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Virtual Goods in Asia
The US Gold Rush Begins
Benjamin Joffe | CEO, Plus Eight Star
Virtual Goods Summit, San Francisco | 2009.10
Chinese family in Oregon during the Gold Rush
ベンジャミン
本杰明
벤자민
Benjamin Joffe
Virtual Goods in Asia
4 years
1 year
4 years
Consulting | Startups | Community
| Plus Eight Star
• “Innovation Arbitrage”
• Internet & Mobile Digital strategy
• Best practices from China, Japan & Korea
• Published reports
• Inside Cyworld (2007)
• Inside Tencent (2009)
• Inside Alibaba (upcoming)
• Contact
• www.plus8star.com
Work With Startups
• Newt Games
• Mobile SNS in 2003 in Japan
– 3G, GPS, avatars, virtual items
• Too early!
• Cmune
• Making the 3D Web happen
– fbFund winner
– First 3D FPS game on Facebook
– #1 Widget on Apple.com
– Virtual Goods
– www.cmune.com
Virtual Goods in Asia
31 events
111 speakers
3,500 members
1,500 companies
Mobile Monday Beijing
Let’sbegin
The Plan
1. Introduction
2. Virtual Worlds
3. Social Networks
4. Social Games
5. Online Games
6. Others things
7. Innovation Arbitrage
8. Questions?
Chapter 1
Introduction
Virtual Goods Big in Asia
Quoted in this article
Virtual Goods Big in Asia
Quoted in this article
5 Billion Dollars!
(25 times USA!)
Asia’s Virtual Goods Market Estimate for 2008
Internet
1.3 billion
Mobile
3.3 billion
Source: Morgan Stanley, 2007
Digital Population
Country USA China Japan Korea
Population 300 mln 1,300 mln 130 mln 50 mln
Internet users 225 mln 340 mln 100 mln 35 mln
Mobile users 260 mln 650 mln 100 mln 45 mln
x 5
Total x 2
x 3
IT Infrastructure
3G
users
% of Internet connections measured above 5Mbps
(Source: Akamai, 4Q08)
C
hi
n
a
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
www.plus8star.com
Avg. 15 Mbps
Avg. 7 Mbps
Avg. 4 Mbps
Comparison Hack for US Market?
1. Adjust with GDP/Capita
• Japan = x1.2 | Korea = x2.4 | China ~ x10
• (Avg. income of web user in China $400/month)
Comparison Hack for US Market?
1. Adjust with GDP/Capita
• Japan = x1.2 | Korea = x2.4 | China ~ x10
• (Avg. income of web user in China $400/month)
2. Adjust with Internet (or Mobile) Population
• Japan = x2.5 | China = x2/3 | Korea = x5
Formulas
$100M in Japan  $300M in US
$100M in China  $700M in US
$100M in Korea  $1.2B in US
Online Games in China
$3.5 to $4 bln in 2009
3Q09 | $1 bln
>40% CAGR
(Most of it from virtual goods)
Quick Calculation
• China
• $3 to $4 bln market
• 10 Chinese online game companies on NASDAQ
• Tencent = $1 bln in revenue (2008)
• Japan
• 3 Social networks market-listed in Japan for over $1 bln
• 2 are 100% mobile with >50% revenue from VG
• Korea
• Popularized the free-to-play model
• $1 bln online gaming market, mostly VG
Asia: 7 Billion Dollars!
USA: $1 bln (Source: Inside Virtual Goods, Oct 2009)
Sharks with Laser Beams vs. Irritated Sea Bass
Asia’s Virtual Goods Market Estimate for 2009
Asia: 7 Billion Dollars!
USA: $1 bln (Source: Inside Virtual Goods, Oct 2009)
US market potential
3~35 Billion Dollars?
Sharks with Laser Beams vs. Irritated Sea Bass
Asia’s Virtual Goods Market Estimate for 2009
Techno-Paleonthology
The Origins of Virtual Goods
– “It was invented in China”
– US investor about virtual goods in SNS (2009)
– “China learned from Korea”
– Chinese online gaming executive (2007)
– “Korea learned from the US”
– Former exec at virtual world company (2002)
Researchers are Puzzled
Peking Man
+8* Research
• Asia first place where virtual goods reached
over US$1 billion
• (If you except the US stock market )
• Online communities since the mid-80’s
• Some services included virtual goods
• Same ideas often found independently “when
the time is right”
• “Techno-Darwinism” vs. “The Inventor Myth”
Revenue Scale
• Online games x $1,000 million
• Social networks x $100 million
• Virtual worlds x $10 million
x10
x10
BUT
• It’s converging
• Categories make less and less sense
• (and “virtual” is a misnomer)
Chapter 2
Virtual Worlds
“Leading” Virtual Worlds
• Japan
– 3D…
– AMEBA PIGG
– NICOTTO TOWN
– POUPEE GIRL
• Korea
– PUPPYRED
– CYWORLD 3D
– NURIEN
– MAPLE STORY
• China
– 3D…
– QQ PET
– OTHERS
3D
Japan
Internet
Adventure
(by SEGA)
Meet-me
Virtual Goods in Asia
Virtual Goods in Asia
PS3 “Home”
25 million Xbox 360
consoles getting
software upgrade?
South Korea
Virtual Goods in Asia
Virtual Goods in Asia
Virtual Goods in Asia
Virtual Goods in Asia
China
Virtual Goods in Asia
Virtual Goods in Asia
Virtual Goods in Asia
Virtual Goods in Asia
(60% Made in China)
Virtual Goods in Asia
Conclusions
• Emerging
• Pure virtual world = Not Fun?
2D
Japan
Pigg
(by Ameba)
(by SquareEnix)
Poupee Girl
(by CyberAgent)
South Korea
Virtual Goods in Asia
China
Virtual Goods in Asia
Virtual Goods in Asia
Virtual Goods in Asia
Virtual Goods in Asia
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mainly Second
Life adaptations
Gaming
virtual
worlds
Variety of
concepts and
revenue models
2D
worlds
2D dating
Conclusions
• Easier than 3D
• More fun, but still…
• Growing
Chapter 3
Social Networks
Leading Social Networks
• Japan
– MIXI
– GREE
– MOBILE GAME TOWN (DENA)
– NANI SURU?
• Korea
– CYWORLD
• China
– QQ (Tencent)
– RENREN (ex-XIAONEI)
– KAIXIN001
– 51.COM
Revenue vs. Profit
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Profit
Margin
Million USD
South Korea
Virtual Goods in Asia
Japan
Mixi
Mobile Game Town
Source: DeNA
Gree
Gree Home
Advertising
Avatars & items
Games
Advertising &
Affiliates | 25%
B2C virtual
goods | 75%
60% avatars
40% games
Virtual Goods in Asia
Virtual Goods in Asia
Virtual Goods in Asia
Niche mobile SNS appearing
Nani suru? (What are you doing?)
China
The Facebook Tributes
“With enough marketing, the copy becomes the real”
Conclusions
• Mobile making hundreds of millions!
• Mobile and Web are not the same
• Games, Games, Games
• Lots to learn from Asia!
Chapter 4
Social Games
Virtual Goods in Asia
Quiz: Who Created the First
Farming Game?
• Game MAU Dev. Country
• FarmVille 61.6M Zynga USA
• Farm Town 18.6M Slashkey USA
• Country Story 8.1M Playfish UK
• Barn Buddy 6.8M TheBroth USA
• Happy Farm 2.5M 5 Minutes China
• Happy Harvest .6M Elex China
Source: Appdata and Facebook, 2009.10.26
Answer: It’s Complicated
• Current guess (comments welcome):
1. Five Minutes? (China)
2. Zynga (US)
3. Elex (China, US, EU)
• Slashkey? TheBroth? PlayFish?
The Mother of all Farming Games?
or “where is the innovation?”
• I thought Harvest Moon
was possibly the first…
• By Victor Interactive (1996) On
Nintendo’s Super NES
• …but a reader found Sim Farm
• Maxis, 1993 
• Where is the innovation?
• Not in the concept, but in gaming,
viral and social mechanics
Social Games Going West
• Facebook Developers: Low Entry Barrier!
Rank Company Apps Location
#7 6 Waves 104 apps Hong Kong
#30 Rekoo 2 apps Beijing
#36 Elex 7 apps Beijing
#229 Tyler Projects 1 app Singapore
• Strong in China & entering Russia, Japan, etc.
Social Games Going East Too?
Quotes from Elex
• High productivity
– “Anyone is able to develop social games at
Playfish level”
• 12 languages versions
– “We can localize our game in different language
versions in 1 day”
Conclusion
• Aggressive teams
• “Ramen Profitability” reachable
• Execution >> Creativity
• Can you compete? I’m loving it!
Chapter 5
Online Games
Quiz!
What is this game?
Virtual Goods in Asia
Kingdom of the Wind (Nexon, 1996)
Business Model Evolutions
• First wave: Packaged Software
• First issue: Piracy
Business Model Evolutions
• First wave: Packaged Software
• First issue: Piracy
• Second wave: Online + Subscriptions
• Second issue: Competition / Game as a Service
Business Model Evolutions
• First wave: Packaged Software
• First issue: Piracy
• Second wave: Online + Subscriptions
• Second issue: Competition / Game as a Service
• Third wave: Virtual Goods
• Third issue: User Acquisition / Balancing Economy
Third Wave: Korea
• Online + Virtual Goods
SuperMarioKart Kart Rider
Business Model Evolutions
• First wave: Packaged Software
• First issue: Piracy
• Second wave: Online + Subscriptions
• Second issue: Competition / Game as a Service
• Third wave: Virtual Goods
• Third issue: User Acquisition / Balancing Economy
• Fourth wave: Social Games
• Fourth issue: Competition again!
Social Games
• Stand-alone to Social Game
Chinese Online Games Companies
• Listed on NASDAQ
• NETEASE NTES $4.82B
• SHANDA SNDA $3.11B
• SHANDA GAMES GAME $2.75B
• PERFECT WORLD PWRD $2.25B
• CHANGYOU CYOU $1.65B
• GIANT INTERACTIVE GA $1.71B
• Listed on HKSE
• TENCENT 3888 $34.3B
• NET DRAGON 0777 $0.34B
• KINGSOFT 0700 $1.07B
Total Market Cap
• And the total is…
• 8 Gaming Companies $17.7 B
• Tencent $34.3B
• TOTAL $52.0B
• Comparables
• Activision Blizzard $14.1B
• Electronic Arts $6.05B
• Ubisoft $1.56B
• Take Two $0.94B
• TOTAL $22.6B
Tencent
Up and To The Right!
Revenue & Profit
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0 50 100 150 200 250
Note: The net margin/profit value used for Tencent game and NetEase is the one of the whole company, 2008
+8* | www.plus8star.com
Revenue (mln USD)
Bubble size = Net Profit (mln USD)
Profit
Margin
Remaining Barriers in the West
• Payment infra
– Getting better
• Legacy industry (packaged software)
– In transition
• Electronic Arts
– Revenue 1.2 billion USD
– Profit margin (-30%)
Battlefield by Electronic Arts
When we started two years ago, there
was a real question mark: Can the free-
to-play model work as it did in Asia?
The answer is an emphatic yes.
Ben Cousins
General manager
Battlefield Heroes team
Electronic Arts
Better hurry!
Asian Online Games Going West
Conclusions
Are we so Different?
Conclusions
It’s going to change FAST
Get on the bus!
Chapter 6
One More Thing!
Mobile Open Platforms
Mixi: Oct 27, 2009
– 39 mobile applications released – mostly games
City Building
By Liveware
Harvest Moon
By Liveware
Shopkeeper
By Geisha Tokyo
Furauni
By Konami
Virtual Currencies in any
Online Media
• HoopChina
– Basket-Ball vertical
– 90% UGC
– E-commerce
– Virtual currency
“CA” (for “calorie”)
earned via activity
– Web games
PORTAL ONLINE STORE
WEB GAMES
Evolutions
3D Social Games? Cross-Platform Games?
Artist’s view of
3D Farming Game
Most Advanced 3D Game on FB
Paradise Paintball by Cmune
http://apps.facebook.com/paradisepaintball/
Disclosure: I am an investor & partner of Cmune
Chapter 7
Innovation Arbitrage
When was it invented?
Europe
Gutemberg | ~1450
Korea
Metal | ~1230
China
Wooden | ~1040
Who came first?
Virtual Goods in Asia
Principle
• Identifying best practices
• Cross-market & Cross-cultural analysis
• Adaptation to client market
References
EUROPE USA
ASIA
Stimulus Package
For All VGS Attendees until Nov 10!
• 25% off our research on Tencent & Cyworld!
• Inside Tencent (2009)
– 280 pages
– US$5,000 US$3,750
• Inside Cyworld (2007)
– 180 pages
– US$2,000 US$1,500
Chapter 8
Questions?
More about “Innovation Arbitrage”
Thanks!
www.plus8star.com
benjamin@plus8star.com
benjamin0123
http://twitter.com/plus8star
www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminjoffe
www.slideshare.net/plus8star
+81 | Japan
+82 | Korea
+86 | China
Telecom & Internet
+ Added Value
* High quality

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