Se ha denunciado esta presentación.
Utilizamos tu perfil de LinkedIn y tus datos de actividad para personalizar los anuncios y mostrarte publicidad más relevante. Puedes cambiar tus preferencias de publicidad en cualquier momento.
LECTURE L03
EXPONENTIAL WORLD
CURRENT EVENTS
HEADS UP DISPLAY
LECTURE L03
EXPONENTIAL WORLD
Process by which an organisation transforms labor, capital,
material, and information into products and services of greate...
The value you get out of a product for which you have 

paid some cost
Product Performance
Innovation
The change in the technology
HOW DOES TECHNOLOGY EVOLVE?
Evolution of technology is closely

linked with the evolution of mankind
Charles Darwin published
“On The Origin of Species” in 1852
Evolutionary Process
Each generation
breeds the next, 

and becomes 

an input
Samuel Butler
published 1859 

a letter to the editor of
the Press
in New Zealand,
called
“Darwin among the
Machines”
King...
Kevin Kelly: The Seventh Kingdom
Kevin Kelly’s
The Seventh Kingdom
http://www.bordalierinstitute.com/images/brainEvolution.jpg
Evolution of the 

human brain
EXPONENTIAL
IF PRODUCT PERFORMANCE DOUBLES EVERY YEAR
IN 10 YEARS WE HAVE 1,000 FOLD 

INCREASE IN PERFOMANCE
IN 30 YEARS WE HAVE 1,00...
THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION
IBM System/360
360/20 with 24K of memory
Computers in 1964
Transistor, 1947
Integrated circuit, 1959
Intel 4004, 1971
Vacuum tube, 1904
THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION
Gordon Moore
published an article
in 1965 called
“Cramming More
Components onto
Integrated Circuits”
Number of transistors on

an integrated circuit will double
in about 18-24 months
Moore’s Law
Number of transistors on

an integrated circuit will double
in about 18-24 months.
Moore’s Law
Technological growth

accelerates
Exponential Growth
The Fifth Paradigm
1977
Apple II $1,298
4000 bytes memory
Motorola 6502 1MHz
2007
iMac 17-inch $1,199
1GB memory
Intel 2.0GHz
30 years of pro...
iPad	
  2	
  as	
  fast	
  as	
  Cray	
  2	
  supercomputer,	
  
fraction	
  of	
  the	
  size

Read	
  more:	
  http://ww...
Slow growth in the beginning
than accelerates
Exponential Growth
Flickr	
  picture	
  by	
  spwelton
SECOND HALF OF THE CHESSBOARD
The Legend of the

Ambalappuzha Paal Payasam
Number of transistors on

an integrated circuit will double
in about 18-24 months
Moore’s Law
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
COMPUTERS WILL BE FASTER
COMPUTERS WILL BE SMALLER
COMPUTERS WILL BE CHEAPER
STUDY EXERCISE
THINGS THAT ONCE WHERE IMPOSSIBLE BECOME POSSIBLE
From a 1946 Comic strip to CES 2009
And from 2009 to 2014
ANY NEW TECHNOLOGY
THAT COMES TO THE MARKET

IS LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST 10 YEARS OLD
Source:	
  http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/
id2008012_297369.htm	
  
Bill Buxton’s 

Long nose of Inn...
Growth of
Technology
Evolutionary processes – both

biology and technology, tend to 

a c c e l e r a t e
Ray Kurzweil on how technology will transform us (from TED.com)
PLANS ARE USUALLY ASUME 

LINAR GROWTH
DESIGN PRODUCTS WITH TECHNOLOGY OF

THE FUTURE IN MIND
TECHNOLOGICAL PREDICTIONS 

ARE USUALLY RIGHT,
JUST WRONG IN TIME
MOST PRODUCTS FAIL
BECAUSE ALL THE
ENABLING FACTORS

ARE IN PLACE WHEN NEEDED
The Law of Accelerating Returns
Evolution applies positive feedback in that the
more capable methods resulting from one st...
“An analysis of the history of technology
shows that technological change is
exponential, contrary to the common-
sense ‘i...
Disruptive stress or

opportunity
Growth of technology
Our view of the world
DISRUPTIVE STRESS
TECHNOLOGY IS CAUSING PROBLEMS
ESTABLISHED COMPANIES ARE TREATED

BUSINESS MODELS BECOME IRRELEVANT

LAW...
DISRUPTIVE OPPURTINTY
NEVER BEFORE IN HISTORY HAS SOME 

MUCH OPPORTUNITY BE AVAILABLE TO

SO MANY PEOPLE
Is this evolution of technology good?
Technology is neither
good nor bad; nor is it
neutral
Kranzberg’s 1. law of technology
Peter Diamandis
Why did smartwatches appear in 2014

when the idea came in the 50s
QUESTION
Adjacent Possible
NEXT
NEXT
The Adjacent Possible
New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World
New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World
New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World
New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World
New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World
New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World
New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World
New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World
New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World
New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World
New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World
New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World
New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World
New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World
New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World
New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World
New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World
Próxima SlideShare
Cargando en…5
×

New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World

1.126 visualizaciones

Publicado el

For the most time of human history, life was local and linear. Local in the way that anything that happened was close by, a least within a walking distance. Linear in the way that your life was the same as your father and your children. Nothing changed.

Just like the evolution of man, technology improvements follow an evolutionary progress. New ideas or products are to begin with immature and fragile with slow improvements. Then the progress accelerates until the products become mature and taken for granted. Then the cycle repeats and a new layer of technology is added to the previous. This process is exponential. One such observation of exponential is Moore’s Law.

Any new technology that gets wide acceptance in society needs to be adopted by people. We will explore that type of people are the first to adopt new things, and what types come later.

Publicado en: Tecnología
  • Inicia sesión para ver los comentarios

New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World

  1. 1. LECTURE L03 EXPONENTIAL WORLD
  2. 2. CURRENT EVENTS
  3. 3. HEADS UP DISPLAY
  4. 4. LECTURE L03 EXPONENTIAL WORLD
  5. 5. Process by which an organisation transforms labor, capital, material, and information into products and services of greater values Technology
  6. 6. The value you get out of a product for which you have 
 paid some cost Product Performance
  7. 7. Innovation The change in the technology
  8. 8. HOW DOES TECHNOLOGY EVOLVE?
  9. 9. Evolution of technology is closely
 linked with the evolution of mankind
  10. 10. Charles Darwin published “On The Origin of Species” in 1852
  11. 11. Evolutionary Process Each generation breeds the next, 
 and becomes 
 an input
  12. 12. Samuel Butler published 1859 
 a letter to the editor of the Press in New Zealand, called “Darwin among the Machines” Kingdom of the machines
  13. 13. Kevin Kelly: The Seventh Kingdom
  14. 14. Kevin Kelly’s The Seventh Kingdom
  15. 15. http://www.bordalierinstitute.com/images/brainEvolution.jpg Evolution of the 
 human brain
  16. 16. EXPONENTIAL
  17. 17. IF PRODUCT PERFORMANCE DOUBLES EVERY YEAR IN 10 YEARS WE HAVE 1,000 FOLD 
 INCREASE IN PERFOMANCE IN 30 YEARS WE HAVE 1,000,000,000 FOLD 
 INCREASE IN PERFOMANCE
  18. 18. THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION
  19. 19. IBM System/360 360/20 with 24K of memory Computers in 1964
  20. 20. Transistor, 1947 Integrated circuit, 1959 Intel 4004, 1971 Vacuum tube, 1904 THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION
  21. 21. Gordon Moore published an article in 1965 called “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits”
  22. 22. Number of transistors on
 an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months Moore’s Law
  23. 23. Number of transistors on
 an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months. Moore’s Law
  24. 24. Technological growth accelerates
  25. 25. Exponential Growth
  26. 26. The Fifth Paradigm
  27. 27. 1977 Apple II $1,298 4000 bytes memory Motorola 6502 1MHz 2007 iMac 17-inch $1,199 1GB memory Intel 2.0GHz 30 years of product improvements
  28. 28. iPad  2  as  fast  as  Cray  2  supercomputer,   fraction  of  the  size
 Read  more:  http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4 Cray 2 1985 Apple iPad 2 2011 30 years of product improvements
  29. 29. Slow growth in the beginning than accelerates Exponential Growth
  30. 30. Flickr  picture  by  spwelton SECOND HALF OF THE CHESSBOARD
  31. 31. The Legend of the
 Ambalappuzha Paal Payasam
  32. 32. Number of transistors on
 an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months Moore’s Law
  33. 33. EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
  34. 34. COMPUTERS WILL BE FASTER
  35. 35. COMPUTERS WILL BE SMALLER
  36. 36. COMPUTERS WILL BE CHEAPER
  37. 37. STUDY EXERCISE
  38. 38. THINGS THAT ONCE WHERE IMPOSSIBLE BECOME POSSIBLE
  39. 39. From a 1946 Comic strip to CES 2009
  40. 40. And from 2009 to 2014
  41. 41. ANY NEW TECHNOLOGY THAT COMES TO THE MARKET
 IS LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST 10 YEARS OLD
  42. 42. Source:  http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/ id2008012_297369.htm   Bill Buxton’s 
 Long nose of Innovation The Long Nose of Innovation
  43. 43. Growth of Technology Evolutionary processes – both
 biology and technology, tend to 
 a c c e l e r a t e
  44. 44. Ray Kurzweil on how technology will transform us (from TED.com)
  45. 45. PLANS ARE USUALLY ASUME 
 LINAR GROWTH
  46. 46. DESIGN PRODUCTS WITH TECHNOLOGY OF
 THE FUTURE IN MIND
  47. 47. TECHNOLOGICAL PREDICTIONS 
 ARE USUALLY RIGHT, JUST WRONG IN TIME
  48. 48. MOST PRODUCTS FAIL BECAUSE ALL THE ENABLING FACTORS
 ARE IN PLACE WHEN NEEDED
  49. 49. The Law of Accelerating Returns Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage.     As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time.
  50. 50. “An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common- sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress 
 (at today's rate).” - Ray Kurzweil
  51. 51. Disruptive stress or
 opportunity Growth of technology Our view of the world
  52. 52. DISRUPTIVE STRESS TECHNOLOGY IS CAUSING PROBLEMS ESTABLISHED COMPANIES ARE TREATED
 BUSINESS MODELS BECOME IRRELEVANT
 LAWS BECOME USELESS
  53. 53. DISRUPTIVE OPPURTINTY NEVER BEFORE IN HISTORY HAS SOME 
 MUCH OPPORTUNITY BE AVAILABLE TO
 SO MANY PEOPLE
  54. 54. Is this evolution of technology good?
  55. 55. Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral Kranzberg’s 1. law of technology
  56. 56. Peter Diamandis
  57. 57. Why did smartwatches appear in 2014
 when the idea came in the 50s QUESTION
  58. 58. Adjacent Possible NEXT
  59. 59. NEXT The Adjacent Possible

×