A description of trends in clean energy market and how can U.S regain its leadership. In 1995, the US had 43% of the solar manufacturing market compared to China at 1%. Now the US market share has declined to 6%, as compared to China’s 60%. China dominates wind turbines with 40% of the market share with the US at 14%. Fear of nuclear energy is hurting our environment.

1. Climate Change:
Are We Losing the Carbon-Free Energy Market to China?
Paul H. Carr, PhD, IEEE Life Fellow
Web page: www.MirrorOfNature.org

2. Earthrise on the Moon
WHY
CARBON-
FREE
ENERGY?
SAVE OUR
EARTH!
It’s the only
one with
chocolate

3. 1. WHY CARBON-FREE ENERGY?
• NOW emissions from fossil fuel burning are
raising carbon dioxide concentrations 35%
higher than in the last millions of years.
These emissions are warming our planet via
the Greenhouse Effect, increasing weather
extremes, like higher intensity hurricanes.
• LONG TERM we will run out of fossil fuels.
They are a limited resource, decayed vegetation,
multimillions of years old.

4. IEEE LIFE MEMEBERS CLIMATE DISCUSSION, NewTV, August 2014, Video and PowerPoint
available at on my web page www.MirrorOfNature.org
-IEEE Boston Section Introduction: Lennart Long
- Moderator (left) John Horrigan introduces Paul H. Carr (center) and Ted Kochanski (right)
-20 min Paul H. Carr’s PowerPoint Talk: HUMANS INFLUENCE OUR CLIMATE
-20 min Ted Kochanski’s PowerPoint Talk: AGW QUESTIONS TO PONDER
- Lively Discussion

5. This global temperature chart is updated at Columbia University.
Data is based on GISTEMP analysis (mostly NOAA data sources) as described by Hansen et al.
2016 & 2015
Warmest years
On Record
“CO2 warming
should emerge
from the noise of
natural variability
(1981)” Hansen
The mean rate of temperature change for NH, below 1.22 degrees C per century, 1750 - 1910, has
increased to 5.10. (Non-governmental funded http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/locations/42.59N-
72.00W)

6. • FOSSIL FUELS WILL NOT MEET THE ENEGY DEMAND
• NEED NEW WIND, SOLAR, AND NUCLEAR ENERGY

7. 7
NEED CARBON-FREE ENERGY TO STOP
WHAT OUR CLIMATE IS DOING TO US.
“The earth and its poor cry out, and we must listen” Pope Francis
• Rising sea levels from thermal expansion and
melting mountain glaciers, Greenland, & Antarctica.
• Oceans becoming more acidic from CO2 absorption,
threatening the bottom of the food chain.
• Weather extremes are increasing:
-Wet areas are becoming wetter: Floods & Snow.
Atmosphere holds more water vapor at higher temps.
-Dry areas, drier: Expanded Deserts, Droughts & Wildfires.
• Climate Refugees ”CLIMmigration” from droughts.
• Health Hazards
- Tick-born Lyme Disease doubled since 1990 as winters warm.
- Increased heat deaths: 10,000 deaths in Moscow in 2010.
- Germs released as Arctic melts, Anthrax cases reported.

8. 8
Weather Extremes Have More Than
Doubled

10. The Southeastern states (gray), whose economies will suffer the most
from climate change, have no renewable energy standards and goals.

11. 2. CARBON-FREE
TECHNOLOGY
•Solar PV
• Windmills
•Next-Generation
Nuclear Fission
Power Plants
• Battery Powered
Electric Cars

12. Between 2008 and 2013, China's solar-electric panel industry dropped world prices
by 80 percent. By John Fialka, ClimateWire on December 19, 2016

13. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_photovoltaics_companies

15. Reference. A Good Swift Kick
Two reports from Pew seek to prod U.S. policymakers to help the U.S. catch up in the global
clean-energy race, before it’s too late.
https://siteselection.com/theEnergyReport/2013/mar/clean-energy.cfm
China has 4 companies
in the the top 10 wind
turbine manufacturers,
with the US at 1 (GE).
China leads with 27 %
of the market and the
US is 3rd at 9 %.
Denmark is 2nd at 19%

16. Nuclear power paves the ONLY viable path forward on
climate change,
By NASA’s Dr. James Hansen , MIT’s Prof. Kerry Emanuel, and two other
top climate scientists, (Op-Ed Guardian, 3 Dec 2015)
They stated, “Modern nuclear technology can reduce
proliferation risks and solve the waste disposal problem by
burning current waste and using fuel more efficiently.
Innovation and economies of scale can make new power
plants even cheaper than existing plants.”
Engineers at MIT are designing a nuclear plant that
could be moored at sea, like an oil rig. It would cost about
one-third less than a conventional plant and take about half
the time to build. Floating reactors wouldn’t be in anyone’s
backyard (NIMBY).

17. Fissionable
Uranium and
Thorium, the
size of a
marble,
can provide
the energy
needs for a
lifetime, saving
or planet

18. How fear of nuclear power is hurting
the environment | YouTube 2016 TED Talk by Michael
Shellenberger
BACKGROUND:
• SOLAR ENERGY IS NUCLEAR.
The energy that enables life on earth comes from the nuclear
fusion of hydrogen into helium in our sun.
• Solar energy is available 26% of the time,
wind 33% of the time,
and nuclear 24/7

19. GLOBALLY: The 7%
decrease in Nuclear
generated electricity
is greater than the
+3.8% increase in
Solar & Wind.
To make up for the
difference, we are burning
more fossil fuels, which
increase our carbon
dioxide emissions .
This is particularly true in
Germany. Electricity cost is
twice that in the US.

20. Germany Runs Up Against the Limits of Renewables
by Richard Martin. May 24, 2016 MIT Technology Review
Even as Germany adds lots of wind and solar power to the
electric grid, the country’s carbon emissions are rising. Will
the rest of the world learn from its lesson?
At one point this month renewable energy sources briefly
supplied close to 90 percent of the power on Germany’s
electric grid.
At night when the wind is not blowing, they are burning
more dirty coal to generate electricity because they are
phasing out their nuclear power plants.

21. Bill Gates is funding a solution to the nuclear
waste problem. http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-talks-
private-nuclear-fission-plant-terrapower-2016-4
Gates said that TerraPower's nuclear pilot
plant will be built with the China National
Nuclear Corp. The economics, safety, waste,
and all the key parameters are dramatically
improved.
The traveling wave reactor converts
depleted uranium, a byproduct of the
nuclear-fission process, into usable fuel.

22. Westinghouse’s reactors being built in S. Carolina and Georgia have gone bankrupt.

24. 24
India, with a billion people similar to China, is a Wild Card
that could equal China’s emissions.

25. Energy Returned on Invested (EROI), Nuclear Largest.( from Weißbach et al.,1) with
and without energy storage (buffering). CCGT is closed-cycle gas turbine. PWR is a
Pressurized Water (conventional nuclear)
Reactor. https://bravenewclimate.com/2014/08/22/catch-22-of-energy-storage/
For storage

26. Source Total Investment:
60 Year Project
Annual Before-Tax
Revenue
Market Price to
Break Even at 15
Years
Life Span
before
Retooling
Comparative
ROI at 60 Years
($0.145/KWhr)
Nuclear $17.0 Billion $1.244 Billion $0.12/KWhr 60 years $74.7 Billion
Land-based wind
+ batteries
$44.6 Billion $0.873 Billion $$0.11/KWhr 25 years $52.4 Billion
Solar + Batteries $55.8 Billion $0.208 Billion $0.15/KWhr 25 years $12.5 Billion
• Wind is available about 36% of the time and solar about 26%. Renewables need
to charge batteries to supply electricity 24/7.
• Kaui (Hawaii) is planning to use Tesla grid-level storage batteries and has a contract
for $0.145/KWhr for 20 years. This is a small installation, but it can be used as a
comparison. Telsa also offers grid level batteries for sale at $2.5 million/MW.
Over 60 years, the standard license period for nuclear reactors,
nuclear provides the largest return on investment (ROI) (Emery et al)

27. NuclearElectricity2100

28. PROBLEM: IN the US by
2040,
NATURAL GAS & COAL
WILL BE THE LARGEST
SOURCES OF ELECTRICITY.
SOLUTION:
NEXT GENERATION
NUCLEAR REACTORS
HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO INCREASE
AND THEREBY REDUCE
CARBON EMISSIONS 24/7
Figure from “Coal’s Last Kick” TIME, April 17, 2017
Not 24/7

29. 29
Alvin Weinberg demonstrated a
Thorium molten-salt nuclear
reactor at Oak Ridge in 1965- 1969.
Its fission byproducts had no
weapons value during the Cold
War’s nuclear arms race and zero
chance of a meltdown.
Thorium reactors lost to Navy
Admiral Rickover’s Uranium water-
cooled for nuclear submarines and
aircraft carriers. Present uranium
civilian reactors, which
generate 20% of our electricity
without carbon emissions, are a
spinoff from Rickover’s navy
technology.

30. Pressurized water raises
the boiling temperature of
nuclear reactors in use
today.
& Thorium
• Molten salt reactors
operate in the atmosphere.
• No expensive containment
structures
• Shut down automatically.

31. The spent fuel from Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors (LFTR) is significantly less of a
storage problem than from present uranium reactors.

32. Safer Nuclear Power, at Half the Price
by Kevin Bullis. March 12, 2013 Technology Review
Transatomic Power, a MIT spinoff, is developing a new
kind of molten-salt reactor designed to overcome the
major barriers to nuclear power.
The company’s biggest challenge might come from China,
which is investing $350 million over five years to develop
molten-salt reactors of its own. It plans to build a two-
megawatt test reactor by 2020.
India’s nuclear scientists expect to complete an
experimental fast breeder nuclear reactor in Kalpakkam by
the end of 2017.
It will generate 500 megawatts of electricity by using the
element thorium instead of uranium, which is rare in India.

33. Trump Could Fuel A Nuclear Energy Boom In 2017
James Stafford - Dec 06, 2016
http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/Trump-Could-Fuel-A-Nuclear-Energy-Boom-In-2017.html
The president promised to “revive and expand our nuclear energy sector.”
When I asked MIT Prof of
Nuclear Science &
Engineering,
Ian Hutchison about this he
replied, “The Republicans
are less scared of nuclear
energy than the
Democrats.”
https://clearpath.org
“Conservative Clean Energy”
advocates nuclear.

34. CLEARPATH.ORG News Item.
Administration’s Nuclear Review Vital to
Pulling Industry Out of Crisis
WASHINGTON, June 29, 2017 –
The Trump administration’s upcoming
comprehensive study of the promises and
challenges of the U.S. nuclear sector may be
the catalyst for a wholesale effort to
stabilize and modernize the country’s most
reliable form of emission-free electricity.

35. 'Miniature', Modular Nuclear Power Plants Could Be Rolled Out in The US by 2026
They can fit on the back of a truck. JOSH HRALA 20 JAN 2017
Working with the US Department of Energy (DOE), NuScale Power the company already has
plans to showcase their new reactor. They've just announced plans to build a 12-module plant
in Idaho, where they'll work with power companies to test their SMR. The technology will be
available by 2026.
The 50 MegaWatt design we will hopefully be approved by the Nuclear Regulatory
Commission and mass produced to reduce cost by 2026.
https://www.sciencealert.com/miniature-modular-nuclear-power-plants-are-being-
implemented-in-the-us

36. http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/3/27/15043522/nuclear-power-
future-innovation
LOWER COST

37. The Other Gigafactory: Rongke Power’s
battery factory, in Dalian, China, is set to
produce 3 gigawatts’ worth of vanadium
redox-flow batteries annually by 2020.
https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/fuel-cells/its-
big-and-longlived-and-it-wont-catch-fire-the-
vanadium-redoxflow-battery. Nov 2017
Vanadium flow batteries finally
become competitive for grid-scale
energy storage.
Vanadium redox-flow batteries started
out as a modest research project at
the Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory(PNNL), a U.S. Department of
Energy lab in Washington state.
China has the largest and highest-grade vanadium resources in the
world. Other sources are Russia and South Africa.

38. 38
Will a New Glass Battery Accelerate the End of Oil?
IEEE SPECTRUM 3 March 2017
John Goodenough, 94 co-inventor (1980) of the lithium-
ion battery, heads a team of researchers developing the
technology that could one day supplant it.
The lithium- or sodium-
glass battery has three
times the energy storage
capacity of a comparable
lithium-ion battery.
“”The next step is to
verify that the cathode
problem is solved,”
Goodenough says. “And
when we do [that] we
can scale up to large-
scale cells.
Yet, the world has seen
alleged game-changing
battery breakthroughs
come to naught before.

39. John Goodenough is a MIT Lincoln Lab Alumnus
Magnetic Transitions in Ti2O3 and V2O3
Journal of Applied Physics 31, S344 (1960);
P. H. Carr and S. Foner
Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Lexington, Massachusetts
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We have profited form informative discussions with
J. B. Goodenough
E. B. Warekois

40. 40
Why are per person carbon emissions in the US twice those of Europe?
$0.30. Gasoline $1.00
Gasoline 2X price in US
Natural gas
cheaper than
coal.

41. 10/9/15
www.
CitizensClimateLobby.org
- Revenue neutral
carbon fee with
dividend. (RNCFD)
-Dividend would be
returned to
everyone.
$2000 / family.
-Stimulating economy
& creating 2 million
jobs.
- Stimulate Green
Energy Innovation.
True social cost of burning fossil fuels.
Harness Greed towards Green

42. 42
REDUCING CO2 EMISSIONS HAS NOT WRECKED OUR ECONOMY.
Contrary to denier’s claims, reducing CO2 emissions in 1980 & 2010 did not decrease our
GDP (Gross Domestic Product)

43. 43
3. Reduced Food Waste
(70.53)
4. Plant-Rich Diet (66.11)
POPULATION REDUCTION:
6. Educating Girls (59.60)
7. Family Planning (59.60)

44. 44
Peter Kalmus, PhD,
atmospheric
scientist at Caltech,
lives with his wife
and 2 children on
1/10th the fossil
fuels of the average
American.

45. 2012 Chevy Volt Plug-In Hybrid:
90 miles/gal running quietly on 40 mile battery
40 miles/gal highway with gasoline generator
350 mile range.

46. 2016 NISSAN
LEAF®
As low as:
$27,700*Net value after
federal tax credit
106City MPGal
107 mi range.
My friend bought a 3-year-old-leased Leaf
for $10,000.
Mitusbishi i
ELECTRIC CARS

47. ALL ELECTRIC 2017 CHEVY BOLT EV
• 238 mile range after charging.
• 120 mpg equivalent
• Acceleration 0 to 60 mpg in 6.3 second, about ½ that of
Tesla Model S, but the Bolt’s cost is ½,
about $33,000 with the Federal rebate.
The batteries, motor, and one-speed transmission are made in
South Korea. The Bolt is assembled in Michigan.

48. China is preparing to put the brakes on gasoline and diesel
cars.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/news/china-gas-electric-car-ban/index.html
The country, home to the world's largest auto market, is working on a plan to ban the
production and sale of vehicles powered solely by fossil fuels, officials say.
The Chinese government is following in the footsteps of countries
like India, France, Britain and Norway, which have already announced plans to ditch
gas and diesel cars in favor of cleaner vehicles in the coming years.
Ford wants to crack the world's largest auto market with fully electric vehicles sold under a
new brand. The company announced plans to form a new joint venture with Anhui Zotye
Automobile Co., a Chinese brand that specializes in all-electric vehicles.
VOLVO will make only electric and hybrid autos.
The present Republican tax bill would remove the $7500 income tax rebate for electric cars.

49. Climate Change:
Are We Losing the Carbon-Free Energy Market to China?
YES! China has the largest solar PV market share, dominates wind energy, is
building the most next-generation nuclear reactors, and has the world’s largest
giga-factory for utility scale storage batteries.
The US hosts Tesla’s and Panasonic’s giga-factory for Li-batteries for electric cars.
Tesla’s founder and CEO, Elon Musk, a South African immigrant, was attracted
to Silicon Valley from Canada. Will the US continue to attract technical leaders and
innovators from abroad?
In the US, 'Miniature', Modular Nuclear Power Plants Could Be Rolled Out by
2026. They can fit on the back of a truck.
• George Schultz’s revenue carbon-fee plus dividend could advance carbon-free
technology innovation and stimulate our economy.
https://citizensclimatelobby.org/
• Let’s advocate the Citizens Climate Lobby’s carbon-fee plus dividend, eat more
plant rich food, and choose less carbon-emitting modes of transportation.