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ROUNDTABLE




     Solar/PV
     roundtable
     The most talked-about feature in PES
     returns, with a fresh selection of questions
     for the industry’s most incisive and intelligent
     commentators. Their approaches may differ,
     but rest assured that you’re getting the very
     best analysis that the industry can provide.




12   PES: Europe
ROUNDTABLE




Contributors




 BETTINA WEISS              PAUL BRODY              ISABEL BOIRA-             BRUCE CROSS             JOHN MEADOWS             ANDREAS WEISHEIT
 Executive Director, PV     Global Electronics      SEGARRA                   Managing Director,      Managing Director,       Global Flat Panel
 Group, SEMI                Industry Leader, IBM    Sector Leader for         GB-Sol                  SCHOTT Solar UK          Display/Solar and Asia
                            Global Business         Renewables, Europe,                                                        Market Development,
                            Services                EC Harris                                                                  Linde Electronics




PES: Do you think we will see a time
when energy produced by solar/PV
                                                   is consumed at the point of demand and
                                                   is integrated within the fabric of the built
                                                                                                     “Within Europe, it is
becomes a major export for Europe’s
sun-blessed countries?
                                                   environment. In Europe’s sunniest countries
                                                   where there is also enough land to install
                                                                                                     possible to export ‘know-
Paul Brody: Yes, I believe that will be
                                                   ground-mounted farms, it can be deployed          how’, and markets like
                                                   at a significantly larger scale, making
possible. Cross-border power generation
and sales are already standard practices
                                                   exports more feasible.                            Spain and Germany
in the utility industry and solar are likely       Places like North Africa have the greatest        are already exporting
to be no exception. There is certain to be         potential for exporting solar energy as
challenges unique to solar including the fact      solar irradiation is high, land is more readily   knowledge on how to
                                                   available and local demand is lower. Within
that output cannot be guaranteed.
                                                   Europe, it is possible to export ‘know-how’       develop and implement
Additionally, Feed-in Tariffs which have
often been very generous to consumers
                                                   and markets like Spain and Germany are
                                                   already exporting knowledge on how to             solar projects”
are usually backed with state guarantees           develop and implement solar projects. This
or direct or indirect subsidies. That will not     is likely to continue further in the coming                               Isabel Boira-Segarra
easily be applied to cross border outputs.         years bringing associated economic benefits
                                                   to those economies.                               Solar power plants can work more efficiently
Given the fact that solar energy as of today                                                         in regions with greater sunlight. So it would
represents a relatively small share, the           John Meadows: The grid is actually the            be more economical to use part of the
priority will likely be consumption within         bottleneck. Spain for example, with its huge      subsidies from central European countries to
the home country first and export only             potential for solar energy, is essentially an     build solar power plants in Southern Europe.
once a threshold of solar in the mix has           island when it comes to energy with hardly        This can contribute to the target to increase
been reached. Initiatives like Desertec, for       any connection to the rest of Europe. This        the share of renewable energy, and make
example, will of course be a completely            situation therefore needs to be looked at         better use of the taxpayer’s money. German
different situation – as its primary goal is to    more closely at the European level, and           finance minister Schaeuble has suggested
export.                                            grid expansion across borders needs to            recently to build solar power plants in
                                                   be encouraged. The good news is that              Greece and to import clean electricity. I think
Isabel Boira-Segarra: The potential for            politicians have recognised this problem
solar energy is significant both across                                                              this is a trend that we will see more in the
                                                   and first actions are being taken, there is,      future
Europe and on a wider global level. The            however still a long way to go.
stability of the regulatory environment                                                              PES: Do you feel there is still some way
coupled with cost reductions associated            Andreas Weisheit: The solar industry has          to go in PV being taken seriously by
with economies of scale and learning, will         been able to grow to the size where it is         consumers and legislators as a viable
be crucial in determining how quickly it           today thanks to subsidies and Feed-in             source of energy?
takes off.                                         Tarifs. In the long run it needs to become
                                                   self sustainable and to reach grid parity.        Paul Brody: We believe the market is
Currently there are a number of countries          In regions with high sun radiation such as        maturing and the PV providers are maturing
in Europe with some type of Feed-in Tariff         Italy this will be reached soon, while it will    as well. A tipping point is near. As quoted in
mechanism to incentivise investment in solar       take longer for Germany which is the largest      the recently published EPIA report ‘Global
as it still remains too expensive to deploy on     market for solar modules today. Eventually,       Market Outlook for Photovoltaics till 2015’,
a large-scale basis without financial support.     both industry and governments will need to        in 2010 in Europe alone PV was leading
Solar PV has great potential across Europe         consider how the available subsidies will be      the renewable energy sector with 13.3 GW
as a form of renewable generation which            used in the optimum way.                          installed, and was second only to gas power


                                                                                                                           www.pessolar.com 13
ROUNDTABLE




     “In rapidly developing countries like India,                                                         countries. Considering the move towards
                                                                                                          a non-nuclear policy that we are seeing,
     though, where 400 million people are without                                                         renewables are growing in popularity much
                                                                                                          more quickly than we would have expected
     ready access to electricity and where an                                                             only a couple of years ago.

     ambitious national solar roadmap is beginning to                                                     Andreas Weisheit: The solar industry is a
                                                                                                          billion dollar industry today and projected
     take hold, solar can make a huge difference in                                                       to become a 100 billion dollar industry very
                                                                                                          soon. It is a substantial contributor to the
     lifting them out of poverty and isolation”                                                           economy today and recognised as such. In
                                                                                                          order to be a viable source for energy in the
                                                                                                          long term, it needs to reach grid parity. New
                                                                                       Bettina Weiss      investments along the value chain that we
                                                                                                          see happening today will help to advance
                                                                                                          on the learning curve and bring costs down,
                                                                                                          and competition will drive down prices and
                                                                                                          make solar energy affordable.
                                                                                                          PES: How do you feel about large,
     plants which had 18 to 20 GW installations.       With electricity not outrageously expensive
                                                                                                          conventional energy suppliers jumping on
     In Spain and Germany, average contribution        and with many jobs in central and Southern
                                                                                                          the solar/PV ‘bandwagon’? Is it a cynical
     from PV to electricity generation is more         US depending on oil and coal, legislators
                                                                                                          move or does it present an opportunity?
     than two per cent of the total on average per     there are still very reluctant to make the shift
     year.                                             from fossil fuels to renewables. In rapidly        Paul Brody: A big opportunity. The jury is
                                                       developing countries like India, though,           out on whether the bulk of solar will come
     However in many cases today, PV remains
                                                       where 400 million people are without ready         from big providers operating industrial-scale
     more expensive than conventional electricity
                                                       access to electricity and where an ambitious       plants or a highly distributed model. This
     production methods. With the industry
                                                       national solar roadmap is beginning to take        move will offer opportunities for the utilities,
     progressing towards grid parity supported
                                                       hold, solar can make a huge difference in          as they will have to adapt their business
     by government incentives and schemes,
                                                       lifting them out of poverty and isolation.         models transforming into new generation
     competitiveness of PV with other energy
                                                                                                          utilities than can take up important tasks in
     sources will be achieved in around 5 years        Isabel Boira-Segarra: This depends on
                                                                                                          the future electricity grids as aggregators,
     in several countries, according to EPIA           which country you consider – in markets like
                                                                                                          facilitators and network service providers.
     (European Photovoltaic Industry Association).     Germany PV is already widely recognised by
     Just as with hybrid or electric cars, the         both consumers and legislators as providing        The addition of conventional sellers will
     success of the Prius and the Tesla sports car     a valuable contribution to the country’s           add capacity, scale, and depth to the
     changed market perception and started a           overall energy mix.                                industry and that can only be good. Not
     stampede towards these new products.                                                                 only conventional energy suppliers, but
                                                       The regulatory uncertainty created in Spain
                                                                                                          also some key oil and gas companies have
     The same can apply to solar now even more,        where they retrospectively amended the
                                                                                                          already embarked on the PV opportunity.
     especially as some European countries have        Feed-in Tariffs, destabilises the market and
     decided to exit their nuclear power strategy      undermines the long-term certainty investors       Additionally, Total recently announced
     or not to enter into it. Also the nuclear power   require to support renewable projects. In          it is acquiring a stake in SunPower
     future for Japan is under debate. All of this     other markets like the UK a greater level of       Corporation and Dow Chemical, a diversified
     will result in a stronger need for renewable      convincing is needed due in no small part to       petrochemicals company, has also ventured
     energies of which PV is going to be an            scepticism around whether the UK climate is        into solar energy as Dow Solar and recently
     essential element.                                really suitable for solar energy.                  confirmed the construction of its new
                                                                                                          manufacturing facility for producing solar
     Bettina Weiss: I believe the level of             To counteract this issue the industry needs
                                                                                                          shingles.
     renewable energy adoption by consumers            to educate consumers on the benefits of PV
     and the general public has a long way             particularly when solar panels are integrated      Many countries are now moving towards
     to go. Most consumers are not familiar            within the built environment. This ability to      decentralised electricity generation. The
     with purchasing energy, so it’s a learning        generate energy on the point of demand             decentralised model will however depend
     process. In Europe, public mindset                can help consumers significantly reduce            on the availability of various technologies
     was sensitised in the 1980s with fairly           their energy bills and is a factor that helps      to manage large penetrations of PV.
     sophisticated recycling programs in small         to differentiate solar from other larger scale     These may include batteries peak load
     communities.                                      renewables such as marine energy.                  shaving (demand-side management),
                                                                                                          mixing and balancing different sources of
     I remember even back then separating              John Meadows: Essentially, there has been
                                                                                                          renewable energy through enhancement
     glass, paper, even aluminum yogurt                a consensus for some time that the future of
                                                                                                          of interconnections between countries and
     lids. This early awareness has certainly          our energy supply lies in renewable energy
                                                                                                          local grid management through smarter
     contributed to the European embrace of            sources. The only aspect that was and still
                                                                                                          grids.
     solar energy in particular, which culminated      is being discussed today is how quickly the
     in one of the strongest and fastest               shift over to renewable energy should take         Bettina Weiss: No, I don’t think it’s a
     growing markets this industry has seen.           place and how much this will cost. Today,          cynical move – it’s a very necessary one to
     In other parts of the world, even in many         renewable energy sources in general and            stay relevant. I remember talking to a GE
     industrialised countries like the US, a lot of    solar energy in particular already play an         executive a number of years ago, who told
     work remains to be done.                          important role in the energy mix in many           me back then that Shell was looking at “all


14    PES: Europe
ROUNDTABLE




renewables across the board”. Fast forward       a long-term payback. Project finance             is there a concern – given the scope of
to PrimeStar Solar… Diversification is just a    is now the most critical element of the          variability in quality and efficiency in PV
smart thing to do.                               development process for PV systems.              modules – over regulation and quality
                                                 The banks providing this financing have          standards and the reputation of the
John Meadows: The more parties who get
                                                 become more involved in system design            industry?
involved in solar PV the better. One should
                                                 and vendor and product selection. In an
not forget that large conventional energy                                                         Paul Brody: Depends on what you
                                                 effort to manage risk, many banks have
producers tend to operate centralised power                                                       consider as emerging suppliers. I believe
                                                 now established approved vendor lists
stations. It is actually decentralisation that                                                    we have a strong European basis of very
                                                 (AVLs). They will demand a higher yield
makes PV so wonderful. PV installations                                                           mature suppliers that are successful on a
                                                 on loans for projects involving unproven
are usually built relatively close to where                                                       global basis. Quality and efficiency of PV
                                                 vendors or unproven technologies.
the power is consumed, this offers                                                                modules is mostly driven by the underlying
advantages because it is consumed where          Bruce Cross: The financial environment           PV equipment technology and the effort
it is generated, which in turn, means lower      is generally unstable, and has huge              of the manufacturers to further develop
transmission and transformer related losses      national variations around Europe.               on this basis. Manufacturers in the main
and less dependence on imports.                  However there are intractable drivers            geographies like Europe, Asia or Americas
                                                 that encourage the implementation                have access to the same PV equipment
Furthermore, this provides greater support
                                                 of PV: the EU targets for renewable              technology. So this is no differentiator.
for the local economy, due to the fact that
                                                 power generation, and carbon reduction
value is created directly at the location e.g.                                                    What differentiates is each manufacturer’s
                                                 commitments by national governments.
work for skilled craftsmen, etc. Generally                                                        effort to push the borders of efficiencies
                                                 Conversely, the mechanisms to achieve
speaking, decentralised power operations                                                          and cost per Watt peak. And also here
                                                 this are weak due to both constraints
promote diversity with respect to the                                                             Europe has a strong history with a close
                                                 in the capital markets and uncertainties
participants involved and a greater level of                                                      collaboration between industry, research
                                                 about financial returns since they are
competition over prices and innovations.                                                          institutes and academia. Considering the
                                                 primarily government driven.
                                                                                                  typical cost disadvantage of European
Andreas Weisheit: I don’t think it is a
                                                 Isabel Boira-Segarra: Currently the PV           manufactured products it is imperative for
cynical move. Large energy companies are
                                                 sector is dependent on subsidies so              those players to differentiate through lower
driven by economics and normally can’t
                                                 unsurprisingly, in those markets where           degradation or improved serviceability
afford to make cynical decisions. They
                                                 there are no subsides you tend to find low       over their Asian competitors. Almost like a
understand that solar has great support
                                                 deployment of PV solutions. In the current       premium brand strategy. So regulation and
within the public and government spheres.
                                                 environment there is widespread interest in      quality standards can only help European
They can either accept to give up market
                                                 solar but the difficult economic conditions      players.
share to new players, or to participate in
                                                 mean that investors are reticent unless
solar. That’s why we see more engagement.
                                                 there are attractive Feed-in Tariffs in place
PES: Given the current economic climate,         and commitment from legislative bodies
how stable is the financial environment          that these subsidies will not be subject to      “Considering the move
for solar/PV development?                        change.
                                                                                                  towards a non-nuclear
Paul Brody: Direct and indirect subsidies        In markets like Spain and the Czech
remain key incentives for solar sales around     Republic, retrospective alterations to tariffs   policy that we are
the world. Given budget pressures, those         eroded investor confidence as they were no
subsidies are likely to come under increased     longer guaranteed a secure return on their       seeing, renewables are
pressure in the coming years. Removing
them entirely could set the industry back
                                                 investment. Significant progress has been
                                                 made lowering the costs of PV and these
                                                                                                  growing in popularity
substantially, so finding a way to gradually
transition away from big incentives or slow
                                                 efforts need to continue in order for the
                                                 industry to reach levels where initial capital
                                                                                                  much more quickly
the pay-out without reducing the consumer        expenditure outlay decreases further and it      than we would have
ROI will be important.                           can eventually compete without subsidies.

Solar can pay for itself even for consumer       Andreas Weisheit: The global solar market
                                                                                                  expected only a couple
installations – but finding the right way        is changing from developed markets that are      of years ago”
to market this to consumers will be a            driven by subsidies and FiTs, to emerging
challenge. PV companies need to think            markets that are driven by energy needs and                                   John Meadows
about the business model they have –             grid parity. For these new markets financial
marketing, sales, and financing – to maintain    support does not have priority anymore.
the attractiveness of the investment. Recent     Developed markets like Germany and Italy         Bettina Weiss: Yes, there is certainly
studies showing that home values rise with       will shrink in the coming years – down to        concern with respect to module reliability
the installation of PV could be critical in      a level that is accepted and supported by        and quality as well as the associated
unlocking financing and consumer interest in     the governments. In Germany for example          warranty for solar systems. Consumers
some countries.                                  the government targets three to four GW          would benefit from a harmonised approach
                                                 installations of solar modules per year. New     to defining and implementing standards
Successful PV vendors will need to develop
                                                 installations were 7.4 GW in 2010 and will       that give them easy-to-understand ways of
sophisticated finance offerings to attract
                                                 also exceed targets in 2011. So a reduction      comparing solar systems, understanding
industrial customers wanting to avail
                                                 is mandatory.                                    the degradation of efficiency over time,
themselves of the long-term economic
benefits of PV solar but who cannot free         PES: With increasing numbers of                  amortisation and other aspects that will help
up large amounts of capital for such             emerging manufacturers across Europe,            them make informed decisions. We are part


                                                                                                                       www.pessolar.com 15
ROUNDTABLE




     “There might be a quality concern in the short                                                      starts to contribute to a significant share
                                                                                                         of total electricity generation. Fourth is
     term, but already today tier one manufacturers                                                      infrastructure of supporting industry such
                                                                                                         as project developers and installers.
     have more than 20GW installed capacity –                                                            PES: Over the next five years, what
     enough to cover the demand. Low quality                                                             increases in the efficiency of PV
                                                                                                         technologies can we realistically expect?
     standards will not be accepted by the market and                                                    Bruce Cross: PV has been developing by
     will disappear quickly”                                                                             continuous improvements for decades. It
                                                                                                         seems likely that these incremental steps
                                                                                   Andreas Weisheit      will continue, giving one or two percentage
                                                                                                         points improvement. Large jumps in output
                                                                                                         only come with significant changes, and
                                                                                                         the long warranties given with PV modules
                                                                                                         restrict the pace of uptake of new materials
     of a dialogue among research institutes           learn a lot from early adopters. In the case      and processes.
     and industry that attempts to tackle these        of PV technology, Germany for example, is
     questions and develop supporting standards        one of the largest markets in Europe and          Andreas Weisheit: Five years is difficult
     and guidelines that would drive adoption          is particularly well placed to export their       to foresee. I will try on a two-three year
     and at the same time avoid cheap, unreliable      technical and commercial expertise to some        horizon. Crystalline silicon should be able to
     modules flooding the market. Transparency         of their neighbouring countries in Eastern        reach more than 16 per cent efficiency for
     and consumer protection are key.                  Europe.                                           multi-crystalline and ~18 per cent for mono-
                                                                                                         crystalline technology, on a module basis
     John Meadows: Quality is an extremely             These new markets need to focus on                and in mass production. That is 20 per cent
     important issue, PV systems must show             developing a stable regulatory framework          (relative) higher than today’s levels. Besides
     performance stability and longer service          right from the very outset and establishing       higher efficiency there will be very high focus
     lives, even under the most severe climatic        a level of support that kick starts the           on costs – in particular on polysilicon.
     conditions. Only then will it be possible to      industry but avoids overheating the market
     generate high yields for long periods of time.    thus providing an adequate climate for            For Cadmium Telluride the dominant
                                                       investment. As developers start to turn           leader target 14 per cent efficiency in 2014.
     To us, the standards of the IEC are not strict                                                      Thin-film silicon is just below 10 per cent
                                                       their attention East, investors will inevitably
     enough. So SCHOTT Solar has committed                                                               today and target >11 per cent with through
                                                       follow so if these countries are to capitalise
     itself to developing appropriate standards                                                          improved light adsorption. Industry leader
                                                       on this interest they will need to ensure that
     and helping the respective organisations                                                            Oerlikon have launched a product that offers
                                                       they have the market conditions in place
     to develop tests. Something that can serve                                                          10 per cent efficiency and 0.50 Eur/Wp cost
                                                       to attract the upfront capital investment
     as a good example is the TÜV Rheinland’s                                                            today. CIGS is the wildcard - while it offers
                                                       needed to get the solar industry up and
     the 2010 Energy Yield Test. Thanks to new                                                           efficiency beyond 15 per cent in the lab,
                                                       running.
     software, a completely shadow free test roof
                                                                                                         companies have not been able to transfer
     and highly precise measuring equipment,           John Meadows: They are certainly                  this into mass production until today.
     TÜV Rheinland was able to raise the test to       benefiting from how prices have been
     an entirely new level.                            developing recently, also the German              PES: Following the announcement of a
                                                       Feed-in Tariff model provides an excellent        joint EU-Japan project to develop high
     In this test, SCHOTT Solar AG was awarded
                                                       example to follow.                                efficiency concentrator solar/PV cells,
     first place for its SCHOTT PERFORM
                                                                                                         do you expect to see more of these
     POLY 225 photovoltaic module that proved          The German Renewable Energy Act “EEG”             international collaborations?
     especially powerful in comparison to the 12       is widely recognised as being the most
     other modules from various manufacturers          successful political tool for promoting           Paul Brody: Developing superior PV
     which were also evaluated                         renewable energies. A report from the EU          technologies and manufacturing facilities
                                                       Commission confirms that the EEG is both          that scale is a capital intensive business.
     Andreas Weisheit: There are more than
                                                       the most effective and least expensive way        For many companies, the only way to stay
     300 manufacturers active in the area of
                                                       of increasing the share of renewable energy       competitive will be through collaboration.
     solar cells and solar modules globally, most
                                                       in the total energy mix.                          Innovation these days is mostly coming from
     of them in China. As the industry matures,
                                                                                                         collaboration amongst various parties – the
     there will be a consolidation. Only the quality   Andreas Weisheit: The key prerequisites           days when innovation happened behind
     and cost leaders will survive. There might        are, firstly, FiTs with clear regulations at
                                                                                                         locked doors are gone. For example we
     be a quality concern in the short term,           what conditions solar electricity will be
                                                                                                         are working with Solar Frontier on joint PV
     but already today tier one manufacturers          fed into the grid. Even at grid parity such
                                                                                                         research program.
     have more than 20GW installed capacity –          regulations will be required – at wholesale
     enough to cover the demand. Low quality           electricity prices. Second is a transparent       So the industry is more and more getting
     standard will not be accepted by the market       process for approving solar installations         into this mode of working which is a very
     and will disappear quickly.                       to get access to the grid. Countries like         good sign. In our semiconductor business
                                                       Greece could not grow quickly even with           at IBM, we have assembled a global alliance
     PES: As new Eastern European markets
                                                       an FiT in place, as the process of approval       of technology companies to jointly invest
     develop, can they learn from Western
                                                       was complicated and lengthy. Third is a           in and develop the latest generation of
     Europe to faster/better adopt solar/PV?
                                                       grid that can absorb solar power readily.         semiconductor systems. This method is
     Isabel Boira-Segarra: Like any other              Not so much a concern in the early                challenging to run, but it has allowed us to
     industry new players in the solar market can      stages, but important when solar power            stay at the forefront of the industry despite


16    PES: Europe
ROUNDTABLE




the fact that R&D costs and build costs for       Defect monitoring with proactive alerts to      the general public, still face the challenge
new factories are running into the billions of    field service technicians and automated         of raising the initial capital that is required
dollars.                                          spare parts delivery are available as a         to buy and install a PV system. They
                                                  technology in neighbouring markets              may choose to opt for a ‘free electricity’
We see a similar challenge in solar. The key
                                                  but are not used today in PV. Or look at        arrangement whereby they do not fund
will be the business model maturity of the
                                                  highly granular weather forecast for cloud      the equipment and in return they forego
players participating. It takes a sophisticated
                                                  movements and so on – this is all available     the revenue generated by the FiT. But to
approach to R&D, capital spending and             as of today but at the end of the day it        increase the uptake of PV at the private
intellectual property management to make          needs a brave first-mover in the industry       domestic level, it is necessary to effect
global R&D and manufacturing alliances            to adapt technologies like this. And while      institutional change that extends beyond
work.                                             scaling up such solutions they will become      policymakers and encompasses banks and
Bettina Weiss: At SEMI, we are seeing it          much cheaper and will certainly help to         other financial institutions.
already. We are supporting a SEMI Special         elevate today’s PV business cases.
                                                                                                  If it was easier to access funding then the
Interest Group – the Crystalline Silicon          Isabel Boira-Segarra: Practices such as         level of interest from this market segment
Manufacturers Group or CTM – in their             defect monitoring and viability studies play    would grow, particularly if it was combined
efforts to develop a c-Si PV technology           an increasingly important role especially       with a well-thought out educational
roadmap. We are actively engaged with             when it comes to increasing the certainty of    programme demonstrating the benefits and
the newly formed, SEMATECH and                    performance from PV solutions on small-         dispelling some of the fears associated with
CNSE-led PV Manufacturing Consortium              scale schemes where there may not be a          this technology.
in the U.S., and I wouldn’t be surprised          dedicated resource to monitor performance.
if Asian manufacturers saw the benefits           In larger systems improving efficiency
of a collaborative effort very soon as            and increasing productivity are critical in
well. There are clear advantages to be            maximising returns.
gained by finding areas that benefit from
collaboration – manufacturing cost drivers,       Big players are more attuned to this issue
                                                                                                  “Large jumps in
process efficiency, silicon wafer parameters,     and are leading the way in helping to
                                                  demonstrate the return solar technology can
                                                                                                  output only come with
materials requirements, etc. These efforts
appear to be strongest when bringing              deliver to the balance sheet. At a time when    significant changes,
                                                  PV solutions are increasingly competing with
government, industry and research to the
table around clearly defined goals.               other sectors for limited levels of funding     and the long warranties
John Meadows: There are actually two
                                                  this ability to demonstrate financial return
                                                  will be increasingly important when it comes    given with PV modules
ways to make PV more competitive, firstly
reducing the manufacturing costs and
                                                  to winning the hearts and minds of the
                                                  investor community across the globe.
                                                                                                  restrict the pace of
secondly increasing module efficiency.
                                                  PES: After the FiT cuts in the UK for           uptake of new materials
This calls for intensive research efforts,
there are already many initiatives at both
                                                  medium/large installations, should there
                                                  be greater incentives and initiatives
                                                                                                  and processes”
the national and international level and we       for the private installer to redress the
certainly hope this trend will continue.          balance?                                                                          Bruce Cross
Andreas Weisheit: The solar industry is           Bruce Cross: The UK FiT has suffered
already a global industry today. Leaders like     a loss of confidence by the investment
First Solar manufacture in the US, Germany        community. The tariff for small domestic        PES: Will Europe ever be able to match
and Malaysia and are extending their base.        installations makes a good case as an           the proposed massive-scale PV plants of
In the future we will see more collaboration      investment already – the difficulty is that     the US and China?
where R&D is undertaken in developed              the public lack trust in the government not
                                                                                                  Paul Brody: Yes, it is possible. This is
countries, and directly transferred to plants     to change their minds again. They feel that
                                                                                                  particularly true if we see the entry of
in China, Taiwan and Korea.                       there is a chance that their income stream
                                                                                                  major utilities into high volume, mega-
                                                  will be retrospectively cut in some years
PES: How are supplemental solar/PV                                                                scale projects. In fact, according to EPIA
                                                  time, and their investment return might
technologies and practices helping in                                                             in 2010, Germany was leading in global PV
                                                  be compromised. These reservations are
easing the concerns of investors in these                                                         space with 7.4GW installed and a national
                                                  shared by the small business community
tough economic times?                                                                             target of 51 GW by 2020. With lowest
                                                  who might be investing in sub-50kW
                                                                                                  system prices and FiTs also amongst the
Paul Brody: The important word here               systems. A positive marketing campaign
                                                                                                  lowest (average of 0.26Eur/kWh produced),
is “investors.” I believe everything that         by the government might resolve these
                                                                                                  Germany continues to attract investors.
improves the return on investment from            concerns.
                                                                                                  In order to remain competitive, however,
renewable energy sources is appreciated.
                                                  Isabel Boira-Segarra: The UK government         European companies need to build captive
Today most PV installations are pretty
                                                  could argue that their recent decision to       demand sales pipeline with the utility and
simple in nature. No adaptation to
                                                  prioritise very small scale solar schemes by    independent power producer firms.
surrounding conditions is the current norm.
                                                  redirecting the available funding away from
However, there are technologies in the                                                            The EPIA also indicates that at least 50-
                                                  larger schemes is clear evidence of their
making or already out there, which help to                                                        55 per cent of the total value of the PV
                                                  commitment to small private installers.
actively manage PV performance. I can refer                                                       system is created close to the end market,
to the IBM 7HV technology which is a power        Nevertheless, funding through the FiTs only     of which 80 per cent was located in the
management chip that helps to improve PV          becomes available once solar panels are         EU countries in 2010. At present, while a
output by up to 15 per cent.                      operational. Small private installers such as   large number (50 per cent) of c-Si type of


                                                                                                                        www.pessolar.com 17
ROUNDTABLE




     “Regulatory obstacles, small and large, make                                                    achieve this, the industry needs to build
                                                                                                     common campaigns with end-consumer
     a big impact. It can be as simple as getting                                                    organisations. By working with the
                                                                                                     customer, the joint voice will have greater
     municipalities to change rules on trimming trees                                                credibility with political bodies.

     to facilitate sunlight on the roof”                                                             Andreas Weisheit: There remains work to
                                                                                                     be done to educate policy makers about
                                                                                                     the benefits and opportunities of solar. The
                                                                                      Paul Brody     solar industry will benefit from the resulting
                                                                                                     market growth, so it is its interest to invest
                                                                                                     in the education and influencing of policy
                                                                                                     makers.
                                                                                                     PES: There was a time when there was a
                                                                                                     green jobs shortage. Has the market now
                                                                                                     matured enough to address this?
     PV modules are assembled in China, most        market, rather than firing it. There is a huge   Paul Brody: Yes, we think so. The
     of the Thin-Film manufacturing plants are      opportunity for solar in these territories.      perception of green jobs has not only
     located in other parts of the world, leaders                                                    increased in the Industry but also in the
                                                    PES: There have been efforts made
     being the EU, USA, Japan and Malaysia.                                                          population. Countries like Germany are one
                                                    by associations and consortiums to
                                                                                                     of the leading examples.
     Another fact that will help to massive         reduce the administrative barriers to
     scale up PV plants in Europe could be          PV implementation. To what extent is it          According to the German Association of
     the geographical advantages Southern           the industry’s responsibility to influence       Renewable Energies, they have today
     Europe is offering. Spain as one example       policy making?                                   about 220,000 employees in this sector
     has a vast amount of less-populated areas                                                       and are predicting a demand in 2020 of
     representing one of the most arid and sun-     Paul Brody: Regulatory obstacles, small
                                                                                                     about 500,000 employees. According to
     rich areas in Europe. As grid technology       and large, make a big impact. It can
                                                                                                     EPIA, on average, 30 full-time equivalent
     is improving and grid parity getting closer,   be as simple as getting municipalities
                                                                                                     (FTE) jobs are created for each MW of solar
     this will give Europe all the chances to       to change rules on trimming trees to
                                                                                                     power modules produced and installed.
     massive-scale up faster PV plants.             facilitate sunlight on the roof. It can also     The figure for employment takes into
                                                    be as complex as managing inter-state            account the whole PV value-chain including
     Isabel Boira-Segarra: The US and               and country connections in the electrical        research centres, installers, and producers
     China have a massive advantage over            grid. Receptivity to helping PV systems          of silicon, wafers, cells, modules and other
     Europe when it comes to building their         get deployed is high in governments              components. Over 3.5 million people could
     solar industry simply because on a             around the world. If the industry                be employed in the PV sector in 2030.
     purely physical level they have much           invests in lobbying for administrative
     more land in which to build large-             improvements, it will find supportive            Obviously this is going to be a big
     scale plants. Solar panels are typically       and helpful regulators. Streamlining             opportunity for young people to embark in
     ground or roof mounted and are land            administrative procedures and reducing           this ‘green’ journey and to seek their chance
     intensive so countries like the UK are at      the lead times will help keeping project         in this type of emerging renewable energy
     a significant disadvantage compared to         costs down and avoiding unnecessary              markets. As markets are maturing this
     places like China or the US. Furthermore,      high levels of FiTs.                             also represent an opportunity for industry
     the regulatory environment has a major                                                          solution and service providers like IBM. In
     influence on how quickly the solar industry    Bettina Weiss: SEMI’s mission as a               the end this is going to be a ‘war for talents’
     can develop and history suggests that it       global industry association is to remove         where the most agile and most attractive are
     is easier to push these schemes through        barriers, be they administrative, trade-         going to take a higher share.
     in places like China where there is less       related or around innovative technology
                                                    development. Through our International           John Meadows: The market has certainly
     protocol to follow and less attention paid
                                                    Standards Program, for example, we have          matured. Due to the fact that the solar
     to public reaction. In some European
                                                    been able to provide the industries we           industry hasn’t been around for that long,
     markets where there has been an appetite
                                                    serve a platform to collectively address         most of the jobs are still held by people who
     to increase the focus on PV, regulatory
                                                    non- or pre-competitive challenges. This in      come from other industries.
     challenges can act as an impediment to
     the progress of the industry.                  turn gives them the time to focus on true        However as the market develops there is
                                                    innovation and differentiation. However,         an increased level of training and education
     Andreas Weisheit: US and China have            we do think that the industry – the entire       available to encourage graduates and
     higher energy demand and areas with            supply chain ecosystem, actually – has the       engineers to consider this sector for
     higher sun irradiation than Europe. Under      biggest pull when it comes to implementing       employment. In any case, cleantech is
     grid parity conditions we expect to see        favorable legislation that bolsters renewable    a fast growing sector, and we won’t be
     the largest PV power plants in these           energy generation and deployment. Industry       complaining about a shortage of green jobs
     countries. Another region of interest is the   stakeholders are the ones who will create        in the foreseeable future.
     Middle East. Whilst this is a location with
                                                    new jobs and strengthen the standing
     abundance sunshine, grid parity is difficult                                                    Andreas Weisheit: There is currently a
                                                    of a domestic market. That’s a language
     to achieve because electricity is subsidised                                                    shortage of solar specialists in areas of
                                                    government officials understand.
     and very cheap. Governments recognise                                                           high growth like in China. It will take some
     that they can save and optimise resources      Bruce Cross: It is certainly in the industry’s   time till this is overcome. On the other
     when they sell their oil and gas at the        interest to influence policy, but to best        hand the current situation of oversupply


18    PES: Europe
ROUNDTABLE




will lead to consolidation and possibly to a    renewables but this will need to be ramped
more balanced situation. When the industry      up over the coming years to help service a
matures and moves to growth rates of 20 per     growing demand
cent or below (from >100 per cent in 2010),
                                                John Meadows: We are quite confident that
the infrastructure for education and training
                                                this is the case, nevertheless as I mentioned
should be able to match that growth.
                                                earlier, many of our highly skilled employees
PES: Do you feel there is enough support        actually developed their skills in other fields,
at the skills development and educational       such as the semiconductor, chemical or
level to equip the next generation with the     automotive industry, for instance.
tools they need to work in, and continue
                                                Today, we are receiving more and more
to develop, the PV industry?
                                                applications from highly motivated
Paul Brody: PV will provide for increased       individuals who are driven to protect the
number of jobs in the future, however this      environment by working in the solar industry.
will have to be supported by adequate skills    Andreas Weisheit: As previously
and appropriate education. Some of the          mentioned, currently there is a shortage
most relevant qualifications across the PV      of specialists and the market will continue
value chain are:                                to grow at a much higher rate than
• Solar module production: a background in      other markets. Investments are made at
  chemistry, physics and specialisation in PV   educational level, and the industry needs at
                                                the minimum to maintain that momentum.
• PV system integration: technicians and
  engineers for mounting of systems along       PES: With the visual impact and effect on
  with highly skilled staff for management,     local environments still a barrier to the
  contracting, design and marketing             implementation of large scale PV plants,
                                                is the future in smaller developments
• Installation: certified installers; ideally   serving localised communities?
  electricians, plumbers, roofers and other
                                                Bruce Cross: Micro-generation has
  construction workers will have to develop
                                                advantages in lower distribution
  specialised knowledge on PV installations
                                                requirements and the ability to utilise            PES would like to thank all our roundtable
• Recycling of PV modules: qualified            existing infrastructure for mounting and                 contributors. For more information,
  and trained in chemistry, physics with        connection, especially when built as part              please visit their respective websites:
  understanding of recycling issues and         of a new development where it is designed
                                                in at the start. Local community support is                                     Bettina Weiss
  technology
                                                much greater as the project can be seen as                 Executive Director, PV Group, SEMI
* R&D: experienced scientists and engineers     being of direct benefit to those affected.                                      www.semi.org
with a high specialisation in PV
                                                Andreas Weisheit: There are two market                                             Paul Brody
Particularly of importance will be early        segments where solar can capture a                          Global Electronics Industry Leader,
practical training in PV, project oriented      significant share of the energy market in the                   IBM Global Business Services
education, and external trainings in the        future. One is large scale power plants in                                  www.ibm.com/gbs
industry.                                       sunny areas, where electricity then needs                                Isabel Boira-Segarra
Isabel Boira-Segarra: If the industry does      to be transported through the grid to the               Sector Leader for Renewables, Europe,
grow as expected there will be a need for       area where it is needed. The other is local                                          EC Harris
a greater number of qualified people who        generation and use. This needs storage                                      www.echarris.com
can install and maintain solar panels. There    technologies however, which are costly
                                                to add to solar plants today. I see a larger                                    Bruce Cross
are already some existing professional
                                                potential to the large scale PV plants in the                       Managing Director, GB-Sol
training qualifications although as demand                                                                                 www.gb-sol.co.uk
rises there will be room to complement          future.
these further. This gap can be filled from                                                                                   John Meadows
other areas within the construction industry                                                             Managing Director, SCHOTT Solar UK
such as roofing, electrical or assembly                                                                          www.schott.com/uk/english/
work where the skills required are broadly
                                                                                                                             Andreas Weisheit
transferable.
                                                                                                       Global Flat Panel Display/Solar and Asia
Higher level skills are necessary in the                                                                Market Development, Linde Electronics
manufacture of PV cells and panels and                                                                         www.linde-gas.com/electronics
in the design of PV systems. The former
can to some extent be transferred from
the electronic industry whereas the latter
skills are more specific. In order to meet           Opinion makers and idealists wanted!
expected growth, there will be a need                Would you like to sit on the next roundtable? We’re currently looking for
for a global workforce that is educated              contributors and would welcome applications. Please contact the editor,
on these specialist areas. In the UK and             Simeon de la Torre, at sim@pes.eu.com for details.
across Europe there are already several
universities who offer specific MA degrees in


                                                                                                                       www.pessolar.com 19

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Solar Industry Roundtable Interview

  • 1. ROUNDTABLE Solar/PV roundtable The most talked-about feature in PES returns, with a fresh selection of questions for the industry’s most incisive and intelligent commentators. Their approaches may differ, but rest assured that you’re getting the very best analysis that the industry can provide. 12 PES: Europe
  • 2. ROUNDTABLE Contributors BETTINA WEISS PAUL BRODY ISABEL BOIRA- BRUCE CROSS JOHN MEADOWS ANDREAS WEISHEIT Executive Director, PV Global Electronics SEGARRA Managing Director, Managing Director, Global Flat Panel Group, SEMI Industry Leader, IBM Sector Leader for GB-Sol SCHOTT Solar UK Display/Solar and Asia Global Business Renewables, Europe, Market Development, Services EC Harris Linde Electronics PES: Do you think we will see a time when energy produced by solar/PV is consumed at the point of demand and is integrated within the fabric of the built “Within Europe, it is becomes a major export for Europe’s sun-blessed countries? environment. In Europe’s sunniest countries where there is also enough land to install possible to export ‘know- Paul Brody: Yes, I believe that will be ground-mounted farms, it can be deployed how’, and markets like at a significantly larger scale, making possible. Cross-border power generation and sales are already standard practices exports more feasible. Spain and Germany in the utility industry and solar are likely Places like North Africa have the greatest are already exporting to be no exception. There is certain to be potential for exporting solar energy as challenges unique to solar including the fact solar irradiation is high, land is more readily knowledge on how to available and local demand is lower. Within that output cannot be guaranteed. Europe, it is possible to export ‘know-how’ develop and implement Additionally, Feed-in Tariffs which have often been very generous to consumers and markets like Spain and Germany are already exporting knowledge on how to solar projects” are usually backed with state guarantees develop and implement solar projects. This or direct or indirect subsidies. That will not is likely to continue further in the coming Isabel Boira-Segarra easily be applied to cross border outputs. years bringing associated economic benefits to those economies. Solar power plants can work more efficiently Given the fact that solar energy as of today in regions with greater sunlight. So it would represents a relatively small share, the John Meadows: The grid is actually the be more economical to use part of the priority will likely be consumption within bottleneck. Spain for example, with its huge subsidies from central European countries to the home country first and export only potential for solar energy, is essentially an build solar power plants in Southern Europe. once a threshold of solar in the mix has island when it comes to energy with hardly This can contribute to the target to increase been reached. Initiatives like Desertec, for any connection to the rest of Europe. This the share of renewable energy, and make example, will of course be a completely situation therefore needs to be looked at better use of the taxpayer’s money. German different situation – as its primary goal is to more closely at the European level, and finance minister Schaeuble has suggested export. grid expansion across borders needs to recently to build solar power plants in be encouraged. The good news is that Greece and to import clean electricity. I think Isabel Boira-Segarra: The potential for politicians have recognised this problem solar energy is significant both across this is a trend that we will see more in the and first actions are being taken, there is, future Europe and on a wider global level. The however still a long way to go. stability of the regulatory environment PES: Do you feel there is still some way coupled with cost reductions associated Andreas Weisheit: The solar industry has to go in PV being taken seriously by with economies of scale and learning, will been able to grow to the size where it is consumers and legislators as a viable be crucial in determining how quickly it today thanks to subsidies and Feed-in source of energy? takes off. Tarifs. In the long run it needs to become self sustainable and to reach grid parity. Paul Brody: We believe the market is Currently there are a number of countries In regions with high sun radiation such as maturing and the PV providers are maturing in Europe with some type of Feed-in Tariff Italy this will be reached soon, while it will as well. A tipping point is near. As quoted in mechanism to incentivise investment in solar take longer for Germany which is the largest the recently published EPIA report ‘Global as it still remains too expensive to deploy on market for solar modules today. Eventually, Market Outlook for Photovoltaics till 2015’, a large-scale basis without financial support. both industry and governments will need to in 2010 in Europe alone PV was leading Solar PV has great potential across Europe consider how the available subsidies will be the renewable energy sector with 13.3 GW as a form of renewable generation which used in the optimum way. installed, and was second only to gas power www.pessolar.com 13
  • 3. ROUNDTABLE “In rapidly developing countries like India, countries. Considering the move towards a non-nuclear policy that we are seeing, though, where 400 million people are without renewables are growing in popularity much more quickly than we would have expected ready access to electricity and where an only a couple of years ago. ambitious national solar roadmap is beginning to Andreas Weisheit: The solar industry is a billion dollar industry today and projected take hold, solar can make a huge difference in to become a 100 billion dollar industry very soon. It is a substantial contributor to the lifting them out of poverty and isolation” economy today and recognised as such. In order to be a viable source for energy in the long term, it needs to reach grid parity. New Bettina Weiss investments along the value chain that we see happening today will help to advance on the learning curve and bring costs down, and competition will drive down prices and make solar energy affordable. PES: How do you feel about large, plants which had 18 to 20 GW installations. With electricity not outrageously expensive conventional energy suppliers jumping on In Spain and Germany, average contribution and with many jobs in central and Southern the solar/PV ‘bandwagon’? Is it a cynical from PV to electricity generation is more US depending on oil and coal, legislators move or does it present an opportunity? than two per cent of the total on average per there are still very reluctant to make the shift year. from fossil fuels to renewables. In rapidly Paul Brody: A big opportunity. The jury is developing countries like India, though, out on whether the bulk of solar will come However in many cases today, PV remains where 400 million people are without ready from big providers operating industrial-scale more expensive than conventional electricity access to electricity and where an ambitious plants or a highly distributed model. This production methods. With the industry national solar roadmap is beginning to take move will offer opportunities for the utilities, progressing towards grid parity supported hold, solar can make a huge difference in as they will have to adapt their business by government incentives and schemes, lifting them out of poverty and isolation. models transforming into new generation competitiveness of PV with other energy utilities than can take up important tasks in sources will be achieved in around 5 years Isabel Boira-Segarra: This depends on the future electricity grids as aggregators, in several countries, according to EPIA which country you consider – in markets like facilitators and network service providers. (European Photovoltaic Industry Association). Germany PV is already widely recognised by Just as with hybrid or electric cars, the both consumers and legislators as providing The addition of conventional sellers will success of the Prius and the Tesla sports car a valuable contribution to the country’s add capacity, scale, and depth to the changed market perception and started a overall energy mix. industry and that can only be good. Not stampede towards these new products. only conventional energy suppliers, but The regulatory uncertainty created in Spain also some key oil and gas companies have The same can apply to solar now even more, where they retrospectively amended the already embarked on the PV opportunity. especially as some European countries have Feed-in Tariffs, destabilises the market and decided to exit their nuclear power strategy undermines the long-term certainty investors Additionally, Total recently announced or not to enter into it. Also the nuclear power require to support renewable projects. In it is acquiring a stake in SunPower future for Japan is under debate. All of this other markets like the UK a greater level of Corporation and Dow Chemical, a diversified will result in a stronger need for renewable convincing is needed due in no small part to petrochemicals company, has also ventured energies of which PV is going to be an scepticism around whether the UK climate is into solar energy as Dow Solar and recently essential element. really suitable for solar energy. confirmed the construction of its new manufacturing facility for producing solar Bettina Weiss: I believe the level of To counteract this issue the industry needs shingles. renewable energy adoption by consumers to educate consumers on the benefits of PV and the general public has a long way particularly when solar panels are integrated Many countries are now moving towards to go. Most consumers are not familiar within the built environment. This ability to decentralised electricity generation. The with purchasing energy, so it’s a learning generate energy on the point of demand decentralised model will however depend process. In Europe, public mindset can help consumers significantly reduce on the availability of various technologies was sensitised in the 1980s with fairly their energy bills and is a factor that helps to manage large penetrations of PV. sophisticated recycling programs in small to differentiate solar from other larger scale These may include batteries peak load communities. renewables such as marine energy. shaving (demand-side management), mixing and balancing different sources of I remember even back then separating John Meadows: Essentially, there has been renewable energy through enhancement glass, paper, even aluminum yogurt a consensus for some time that the future of of interconnections between countries and lids. This early awareness has certainly our energy supply lies in renewable energy local grid management through smarter contributed to the European embrace of sources. The only aspect that was and still grids. solar energy in particular, which culminated is being discussed today is how quickly the in one of the strongest and fastest shift over to renewable energy should take Bettina Weiss: No, I don’t think it’s a growing markets this industry has seen. place and how much this will cost. Today, cynical move – it’s a very necessary one to In other parts of the world, even in many renewable energy sources in general and stay relevant. I remember talking to a GE industrialised countries like the US, a lot of solar energy in particular already play an executive a number of years ago, who told work remains to be done. important role in the energy mix in many me back then that Shell was looking at “all 14 PES: Europe
  • 4. ROUNDTABLE renewables across the board”. Fast forward a long-term payback. Project finance is there a concern – given the scope of to PrimeStar Solar… Diversification is just a is now the most critical element of the variability in quality and efficiency in PV smart thing to do. development process for PV systems. modules – over regulation and quality The banks providing this financing have standards and the reputation of the John Meadows: The more parties who get become more involved in system design industry? involved in solar PV the better. One should and vendor and product selection. In an not forget that large conventional energy Paul Brody: Depends on what you effort to manage risk, many banks have producers tend to operate centralised power consider as emerging suppliers. I believe now established approved vendor lists stations. It is actually decentralisation that we have a strong European basis of very (AVLs). They will demand a higher yield makes PV so wonderful. PV installations mature suppliers that are successful on a on loans for projects involving unproven are usually built relatively close to where global basis. Quality and efficiency of PV vendors or unproven technologies. the power is consumed, this offers modules is mostly driven by the underlying advantages because it is consumed where Bruce Cross: The financial environment PV equipment technology and the effort it is generated, which in turn, means lower is generally unstable, and has huge of the manufacturers to further develop transmission and transformer related losses national variations around Europe. on this basis. Manufacturers in the main and less dependence on imports. However there are intractable drivers geographies like Europe, Asia or Americas that encourage the implementation have access to the same PV equipment Furthermore, this provides greater support of PV: the EU targets for renewable technology. So this is no differentiator. for the local economy, due to the fact that power generation, and carbon reduction value is created directly at the location e.g. What differentiates is each manufacturer’s commitments by national governments. work for skilled craftsmen, etc. Generally effort to push the borders of efficiencies Conversely, the mechanisms to achieve speaking, decentralised power operations and cost per Watt peak. And also here this are weak due to both constraints promote diversity with respect to the Europe has a strong history with a close in the capital markets and uncertainties participants involved and a greater level of collaboration between industry, research about financial returns since they are competition over prices and innovations. institutes and academia. Considering the primarily government driven. typical cost disadvantage of European Andreas Weisheit: I don’t think it is a Isabel Boira-Segarra: Currently the PV manufactured products it is imperative for cynical move. Large energy companies are sector is dependent on subsidies so those players to differentiate through lower driven by economics and normally can’t unsurprisingly, in those markets where degradation or improved serviceability afford to make cynical decisions. They there are no subsides you tend to find low over their Asian competitors. Almost like a understand that solar has great support deployment of PV solutions. In the current premium brand strategy. So regulation and within the public and government spheres. environment there is widespread interest in quality standards can only help European They can either accept to give up market solar but the difficult economic conditions players. share to new players, or to participate in mean that investors are reticent unless solar. That’s why we see more engagement. there are attractive Feed-in Tariffs in place PES: Given the current economic climate, and commitment from legislative bodies how stable is the financial environment that these subsidies will not be subject to “Considering the move for solar/PV development? change. towards a non-nuclear Paul Brody: Direct and indirect subsidies In markets like Spain and the Czech remain key incentives for solar sales around Republic, retrospective alterations to tariffs policy that we are the world. Given budget pressures, those eroded investor confidence as they were no subsidies are likely to come under increased longer guaranteed a secure return on their seeing, renewables are pressure in the coming years. Removing them entirely could set the industry back investment. Significant progress has been made lowering the costs of PV and these growing in popularity substantially, so finding a way to gradually transition away from big incentives or slow efforts need to continue in order for the industry to reach levels where initial capital much more quickly the pay-out without reducing the consumer expenditure outlay decreases further and it than we would have ROI will be important. can eventually compete without subsidies. Solar can pay for itself even for consumer Andreas Weisheit: The global solar market expected only a couple installations – but finding the right way is changing from developed markets that are of years ago” to market this to consumers will be a driven by subsidies and FiTs, to emerging challenge. PV companies need to think markets that are driven by energy needs and John Meadows about the business model they have – grid parity. For these new markets financial marketing, sales, and financing – to maintain support does not have priority anymore. the attractiveness of the investment. Recent Developed markets like Germany and Italy Bettina Weiss: Yes, there is certainly studies showing that home values rise with will shrink in the coming years – down to concern with respect to module reliability the installation of PV could be critical in a level that is accepted and supported by and quality as well as the associated unlocking financing and consumer interest in the governments. In Germany for example warranty for solar systems. Consumers some countries. the government targets three to four GW would benefit from a harmonised approach installations of solar modules per year. New to defining and implementing standards Successful PV vendors will need to develop installations were 7.4 GW in 2010 and will that give them easy-to-understand ways of sophisticated finance offerings to attract also exceed targets in 2011. So a reduction comparing solar systems, understanding industrial customers wanting to avail is mandatory. the degradation of efficiency over time, themselves of the long-term economic benefits of PV solar but who cannot free PES: With increasing numbers of amortisation and other aspects that will help up large amounts of capital for such emerging manufacturers across Europe, them make informed decisions. We are part www.pessolar.com 15
  • 5. ROUNDTABLE “There might be a quality concern in the short starts to contribute to a significant share of total electricity generation. Fourth is term, but already today tier one manufacturers infrastructure of supporting industry such as project developers and installers. have more than 20GW installed capacity – PES: Over the next five years, what enough to cover the demand. Low quality increases in the efficiency of PV technologies can we realistically expect? standards will not be accepted by the market and Bruce Cross: PV has been developing by will disappear quickly” continuous improvements for decades. It seems likely that these incremental steps Andreas Weisheit will continue, giving one or two percentage points improvement. Large jumps in output only come with significant changes, and the long warranties given with PV modules restrict the pace of uptake of new materials of a dialogue among research institutes learn a lot from early adopters. In the case and processes. and industry that attempts to tackle these of PV technology, Germany for example, is questions and develop supporting standards one of the largest markets in Europe and Andreas Weisheit: Five years is difficult and guidelines that would drive adoption is particularly well placed to export their to foresee. I will try on a two-three year and at the same time avoid cheap, unreliable technical and commercial expertise to some horizon. Crystalline silicon should be able to modules flooding the market. Transparency of their neighbouring countries in Eastern reach more than 16 per cent efficiency for and consumer protection are key. Europe. multi-crystalline and ~18 per cent for mono- crystalline technology, on a module basis John Meadows: Quality is an extremely These new markets need to focus on and in mass production. That is 20 per cent important issue, PV systems must show developing a stable regulatory framework (relative) higher than today’s levels. Besides performance stability and longer service right from the very outset and establishing higher efficiency there will be very high focus lives, even under the most severe climatic a level of support that kick starts the on costs – in particular on polysilicon. conditions. Only then will it be possible to industry but avoids overheating the market generate high yields for long periods of time. thus providing an adequate climate for For Cadmium Telluride the dominant investment. As developers start to turn leader target 14 per cent efficiency in 2014. To us, the standards of the IEC are not strict Thin-film silicon is just below 10 per cent their attention East, investors will inevitably enough. So SCHOTT Solar has committed today and target >11 per cent with through follow so if these countries are to capitalise itself to developing appropriate standards improved light adsorption. Industry leader on this interest they will need to ensure that and helping the respective organisations Oerlikon have launched a product that offers they have the market conditions in place to develop tests. Something that can serve 10 per cent efficiency and 0.50 Eur/Wp cost to attract the upfront capital investment as a good example is the TÜV Rheinland’s today. CIGS is the wildcard - while it offers needed to get the solar industry up and the 2010 Energy Yield Test. Thanks to new efficiency beyond 15 per cent in the lab, running. software, a completely shadow free test roof companies have not been able to transfer and highly precise measuring equipment, John Meadows: They are certainly this into mass production until today. TÜV Rheinland was able to raise the test to benefiting from how prices have been an entirely new level. developing recently, also the German PES: Following the announcement of a Feed-in Tariff model provides an excellent joint EU-Japan project to develop high In this test, SCHOTT Solar AG was awarded example to follow. efficiency concentrator solar/PV cells, first place for its SCHOTT PERFORM do you expect to see more of these POLY 225 photovoltaic module that proved The German Renewable Energy Act “EEG” international collaborations? especially powerful in comparison to the 12 is widely recognised as being the most other modules from various manufacturers successful political tool for promoting Paul Brody: Developing superior PV which were also evaluated renewable energies. A report from the EU technologies and manufacturing facilities Commission confirms that the EEG is both that scale is a capital intensive business. Andreas Weisheit: There are more than the most effective and least expensive way For many companies, the only way to stay 300 manufacturers active in the area of of increasing the share of renewable energy competitive will be through collaboration. solar cells and solar modules globally, most in the total energy mix. Innovation these days is mostly coming from of them in China. As the industry matures, collaboration amongst various parties – the there will be a consolidation. Only the quality Andreas Weisheit: The key prerequisites days when innovation happened behind and cost leaders will survive. There might are, firstly, FiTs with clear regulations at locked doors are gone. For example we be a quality concern in the short term, what conditions solar electricity will be are working with Solar Frontier on joint PV but already today tier one manufacturers fed into the grid. Even at grid parity such research program. have more than 20GW installed capacity – regulations will be required – at wholesale enough to cover the demand. Low quality electricity prices. Second is a transparent So the industry is more and more getting standard will not be accepted by the market process for approving solar installations into this mode of working which is a very and will disappear quickly. to get access to the grid. Countries like good sign. In our semiconductor business Greece could not grow quickly even with at IBM, we have assembled a global alliance PES: As new Eastern European markets an FiT in place, as the process of approval of technology companies to jointly invest develop, can they learn from Western was complicated and lengthy. Third is a in and develop the latest generation of Europe to faster/better adopt solar/PV? grid that can absorb solar power readily. semiconductor systems. This method is Isabel Boira-Segarra: Like any other Not so much a concern in the early challenging to run, but it has allowed us to industry new players in the solar market can stages, but important when solar power stay at the forefront of the industry despite 16 PES: Europe
  • 6. ROUNDTABLE the fact that R&D costs and build costs for Defect monitoring with proactive alerts to the general public, still face the challenge new factories are running into the billions of field service technicians and automated of raising the initial capital that is required dollars. spare parts delivery are available as a to buy and install a PV system. They technology in neighbouring markets may choose to opt for a ‘free electricity’ We see a similar challenge in solar. The key but are not used today in PV. Or look at arrangement whereby they do not fund will be the business model maturity of the highly granular weather forecast for cloud the equipment and in return they forego players participating. It takes a sophisticated movements and so on – this is all available the revenue generated by the FiT. But to approach to R&D, capital spending and as of today but at the end of the day it increase the uptake of PV at the private intellectual property management to make needs a brave first-mover in the industry domestic level, it is necessary to effect global R&D and manufacturing alliances to adapt technologies like this. And while institutional change that extends beyond work. scaling up such solutions they will become policymakers and encompasses banks and Bettina Weiss: At SEMI, we are seeing it much cheaper and will certainly help to other financial institutions. already. We are supporting a SEMI Special elevate today’s PV business cases. If it was easier to access funding then the Interest Group – the Crystalline Silicon Isabel Boira-Segarra: Practices such as level of interest from this market segment Manufacturers Group or CTM – in their defect monitoring and viability studies play would grow, particularly if it was combined efforts to develop a c-Si PV technology an increasingly important role especially with a well-thought out educational roadmap. We are actively engaged with when it comes to increasing the certainty of programme demonstrating the benefits and the newly formed, SEMATECH and performance from PV solutions on small- dispelling some of the fears associated with CNSE-led PV Manufacturing Consortium scale schemes where there may not be a this technology. in the U.S., and I wouldn’t be surprised dedicated resource to monitor performance. if Asian manufacturers saw the benefits In larger systems improving efficiency of a collaborative effort very soon as and increasing productivity are critical in well. There are clear advantages to be maximising returns. gained by finding areas that benefit from collaboration – manufacturing cost drivers, Big players are more attuned to this issue “Large jumps in process efficiency, silicon wafer parameters, and are leading the way in helping to demonstrate the return solar technology can output only come with materials requirements, etc. These efforts appear to be strongest when bringing deliver to the balance sheet. At a time when significant changes, PV solutions are increasingly competing with government, industry and research to the table around clearly defined goals. other sectors for limited levels of funding and the long warranties John Meadows: There are actually two this ability to demonstrate financial return will be increasingly important when it comes given with PV modules ways to make PV more competitive, firstly reducing the manufacturing costs and to winning the hearts and minds of the investor community across the globe. restrict the pace of secondly increasing module efficiency. PES: After the FiT cuts in the UK for uptake of new materials This calls for intensive research efforts, there are already many initiatives at both medium/large installations, should there be greater incentives and initiatives and processes” the national and international level and we for the private installer to redress the certainly hope this trend will continue. balance? Bruce Cross Andreas Weisheit: The solar industry is Bruce Cross: The UK FiT has suffered already a global industry today. Leaders like a loss of confidence by the investment First Solar manufacture in the US, Germany community. The tariff for small domestic PES: Will Europe ever be able to match and Malaysia and are extending their base. installations makes a good case as an the proposed massive-scale PV plants of In the future we will see more collaboration investment already – the difficulty is that the US and China? where R&D is undertaken in developed the public lack trust in the government not Paul Brody: Yes, it is possible. This is countries, and directly transferred to plants to change their minds again. They feel that particularly true if we see the entry of in China, Taiwan and Korea. there is a chance that their income stream major utilities into high volume, mega- will be retrospectively cut in some years PES: How are supplemental solar/PV scale projects. In fact, according to EPIA time, and their investment return might technologies and practices helping in in 2010, Germany was leading in global PV be compromised. These reservations are easing the concerns of investors in these space with 7.4GW installed and a national shared by the small business community tough economic times? target of 51 GW by 2020. With lowest who might be investing in sub-50kW system prices and FiTs also amongst the Paul Brody: The important word here systems. A positive marketing campaign lowest (average of 0.26Eur/kWh produced), is “investors.” I believe everything that by the government might resolve these Germany continues to attract investors. improves the return on investment from concerns. In order to remain competitive, however, renewable energy sources is appreciated. Isabel Boira-Segarra: The UK government European companies need to build captive Today most PV installations are pretty could argue that their recent decision to demand sales pipeline with the utility and simple in nature. No adaptation to prioritise very small scale solar schemes by independent power producer firms. surrounding conditions is the current norm. redirecting the available funding away from However, there are technologies in the The EPIA also indicates that at least 50- larger schemes is clear evidence of their making or already out there, which help to 55 per cent of the total value of the PV commitment to small private installers. actively manage PV performance. I can refer system is created close to the end market, to the IBM 7HV technology which is a power Nevertheless, funding through the FiTs only of which 80 per cent was located in the management chip that helps to improve PV becomes available once solar panels are EU countries in 2010. At present, while a output by up to 15 per cent. operational. Small private installers such as large number (50 per cent) of c-Si type of www.pessolar.com 17
  • 7. ROUNDTABLE “Regulatory obstacles, small and large, make achieve this, the industry needs to build common campaigns with end-consumer a big impact. It can be as simple as getting organisations. By working with the customer, the joint voice will have greater municipalities to change rules on trimming trees credibility with political bodies. to facilitate sunlight on the roof” Andreas Weisheit: There remains work to be done to educate policy makers about the benefits and opportunities of solar. The Paul Brody solar industry will benefit from the resulting market growth, so it is its interest to invest in the education and influencing of policy makers. PES: There was a time when there was a green jobs shortage. Has the market now matured enough to address this? PV modules are assembled in China, most market, rather than firing it. There is a huge Paul Brody: Yes, we think so. The of the Thin-Film manufacturing plants are opportunity for solar in these territories. perception of green jobs has not only located in other parts of the world, leaders increased in the Industry but also in the PES: There have been efforts made being the EU, USA, Japan and Malaysia. population. Countries like Germany are one by associations and consortiums to of the leading examples. Another fact that will help to massive reduce the administrative barriers to scale up PV plants in Europe could be PV implementation. To what extent is it According to the German Association of the geographical advantages Southern the industry’s responsibility to influence Renewable Energies, they have today Europe is offering. Spain as one example policy making? about 220,000 employees in this sector has a vast amount of less-populated areas and are predicting a demand in 2020 of representing one of the most arid and sun- Paul Brody: Regulatory obstacles, small about 500,000 employees. According to rich areas in Europe. As grid technology and large, make a big impact. It can EPIA, on average, 30 full-time equivalent is improving and grid parity getting closer, be as simple as getting municipalities (FTE) jobs are created for each MW of solar this will give Europe all the chances to to change rules on trimming trees to power modules produced and installed. massive-scale up faster PV plants. facilitate sunlight on the roof. It can also The figure for employment takes into be as complex as managing inter-state account the whole PV value-chain including Isabel Boira-Segarra: The US and and country connections in the electrical research centres, installers, and producers China have a massive advantage over grid. Receptivity to helping PV systems of silicon, wafers, cells, modules and other Europe when it comes to building their get deployed is high in governments components. Over 3.5 million people could solar industry simply because on a around the world. If the industry be employed in the PV sector in 2030. purely physical level they have much invests in lobbying for administrative more land in which to build large- improvements, it will find supportive Obviously this is going to be a big scale plants. Solar panels are typically and helpful regulators. Streamlining opportunity for young people to embark in ground or roof mounted and are land administrative procedures and reducing this ‘green’ journey and to seek their chance intensive so countries like the UK are at the lead times will help keeping project in this type of emerging renewable energy a significant disadvantage compared to costs down and avoiding unnecessary markets. As markets are maturing this places like China or the US. Furthermore, high levels of FiTs. also represent an opportunity for industry the regulatory environment has a major solution and service providers like IBM. In influence on how quickly the solar industry Bettina Weiss: SEMI’s mission as a the end this is going to be a ‘war for talents’ can develop and history suggests that it global industry association is to remove where the most agile and most attractive are is easier to push these schemes through barriers, be they administrative, trade- going to take a higher share. in places like China where there is less related or around innovative technology development. Through our International John Meadows: The market has certainly protocol to follow and less attention paid Standards Program, for example, we have matured. Due to the fact that the solar to public reaction. In some European been able to provide the industries we industry hasn’t been around for that long, markets where there has been an appetite serve a platform to collectively address most of the jobs are still held by people who to increase the focus on PV, regulatory non- or pre-competitive challenges. This in come from other industries. challenges can act as an impediment to the progress of the industry. turn gives them the time to focus on true However as the market develops there is innovation and differentiation. However, an increased level of training and education Andreas Weisheit: US and China have we do think that the industry – the entire available to encourage graduates and higher energy demand and areas with supply chain ecosystem, actually – has the engineers to consider this sector for higher sun irradiation than Europe. Under biggest pull when it comes to implementing employment. In any case, cleantech is grid parity conditions we expect to see favorable legislation that bolsters renewable a fast growing sector, and we won’t be the largest PV power plants in these energy generation and deployment. Industry complaining about a shortage of green jobs countries. Another region of interest is the stakeholders are the ones who will create in the foreseeable future. Middle East. Whilst this is a location with new jobs and strengthen the standing abundance sunshine, grid parity is difficult Andreas Weisheit: There is currently a of a domestic market. That’s a language to achieve because electricity is subsidised shortage of solar specialists in areas of government officials understand. and very cheap. Governments recognise high growth like in China. It will take some that they can save and optimise resources Bruce Cross: It is certainly in the industry’s time till this is overcome. On the other when they sell their oil and gas at the interest to influence policy, but to best hand the current situation of oversupply 18 PES: Europe
  • 8. ROUNDTABLE will lead to consolidation and possibly to a renewables but this will need to be ramped more balanced situation. When the industry up over the coming years to help service a matures and moves to growth rates of 20 per growing demand cent or below (from >100 per cent in 2010), John Meadows: We are quite confident that the infrastructure for education and training this is the case, nevertheless as I mentioned should be able to match that growth. earlier, many of our highly skilled employees PES: Do you feel there is enough support actually developed their skills in other fields, at the skills development and educational such as the semiconductor, chemical or level to equip the next generation with the automotive industry, for instance. tools they need to work in, and continue Today, we are receiving more and more to develop, the PV industry? applications from highly motivated Paul Brody: PV will provide for increased individuals who are driven to protect the number of jobs in the future, however this environment by working in the solar industry. will have to be supported by adequate skills Andreas Weisheit: As previously and appropriate education. Some of the mentioned, currently there is a shortage most relevant qualifications across the PV of specialists and the market will continue value chain are: to grow at a much higher rate than • Solar module production: a background in other markets. Investments are made at chemistry, physics and specialisation in PV educational level, and the industry needs at the minimum to maintain that momentum. • PV system integration: technicians and engineers for mounting of systems along PES: With the visual impact and effect on with highly skilled staff for management, local environments still a barrier to the contracting, design and marketing implementation of large scale PV plants, is the future in smaller developments • Installation: certified installers; ideally serving localised communities? electricians, plumbers, roofers and other Bruce Cross: Micro-generation has construction workers will have to develop advantages in lower distribution specialised knowledge on PV installations requirements and the ability to utilise PES would like to thank all our roundtable • Recycling of PV modules: qualified existing infrastructure for mounting and contributors. For more information, and trained in chemistry, physics with connection, especially when built as part please visit their respective websites: understanding of recycling issues and of a new development where it is designed in at the start. Local community support is Bettina Weiss technology much greater as the project can be seen as Executive Director, PV Group, SEMI * R&D: experienced scientists and engineers being of direct benefit to those affected. www.semi.org with a high specialisation in PV Andreas Weisheit: There are two market Paul Brody Particularly of importance will be early segments where solar can capture a Global Electronics Industry Leader, practical training in PV, project oriented significant share of the energy market in the IBM Global Business Services education, and external trainings in the future. One is large scale power plants in www.ibm.com/gbs industry. sunny areas, where electricity then needs Isabel Boira-Segarra Isabel Boira-Segarra: If the industry does to be transported through the grid to the Sector Leader for Renewables, Europe, grow as expected there will be a need for area where it is needed. The other is local EC Harris a greater number of qualified people who generation and use. This needs storage www.echarris.com can install and maintain solar panels. There technologies however, which are costly to add to solar plants today. I see a larger Bruce Cross are already some existing professional potential to the large scale PV plants in the Managing Director, GB-Sol training qualifications although as demand www.gb-sol.co.uk rises there will be room to complement future. these further. This gap can be filled from John Meadows other areas within the construction industry Managing Director, SCHOTT Solar UK such as roofing, electrical or assembly www.schott.com/uk/english/ work where the skills required are broadly Andreas Weisheit transferable. Global Flat Panel Display/Solar and Asia Higher level skills are necessary in the Market Development, Linde Electronics manufacture of PV cells and panels and www.linde-gas.com/electronics in the design of PV systems. The former can to some extent be transferred from the electronic industry whereas the latter skills are more specific. In order to meet Opinion makers and idealists wanted! expected growth, there will be a need Would you like to sit on the next roundtable? We’re currently looking for for a global workforce that is educated contributors and would welcome applications. Please contact the editor, on these specialist areas. In the UK and Simeon de la Torre, at sim@pes.eu.com for details. across Europe there are already several universities who offer specific MA degrees in www.pessolar.com 19