Analysis and Commentary - Geopolitical Risks and Threats - January 8, 2023.pptx

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS AND THREATS – ANALYSIS
AND COMMENTARY
Paul Young CPA CGA
January 8, 2023

PAUL YOUNG - BIO
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos
CPA, CGA (1996)
Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
SME – Customer Success Management
SME – Risk Management
SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
SME – Public Policy
SME – Emerging Technology
SME – Business Process Change
SME – Financial Solutions
SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
SME – Supply Chain Management
SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
SME – Internal Controls and Auditing

AGENDA
• Inflation
• Stock Market
• Wealth
• Cases
• Deaths
• Vaccinations by country
• Vaccinations / Delivery
• Vaccines / Approval
• Vaccinations / Procurement
• Employment – January 2021 (USA vs Canada)
• Unemployment (Canada vs OECD and G7)
• Stock Market
• Global GDP / Forecast
• Blog – Crisis Management
• Blog – New Normal
• Blog – Supply Chain
• Summary
• Training/Development

TOP GEOPOLITICAL THREATS
Source - https://www.ey.com/en_jo/geostrategy/when-political-disruption-surrounds-you-whats-your-next-strategic-
move
1. A two-tiered world
2. Evolving great power relationships
3. Middle powers on the global stage
4. Rise of cyber piracy
5. Climate change political nexus
6. Green mineral nationalism
7. Increase intervention supply chain
8. Technology nationalization
9. Expansion of the Brussels effect
10. Inequality and push for redistribution

SUMMARY
PRESENTATION TITLE 5
Summary
• Concerns over housing debt and affordable housing are driving down markets
• Access to critical metals has become a growing concerns for countries trying to shift to cleaner economic policies
• Lack of focus on systemic issues with inflation
• Supply chain disruptions continue to plague global supply chains
• High inflation is challenge for global central banks
• Threat of recession continues to rise each week
• Bear market could lead to issues with pension solvency
Blog – Stock Market for the WE January 7, 2023
Commodities continue to face up and down pressures - https://biztimes.biz/weekly-commodity-wrap-
up-87/
Lithium continues to face price and supply issues - https://www.npr.org/2023/01/06/1147452848/the-
fate-of-americas-largest-lithium-mine-is-in-a-federal-judges-hands or
https://spectrum.ieee.org/lithiumion-battery-recycling-finally-takes-off-in-north-america-and-europe
Global real estate continues to face many challenges - https://spectrum.ieee.org/lithiumion-battery-
recycling-finally-takes-off-in-north-america-and-europe
Global GDP continues to tinker on brink of recession - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-states-gdp-
compared-countries-165545922.html
ESG regulations continue to move forward - https://www.perillon.com/blog/esg-statistics
Market
the united states
stock market closing indices - Google Search.pdf
WestpacWeekly.pdf Stock market news
live updates Stocks end first week of 2023 higher after jobs report spurs big rally.pdf

BMO – CONSUMER PRICE INDEX BMO - Inflation - CPI
- Canada - July 2022.pdf
Canadian CPI (Aug.)
— Another Step Down a Long Road.pdf
U.S. CPI Stubbornly
Sticky.pdf
Cdn CPI — Not
Running Up That Hill, But Still On It.pdf

WEALTH global-wealth-report-
2015.pdf
At $514 trillion, China
overtakes US in terms of amassing the biggest net worth, World News wionews.com.pdf
The rapid growth in
global wealth McKinsey.pdf

LATEST FORECAST
PRESENTATI, ON TITLE 13

COVID
Source -
https://graphics.reuters.co
m/world-coronavirus-
tracker-and-
maps/countries-and-
territories/canada/
https://www.nytimes.com/in
teractive/2021/world/covid-
cases.html

VACCINES
APPROVAL
Source -
https://www.nytimes.com/inter
active/2020/science/coronaviru
s-vaccine-tracker.html

PROCUREMENT
/
VACCINATIONS
Source -
https://launchandscalefaster.or
g/COVID-19

VACCINATION
DOSAGE
Source -
https://www.economist.co
m/graphic-
detail/tracking-
coronavirus-across-the-
world

• Source – USA government
USA RETAIL SALES BY KEY SEGMENT

USA VS CANADA – RETAIL SALES
BMO -
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/e98
57d59-9185-4881-bfd4-a205d63c64cf/
U.S. Retail Sales No
Gas.pdf
A Summertime
Slump in Sales.pdf
BMO -
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/
detail/5d441999-89ef-4350-9554-
8300c835fb48/
A Real Bump in
Volumes.pdf

BLOG – CRISIS MANAGEMENT
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/crisis-and-emergency-
management-how-best-to-manage-risk
All Levels of government need to have audited emergency management plans for all their
departments, GBEs, and agencies

AUDIT REPORT / CANADA PANDEMIC
Crisis Management
Auditor/Report
Despite nearly two decades of warnings, planning and government spending, the
Public Health Agency of Canada was not ready for the global pandemic and did not
appreciate the threat it posed in its early stages, Canada's auditor general says.
In a hard-hitting review released today, Auditor General Karen Hogan took the
country's primary pandemic response agency to task for failures in early warning,
surveillance, risk assessments, data-sharing with the provinces and follow-up on
Canadian travelers who were ordered into quarantine.
"The agency was not adequately prepared to respond to the pandemic, and it
underestimated the potential impact of the virus at the onset of the pandemic," said
the AG's review — one of three that looked at the Liberal government's management
of the COVID-19 crisis, which as of Thursday had killed 22,780 Canadians and
brought the country's economy to its knees.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/auditor-general-pandemic-covid-phac-1.5963895
Here is my work on crisis management -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/why-there-needs-to-be-audited-reports-of-
crisis-emergency-management-policies-and-procedures

NEW NORMAL
Here are many links on great work by Mckinsey Group - https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/coronavirus-
leading-through-the-crisis?cid=other-eml-nsl-mip-
mck&hlkid=e220291424cb421991e4e6a3b37ecb2d&hctky=11493232&hdpid=b812b692-ed48-496d-a1e4-
9eb133561e6b#
I can add a bit more color in terms of what needs to transpire:
1. Careers in demand are those that are in areas like skills trades or healthcare or Information technology.
2. World continues to grow public sector employment at higher rate than the goods-producing sector.
3. Targeting policies that will support the reshoring of key parts of the supply chain.
4. Better balance between regulations when it comes to supporting getting goods to market.
5. More targeted focus of customers on areas like customer success to better help drive transformation of both the
public and private sectors.
6. Information technology will play a key role in terms of transforming the economy.
7. Fixing issues with global trade including the elimination of protectionism policies.
8. Reforming taxation including transforming tax acts as well as closing-down tax havens.
9. Reforming the housing market to ensure it is more affordable.
10. Reforming the size of government as part of moving to a digital model
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/new-normal-canada-and-the-world-february-2021-242414576

SUPPLY CHAIN
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-s-trade-unexpectedly-surges-despite-virus-outbreaks-
1.1648671?taid=61373efe2b6d260001ced600&utm_campaign=trueAnthem+Manual&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_sour
ce=twitter
There are enormous issues with ports, rails, and other parts of the infrastructure's ability to move goods to the end consumer.
https://ibm.box.com/s/bqy9mr0ktlgi64sbf49o4rg5d9w0rqkn
Blog – How to build a resilient Supply Chain using Data and AI
https://ibm.box.com/s/bqy9mr0ktlgi64sbf49o4rg5d9w0rqkn

SUPPLY CHAIN
Blog – Ecommerce and Retail – Container Shortage and Risks to Supply Chain
Ship-building companies continue to work on building ever larger container vessels, and there’s little
evidence this trend will stop anytime soon.
Today, an estimated 90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea, with 60% of that – including virtually
all your imported fruits, gadgets and appliances – packed in large steel containers. The rest is mainly
commodities like oil or grains that are poured directly into the hull. In total, about US$14 trillion of the
world’s goods spend some time inside a big metal box.
In short, without the standardized container, the global supply chain that society depends upon – and that I
study – would not exist.
A recent shortage of these containers is raising costs and snarling supply chains of thousands of products
across the world. The situation highlights the importance of the simple yet essential cargo containers that,
from a distance, resemble Lego blocks floating on the sea.
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/features/global-shortage-of-shipping-containers-highlights-their-importance-
in-getting-goods-to-amazon-warehouses-store-shelves-and-your-door-in-time-for-christmas/ or
https://www.slideshare.net/secret/4vX74AAoi3O2vC

RISK MANAGEMENT
Blog – Managing Data as part of Mitigating Geopolitical Risks –
Private and Public Sector
• This ties nicely into my many blogs around how best to
managed data as it relates to geopolitical events:
• Audit and Risk Analytics
https://ibm.ent.box.com/folder/116292560123
• Crisis and Emergency Management -
https://ibm.box.com/s/rsp6p9tez8uru9fo0wu5d13bxt7rtrr0

OTHER
GEOPOLITICAL
RISKS
Source -
https://www.cbsnews.com
/news/russia-weapons-
mass-disruption-top-
geopolitical-risks-2023/

IMPROVING IMMUNE SYSTEMS
• Improving the immune system - https://www.houstonmethodist.org/blog/articles/2020/mar/5-ways-to-boost-
your-immune-system/
• Food and immune system - https://www.healthline.com/health/food-nutrition/foods-that-boost-the-immune-
system
• Startups - https://www.medicalstartups.org/top/immunotherapy/
• Gene and cell therapy = https://www.drugtargetreview.com/article/100201/highlights-from-drug-target-
reviews-cell-gene-therapy-advancements-online-summit/

BOOSTER SHOTS
Source - https://fortune.com/2022/01/19/covid-19-
boosters-block-immunity-omicron-study-finds/
COVID boosters do
not provide protection against Omicron, study finds Fortune - Heatlhcare.pdf

FOOD COSTS
1. Trucker shortage
2. Factor labor shortage
3. Rising warehouse costs
4. Food scarcity
5. Supply chain delays
https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/5-reasons-why-groceries-are-so-expensive-right-now/?ecms_id=6176bbf5-ba66-
4d82-89f1-df3e9ceb9969&ecms_short=ART6517&doc_type=ted_article&sponsored=&acct=&parent_id=d2286731-
fef9-4f48-8a45-
df0f64c043f9&utm_content=featuredstory&position=2&linktype=title&channel=email&campaign_type=thomas_ind
ustry_update&campaign_name=tiu220204&utm_campaign=tiu220204&utm_medium=email&utm_source=thomas_i
ndustry_update&tinid=221763045
Here is my work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/logistics-warehousing-distribution-and-transportation-
sector-september-2022pptx

HEALTHCARE REFORM
• Moving to private / public healthcare model as part of reducing wait times
• Revising insurance payout including single pay system (This will require alignment with various systems through a
better automation model)
• Building up critical medical supplies including annual audits of supplies
• Mandatory risk and crisis management for all hospitals, medical centers, and long-term care facilities
• Expanding spots at long-term care facilities including more oversight
• Addressing issues with drug costs
• Fixing the delivery model for healthcare including more digitalization, elimination of layers of management, etc.
• Putting the focus on patient care
• Adopting more automation through use of technology
• Increasing seats at medical and nursing schools
• Addressing issues with foreign credentials
• Mandatory reporting by hospitals, medical centers, and long-term care facilities into the government. Audit
Analytics and Ministry of health can then set up triggers as part managing the data including outcomes.
• Here is my work on healthcare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-healthcare-crisis-pptx

SUMMARY
Healthcare models
around the world
continue to face
pressure to delivery
healthcare to
patient
More focus needs to
be on all levels of
government have
audited emergency
and risk
management plans
More needs to be
done to mitigate the
future impact of
pandemics through
healthier living,
vaccines, gene and
immune therapy
All levels of
government need to
do a better job on
safeguarding their
assets
Blog – Geopolitical Risks and Events for the WE January 8, 2022
Technology will continue to drive business outcomes - https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/features/top-
technology-investment-trends-to-watch-in-2023/ or https://hbr.org/2023/01/where-is-tech-going-in-
2023 or https://www.analyticsinsight.net/top-5-craziest-technology-trends-in-2023/
Food prices and supply continue to plague the world. Farmers continue to look at ways to improve
product yields - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/vertical-farming-food-security-farmia-
1.6699741 or https://www.agriinvestor.com/how-can-global-food-security-be-strengthened/
Global inflation continues to plague the world. Achieving the 2% target for inflation is becoming
increasing challenging for global governments - https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dr-
doom-nouriel-roubini-inflation-debt-crisis-crash-economic-outlook-2023-1
Global GDP continues to face many pressures including reduction in demand, cost of raw materials,
productivity, innovation, etc. - https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-
analysis/global-business-activity-contracts-for-fifth-successive-month-as-demand-downturn-
accelerates-Jan23.html
ESG regulations and reporting will continue to dominate both public and private sectors reporting -
https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/esg-insights-10-things-that-should-be-9155492/
Data and AI will continue to drive business outcomes -
https://ibm.box.com/s/b8vd0g35vktvox9nn0p857ds8m0yxjvq
11 Tech Trends To
Watch In 2023 CB Insights.pdf
Top technology
investment trends to watch in 2023 - Investment Monitor.pdf
Where Is Tech Going
in 2023 .pdf
Top 5 craziest
technology trends in 2023.pdf
With no soil or
growing seasons, this Ontario startup is working to feed a hotter world CBC News.pdf
How can global food
security be strengthened .pdf
'Dr. Doom' Nouriel
Roubini Says We'll Have Inflation for a Long Time.pdf
infltrglb_bb.pdf Global business
activity contracts for fifth successive month as demand downturn accelerates S&P Global.pdf
ESG Insights 10
Things That Should Be Top of Mind in 2023 Latham & Watkins LLP - JDSupra.pdf

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