The document discusses how systems of systems are changing product design and manufacturing. As products, buildings, and infrastructure become smarter, more connected, and data-rich, design must shift from discrete things to integrated systems. The talk will showcase frog's view of "Big Design," which designs adaptive, modular, intelligent systems that connect the human, enterprise, and urban scales. Big Design uses design and engineering to shape interconnected, intelligent systems across many levels. This represents a shift in value from individual devices to connected systems.
1. BIG
DESIGN:
HOW SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS
ARE CHANGING WHAT WE’RE
DESIGNING, AND WHAT WE
NEED TO MANUFACTURE
PATRICK KALAHER
VP OF TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY
frog
2. BIG
DESIGN:
HOW SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS
ARE CHANGING WHAT WE’RE
DESIGNING, AND WHAT WE
NEED TO MANUFACTURE
PATRICK KALAHER
VP OF TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY
frog
3. As products, buildings, and infrastructure
get smarter, more connected, and data-rich,
design must expand from a singular focus
on discrete things and structures towards
the design of adaptive, modular, intelligent,
and interdependent systems. This talk will
showcase what frog sees as the emerging
conceptual architecture of Big Design, and
give examples of how this is changing what,
and how, we make things.
TODAY
2
4. “We need to
shrink our
PDLC from
7 years to
3 years.”
— EXECUTIVE AT SCIENTIFIC
MICROSCOPE MANUFACTURING
COMPANY
3
5. WE SHRUNK
THE PDLC, BUT
THE CUSTOMER
ISN’T BUYING
MICROSCOPES
ANYMORE.
OH MY
4
10. “What do you
mean there’s
no such thing
as Zero Defect
software?”
— EXECUTIVE AT SCIENTIFIC
MICROSCOPE MANUFACTURING
COMPANY
9
11. As products, buildings, and infrastructure get
smarter, more connected and data-rich, design must
expand from a singular focus on discrete things and
structures towards the design of adaptive, modular,
intelligent, and interdependent context—where
things, services, people, and places are always already
connected in direct and oblique ways.
Big Design uses design and engineering to
shape connected, intelligent systems that bridge
the human, enterprise, and urban—or even planetary
— scale.
SHIFT OF VALUE TO
THE SYSTEM, AWAY
FROM THE DEVICE
INFRASTRUCTURE
ENTERPRISE
PERSONALHUMAN SCALE
DISCRETE LINKED, LAYERED
WEARABLE
MOBILE
DEVICE
CAR
BUILDING
COMPLEX
DISTRICT
CITY
REGION
PLANETURBAN SCALE
10
23. IT’S A SERIES
OF PROCESSES
AND SYSTEMS
18
Waste
Collection
Services
Composting
Recycling
Other
Processing
Activities
Production
SortingSorting SortingFinal
Disposal
Waste
Recovery
24. BIGBELLY
“BigBelly uses solar power
for 100% of its energy needs
for trash compacting. The unit
takes up as much space as the
"footprint" of an ordinary
receptacle—but its capacity
is five times greater. Increased
capacity reduces collection trips
and can cut fuel use and
greenhouse gas emissions
by 80%.”
www.bigbelly.com 19
Waste
Collection
Services
Composting
Recycling
Other
Processing
Activities
Production
SortingSorting SortingFinal
Disposal
Waste
Recovery
IT’S GOT TO BE
MUCH BETTER
IN ORDER TO BE
WORTH DOING
25. BIGBELLY
“BigBelly uses solar power
for 100% of its energy needs
for trash compacting. The unit
takes up as much space as the
"footprint" of an ordinary
receptacle—but its capacity
is five times greater. Increased
capacity reduces collection trips
and can cut fuel use and
greenhouse gas emissions
by 80%.”
COST
EFFICIENCY
www.bigbelly.com 19
Waste
Collection
Services
Composting
Recycling
Other
Processing
Activities
Production
SortingSorting SortingFinal
Disposal
Waste
Recovery
IT’S GOT TO BE
MUCH BETTER
IN ORDER TO BE
WORTH DOING
26. BIGBELLY
“BigBelly uses solar power
for 100% of its energy needs
for trash compacting. The unit
takes up as much space as the
"footprint" of an ordinary
receptacle—but its capacity
is five times greater. Increased
capacity reduces collection trips
and can cut fuel use and
greenhouse gas emissions
by 80%.”
COST
MANUFACTURING
COMPLEXITY
DESIGN
COMPLEXITY
DESIGN
COMPLEXITY
OPERATIONAL
COMPLEXITY
COST
EFFICIENCY
www.bigbelly.com 19
Waste
Collection
Services
Composting
Recycling
Other
Processing
Activities
Production
SortingSorting SortingFinal
Disposal
Waste
Recovery
IT’S GOT TO BE
MUCH BETTER
IN ORDER TO BE
WORTH DOING
27. OH MY
“YOU’RE ACTUALLY
IN THE BIG DESIGN
BUSINESS NOW.”
ALONG WITH EVERYONE
ELSE IN MANUFACTURING.
20
32. “Von Neumann had one piece of advice for us:
not to originate anything.” This helped put the IAS
project in the lead. “One of the reasons our group
was successful, and got a big jump on others, was
that we set up certain limited objectives, namely
that we would not produce any new elementary
components.” adds Bigelow.
“We would try and use the ones which were
available for standard communications purposes.
We chose vacuum tubes which were in mass
production, and very common types, so that
we could hope to get reliable components,
and not have to go into component
research.”
DESIGN PRINCIPLES:
INVENT AS LITTLE
AS POSSIBLE
25
36. DESIGN PRINCIPLES:
HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES
28
MORAVEC’S PARADOX
“The hard problems are easy,
the easy problems are hard.”
—Stephen Pinker
POLANYI’S PARADOX
“The skill of a driver cannot be
replaced by a thorough schooling
in Motorcar Theory.”
www.blog.kinaxis.com/2014/10/humans-inloop-part-3-kinaxis-cognizant-series
Physical
Self Monitoring and Regulation
‘Robot Farming’
Human Involvement
Cognitive/Physical Workload
Remote Monitoring
and Controlling
Non-Creative Mental
Work-Managing Robots/Machines
High Percentage of Physical
Labor
Cognitive
3
6
n Future
Tomorrow
Today
80s
60s<1
1
37. 29www.blog.kinaxis.com/2014/10/humans-inloop-part-3-kinaxis-cognizant-series
DESIGN PRINCIPLES:
HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES
MORAVEC’S PARADOX
“The hard problems are easy,
the easy problems are hard.”
—Stephen Pinker
POLANYI’S PARADOX
“The skill of a driver cannot be
replaced by a thorough schooling
in Motorcar Theory.”
Physical
Self Monitoring and Regulation
‘Robot Farming’
Human Involvement
Cognitive/Physical Workload
Remote Monitoring
and Controlling
Non-Creative Mental
Work-Managing Robots/Machines
High Percentage of Physical
Labor
Cognitive
3
6
n Future
Tomorrow
Today
80s
60s<1
1
Physical
Self Monitoring and Regulation
‘Robot Farming’
Human Involvement
Cognitive/Physical Workload
Remote Monitoring
and Controlling
Non-Creative Mental
Work-Managing Robots/Machines
High Percentage of Physical
Labor
Cognitive
3
6
n Future
Tomorrow
Today
80s
60s<1
1
43. BIG DESIGN AT
THREE SCALES
UNIT SCALE
Constrained systems
for specialized needs;
constrained by compute,
network, or power
capabilities.
• System on Chip
• Wireless Sensors
• Energy Harvesting
LOCAL SCALE
Edge compute systems
for real time needs; general
purpose computing
platforms.
• Operating Systems
• Autonomous Vehicles
• Smartphones
• Network Appliances
PLANETARY SCALE
Redundant, parallel compute
systems ideally suited for
parallel processing and
distributed storage needs;
Big Data.
• Hadoop
• Data Centers
• Virtualization
34
44. Source: The Opte Project
SMALL PIECES, SOMETIMES
SCALE-FREE
“What the Web has done to documents it is doing
to just about every institution it touches. The Web
isn't primarily about replacing atoms with bits so
that we can, for example, shop online or make our
supply chains more efficient…Rather, the Web is
changing our understanding of what puts things
together in the first place. We live in a world that
works well if the pieces are stable and have
predictable effects on one another. We think of
complex institutions and organizations as being
like well-oiled machines that work reliably and
almost serenely so long as their subordinate pieces
perform their designated tasks. Then we go on the
Web, and the pieces are so loosely joined that
frequently the links don't work; all too often we
get the message “404!”
But, that's ok because the Web gets its value not
from the smoothness of its overall operation but
from its abundance of small nuggets that point to
more small nuggets.”
35
“The Internet
consists of Small
Pieces, Loosely
Joined.”
— DAVID WEINBERGER
35
50. INVENT AS LITTLE
AS POSSIBLE
DESIGN
FOR CHEAP
MODULARITY
HUMANS +
MACHINES >
HUMANS OR
MACHINES
51. INVENT AS LITTLE
AS POSSIBLE
DESIGN
FOR CHEAP
MODULARITY
HUMANS +
MACHINES >
HUMANS OR
MACHINES
THERE ARE
THREE SCALES
OF BIG DESIGN
DESIGN
SMALL PIECES,
LOOSELY JOINED
RESPECT
THE IOT
WELL CURVE
56. YOU’RE ONLY AS GOOD
AS YOUR WORST
DESIGN DECISION
www.arstechnica.com 44
REMOTELINK DATA
An example of decrypted
RemoteLink data captured
by OwnStar, from Kamkar's
DefCon presentation.
57. NO MATTER WHAT,
IT WILL BE HACKED
45
There have been an increasing
number of safety critical hacks
of production vehicles. This
one resulted in more than 1
Million Jeeps being recalled.
“Hackers
remotely kill
a Jeep on the
highway.”
— ANDY GREENBERG
Source: Wired
63. THE WORLD IS
GETTING WEIRDER
50
DESPITE BILLIONS SPENT ON
SAFETY AND SECURITY, THERE
REALLY IS NO WAY TO STOP
A PILOT FROM INTENTIONALLY
CRASHING A PLANE.
50Source: stevecoast.com
64. THERE ARE
THREE SCALES
OF BIG DESIGN
INVENT AS LITTLE
AS POSSIBLE
DESIGN
FOR CHEAP
MODULARITY
DESIGN
SMALL PIECES,
LOOSELY JOINED
HUMANS +
MACHINES >
HUMANS OR
MACHINES
RESPECT
THE IOT
WELL CURVE
65. THERE ARE
THREE SCALES
OF BIG DESIGN
INVENT AS LITTLE
AS POSSIBLE
DESIGN
FOR CHEAP
MODULARITY
DESIGN
SMALL PIECES,
LOOSELY JOINED
DESIGN FOR
BAD DESIGN
DESIGN
FOR FAILURE
DESIGN FOR
FAT TAILS &
WEIRDNESS
HUMANS +
MACHINES >
HUMANS OR
MACHINES
RESPECT
THE IOT
WELL CURVE
70. CREATE
EXPERIENCES
56
BUILDING
NEW PRODUCTS
& SERVICES
What needs and desires
are we trying to address?
UNDERSTANDING
THE IMPACT OF NEW
TECHNOLOGIES
What do we need to understand
and when? How do we react?
New products
and services create
new behaviors
A better understanding
of needs and desires
can validate decisions
81. ORGANIZED FOR
EXPERIENCE?
Which company is better organized
to create the best experiences?
Who can introduce new services
and products, or pivot quickly
to change existing ones?
62Source: Internet Meme
82. ORGANIZED FOR
EXPERIENCE?
“Schiller’s Marketing function includes
product marketing by product line, but these
are not business ownership roles…there is
no “head of devices” or “head of iPhone”…
Product is a “horizontal” responsibility
for which every function is partially
responsible.”
“When seen in
this light, the first
observation is that
there is no ‘product
business’ ownership.”
—HORACE DEDIU, ASYMCO
CEO
HR Marketing
- Schiller
Design
- Ive
Technologies
- Mansfield
Internet SW
-Cue
Operations
HW
Engineering
-Riccio
Legal
NA Sales
Int. Sales
Communications
Retail
Finance
-Oppenheimer
SW
Engineering
-Federighi
SUSTAIN
DISRUPT
63Source: asymco.com
83. DESIGN FOR
BAD DESIGN
THERE ARE
THREE SCALES
OF BIG DESIGN
INVENT AS LITTLE
AS POSSIBLE
DESIGN
FOR FAILURE
DESIGN
FOR CHEAP
MODULARITY
DESIGN
SMALL PIECES,
LOOSELY JOINED
DESIGN FOR
FAT TAILS &
WEIRDNESS
HUMANS +
MACHINES >
HUMANS OR
MACHINES
RESPECT
THE IOT
WELL CURVE
84. DESIGN FOR
BAD DESIGN
THERE ARE
THREE SCALES
OF BIG DESIGN
INVENT AS LITTLE
AS POSSIBLE
DESIGN
FOR FAILURE
DESIGN
FOR CHEAP
MODULARITY
DESIGN
SMALL PIECES,
LOOSELY JOINED
DESIGN FOR
FAT TAILS &
WEIRDNESS
HUMANS +
MACHINES >
HUMANS OR
MACHINES
RESPECT
THE IOT
WELL CURVE
DON’T JUST
MAKE THINGS
CREATE ANCHOR
POINTS
ORGANIZE FOR
EXPERIENCE