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1. REMINDER
Check in on the
COLLABORATE mobile app
An Introduction to
Oracle’s Primavera Risk Analysis
Prepared by:
Paul Monaghan
1st Milestone Ltd
Overview via Slideshow
Product Demonstration
Session ID#: 15487

2. Agenda for the Session
■ Primavera Risk Analysis and Management Overview via
Slideshow
■ Primavera Risk Analysis – Product Demonstration
▪ Schedule checks and schedule improvement
▪ Using basic schedule uncertainty
▪ Running a Monte Carlo risk analysis
▪ Understanding the results
▪ What-if scenarios
▪ Impact of risks from a risk register
▪ Comparing pre and post mitigation scenarios
▪ Combined schedule and cost modelling

3. 1st Milestone Ltd
Oracle Platinum Partner Specializing in Oracle’s Primavera Applications
■ Representing Primavera for 20 years
■ Our Focus:
▪ Application / Business Consulting
▪ Oracle University Primavera Training
▪ Integration Consulting
▪ IT Support and Hosting
■ Our credentials are proof of our commitment to quality, and they help demonstrate
our deep understanding and proactive assessment of Resource, Project, Programme
and Portfolio Management solutions.
▪ Oracle University – Education Partner
▪ PRINCE2 Practitioners
■ Milestone announced the winners of the UKOUG Primavera and Oracle Projects
Partners of the Year:
▪ Gold Award 2011 & 2012!
▪ Silver Award 2010

4. Primavera Risk Analysis
■ Focus
▪ Specialist product for project risk analysis and management
▪ An ‘add-on’ package for Primavera P6PPM and EPPM
■ Pinpoint key facts
▪ Likelihood of delivering the project on time and budget
▪ Most important tasks and risks in the schedule
■ Understand overall cost/schedule risk exposure
▪ The impact of delay
▪ Determine contingency and mitigation
■ Better decision making
▪ Increased accuracy of project schedules
▪ Reduce exposure to risk for more successful project execution

5. Risk Analysis Output
■ Risk Histogram
▪ Displays likelihood of
project delivery
■ Risk Tornado chart
▪ Displays task and risk
drivers

6. Risk Analysis Process
■ Risk ready schedule
▪ Check the schedule for
sound logic and errors
■ Risk inputs
▪ Estimate uncertainty
▪ Risk events/Risk register
■ Risk impact
▪ Map risks to tasks
■ Risk analysis
▪ Monte Carlo simulation
■ Risk response
▪ Determine contingency
▪ Mitigation scenarios
Risk
Management
Process

7. Checking a Schedule

8. Three Point Estimates
Duration/Cost
■ Estimate Uncertainty

9. Three Point Estimates: Input
■ Quickly input 3 point estimates using “Quick Risk”
templates

10. Task Existence and Branching
■ Task Existence
■ Branching: Probabilistic
Outcome C
Outcome A
? Outcome B
?

11. Project Risk Events – Risk Register
■ Estimate Uncertainty + Risk Events = Total Risk Exposure
▪ Uncertainty (3 point estimates)
▪ Risks from a risk register
▪ Monte Carlo simulation

12. Primavera Risk Analysis
Product Demonstration

13. Please complete the session
evaluation
We appreciate your feedback and insight
You may complete the session evaluation either
on paper or online via the mobile app