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Osimo crossover-roadmap

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Osimo crossover-roadmap

  1. 1. POLICY-MAKING 2.0 CONFERENCE David Osimo www.crossover-project.eu #policy20 Policy Making 2.0: a research roadmap towards actual policy impact
  2. 2. MAIN POINTS  The problem: The challenges of policy making  The goals of the roadmap: a platform to strengthen the community towards shared objectives  The method: open and recursive  A vision for a new policy 2.0  The research challenges to get there  The critic: is this enough? Between techno-utopianism and real policy impact  What’s next? The beginning of a beautiful friendship…
  3. 3. POLICY-MAKING IN A COMPLEX WORLD: THE CHALLENGES  Detect and understand problems before they become unsolvable, ensuring long-term thinking, dealing with “unknown unknowns”  Involve open intelligence in policy-making, and extract “good ideas” from it  From words to action: ensure implementation and actual behavioural change  Reduce uncertainty on the possible systemic impacts of policies, and reduce time-to-impact evaluation  All this,dealing with a distributed governance model. The traditional division of “market” and “state” no longer fits a reality where public decision and action is effectively carried out by a plurality of actors.
  4. 4. GOALS: BUILDING BRIDGES, OVERCOMING THE FRAGMENTATION IN AN EMERGING FIELD Disciplines Policy domains Stakeholders Countries •Economics, •physics, •mathematics, •computer science, •psychology, •social sciences •Health, •economy, •labour market, •social affairs, •environment, •transport •Researchers, •industry, •civil society, •government •FP7 vs Hackers •EU, •US, •BRICs, •developing countries
  5. 5. METHOD: OPEN AND RECURSIVE
  6. 6. METHOD: OPEN AND RECURSIVE 202 cases 4 case studies 740 members 236 responde nts 200+ people in f2f discussions Brussels: 70 participants, 42 papers Washington: 30 participants, 16 papers 40 comments GSS and third party workshops 50 apps prize Links to US PIN
  7. 7. A VISION: A THIRD WAY OF POLICY MAKING? + Emergent + Open + Peer2peer + Unexpected Direct Democracy - Social media - Populism - Unstructured discussion - Loudest voice + Expert based decisions + Robust + Relevant Technocracy - Black box - Closed models - Reductionism
  8. 8. A VISION: A THIRD WAY OF POLICY MAKING? + Emergent + Open + Peer2peer + Unexpected Direct Democracy - Social media - Populism - Unstructured discussion - Loudest voice + Expert based decisions + Robust + Relevant Technocracy - Black box - Closed models - Reductionism Policy-making 2.0: Open and evidence based
  9. 9. COVERING THE FULL POLICY CYCLE
  10. 10. ANTICIPATING THE UNEXPECTED: BIG AND OPEN DATA
  11. 11. POLICY DESIGN: SMART CROWDSOURCING
  12. 12. POLICY OPTIONS SIMULATION UrbanSIM case
  13. 13. TURNING POLICY IN IMPACT: APPS FOR BEHAVIOURAL CHANGE
  14. 14. SENSE MAKING IN EVALUATION THROUGH OPEN DATA http://stateofworkingamerica.org/who- gains/#/?start=2000&end=2008
  15. 15. ROADMAP OVERVIEW (1) Name State of the Art Gaps Short Term Research Long Term Research Systems of Atomized models Some modelling environments provide libraries of ready-to-use models, but in most cases, they are not completely open Developing components for a specific framework constrains use Open-source modelling and simulation environments,open visualisation of results Definition of open modelling standards, interoperability Collaborativ e Modelling Mainly performed offline, urgent need for Intuitive Interfaces Citizens collaboration in the public policy modelling process Group model building and systems thinking, Web 2.0 tools for collaboration Collaborative Internet-based modelling tools Big Data Public health, environmental analysis, crisis management and anticipation Privacy, data access and sharing data, interpreting data Crowdsourcing, data mining, network analysis, predictive modelling Collecting, cleaning, storing data,summarizing data and extracting some meaning Opinion Mining Argument mapping software, automated content analysis, voting Advise Applications Detection of spam and fake reviews, limits of collaborative filtering Improving the accuracy of algorithm for opinion detection, reduction of human effort Usable, peer-to- peer opinion mining tools for citizens
  16. 16. ROADMAP OVERVIEW (2) Name State of the Art Gaps Short Term Research Long Term Research Visual Analytics Demographics visualisationslegal Arguments visualisation,discussion arguments visualisation Usability:availability of low cost, ready to use andreconfigurable infovis systems Impact evaluation of visual analytics on policy choices, simultaneous multiple visualisation Intuitive affordable visual analytics interface for citizens Serious Gaming Purpose-built gaming and simulation for understanding of policy issues and of individual behaviour Changes in public policy making perception , institutional changes Immersive interfaces, Citizens- and experts- generated gaming Augmented reality citizens-generated gaming and simulation,Ubiquitou s feedback systems on public governance Linked Open Government Data Used toIncrease the awareness of citizens on specific issues, and promote accountability of public officials How to reduce human efforts; Identification of good ideas; Finding necessary investments; How to improve usability of tools. Assessing the technical features of a dataset, Assessing the usefulness of a dataset for particular users Integration of open government data (OGD) and social media data (SMD)
  17. 17. POLICY-MAKING 2.0 IS MORE THAN THE SUM OF ITS RESEARCH CHALLENGES Source: IPTS-NTUA Case studies
  18. 18. TAKING A CRITICAL VIEW: CAN TECHNOLOGY CHANGE POLICY-MAKING?  Learning lessons from 20 years of technology adoption in government: bottlenecks are cultural and organisational, not technological  Technology will not suddenly free policy-making from politicking, corruption, personal interests, short term thinking, low interest from citizens…  Main interest of these tools for policy-makers is in providing:  High quantity of participants (X people said this)  Robust-looking evidence to justify choices (complex data said that..)
  19. 19. YET:  Technology is not neutral. Open data, open models, open consultation, simulation of different impacts, uncovering hidden feedback, usable tools and visualisation create incentives and lower barriers to entry  Policy-making 2.0 need also a new cultural approach to implementation: more focus on design; massive skills needed by policy-makers and civil society; learning by doing and barcamps; better understanding of the limits of policy-making  Technology is just one issue!
  20. 20. POLICY TOOLS RELEVANT FOR POLICY CHALLENGES
  21. 21. A REALITY CHECK: POLICY-MAKING 2.0 STILL MORE PROMISING THAN IMPACTFUL  2050 PATHWAYS : high usage (16K pathways created, 200 stakeholders involved in the building phase). Higher awareness by citizens. Output used by govt to back up the Carbon Strategy.  GLEAM: adopted by mainstream gov’t agency to anticipate disease spread through transportation. Adopted also for educational purposes  OPINION SPACE 3.0: significant participation (5K individuals) , endorsement at top level (Secretary of State Clinton)  URBANSIM: High usage by US local gov’t OPEN QUESTIONS:  Do they actually lead to better policies?  Do they predict impact better than other models?  Do they bring new relevant ideas useful for policy-making? Lack of systematic robust evaluation of different policy-methods. Initial evidence points to the potential impact, but very far from counterfactual / RCT approach available to date.
  22. 22. WHAT’S NEXT? 1. Share experiences on the Policy-Making 2.0 group on Linkedin 2. Collaborative curation: 200+ inspiring examples in Diigo Group: http://groups.diigo.com/group/crossoverproject 3. Follow-up with EgovPoliNet - http://www.policy- community.eu/ 4. Meeting in Samos http://samos-summit.blogspot.ie/ At a minimum level, collaboration does not need a dedicated project LET’S START MAKING IT HAPPEN TODAY AND TOMORROW! david.osimo@gmail.com

Notas del editor

  • More dataVisual simulationIterative process with policy-makers

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