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the political economy of north korea

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The Political Economy of North Korea Stephan Haggard, UCSD (work joint with Marcus Noland, Peterson Institute and the East-West Center) Georgia Tech, September 17, 2009
Yŏngbyŏn Nuclear Research Center
Kwangmyŏngsŏng-1 Trajectory
Proliferation Concerns (Hwasŏng or KN-01)
The Political Economy of North Korea ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Political Economy of North Korea II ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Sources ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Evidence from Refugee Surveys ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Background: Economic decline and recovery ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Declining Food Production
Declining Reliance on the PDS
Household Response to Famine
The economy marketized in response to state failure… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Economy: Central Government Policies Ineffective At Grassroots
“ Partial” Reforms Associated with an Increase in Corruption, Inequality and Disaffection
Changing Pathways to Advancement
Reform in Reverse: 2005-2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Origins ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Evidence I: Quantities
Evidence II: Prices 1. 10/01/2005: Ban on private trade in grain & revival of PDS 2. 07/14/2006- 07/15/2006: Flood 3. 10/09/2006: Nuclear Test & UN Sanctions 4. 08/15/2007- 08/31/2007: Flood 5. 12/01/2007: Introduction of Chinese Export controls, partial ban on trading activities 6. 04/01/2008: Tightened control on trading activities 7. 05/14/2008: Military stocks reportedly ordered released & US aid announcement on the 16 th . 8. 06/30/2008: Arrival of first aid shipment
Evidence III: Qualitative ,[object Object]
Current Conditions: Food ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Developments in the External Sector
China’s Growing Share
China-DPRK Trade
China Food Exports to DPRK
Current Conditions: Chinese firm survey ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Some snapshot results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
North-South Trade
Forms of Engagement
The Kaesong Problem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The New Geography of North Korean Trade ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Some Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions II ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank you for your attention ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Who are the refugees?, I ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Who are the refugees?, II ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why do they leave? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Life in North Korea: Hunger ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Life in North Korea: Crimes and punishments, I ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Life in North Korea, Crimes and punishments, II ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Life in North Korea, Crimes and Punishments, III
Psychological dimensions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Life Beyond North Korea ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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the political economy of north korea

Editor's Notes

  1. Government’s 2005 attempt: Sample  Those who left NK 2006 or after.