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Evalua&on	
  of	
  fuels	
  
                                  A	
  systems	
  perspec&ve

                                           Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs



                                        Ins2tu2onen	
  för	
  Teknikens	
  ekonomi	
  och	
  organisa2on
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs                Avdelningen	
  för	
  logis2k	
  och	
  transport
1900




                                    Housing	
  (7	
  m2	
  per	
  person)
                                         Food	
  (self	
  sufficient)
                                                                                             Posessons
                 Housing	
  (47	
  m2	
  per	
  person)                                                                                        Mountainbike
          Food	
  (import,	
  exo&c	
  fruits	
  etc.)
                                                                                                   2011                                        Car
                                     Skiing	
  equipment                                                                                       Air	
  travels
                                   Surfing	
  equipment                                                                                         Food	
  processor
                                                   Computer                                                                                    Electric	
  stove
                                                     Camera                                                                                    Microwave	
  oven
                                                             TV                                                                                Dishwasher
                                       Satellite	
  receiver                                                                                   Refridgerator/freezer
                                                          DVD                                                                                  Washing	
  machine
                                                        Video                                                                                  Summer	
  house
                                            Mobile	
  phone                                                                                    Video	
  games
                                                   Telephone                Ins2tu2onen	
  för	
  Teknikens	
  ekonomi	
  och	
  organisa2on   Lawn	
  mower
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs Naturvårdsverket
            Källa,	
  delvis:	
                                                    Avdelningen	
  för	
  logis2k	
  och	
  transport
Problem	
  areas
                                                                                    Energy
Environment
                                                                                    Supply
                                      Ins2tu2onen	
  för	
  Teknikens	
  ekonomi	
  och	
  organisa2on
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs              Avdelningen	
  för	
  logis2k	
  och	
  transport
Demands	
  on	
  alterna&ve	
  fuels

    Low	
  environmental	
  
                  impact                                                                          Cost	
  neutral

        High	
  energy	
  content
                                                                                                          Renewable

                                                                                          Accessibility
                     Sufficient	
  volumes

                                       Ins2tu2onen	
  för	
  Teknikens	
  ekonomi	
  och	
  organisa2on
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs               Avdelningen	
  för	
  logis2k	
  och	
  transport
Which	
  fuel	
  is	
  best?
                            100


                                  75

                                                                                                                          CO2
                                  50                                                                                      NOx
                                                                                                                          Par2cles
                                   25

                                       0

                                           Fuel	
  A                                                       Fuel	
  B


                                                       Ins2tu2onen	
  för	
  Teknikens	
  ekonomi	
  och	
  organisa2on
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs                               Avdelningen	
  för	
  logis2k	
  och	
  transport
Systems	
  perspec&ve
                      Comparing	
  fuels	
  is	
  complex


                                  A	
  systems	
  perspec&ve	
  is	
  needed

                                                                        From	
  a	
  user	
  viewpoint,	
  
                                                                        several	
  different	
  demands	
  
                                                                        need	
  to	
  MEET	
  


                                          Ins2tu2onen	
  för	
  Teknikens	
  ekonomi	
  och	
  organisa2on
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs                  Avdelningen	
  för	
  logis2k	
  och	
  transport
MEET-­‐model
                                  MONEY
                                  ENVIRONMENT
                                  ETHICS
                                  TECHNOLOGY
                                     Ins2tu2onen	
  för	
  Teknikens	
  ekonomi	
  och	
  organisa2on
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs             Avdelningen	
  för	
  logis2k	
  och	
  transport
MONEY
   ENVIRONMENT


                                    Monetary	
  factors
   ETHICS
   TECHNOLOGY




                      Cost	
  per	
  km
                                                                                                                    Investment	
  cost

                        Supply	
  op&ons	
  (several	
  fuel	
  suppliers)
                                                                                                             Maintenance	
  cost
                            Filling	
  infrastructure
                                                                               Second-­‐hand	
  value	
  of	
  vehicle
                              Economic	
  life-­‐span	
  of	
  vehicle
                                                 Ins2tu2onen	
  för	
  Teknikens	
  ekonomi	
  och	
  organisa2on
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs                         Avdelningen	
  för	
  logis2k	
  och	
  transport
Environmental	
  
   MONEY
   ENVIRONMENT
   ETHICS
   TECHNOLOGY

                                             proper&es	
  of	
  fuels
                                                                          Displacement	
  effects
                                                                          The	
  raw	
  material	
  can	
  be	
  needed	
  elsewhere

                                   Renewability
                                                                                                      Local	
  environmental	
  
                                                                                                      effects	
  in	
  produc&on
   Degradability	
  on	
  leakages	
  and	
  spills
                                                                                 Emissions	
  when	
  
                                                                                 combus&ng,	
  manufacturing,	
  
                                  Toxicity                                       transpor&ng	
  and	
  handling	
  
                                                                                 the	
  fuel Hydro	
  carbons,	
  Sulphur	
  etc.
                                                                                 CO2,	
  NOx,	
  Par&cles,	
  

                                                                                                              hMp://aworldofprogress.com/wp-­‐content/uploads/2010/01/environment.jpg
                                                 Ins2tu2onen	
  för	
  Teknikens	
  ekonomi	
  och	
  organisa2on
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs                         Avdelningen	
  för	
  logis2k	
  och	
  transport
MONEY
   ENVIRONMENT
   ETHICS
   TECHNOLOGY
                                    Ethical	
  factors	
  influencing	
  
                                          fuel	
  selec&on
                            Correct	
  marke&ng

                                                                                             Origin	
  of	
  raw	
  material
                                  Regional	
  effects


                        Social	
  effects	
  of	
  produc&on,	
   Displacement	
  effects
                             transport	
  and	
  handling

                                                Ins2tu2onen	
  för	
  Teknikens	
  ekonomi	
  och	
  organisa2on
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs                        Avdelningen	
  för	
  logis2k	
  och	
  transport
Technological	
  
   MONEY
   ENVIRONMENT
   ETHICS
   TECHNOLOGY

                                           proper&es	
  of	
  fuels
                                  Standardised	
  specifica&on
                                                                                                                     Heat	
  value
                    Aggrega&on	
  state	
  (liquid,	
  solid,	
  gas)

                                                                   Agression/corrosion/oxida&on
                             Temperature	
  proper&es
                                                                                       Lubrica&on	
  proper&es
                                  Engine	
  technology

                                                  Ins2tu2onen	
  för	
  Teknikens	
  ekonomi	
  och	
  organisa2on
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs                          Avdelningen	
  för	
  logis2k	
  och	
  transport
MONEY


                                  Prerequisites	
  for	
  
   ENVIRONMENT
   ETHICS
   TECHNOLOGY




                                     es&ma&on
  Comparison	
  with	
  standard	
  diesel	
  (Mk1)

                                                       Deprecia&on	
  &me	
  for	
  a	
  
                                                       heavy	
  vehicle	
  is	
  5-­‐8	
  years
      Deprecia&on	
  &me	
  for	
  a	
  
       heavy	
  duty	
  machine	
  is	
  
                    10-­‐16	
  years
                                                             No	
  changes	
  in	
  tax	
  regula&ons
                                       Ins2tu2onen	
  för	
  Teknikens	
  ekonomi	
  och	
  organisa2on
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs               Avdelningen	
  för	
  logis2k	
  och	
  transport
MONEY
   ENVIRONMENT
   ETHICS
   TECHNOLOGY
                                               Example	
  of	
  
                                               comparison
                                  Money          Environment                                                 Ethics                       Technology
                   Investment	
  cost           CO2                                              Origin                               Heat	
  value
                   Maintenance	
  cost          NOx                                              Displacement	
  effects               Engine	
  technology
                                                                                                                              	
  ?
                   Second-­‐hand	
  value    ? Par2cles
                                               ?                                          ? Social	
  effects                          Lubrica2on

                   Economic	
  life-­‐span   ? Degradable
                                               ?                                                 Regional	
  effects                   Temperature

                   Infrastructure               Renewable                                        Correct	
  marke2ng          	
  ?   Corrosiveness

                   Supply                       Displacement	
  effects                    ?                                           Solid/Fluid/Gaseous    F
                   Cost/km                      Toxicity                                                                              Stand.	
  spec.


                        BeMer	
  compared	
  to	
  MK	
  1
                        Worse	
  compared	
  to	
  MK	
  1
                        Equal
                      ? No	
  data

                                                           Ins2tu2onen	
  för	
  Teknikens	
  ekonomi	
  och	
  organisa2on
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs                                   Avdelningen	
  för	
  logis2k	
  och	
  transport
Renewable	
  fuels
                                      Vegetabilic	
  oME              il
                                         FAME,	
  for	
  example	
  R                                                               Biogas
                                                                                                                                    Methane,	
  CH₄
        FLUIDS




                                                                                                                                                            GASES
                                   Methanol
                                        CH₃OH
                                                                                                                                         DME
                                                                                                                                         Dimetyl	
  ether


                                     Ethanol
                                         C₂H₅OH




                                                                                                                                         Hydrogen
                                  Synthe&c	
  Diesel
                                                                                                                                         H₂
                                                                                  Image:	
  Aspen	
  petroleum

                                   Synthe&c	
  hydrocarbons	
  (FT-­‐diesel)


                                                                 Ins2tu2onen	
  för	
  Teknikens	
  ekonomi	
  och	
  organisa2on
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs                                         Avdelningen	
  för	
  logis2k	
  och	
  transport
Short	
  term,	
  5-­‐10	
  years
                                      Pine	
  oil	
  


                                                                                                                           Synthe&c	
  diesel


                              RME/FAME	
  (<	
  10%)
                                                                                                                           Electric	
  hybrids
                                                                                                                           Addi&on	
  engine
                                                                                                                           Power	
  source	
  for	
  equipment




                                                        Ins2tu2onen	
  för	
  Teknikens	
  ekonomi	
  och	
  organisa2on
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs                                Avdelningen	
  för	
  logis2k	
  och	
  transport
Long	
  term,	
  10-­‐20	
  years
                                      DME
                                   Dimetyl	
  ether                                                                      Methanol


                                  Biogas

                                                                                                                Hydrogen?
                                               MDE
                                  Methane	
  Diesel	
  Engine




                                                          Ins2tu2onen	
  för	
  Teknikens	
  ekonomi	
  och	
  organisa2on
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs                                  Avdelningen	
  för	
  logis2k	
  och	
  transport
Four	
  strategies	
  to	
  reduce	
  the	
  
  environmental	
  footprint	
  of	
  transporta&on
                                                         Use	
  less	
  fuel
                                                         Educa&on
                                                         Feedback/follow-­‐up	
  system



                                                                                                            U&lise	
  vehicles	
  more	
  efficiently
                                                                                                                                                  Planning	
  systems
                                                                                                                     Informa&on	
  sharing	
  throughout	
  the	
  chain



                                  Use	
  alterna&ve	
  sources	
  of	
  energy
                                  Limited	
  availability
                                  Warran&es	
  from	
  engine	
  manufacturers




                                                                                              Reduce	
  distances	
  in	
  &me
                                                                                                                         Resolve	
  conges&on
                                                                                                                Use	
  low-­‐intensity	
  periods
                                                                                                               Redirect	
  traffic	
  dynamically


                                             Image:	
  Aspen	
  Petroleum
                                                                            Ins2tu2onen	
  för	
  Teknikens	
  ekonomi	
  och	
  organisa2on
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs                                                    Avdelningen	
  för	
  logis2k	
  och	
  transport
Filling	
  sta&on	
  of	
  the	
  future




                        TRB	
  1994

                                      Ins2tu2onen	
  för	
  Teknikens	
  ekonomi	
  och	
  organisa2on
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs              Avdelningen	
  för	
  logis2k	
  och	
  transport
Thank	
  you
                                      Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs
                                  about.me/perolofarnas




                                     Ins2tu2onen	
  för	
  Teknikens	
  ekonomi	
  och	
  organisa2on
CC-­‐BY	
  Per	
  Olof	
  Arnäs             Avdelningen	
  för	
  logis2k	
  och	
  transport

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Evaluation of fuels - a systems perspective

  • 1. Evalua&on  of  fuels   A  systems  perspec&ve Per  Olof  Arnäs Ins2tu2onen  för  Teknikens  ekonomi  och  organisa2on CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Avdelningen  för  logis2k  och  transport
  • 2. 1900 Housing  (7  m2  per  person) Food  (self  sufficient) Posessons Housing  (47  m2  per  person) Mountainbike Food  (import,  exo&c  fruits  etc.) 2011 Car Skiing  equipment Air  travels Surfing  equipment Food  processor Computer Electric  stove Camera Microwave  oven TV Dishwasher Satellite  receiver Refridgerator/freezer DVD Washing  machine Video Summer  house Mobile  phone Video  games Telephone Ins2tu2onen  för  Teknikens  ekonomi  och  organisa2on Lawn  mower CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Naturvårdsverket Källa,  delvis:   Avdelningen  för  logis2k  och  transport
  • 3. Problem  areas Energy Environment Supply Ins2tu2onen  för  Teknikens  ekonomi  och  organisa2on CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Avdelningen  för  logis2k  och  transport
  • 4. Demands  on  alterna&ve  fuels Low  environmental   impact Cost  neutral High  energy  content Renewable Accessibility Sufficient  volumes Ins2tu2onen  för  Teknikens  ekonomi  och  organisa2on CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Avdelningen  för  logis2k  och  transport
  • 5. Which  fuel  is  best? 100 75 CO2 50 NOx Par2cles 25 0 Fuel  A Fuel  B Ins2tu2onen  för  Teknikens  ekonomi  och  organisa2on CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Avdelningen  för  logis2k  och  transport
  • 6. Systems  perspec&ve Comparing  fuels  is  complex A  systems  perspec&ve  is  needed From  a  user  viewpoint,   several  different  demands   need  to  MEET   Ins2tu2onen  för  Teknikens  ekonomi  och  organisa2on CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Avdelningen  för  logis2k  och  transport
  • 7. MEET-­‐model MONEY ENVIRONMENT ETHICS TECHNOLOGY Ins2tu2onen  för  Teknikens  ekonomi  och  organisa2on CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Avdelningen  för  logis2k  och  transport
  • 8. MONEY ENVIRONMENT Monetary  factors ETHICS TECHNOLOGY Cost  per  km Investment  cost Supply  op&ons  (several  fuel  suppliers) Maintenance  cost Filling  infrastructure Second-­‐hand  value  of  vehicle Economic  life-­‐span  of  vehicle Ins2tu2onen  för  Teknikens  ekonomi  och  organisa2on CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Avdelningen  för  logis2k  och  transport
  • 9. Environmental   MONEY ENVIRONMENT ETHICS TECHNOLOGY proper&es  of  fuels Displacement  effects The  raw  material  can  be  needed  elsewhere Renewability Local  environmental   effects  in  produc&on Degradability  on  leakages  and  spills Emissions  when   combus&ng,  manufacturing,   Toxicity transpor&ng  and  handling   the  fuel Hydro  carbons,  Sulphur  etc. CO2,  NOx,  Par&cles,   hMp://aworldofprogress.com/wp-­‐content/uploads/2010/01/environment.jpg Ins2tu2onen  för  Teknikens  ekonomi  och  organisa2on CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Avdelningen  för  logis2k  och  transport
  • 10. MONEY ENVIRONMENT ETHICS TECHNOLOGY Ethical  factors  influencing   fuel  selec&on Correct  marke&ng Origin  of  raw  material Regional  effects Social  effects  of  produc&on,   Displacement  effects transport  and  handling Ins2tu2onen  för  Teknikens  ekonomi  och  organisa2on CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Avdelningen  för  logis2k  och  transport
  • 11. Technological   MONEY ENVIRONMENT ETHICS TECHNOLOGY proper&es  of  fuels Standardised  specifica&on Heat  value Aggrega&on  state  (liquid,  solid,  gas) Agression/corrosion/oxida&on Temperature  proper&es Lubrica&on  proper&es Engine  technology Ins2tu2onen  för  Teknikens  ekonomi  och  organisa2on CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Avdelningen  för  logis2k  och  transport
  • 12. MONEY Prerequisites  for   ENVIRONMENT ETHICS TECHNOLOGY es&ma&on Comparison  with  standard  diesel  (Mk1) Deprecia&on  &me  for  a   heavy  vehicle  is  5-­‐8  years Deprecia&on  &me  for  a   heavy  duty  machine  is   10-­‐16  years No  changes  in  tax  regula&ons Ins2tu2onen  för  Teknikens  ekonomi  och  organisa2on CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Avdelningen  för  logis2k  och  transport
  • 13. MONEY ENVIRONMENT ETHICS TECHNOLOGY Example  of   comparison Money Environment Ethics Technology Investment  cost CO2 Origin Heat  value Maintenance  cost NOx Displacement  effects Engine  technology  ? Second-­‐hand  value ? Par2cles ? ? Social  effects Lubrica2on Economic  life-­‐span ? Degradable ? Regional  effects Temperature Infrastructure Renewable Correct  marke2ng  ? Corrosiveness Supply Displacement  effects ? Solid/Fluid/Gaseous F Cost/km Toxicity Stand.  spec. BeMer  compared  to  MK  1 Worse  compared  to  MK  1 Equal ? No  data Ins2tu2onen  för  Teknikens  ekonomi  och  organisa2on CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Avdelningen  för  logis2k  och  transport
  • 14. Renewable  fuels Vegetabilic  oME il FAME,  for  example  R Biogas Methane,  CH₄ FLUIDS GASES Methanol CH₃OH DME Dimetyl  ether Ethanol C₂H₅OH Hydrogen Synthe&c  Diesel H₂ Image:  Aspen  petroleum Synthe&c  hydrocarbons  (FT-­‐diesel) Ins2tu2onen  för  Teknikens  ekonomi  och  organisa2on CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Avdelningen  för  logis2k  och  transport
  • 15. Short  term,  5-­‐10  years Pine  oil   Synthe&c  diesel RME/FAME  (<  10%) Electric  hybrids Addi&on  engine Power  source  for  equipment Ins2tu2onen  för  Teknikens  ekonomi  och  organisa2on CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Avdelningen  för  logis2k  och  transport
  • 16. Long  term,  10-­‐20  years DME Dimetyl  ether Methanol Biogas Hydrogen? MDE Methane  Diesel  Engine Ins2tu2onen  för  Teknikens  ekonomi  och  organisa2on CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Avdelningen  för  logis2k  och  transport
  • 17. Four  strategies  to  reduce  the   environmental  footprint  of  transporta&on Use  less  fuel Educa&on Feedback/follow-­‐up  system U&lise  vehicles  more  efficiently Planning  systems Informa&on  sharing  throughout  the  chain Use  alterna&ve  sources  of  energy Limited  availability Warran&es  from  engine  manufacturers Reduce  distances  in  &me Resolve  conges&on Use  low-­‐intensity  periods Redirect  traffic  dynamically Image:  Aspen  Petroleum Ins2tu2onen  för  Teknikens  ekonomi  och  organisa2on CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Avdelningen  för  logis2k  och  transport
  • 18. Filling  sta&on  of  the  future TRB  1994 Ins2tu2onen  för  Teknikens  ekonomi  och  organisa2on CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Avdelningen  för  logis2k  och  transport
  • 19. Thank  you Per  Olof  Arnäs about.me/perolofarnas Ins2tu2onen  för  Teknikens  ekonomi  och  organisa2on CC-­‐BY  Per  Olof  Arnäs Avdelningen  för  logis2k  och  transport