This presentation will discuss Canada Labour Market Trends for July 2016. The presentation will look at wages, job openings, job creation, job losses and key government policies, Caution: The presentation also provides details by month. It is important to look at the overall trends and not just one month. Summary Employment by Sector Job Creation Target for 2016 BM Analysis/Comments Employment BMO/Urbanized areas employment Key Quotes/Bloomberg Labour Rates

1. Employment – Statistics –
Canada – July 2016
By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA
August 7, 2016

2. Disclaimer
• This presentation is on view of the employment market for Canada

3. Paul Young - Presenter
Bio
• CPA/CGA
• 25 years of experience in Academia, Industry and Financial solutions
• Youtube Channel -
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAArky1bAXPSuV2NLtUnyLg

4. Agenda
• Summary
• Employment by Sector
• Job Creation Target for 2016
• BM Analysis/Comments Employment
• BMO/Urbanized areas employment
• Key Quotes/Bloomberg
• Labour Rates

5. Summary
• After three months of little change, employment declined by 31,000 (-0.2%) in July. The
unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage point to 6.9%.
• Full-time employment fell by 71,000 from June to July, while part-time work was up by
40,000.
• Compared with 12 months earlier, total employment increased by 71,000 or 0.4%, with all
of the growth in part-time work. Over the same period, the total number of hours worked
rose by 0.4%.
• In July, employment decreased among youths aged 15 to 24, while it was little changed for
the other demographic groups.
• Employment declined in Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador, and increased in British
Columbia and New Brunswick.
• Fewer people were employed in public administration in July, while employment in health
care and social assistance increased.
• The number of public sector employees fell in July, and there was little change in the
number of private sector employees and self-employed workers.

6. Summary / July

7. Job Creation/year
• The most confusing aspect was a -42k drop in
public sector employment while private sector
employment increased by 13.6k on net, even if
this may have been at least to some good extent a
part-time jobs increase. This doesn’t seem to have
been simply a function of volatility surrounding the
collection of census data and hiring of census
employees as the declines in public sector
employment were across a variety of sectors of
public sector employment (public administration, -
24k; total public sector job declines, -42k).
• The sectors with the biggest losses were public
administration (-24k), information, culture and
recreation (-8.8k), educational services (-6.8k),
trade (-13.5k), and construction (-9k).
• The biggest gains were in health care (+28.3k) and
transportation and warehousing (+6.7k).
Source: ScotiaBank Economics

8. Employment / Summary – BMO comments• By sector: The biggest mover in the month was a 24,200 drop in public
administration, which neatly reverses a 25k buildup in April and May,
when the census hiring was in full bloom. Aside from that, employment
only slipped moderately, with a 13,500 drop in retail & wholesale trade,
and a 9,000 loss in construction jobs the major source of weakness. The
big gains were in health care & social assistance (+28k), and
manufacturing was a rare bright spot (+5,600), although factory jobs are
still down 1.1% y/y. However, the reality is that more sectors lost jobs
than added them last month (10 to 6). By region:
• The driving regional story for more than a year has been the outsized
strength in B.C. and the pronounced weakness in Alberta, and the latest
job numbers simply reinforced that trend. B.C. led by far with a job gain
of 12,100, bringing employment up a whopping 3.7% above year-ago
levels. That is very strong by any metric, and it cut the jobless rate 3
ticks to a Canada-low of 5.6%. On the flip side, Alberta lost 1,400 jobs
and is now down 2.1% y/y, while its jobless rate jumped 7 ticks to 8.6%,
the fourth highest in the country. But the big mover last month was
Ontario, which shed 36,100 jobs. The quirk here was the loss was all in
education (- 37,800), which sounds like yet another seasonal adjustment
issue, as the jobless rate was flat at 6.4% --- look for a rebound in
coming months. Overall, only three provinces posted job gains, yet
another sign that underlying growth is struggling.

9. Top 19 Labour Markets – Canada
• City-level performance rankings continue to highlight
the regional rotation. Toronto and cities surrounding the
GTA still litter the top quartile—see Oshawa and K-W.
Job growth in Toronto itself continues to run at a strong
2.1% y/y clip.
• It’s safe to say that Vancouver is the strongest labour
market in the country, with employment surging 6.3%
y/y and the jobless rate hitting a 7½-year low. At 5.4%,
the jobless rate is now the lowest among metro areas
outside Quebec City, mighty Peterborough and Victoria.
• Among cities moving down the ranking are Calgary,
Saskatoon, Regina and others tied into the energy sector,
such as Kelowna— nothing new here.
Source: BMO Economics

10. Key Quotes – Labor Market
• Canada served up two unsavoury batches of economic numbers Friday as the
latest trade and jobs figures provided further evidence of the country's
struggles. On employment, Statistics Canada's labour force survey said the
market lost 31,200 net jobs in July, an unexpectedly steep decline that included
the biggest one-month drop in full-time work in nearly five years. On trade, the
fresh figures showed Canada's deficit with the world — the balance between
imports and exports — ballooned to a record level of $3.6 billion in June. "The
overall story here is the Canadian economy is barely growing," BMO chief
economist Doug Porter said Friday."And the drag on the economy is in the
export sector, the one area of the economy where I think there were very high
hopes. We're basically still incredibly dependent on consumer spending and
housing to keep pulling the economy along.“ Source -
http://thechronicleherald.ca/canada/1385647-canada-loses-most-full-time-
jobs-in-nearly-five-years-sees-record-trade-deficit

11. Job Vacancies
• From the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2016, the job vacancy
rate declined in nine provinces and two territories, with the largest
decreases occurring in Alberta and Saskatchewan. At the same time, the
job vacancy rate increased in Nunavut, and was little changed in New
Brunswick.
• The job vacancy rate refers to the share of jobs that are unfilled out of all
payroll jobs available. It represents the number of job vacancies expressed
as a percentage of labour demand, that is, the sum of all occupied and
vacant jobs.
• Since 2015, payroll employment has declined in Alberta. The number of
job vacancies also decreased in the province, down by 35,000 (-47.9%)
from the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2016. Over the same
period, the job vacancy rate fell from 3.5% to 1.9%.
• The job vacancy rate in Saskatchewan was 2.0% in the first quarter, down
from 3.0% in the same quarter a year earlier. At the same time, the
number of job vacancies in the province declined by 4,900 (-34.7%).The
number of job vacancies fell in 7 of the 10 broad occupational groups
compared with the first quarter of 2015. The largest decrease was in sales
and service occupations, down 35,000 (-23.6%). Despite this decline, this
group reported the highest number of job vacancies in the first quarter of
2016.
• Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations
recorded the second largest decline in the first quarter, down 22,000 (-
34.6%) compared with the first quarter of 2015. Over the same period, the
number of job vacancies was little changed in health occupations;
management occupations; and business, finance and administration
occupations.

12. Labour Rates / 1Q16