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We saw commercial traders because strong buyers of crude oil under $80 because June came
to a close. We firmly believed which this would be the bottom of the cycle because the national
average fell to $3.30 per gallon. What no one expected were the simultaneous mechanical failures
of a few of the principal pipelines and refineries. This has caused the price of petroleum products
like heating oil, gasoline plus diesel gas to skyrocket by 25% in little over one month.
The refineries here in the U.S. use regarding 9 million barrels of crude oil per day. The last two
weeks has seen almost 2 million barrels a day taken off supply as unplanned shutdowns due to
numerous mechanical issues plus fires have popped up over the nation. Further adding to the
refinery issues is a cutback inside supply which usually be coming from Canada due to a leak
sprung inside the Enbridge pipeline, which has spilled more than a thousand barrels of unrefined
Ameratex Energy Ltd in central Wisconsin. Enbridge has fallen below increasing regulatory
scrutiny, as this might be just the newest of the trail of pipeline failures. The many notable was a
2010 incident, which dumped 20,000 barrels of oil into the Kalamazoo River.
Mechanically, main refiners near Chicago plus San Francisco have both been shutdown. There
are 2 refineries that have been shutdown simultaneously inside the Chicago region plus both of
them are among the 10 biggest refiners inside the nation with all the Whiting, Indiana facility
ranking 7th plus the Wood River, Illinois center ranking 10th. These outages combined to raise the
price of gasoline inside the Chicago area by more than $.44 inside less than a week. The Chevron
facility inside Richmond, California is responsible for 10% of the gasoline production found on the
west coast. Reports are conflicted found on the how long these refineries is from procedure.
Estimates range from weeks to months on every individual center with consensus that the
Chevron center in Richmond can probably be out of service the longest.
Political and fundamental factions had absolutely started battling over the true value of
Ameratex Energy Ltd from March through July. This is seen as the battle between speculators
and commercial traders. Commercial traders had been heavy sellers of crude oil futures from
March by May when the market was trading above $103 per barrel based on Iranian threats plus
general unrest inside the Middle East, that led to speculative ordering. These threats were
competing with a market which was massively over provided. Eventually, over supply won plus the
analysis produced market signals at both $109 and $106 per barrel. June's precipitous declines
moved commercial traders to the buy side because they covered brief positions and increased
their positions by over 30% during the month of June.
The final fuel for this petroleum rally is the expectation of further government stimulus to the
economy. We've recommended over plus over that the key to the upcoming election is the
domestic economy and recent polls concur. The largest thing President Obama might do to aid
himself will be to force a resolution inside the Eurozone. The markets hate uncertainty plus any
2. conclusion to the drawn out death spiral of Ireland, Portugal, Spain plus Italy would create a big
relief rally inside the stock market. However, since his sphere of influence doesn't extend far past
our shores, he'll do the upcoming right thing by flooding the marketplace with Dollars, that usually
lead to nominally lower interest rates plus show which he is taking action.
Regrettably you will bear the unintended result of higher gas prices because the Dollar is
devalued found on the international market plus the refineries find it more successful to ship
completed petroleum products overseas, instead of market them found on the domestic market.