Lecture @ German Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Jan 16 2013

1. Innovation
Requirements and Opportunities

2. Agenda
•
Innovation in General
– The Fundamental Dilemma
•
Different Aspects of Innovation
– Destruction and Creation
– The Golden Mean
– System Models and System Reality
•
Predicting the Future
– Scenarios
•
Innovation Culture
– Creativity and Resistance
– The Learning Organization and Personal Mastery
•
•
•
Learning
Example
Recommendations
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3. On Innovation: The Hand Axe
Idea: To produce a hand axe and not to
Man-made hand axe found in Turkana,
Kenya, dated to1,76 Mil. Years BCE
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rely on chance in finding one
Invention: To develop the necessary
capabilities and skills (process
innovation)
Diffusion: To copy and export the
„production process“
Innovation: Man-made hand axe
Success Story: Has been the
predominant tool of the Acheuléen
(“hand axe”) culture
Inventor: Homo Erectus
Market: Africa, Europe and Asia
Market Window: Between 1,8 Mil. und 150
Thou. years BCE
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4. On Innovation: The Hand Axe
Idea: To produce a hand axe and not to
rely on chance in finding one
Invention: To develop the necessary
capabilities and skills (process
innovation)
Diffusion: To copy and export the
„production process“
Innovation: Man-made hand axe
Success Story: Has been the
predominant tool of the Acheuléen
(“hand axe”) culture
Inventor: Homo Erectus
Market: Africa, Europe and Asia
Market Window: Between 1,8 Mil. und 150
Thou. years BCE
Innovation = Idea + Invention + Diffusion
Man-made hand axe found in Turkana,
Kenya, dated to1,76 Mil. Years BCE
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5. On Innovation: Timeliness
100
→
45
→
15 - 20 →
Not all ideas become inventions,
Not all inventions become products
Not all products become innovations
45
15 - 20
5–9
Study Innovation Behavior 2012, Dr. Bernd X. Weis
Timeliness
Successful innovations are
in themselves unique,
creative and original, realize
developments not conceived
before.
They are closely interwoven
with the organization and the
people, and properly
positioned in time.
I
I
I
I I
I
I I I
I
I II I I
I
I
I I I
I II I
I I
I
I I
I
I
I II
I
I
I
II
I
Idea
(Generation)
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I
E
P
N
Idea
Invention
Product
Innovation
E
E E
E
E E
P
P
P
Invention
(Development)
Diffusion
(Marketing)
N
Innovation
(Success)
5

6. On Innovation: The Fundamental Dilemma
The particular capabilities of the organization are at the same time
(Christensen)
its special incapabilities.
Inexpensive
Products
Innovative
Products
Maintaining
Competitiveness
Delays
Creative
Processes
Efficient
Processes
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Short Run:
Higher
Profits
Short Run:
Higher
Cost
Innovation
Pressure
Cost
Pressure
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7. On Innovation: Types
Traditional
Markets,
Improved
Products
Sustainable
Innovations
Innovations
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Disruptive
Innovations
New Markets,
New Quality
of Products
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8. On Innovation: Sustainable versus Disruptive Innovations
(Christensen)
Often Incumbent
succeeds
Performance
No Additional
Customer Benefit
Perceived
Differentiating
Customer Benefit
Perceived
Disruptive
Innovation
Often Innovator
succeeds
Minor Customer
Benefit Perceived
Time
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9. On Destruction and Creation
Verbrennen musst du dich wollen in
deiner eignen Flamme: wie wolltest
du neu werden, wenn du nicht erst
Asche geworden bist!
You must be ready to burn yourself
in your own flame; how could you
rise anew if you have not first
become ashes!
Nietzsche: Also sprach Zarathustra
Nietzsche: Thus spoke Zarathustra
Creative Destruction (Joseph Schumpeter)
Perceive the continuous alterations and changes
in the environment as potential
• to disengage from the outdated and adapt to
new developments,
• to develop further, to design and shape, to
create something new.
Innovation implies Change.
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Phoenix (Mosaic, Louvre, Paris)
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10. On the Golden Mean
Virtue, then, is a state of character concerned with choice, lying in a mean,
i.e. the mean relative to us... For in everything it is no easy task to find the
middle… Wherefore goodness is both rare and laudable and noble.
Aristotle: Nicomachean Ethics
The Golden Mean
On no account does the golden mean imply
mediocrity, but rather a prudent and wise
resolution of diametrical, often irreconcilable
options – the “right” mean.
Prudent businessman
A direct corollary is that a failing “innovation” may
shake an organization or enterprise, but should by
no means threaten its very existence.
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Aristotle teaching (British Library)
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11. On Complexity Reduction
Handle stets so, dass die Anzahl der
Möglichkeiten wächst.
Heinz von Foerster: Das Konstruieren einer
Wirklichkeit
Innovation Strategies
When talking about reducing
complexity, complexity of the
model is reduced not the
complexity of system reality.
Thus, complexity reduction is a
cognitive necessity but
remains a chimera.
In consequence, innovation
strategies, which maximize the
number of options, have a
higher potential for success.
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Always act so as to increase the
total number of choices.
Heinz von Foerster: Constructing a Reality
Model
Derive
Real World
Options, possible
Consequences,
Goals, Actions,
Influences
Be aware of
Uncertainty,
Emergence,
The Unknown
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12. On Predictions: Russell’s Chicken
I act with complete certainty. But this
certainty is my own.
Wittgenstein: Über Gewissheit
Wittgenstein: On Certainty
Market Uncertainties
Markets, that are not (yet) existing,
cannot be analysed.
New markets are fundamentally
afflicted with uncertainty and can
therefore not be dealt with in the
conventional processes and
techniques of business planning and
conduct.
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Weight
Ich handle mit voller Gewissheit.
Aber diese Gewissheit ist meine
eigene.
Time
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13. On Predictions
Continue this sequence of numbers:
Rule – Expanatory Framework
0 2 4 6 …
Continuation
The next number is the previous one + 2
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
The next number is even and not in the list
0 2 4 6 256 24 396 10532
The next number is bigger than the
previous one
0 2 4 6 7 99 396 123456
The last 4 numbers are attached in reversed
order
0 2 4 6 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6
4 arbitrary numbers followed by 1‘s
0 2 4 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
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14. On Prediction: Scenarios
I
Current State
P Planning Target
S Scenario
I
P
P
P
P
P
Presence
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Near Future
(Planning Horizon)
S
S S
S
SS
SS
S
S
I
S
S S SS S
S
S
S SS
I S
I
S SI S
SS
I SS S
S I
SS
S
S2
S1
S3
Far Future
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15. On Prediction: Scenarios
I
S
Current State
S
P Planning Target
S Scenario
I
P
P
P
P
P
Unexpected,
Very Unlikely,
Disruptive Event
Presence
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Near Future
(Planning Horizon)
S
S
S S
S
SS
SS
S
S
I
S
S S SS S
S
S
S SS
I S
I
S SI S
SS
I SS S
S I
SS
S
S2
S1
S3
Far Future
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16. On Innovation Culture
Innovation culture has to be conceived a transdisciplinary culture. Its
imperative is to pragmatically integrate anything desirable, necessary, useful,
feasible, and appropriate.
Edge of Exploration, Edge of the Known
The five basic characteristics
• Vision
• Co-operation and Networks
• Inspiration and Leadership
• “FREIRAEUME”(*)
• Creativity and Readiness to take Risks
(*)
The German noun FREIRAEUME refers to what is ordinarily called "free
space," and also what is called "room for ideas", “room for selfactualization” and the likes. FREIRAEUME refers to the kind of
opportunities given, that allow to pursue activities that are not on the
specified agenda e.g. to create and follow up with new ideas.
Elizabeth Eastland, Sidney
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17. On Creativity
Innovation can be conceived anywhere. It is presumptuous to believe that
methods, techniques and processes create innovation. However,
innovativeness benefits from appropriate methods, techniques and
processes.
Study Innovation Behavior 2012, Dr. Bernd X. Weis
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Caspar David Friedrich
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18. On Resistance
And yet it moves.
Eppur‘ si muove.
Galilei
Galilei
Typical Quotes
Difficulty in Managing Change
“It’s never been that way!”
“We’ve never done it that way!”
“We tried this before!”
”This has never worked!”
“This will never work!”
“Nobody would want this!”
“It’s already there!”
…..
• The protagonists have the
structural disadvantage that they
have to explain the vision with all
its deficiencies.
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• The opponents instead have their
vision ready and proven – it is the
simple and obvious projection of
the Now onto the Then.
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19. On Learning Organizations
Der Tag gehört dem Irrtum und dem
Fehler, die Zeitreihe dem Erfolg und
dem Gelingen.
The day belongs to the error and the
failure, the time series to success
and achievement.
Goethe: Maximen und Reflektionen
Goethe: Maxims and Reflections
The Learning Organization
An innovative Organization learns from
• Successes and Failures
• Trial and Error
• from Others and
• with Others through Co-operative Action
Individual Aspects:
Autonomy, Personal Mastery and Meaning
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20. On Personal Mastery
Denn der Zugang ist ... nur denen
vergönnt,
die
‚reinen‘,
um
Nebenabsichten
unbekümmerten
Herzens sind.
But acces is ... only granted to
those, who are with a pure heart,
free from secondary motives.
Herrigel: Zen in der Kunst des
Bogenschiessens
Herrigel: Zen in the Art of Archery
Personal Mastery
• Integration of Rationality and Intuition
• Realization of the Connectedness
with the World
• Empathy and Engagement
Thus, Personal Mastery is the capability
to reflect one‘s own actions and
interactions with honesty and depth –
and act accordingly.
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21. On Learning
Anyone who stops learning is old, whether at twenty or eighty. Anyone who
keeps learning stays young. The greatest thing in life is to keep your mind
young.
Henry Ford
The required structures have to
develop; they cannot be bought,
particularly in research management.
Prof. Dr. Bernd Hoefer in „the gulf | February 2011“
The goal is to inspire and to guide!
“If you want to build a ship, do not
drum up people to collect wood and
assign them tasks and work, but
rather teach them to long for the
endless immensity of the sea”.
Antoine de Saint-Exupery
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Daimler
Benz
Reis
Hertz
Siemens
Zuse
Bosch
Von Braun
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22. On Innovation: Idea, Observation, Question, Requirement
Observations
• In Kuwait the air at sea level is hot.
• Even in Kuwait the air in higher altitudes – say 3 – 5 km – is cold.
Question
• Is it possible to get the hot air up and at the same time get the cold
air down?
Requirements
• The process should be as passive as possible.
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23. On Innovation: Sketch of First Solution: Ideas
wH
pH
wH =
pH
H: Height
p0
√
2[(pH - p0) + ρHgHH + ρ0w2 /2 + cv(ρHTH - ρ0T0)]
0
Venturi-Effect
for Air Speed
p0 w0
Ground
Level
Heat Exchange
p0
pL
ρH
1. Low Pressure Chamber
(LPC) is filled with air at
pressure pL < p0.
2. Lower pressure implies
lower temperature.
3. The air flows should
eventually come into a
steady state.
4. Additionally, air could be
heated at ground level
using sun energy.
5. Additional exploitation of
the air flow should be
taken into account.
Low Pressure Chamber
2/6/2014
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24. On Innovation: Recommendations
•
•
•
•
Create a culture of appreciation.
Create a culture that allows learning from successes AND from failures.
Create an environment that allows processes of trial and error.
Create an environment that has sufficient free space for creative moments.
Inspiration
Passion
Heart and Soul
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25. Study on Innovation Behavior 2012
In English or German:
Can be ordered through my
Website
www.Bernd-Weis.de
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26. The Book
From Idea to Innovation: A Handbook
for Inventors, Decision Makers and
Organizations
270 Pages, Springer: Heidelberg, 2014
ISBN 978-3-642-54170-4
In German:
Praxishandbuch Innovation: Leitfaden
für Erfinder, Entscheider und
Unternehmen (2. Auflage)
296 Seiten, SpringerGabler: Wiesbaden, 2014
ISBN 978-3-8349-4638-6
Can as well be ordered through my Website
www.Bernd-Weis.de
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27. Herzlichen Dank!
Thank you!
‫ﺷﻛﺭﺍ‬
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