeit ohne zusätzliches Budget aufzuerlegen – Verbindet direkt Budget und Arbeit – Erzwingt für zusätzliche Arbeit zusätzliches Budget – Erzwingt für reduziertes Budget eine Reduzierung der Arbeit  Ermöglicht Management Entscheidungen in einem realistischen Rahmen gegenüber latenter Unsicherheit
  8. 8. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 8 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 EV Management - Getting Started Earned Value Management • Requires basic project management practices be in place • Integrate Earned Value (EV) concepts and processes across all components of the Project Management System – Documented in an EV management plan – Uses EV analysis to look at and report on data that is collected and managed as part of regularly accepted project management activities
  9. 9. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 9 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 EV Management - Criteria for Success Successful implementation of EV Management requires: • Determine early if EV Management is going to be used and include in all planning activities • Define a WBS with clearly identifiable and measurable tasks • [Include tasks in support of EV in the WBS and fund them] • Schedule all work within required and achievable time frames • Assign resources and costs/person days to each task • Prepare baselines for budget and project plans • Capture and monitor all project costs • Track progress for scope, schedule, and budget • [Adjust project management efforts as a result of EV analyses (i.e. Recovery plans)]
  10. 10. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 10 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 EV Management - Processes Processes need to be in place • Processes to baseline budgets and project plans and record them • Processes to obtain expenditures from Planview and other accounting systems • Processes to regularly assess and record work accomplished and costs incurred • Processes to generate Earned Value analyses and reports • Processes for reporting status at level of detail needed to measure progress accurately
  11. 11. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 11 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Agenda 1 2 3 4 Earned Value Einführung, Definition, Nutzen Vergleich verschiedener “Forecast”-Methoden Terminologie und Fragestellungen Berechnungsbeispiel zu Earned Value 5 Beispielbericht SOKO Juli 205 Hints & Tips Anhang 6 7
  12. 12. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 12 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Comparison of Methodologies  Go/No-Go Criteria  Milestone Tracking  Spend (Burn) Rate  Expended Effort  No Measurement  Earned Value Management
  13. 13. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 13 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Illustration - Go/No Go Criteria Decision: Has criteria for continuing project been successfully achieved?
  14. 14. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 14 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Illustration - Milestone Tracking Decision: Has the team met each milestone on time?
  15. 15. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 15 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Illustration - Spend Plan Decision: Has the rate of budget funding been expended at the anticipate rate?
  16. 16. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 16 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Illustration - Expended Effort Decision: Has the rate of expended effort been executed at the anticipated rate?
  17. 17. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 17 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 No Performance Measurement Methodology
  18. 18. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 18 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Earned Value Analysis Earned Value Analysis is a simple, but effective, way of understanding how a project is currently performing against the original (baseline) plan in terms of the value of the work completed.
  19. 19. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 19 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Developing A Baseline 100 40 60 15 25 30 30 3. Allocate Budgets 1. Define the Work 2. Schedule the Work $ PM Baseline Contract Budget Base Time 100 40 60 15 25 30 30 3. Allocate Budgets 1. Define the Work 2. Schedule the Work $ PM Baseline Contract Budget Base Time
  20. 20. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 20 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Performance Measurement  Definition - Effectively controlling the execution of the project planning parameters, specifically: – Schedule - Ensuring the timely execution of project milestones. – Effort - Controlling the efficient expenditure of resources. – Cost - Controlling the project budget and expenditure of funds.  Requirements - In order to monitor and control these project parameters, the team must be able to achieve the following: – Baseline - A reasonably competent estimate of the effort and time needed to complete the project can be forecasted. – Actuals - A mechanism for accurately collecting the expenditure of effort can be implemented. – % Complete - The team has a reliable means for accurately determining the amount of work that has been accomplished.
  21. 21. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 21 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Agenda 1 2 3 4 Earned Value Einführung, Definition, Nutzen Vergleich verschiedener “Forecast”-Methoden Terminologie und Fragestellungen Berechnungsbeispiel zu Earned Value 5 Beispielbericht SOKO Juli 205 Hints & Tips Anhang 6 7
  22. 22. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 22 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Earned Value Fragestellungen 1/2 Questions to Ask Earned Value Term Abbreviation and Formulas What is the project's budget? Budget at completion BAC What did we plan to spend? Budgeted cost of work scheduled BCWS What is the actual amount spent on the project to date? Actual cost of work performed ACWP What has been completed and what is the estimated value of those items? Budgeted cost of work performed BCWP What is the efficiency at which tasks are getting done from a financial point of view? Cost performance index CPI = BCWP / ACWP How far off are we from our scheduled cost of things to be completed from the actual amount spent? Cost variance CV = BCWP - ACWP How far off are we from our schedule from a financial point of view? Schedule variance SV = BCWP - BCWS How much of the budget at completion you have used to date? Percent spent % Spent = ACWP / BAC
  23. 23. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 23 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Earned Value Fragestellungen 2/2 Questions to Ask Earned Value Term Abbreviation and Formulas How much of the project has been completed? Percent complete PC = BCWP / BAC How well is the project performing in comparison to how well it is expected to perform? Schedule performance index SPI = BCWP / BCWS How much will the project cost at completion? Calculated Estimate at completion CEAC = BAC / CPI What is the estimate of additional funds needed to complete the project? Estimate to complete Developed in consultation with management. How much will the project cost at completion? Estimate at Completion EAC = ACWP + ETC How efficient must the team be to complete the remaining work with the remaining money? To-complete performance index TCPI = (BAC - BCWP) / (BAC - ACWP)
  24. 24. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 24 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 EV Management - Glossary – EV Terms PV = Planned Value or BCWS (Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled) EV = Earned Value or BCWP (Budgeted Cost of Work Performed) AC = Actual Cost or ACWP (Actual Cost of Work Performed) BAC = Budget at Completion (Total of planned value at completion) – EV Variances and indexes SV = Schedule Variance (negative number is behind schedule, positive is ahead) CV = Cost Variance (negative number is over budget, positive is under budget) SPI = Schedule Performance Index (SPI < 1 behind schedule, SPI > 1 ahead) CPI = Cost Performance Index (CPI < 1 over budget, CPI > 1 under budget) – EV Forecasting EAC = Estimate at Completion (derived number based upon current indexes and budget at completion) VAC = Variance at Completion (negative number is over budget, positive is under budget) ETC = Estimate to Complete
  25. 25. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 25 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Agenda 1 2 3 4 Earned Value Einführung, Definition, Nutzen Vergleich verschiedener “Forecast”-Methoden Terminologie und Fragestellungen Berechnungsbeispiel zu Earned Value 5 Beispielbericht SOKO Juli 205 Hints & Tips Anhang 6 7
  26. 26. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 26 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 BCWS - Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled  The sum of approved costs for activites Scheduled to be performed  Cumulative financial plan  The following example shows a BCWS of $50,000 per month for a six month project. Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 BCWS/ Plan $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000
  27. 27. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 27 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 BAC - Budget at Completion  The estimated baseline total cost of the project at completion  Also referred to as the original cost estimate  Many times, your BAC will equal the Total Contract Value (E-Vorlage). Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 BAC BCWS/ Plan $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $300,000
  28. 28. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 28 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 BCWP - Budgeted Cost of Work Performed  The sum of approved cost estimates COMPLETED during a given period  Also referred to as Earned Value Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 BAC BCWS/ Plan $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $300,000 BCWP $40,000 $105,000
  29. 29. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 29 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 ACWP - Actual Cost of Work Performed  Total costs and/or expenses INCURRED  Shows actuals or real cost of work performed  May be equal to, less then, or greater then what was budgeted Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 BAC BCWS/ Plan $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $300,000 BCWP $40,000 $105,000 $151,000 ACWP $39,000 $107,000 $160,000
  30. 30. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 30 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Earned Value Analysis BCWSBCWS BCWPBCWP ACWPACWP
  31. 31. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 31 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 CV - Cost Variance  The difference between the earned value of an activity and the actual cost for that activity  BCWP - ACWP = Cost Variance (CV)  +CV = under budget, -CV = over budget Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 BAC BCWS/ Plan $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $300,000 BCWP $40,000 $105,000 $151,000 ACWP $39,000 $107,000 $160,000 CV $1,000 ($2,000) ($9,000)
  32. 32. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 32 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 SV - Schedule Variance  The difference between the scheduled completion of tasks and the actual completion of tasks (in Dollars)  BCWP - BCWS = Schedule Variance (SV)  +SV = Ahead of Schedule, -SV = Behind Schedule Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 BAC BCWS/ Plan $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $300,000 BCWP $40,000 $105,000 $151,000 ACWP $39,000 $107,000 $160,000 CV $1,000 ($2,000) ($9,000) SV ($10,000) $5,000 $1,000
  33. 33. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 33 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Hitting the Mark - Predicting the Future  Using past performance to predict how your project will finish financially  Can change over time  Project Reviews  Status Reports  Validate your "gut feeling" BCWS ACWP BCWP CV SV
  34. 34. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 34 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 CPI - Cost Performance Index  Ratio of budgeted costs to actual costs  Also called the Efficiency Index  BCWP/ACWP = Cost Performance Index (CPI)  CPI = 1, AWSOME!  CPI < 1, Over Budget  CPI > 1, Under Budget
  35. 35. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 35 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 CPI - Cost Performance Index  CPI = BCWP/ACWP Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 BAC BCWS/ Plan $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $300,000 BCWP $40,000 $105,000 $151,000 ACWP $39,000 $107,000 $160,000 CV $1,000 ($2,000) ($9,000) SV ($10,000) $5,000 $1,000 CPI 1.03 .98 .94
  36. 36. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 36 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 ETC - Estimate To Complete  The expected additional costs needed to finish the project  (BAC - ACWP)/CPI = Estimate to Complete (ETC) Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 BAC BCWS/ Plan $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $300,000 BCWP $40,000 $105,000 $151,000 ACWP $39,000 $107,000 $160,000 CV $1,000 ($2,000) ($9,000) SV ($10,000) $5,000 $1,000 CPI 1.03 .98 .94 ETC $253,398 $196,938 $148.936
  37. 37. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 37 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 EAC - Estimate At Completion  The expected total cost of the project  ACWP + ETC = Estimate At Completion (EAC) Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 BAC BCWS/ Plan $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $300,000 BCWP $40,000 $105,000 $151,000 ACWP $39,000 $107,000 $160,000 CV $1,000 ($2,000) ($9,000) SV ($10,000) $5,000 $1,000 CPI 1.03 .98 .94 ETC $253,398 $196,938 $148.936 EAC $292,398 $303,938 $308,936
  38. 38. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 38 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Exkurs: Varianten zur Berechnung von EAC  Es gibt verschiednene EAC Definitionen: – EAC = ACWP+neuer ETC (wie im Beispiel) wenn sich Konditionen oder Annahmen ändern, die der ursprünglichen Schätzung zugrunde liegen – EAC=BAC-CV wenn die vergangene Performance kein guter Indikator ist – EAC = BAC/CPI wenn die vergangene Performance ein guter Indikator ist
  39. 39. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 39 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 SPI - Schedule Performance Index  Ratio of work performed to work scheduled  BCWP/BCWS = Schedule Performance Index (SPI)  SPI = 1, AWSOME! On Schedule  SPI < 1, Behind Schedule  SPI > 1, Ahead of Schedule
  40. 40. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 40 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 SPI - Schedule Performance Index  BCWP/BCWS = Schedule Performance Index (SPI) Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 BAC BCWS/ Plan $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $300,000 BCWP $40,000 $105,000 $151,000 ACWP $39,000 $107,000 $160,000 CV $1,000 ($2,000) ($9,000) SV ($10,000) $5,000 $1,000 CPI 1.03 .98 .94 ETC $253,398 $196,938 $148.936 EAC $292,398 $303,938 $308,936 SPI .80 1.05 1.01
  41. 41. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 41 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Trend Analysis  Cost and Schedule  On Schedule and over budget Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 0,75 0,8 0,85 0,9 0,95 1 1,05 1,1 IDEAL CPI SPI
  42. 42. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 42 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Trend Analysis  Estimate at Completion Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 290 295 300 305 310 Thousands Budget at Completion Estimate at Completion
  43. 43. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 43 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Earned Value Analysis  Project is slightly ahead of schedule  Approximately 3% over budget with an Increasing trend  Estimated final contract costs = $308,900  Original contract costs = $300,000
  44. 44. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 44 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Agenda 1 2 3 4 Earned Value Einführung, Definition, Nutzen Vergleich verschiedener “Forecast”-Methoden Terminologie und Fragestellungen Berechnungsbeispiel zu Earned Value 5 Beispielbericht SOKO Juli 205 Hints & Tips Anhang 6 7
  45. 45. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 45 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Projektkostenanalyse (Stand Ende Juli 2005) Ergebnis: hinter time (4%), leicht unter Budget (5%); Projektkostenanalyse Juli Budgetdaten (in Einheiten Projekttage) PT aus E-Vorlage 2250 BAC Plantage 2233 BCWS Soll-Tage geplante Arbeit 1207 BCWP Geleistete Arbeit 1162 ACWP Ist-Tage verrichteter Arbeit 1101 Projektfortschritt PC Fertigstellungsgrad 52% %spent Budgetverbrauch 49% Abweichungen (prozentual) CVP Kostenabweichungen 5% SVP Planabweichungen -4% Schätzungen zur Projektfertigstellung EAC Gesamtkosten bei Fertigstellung 2117 VAC Kostenabweichung bei Fertigstellung (bzgl. Plan-Tage) 116 Kostenabweichung bei Fertigstellung (bzgl. E-Vorlage & CRs) 133 ETC Verbleibende Kosten bis zur Fertigstellung 1015
  46. 46. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 46 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Projektkostenanalyse (Stand Ende Juli 2005) Diagramm 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Dez 04 Feb 05 Apr05 Jun 05 Aug 05 O kt05 Dez 05 Monate PT Geplante Arbeit (BCWS) Kosten der Arbeit (ACWP) Geleistete Arbeit (BCWP)
  47. 47. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 47 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Projektkostenanalyse (Stand Ende Juli 2005) Forecast & Completion Forecast benötigte Personentage Fertigstellungs- grad 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Jan 05Feb 05M rz05Apr05M ai05Jun 05Jul05Aug 05Sep 05O kt05Nov05D ez05 Monate PT BAC E-Vorlage + CRs EAC5=BAC/CR EAC3=EAC = BAC/CPI 3% 6% 15% 24% 32% 42% 52% 1% 5% 14% 23% 30% 38% 49% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Jan 05 Feb 05 Mrz 05 Apr 05 Mai 05 Jun 05 Jul 05 Aug 05 Sep 05 Okt 05 Nov 05 Dez 05 Monate PC = BCWP / BAC %spent = ACWP/BAC
  48. 48. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 48 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Detaildarstellung Juli 2005 check/anpassenneu neu Budget E- Vorlage + genehmigte CRs BAC BCWS ACWP BCWP CPI CV PC CEAC SPI SV TCPI Summe SOKO2005 2.255 2.233 1.207 1.101 1.162 1,06 61 52% 2.116 0,96 (45) 0,95 1000 App 333 228 175 175 167 0,95 (8) 73% 239 0,96 (7) 1,15 2000 DB 450 309 217 251 187 0,75 (64) 60% 414 0,86 (30) 2,09 3000 I*Net 125 99 42 51 37 0,72 (14) 37% 137 0,88 (5) 1,29 4000 SM 220 297 120 54 124 2,31 70 42% 129 1,03 4 0,71 6000 Test 200 185 129 91 121 1,33 30 65% 140 0,94 (8) 0,68 7000 RVM 160 165 27 25 27 1,06 1 16% 156 1,01 0 0,99 8000 KIDM 0 74 27 8 25 3,35 18 34% 22 0,95 (1) 0,73 8000 KID VS 0 67 0 0 0 1,00 - 0% 67 1,00 - 1,00 9000 BKSO 267 160 118 93 120 1,30 28 75% 123 1,02 2 0,59 90000 Projektmanagement 500 500 255 255 255 1,00 (0) 51% 500 1,00 0 1,00 91000 Allgemeines Projekt Management 400 92000 Architektur 100 93000 Abstimmung mit Betrieb 0 99999 TPL Meetings 0 KID 0 149 99 99 99 1,00 - 66% 149 1,00 - 1,00 Restarbeit KID K & HH ca. 5+25 PTs (April/Mai) KID bis Ende Juli geleistet: 99 PT, s.o. KID Rest (HH, K, Trouble Shooting): 50 PT
  49. 49. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 49 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Agenda 1 2 3 4 Earned Value Einführung, Definition, Nutzen Vergleich verschiedener “Forecast”-Methoden Terminologie und Fragestellungen Berechnungsbeispiel zu Earned Value 5 Beispielbericht SOKO Juli 205 Hints & Tips Anhang 6 7
  50. 50. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 50 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Earned Value Strategies (zur Bestimmung von BCWP) 0-100% 100% of “work to be performed” is reported as earned at completion of the task. 50-50% 50% of “work to be performed” is reported as earned at initiation of task, 50% at completion of task. % Complete A cumulative percentage of the total work planned - which is currently completed - is reported as earned. Summary Level % A declared % of work is allocated for summary activities, and the designated % of work performed is earned at the completion of the activities. Remaining Effort The actual effort expended to date as a percentage of actual and anticipate work to be expended. Milestone Gewichtung Laufende Aufwände (PL, Architektur, etc.) gleichmäßig ansetzen CPI unterstützt „Design to Cost“ Ansatz Kommunikation der CPI Werte auf Teilprojekt-, nicht auf Taskbasis  Teaming wird unterstützt
  51. 51. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 51 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Exkurs: 50-50 Regel (Theorie) Theorie • Der Fehler bei einer gerade erst begonnen Aktivität (überbewertet) wird durch eine kurz vor Abschluß stehende Aktivität (unterbewertet) wieder aufgehoben oder ist vernachlässigbar. • Aufgrund der WBS-Detaillierung < 4 Wochen, tritt der Fehler im Folgemonat nicht mehr auf; neu Aktivitäten kommen jedoch hinzu. • Mit zunehmender Projektdauer geht er systematische Fehler gegen Null, da der im Berichtszeitraum liegende Aufwand überproportional kleiner ist als der bereits geleistete Aufwand in den Vorperioden (BCWP Vorperioden >> BCWP Berichtsperiode) • Mit Hilfe der 50/50 Regel wird der obligatorische Schätzaufwand für die geleistete Arbeit vermieden. • Die subjektive Schätzung „wie viel einer Arbeit bereits geleistet wurde“, wird reduziert auf das objektive Eintreten von Ereignissen der Art: – Liegt der Planstart vor dem Berichtszeitpunkt 0% oder 50% – Liegt das Planende vor dem Berichtszeitpunkt 0% oder 50% – Liegt der Iststart vor dem Berichtszeitpunkt 0% oder 50% – Liegt das Istende vor dem Berichtszeitpunkt 0% oder 50%
  52. 52. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 52 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 EVA Regeln  Plane Deine Arbeit bevor Du beginnst;  Messe Deine Performance mit objektiven, technischen Kriterien; z.B. #Srv Abbauten, # umgezogene DBs  Analysiere Deinen Status und deine Vorhersagen anhand eines in Phasen/Aktivitäten aufgeteilten Projektplans  Analysiere Deine Ausgaben unter dem Aspekt Deiner geleisteten Arbeit (nicht der geplanten Arbeit);  Schätze das Fertigstellungsdatum und die Gesamtkosten;  Korrigiere Deine Pläne, wenn notwendig;  Kontrolliere diszipliniert Deine Basis für die Performance Messung.
  53. 53. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 53 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Pitfalls & Special Considerations  1. Collection of Actuals (Effort Expended and % Complete) isn’t easy.  2. Calculation of BCWP (% Complete) must be discrete.  3. Changes in scope require “Re-Baselining” BAC.  4. Remaining Effort should not be used to calculate % Complete.  5. Works Councils may prevent the implementation Time Reporting System.  6. Compute Earned Value with Effort, NOT Cost.
  54. 54. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 54 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Link im iRAM zum EV Template und „Cookbook“: https://w3.tap.ibm.com/com.ibm.ram/assetDetail/generalDetails.faces?guid={244C220E-AA51-D04 Bitte Bewertung nicht vergessen... (-:
  55. 55. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 55 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Agenda 1 2 3 4 Earned Value Einführung, Definition, Nutzen Vergleich verschiedener “Forecast”-Methoden Terminologie und Fragestellungen Berechnungsbeispiel zu Earned Value 5 Beispielbericht SOKO Juli 205 Hints & Tips Anhang 6 7
  56. 56. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 56 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 Earned Value Analysis: Entstehung der Methode  1959 PERT and PERT/Cost — Milestone Charts And Rate-of Expenditure Curves — Dollars Spent Vs Estimates Of Percent Complete (DD 1097)  1963 Earned Value Concept (MINUTEMAN)  1964 Cost Accomplishment Concept (TITAN III)  1966 AF—Cost/schedule Planning And Control Specification (C/SPCS)  1967 DOD—Cost/Schedule Control Systems Criteria (C/SCSC) (DODI 7000.2)  1972 DOD—-Revised DODI 7000.2 and Issued the Joint Implementation Guide (JIG)  1972 NASA Marshall Space Flight Center—C/SPC  1975 DOE—Performance Measurement System (PMS)  1976 DOD—Revised the C/SCSC JIG  1980 DOD—Revised the C/SCSC JIG  1982 National Security Agency—Earned Value  1983 NASA—Goddard Space Flight Center—PMS  1984 FAA & NASA Lewis Research Center—PMS  1985 NASA Johnson Space Flight Center—PMS  1987 DOD—Revised DOD C/SCSC JIG  1988 NASA Marshall SFC—Revised PMS (MMI 8020.7C, 44 Criteria)  1989 Australian DOD—DODI 7000.2  1990 Canadian DOD—PMS  1991 DODI 5000.2 replaces DODI 7000.2  1992 National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)—PMS  1993 Swedish FMV—C/SCSC  1994 Internal Revenue Service (IRS)—C/SCSC  1994 Federal Bureau Of Investigation (FBI) —C/SCSC  1996 DODR 5000.2-R replaces DODI 5000.2 C/SCSC revised from 35 to 32 criteria  1996 Revised JIG—Renamed Earned Value Management Implementation Guide (EVMIG)  1997 EVMIG Revised  1998 MIL-STD 881B replaced by MIL HDBK 881
  57. 57. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 57 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun EVA Daten Elemente T/N Cost Variance Schedule Variance Projected Program Delay VAC EAC BAC ACWP BCWP BCWS ETC Schedule Slip
  58. 58. IBM Global Services (ITS) © 2004 IBM Corporation 58 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15 EVA Informationen (ungeprüft)  Bücher  Earned Value Quentin W. Fleming & Joel M. Koppleman  Cost/Schedule Control Systems Criteria Quentin W. Fleming  Project Performance Measurement Robert R. Kemps  Visualizing Project Management Kevin Forsberg, Ph.D., Hal Mooz and Howard Cotterman  Software  Artemis Views Artemis Management Systems Contact: Patrick Perugini (303) 581-3102 Web: http://www.artemispm.com  Cobra Welcom Software Contact: Diana Melton (281) 558-0514 Web: http://www.wst.com  Software [Fortsetzung]  Dekker TRAKKER Dekker Ltd. Contact: Ron Barry (909) 384-9000 Web: http://www.dtrakker.com  MicroFrame Project Manager (MPM) MicroFrame Technologies, Inc. Contact: Carl Amacker (415) 616-4000 Web: http://www.microframe.com  Internet  Project Management Institute http://www.pmi.org  US DoD Earned Value http://www.acq.osd.mil/pm  Earned Value Bibliography http://www.uwf.edu/~dchriste/ev-bib.html  Amazon.com http://www.amazon.com

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