After the computing industry got started, a new problem quickly emerged. How do you operate this machines and how to you program them. The development of operating systems was relatively slow compared to the advances in hardware. First system were primitive but slowly got better as demand for computing power incresed. The ideas of the Graphical User Interfaces or GUI (Gooey) go back to Doug Engelbarts Demo of the Century. However, this did not have much impact on the computer industry. One company though, Xerox, a photocopy company explored these ideas with Palo Alto Park. Steve Jobs of Apple and Bill Gates of Microsoft took notice and Apple introduced first Apple Lisa and the Macintosh. In this lecture on we look so lessons for the development of software, and see how our business theories apply. In this lecture on we look so lessons for the development of software, and see how our business theories apply.

1. LECTURE L14
SOFTWARE AND MACHINE LEARNING

2. The Software Crisis

3. Software
As computers became more powerful and more common, a new
problem surfaced: software
Development of computers was a hardware problem
Software or programs did not get the same attention
Operating systems were primitive and programming
was done at a very low level

4. “[The major cause of the software crisis is] that the machines
have become several orders of magnitude more powerful!”
- Edsger Dijkstra, The Humble Programmer
Source: Software_crisis
Software Engineering was not a established field
Became known as The Software Crisis
The Software Crisis

5. Q1
What solved the software crisis?

6. IBM developed OS/360 for System 360
DEC developed VMS for VAX
Unix was grew out individual efforts as response to Multix
System V, BSD, Solaris
Minix was an academic effort, Linux grew out of frustration with Minix
license
Operating Systems

7. FORTRAN
Mathematical Formula Translation System
Released in 1957
Higher level language that became
breakthrough in writing software
Created by John Backus of IBM
Came on 2.000 punched cards
Other languages followed: COBOL, Algol
Programming Languages

11. May 25, 1961
Status:
Mainframe era, mini computer early days
Transistor era, integrated circuits just invented
Programming languages new

12. Q2
What role did the US space program
have on computer innovation?

13. “The space program badly needed the things the
integrated circuit could provide.”
- Jack St. Clair Kilby

14. Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore founded Intel
Semiconductor company
Initial focus was on memory chips
There was still enormous potential market for calculations
The vision of Charles Babbage was still not realized but the mainframe
market met the needs of governments and large organizations
Semiconductor Industry is Born

15. Intel introduced the first microprocessor 4004 in 1971
8008 in 1972, 8080 in 1974 and 8088 in 1979
The beginning of the PC
The Microprocessor

16. The Microprocessor
Intel was really reluctant to go into the microchip business
No market existed
No demand at the time
Intel created 4004 for another company
They would not market chips, but built them when ordered
The company cancelled the order and Intel was forced to offer them for sale

17. Q3
What was the first product in the
market after the introduction of
computer chips?
HINT: It disrupted a device that
was invented in1625

18. The Calculator

19. The Calculator
Advances in technology introduced the
desktop calculator
The market grew fast
With advances, the calculators became more powerful and smaller
Pocket calculators
Became widespread in the 70s
Replaced the slide rule after 374 years

20. Calculator Wars
Many companies start to make Calculators
Casio, Sharp, Canon, HP, MITS and more
In Europe, Aristo, Denner & Pape, a slide rule manufacturer
since 1872, also entered the market in 1972
Price dropped fast: $400 in 1972, $200, $100 and $50 in 1974
Companies like MITS need to find new ways of revenues

21. Think about this!
All mini-computer companies had
what it would take to go into small
scale products – they even had
people proposing the idea, but they
did not!

22. The Personal Computer

23. The Personal Computer
MITS marketed Altair in 1975
Came with Intel 8080
Users needed to assemble the machine themselves
No keyboard, no screen, no printer
256 byte of RAM, programmed with switches
Included BASIC interpreter from Microsoft
Written by Bill Gates and Paul Allen
Cost of $397 appealed to computer enthusiasts

24. Microsoft is Born
Bill Gates and Paul Allen
Wrote a BASIC interpreter
for the Altair
Founded a company they called
Micro-Soft

25. Enter Apple
Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak
Show the Apple I in the Palo Alto
Homebrew Computer Club in 1976
Apple II was marketed 1977 and became a huge
success - “Apple growth”
Hewlett-Packard had turn Wozniak down – no market

26. “The Personal Computer will fall flat on its face in
business.”
- Ken Olsen

27. Computer Companies
Existing computer companies were not interested in PCs
DEC, HP, IBM, and Control Data did not see a business model
HP rejected a proposal from Steve Wozniak
DEC rejected a proposal from David Ahl
Support for machines like this was considered impossible
Consequence:
The development of the PC had to begin with hobbyists

29. Think About This!
The Liquid Network

30. The Software Industry
First applications were non-serious
Soon business applications started to emerge
VisiCalc was the “killer-app” 20% of computer
sales was due to this program
Other business apps appeared:
Ledgers, payrolls, inventory, etc.
Disruptive technology

31. Killer Apps
Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston
Created VisiCalc, the first spreadsheet
The spreadsheet created a new market
People bought the hardware to run the software

33. Q4
IBM successfully entered the
PC market – according to RPV
theory this would be difficult.
How did they do this?

34. IBM PC
IBM decided to enter the PC revolution
The company was loosing market share, competition was growing
Project “Chess”
Bill Lowe was given one year to create a Personal Computer – “Acorn”
Lowe and his team – “Dirty Dozen”, went to work in Boca Raton, FL
Looked for parts outside of the company

35. The War of the OS
IBM needed an Operating System
Most popular system was Digital Research CP/M, created by Gary
Kildall
Microsoft was providing programming languages
and suggested that IBM make a deal with DR

36. Robert X. Cringely PBS documentary
The Birth of the Microsoft DOS

38. The War of the OS
IBM decided on PC-DOS from Microsoft which bought the OS from
another company
Negotiated revenue sharing with IBM
In the 80s, DOS had 90% of the OS market

39. PC-DOS
Small system
Came on a floppy

40. IBM PC
The IBM PC was introduced 12.
August 1981 in New York
4.7 MHz Intel 8088, 16 kb RAM,
DOS 1.0 for $1.565

42. Enter the Clones

43. Enter the Clones
IBM released all the specification of the machine
Open system
This allowed new entrants to create IBM compatible machines
Compac was one of them

44. Enter the Clones
IBM controlled the market for a few years
They rationalised their product lines - deliberately restricted
performance of lower-priced models in order to prevent them from
cannibalising higher-priced models
The Compac passed them in 1986 with the Intel 386 machines
The PC market took off
IBM started to loose market share

45. PC Compatible Machines Ruled
Early 80s IBM PC became the standard
hardware
MS-DOS became the industry standard OS
Command Line Interface – CLI
Text User Interfaces – TUI

46. Key Trend
Focus in on hardware, the
software is good-enough

47. Adoption Life Cycle
Still in the early stages –
technology is the focus

48. “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”
- Alan Key
“The Demo” of the Century in 1968

49. The Demo
1968

50. The Demo in 1968
Doug Engelbart at the Augmentation
Research Centre in Melno Park
Demonstrated the future of computing

52. Features
A pointing device – the Mouse
Hypertext, graphical user interface
Dynamic file linking
Shared-screen collaboration involving
two persons at different sites
communicating over a network with
audio and video interface

53. Xerox Parc

54. Xerox Parc
Alto Computer 1972
Xerox created a lab in 1970
Palo Alto Research Park – PARC
PARC was a place for visionaries
The Alto computer system had
Graphical User Interface – GUI
and a mouse as an input
Desktop metaphor with Files and folders

57. Then Steve came on a visit

59. Graphical User Interfaces – GUI
Steve Jobs visited Xerox PARC 1979
Negotiated at deal with Xerox
They showed him:
Object Oriented Programming
Computer networks
Graphical User Interface
Apple started to work on this vision
The Pirate Years

60. RPV Theory
Xerox had just build the
OS of the future but they
did nothing with it

62. Graphical User Interfaces – GUI
Desktop metaphor
Point,
Click,
Drag
Files, folders
Icons
Windows, scroll bars
Menus
Graphical fonts Clipboard, cut and paste, undo
Point, activate, select

63. Apple Lisa
First commercial computer with a
GUI
Introduced in January 1983
Cost $9.995
Motorola 68000 CPU at a 5 MHz
clock rate and had 1MB RAM
Featured cooperative (non-
preemptive)
multi-tasking and virtual memory

64. Q5
Why did the Lisa fail?

65. Apple Lisa
First commercial computer
with a GUI
Introduced in January 1983
Cost $9.995
Impact:
Business failure
Too expensive
Too slow

66. Adjacent Possible
Technology wasn’t there yet

67. Macintosh
In 1984, Apple launched Macintosh
Cost $1.995
Graphical User Interface
This set the standard for
Operating Systems
Specification:
128 KB of RAM
Screen was a 9-inch,
512x342 pixel monochrome display

69. Macintosh
Acceptance was slow
The Mac was underpowered
The GUI required memory and power
Writing Software was difficult
Gained popularity in education and with
graphical designers – desktop publishers
Not so popular in the traditional business sector
Microsoft provided applications (office apps)

70. Others Join the Game
Microsoft launched Windows 1.01 in 1985
Gates and Microsoft believed Graphical User Interfaces
were the future
Regarded Front-end to DOS
Other players
IBM TopView, DR GEM
Impact
Software companies ignored Windows
The business sector was not ready

71. DOS was in Crisis
By 1985 Microsoft had released DOS 3
But frustration increased

72. Q6
What were customers looking for?

73. DOS was in Crisis
Single task system – you can only run one program at the time
The 640 KB memory barrier
TSR – Terminate and Stay Resident
became popular but was causing problems
Users were looking for multitasking
Run more than one program at a time
More advanced operating system
was needed

74. Windows 3.0
Windows finally became usable
Released May 1990
Better use of memory
Multitasking
Used the 286 and 386 hardware better
Support for CD-ROM
Solitaire
Impact:
First GUI used by the
PC market
The end of DOS, finally

75. Windows 95

77. KEY TREND
Computers become
consumer devices

79. Windows 95
Microsoft turned to consumers
Windows 95 was targeted at the consumer market
Support for the Internet
Internet Explorer
Friendlier user interfaces
Impact
Released with great fanfare
Came to dominate the OS market
The OS become more important than the
hardware

81. Operating System for Consumers

83. Operating Systems Today
Ubuntu
Mac OS X
Windows
More choices, less important

84. Operating Systems Today
iOS
Android

85. Lessons
▪ Shift from hardware to software
▪ None of the minicomputer makers became a
significant factor in the desktop personal
computer market
▪ The PC was disruptive technology
▪ The minicomputer users were not buying PCs –
yet
▪ This created a new set of entrants: Apple, Tandy,
Commodore, and IBM

86. ▪ In the late 1980s the performance of PCs met the
needs of minicomputer users
▪ This severely wounded minicomputer makers –
many of them failed
▪ At same time IBM succeeded in entering the PC
market – how?
▪ It created an autonomous organization in Florida –
far away from it’s New York headquarters
▪ They created the PC market
▪ Then headquarters took control and lost control to
the Clones
Lessons

87. ▪ Xerox mangement did not enter the computer
market
▪ PARC members tried to show management – but
they “just didn’t get it”
▪ Xerox is in the copying documents business –
their customers were not asking for computer
systems
▪ Visionary Computers did not fit their resources,
processes and values
– RPV theory
Lessons

88. ▪ Doug Englebart envisioned the future of
computers
▪ Xerox PARC built the visionary computer – but
did not pursue it
▪ Early enthusiast like Ed Roberts of MITS and
others did not get rich of computers and
software
▪ Visionaries like Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston
invented VisiCalc – did not make much money
Lessons

89. Lessons
▪ Bill Gates saw the potential of software and started
Microsoft
▪ Took the opportunity with MITS
▪ Focused on software
▪ Gary Kildall invented the C/PM system but Microsoft
bought similar OS and succeeded
▪ Wrote software for Apple and later Macintosh
▪ You don’t have to have superior products to win
▪ You don’t have to invent technology – just use it

90. Lessons
▪ Apple and Steve Jobs saw the potential of computers
and then GUIs
▪ GUI were slow to appear
▪ Infrastructure product - needs software and users
▪ Stretched the hardware at the time
▪ Disruptive with new market – consumers
▪ Apple Lisa failed – lacking in performance
▪ The Macintosh started slowly and found some niche
market in Desktop Publishing and schools

91. Lessons
▪ Windows 95 was marketed to the consumer
▪ First mass market of Operating Systems
– The Internet helped
▪ Today we have three major Operating Systems
– Linux (Unix based)
– MacOS (Unix based)
– Windows

92. Q7
What is the future of Personal Computers and
Operating Systems?

93. 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Hardware era
PC, Mac
Software OS era
Windows, Office, MacOS
Internet
Hardware Connects
IBM PC Microsoft
Apple
2010
Software web era
Web 2.0, Social
2015
Internet of things
PC Evolution

94. Interaction is changing to
natural interaction

95. Computers are changing
shape and becoming
invisible

96. Wearables, flyable, drivable, scannable…

97. The Network is the Computer
The Internet cloud
More programs and data is stored on network
servers
The Personal Computer becomes one of the form
factors to access the network
Examples
Amazon API
Google Apps
Facework Platform API

98. Machine Learning

99. Machine Learning
Breakthroughs in computer performance (GPUs), algorithms, cloud
computing and big data, has finally created an environment where
neural networks - systems that learn have become a reality
The ideas of learning systems came very early but failed to become
practical

101. Fraud detection
Web search results
Real-time ads on web pages and mobile devices
Text-based sentiment analysis
Credit scoring and next-best offers
Prediction of equipment failures
New pricing models
Network intrusion detection
Pattern and image recognition
Email spam filtering
Application

103. Google has TensorFlow, an Open Source Software Library for
Machine Intelligence
Machine Learning Platform
Now platforms are becoming available
Amazon has Amazon Machine Learning
Microsoft is providing machine learning as part of Cortana Analytics
Suite

105. Human intelligence
Artificial intelligence We are here
Intelligence
Time
Machine Intelligence

106. Next
L15 Augmented and Virtual Reality