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Measure Your Way to Success by Sephora’s
former Director of Product
www.productschool.com
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Management
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Meghan Cochran
Tonight’s Speaker
Product management is the discipline of
making changes likely to lead to success.
We measure
to understand
to guide
to inspire
to prove
to predict
to succeed
What we measure, and how we measure it,
will change our focus & our outcomes.
These days, we can measure almost
anything. Which metrics matter?
profit
margin
engagement
revenue
per user
Loyalty
Conversion Acquisition
USE lift unique visits
Shift from paid to organic
response time
lower churn
ACTIVE
USERS
Lifetime Value
Let’s take a brief moment to talk about
correlation & causality...
We have two variables, A & B.
Correlation
A & B move together historically
Causality
Change in A causes a change in B
Sometimes, it can be hard to tell the difference...
An online retail store has seen a seasonal dip in
January sales for the last three years.
The team decides to run a site-wide sale &
email campaign Jan 15-18, investing heavily in
compelling creative and messaging.
It’s a disaster: Email click rates are flat & sales
dip even lower than historical seasonality.
The team is surprised and disappointed.
They scrap the creative direction.
Purchases x% y%
First, we need to
understand our
FUNNEL
series of
repeatable
actions leading to
observed action
Success = purchases
Click
#
%
%
%
Customers
Visit the site
Engage with site
Make purchase
Purchases x% y%
Clicks
Site visits
Engagement a% b%
There are two
levers in a
FUNNEL
(1) Increase volume
(2) Improve conversion rates
Click
Visit the site
Engage with site
Make purchase
#
%
%
%
SEGMENTATION
provides insight
into how to move
those levers
Examine the data for variations by
- Source
- Demographics
- Date & time
- Content (ads, landing pages, etc)
Click on an ad
%
#
Communicate
outcomes
CONSISTENTLY
(1) We increased volume
Click
(2) We improved completion rates
# ↑ x%
% ↑ x%
% ↑ x%
% ↑ x%
Purchases # ↑ x%, with Revenue ↑ x%
Visit the site
Engage with site
Make purchase
COHORTS
Show variations
between groups
at the same stage
in the customer
lifecycle over time
Purchases made by new customers
Nov Dec Jan
# New 250,000 400,000 225,000
Click rate 10% 17% 11%
Engage rate 35% 64% 37%
Purchase rate 3% 5% 3%
# Purchases 263 1,920 275
LOCAL
metrics
Important, but not
actionable
without further
research
● User satisfaction
● Likelihood to recommend
● Search quality
● Page-level engagement
● Cost of acquisition
VALUES
v.
RATIOS
Values
● Specific volumes or amounts
● Show growth in absolute
terms
Ratios & percentages
● Relationships
● Comparisons over time
Search
QUALITY
For purchases with
source = search
Number of sales from top 5
Percent of sales from top 5
setting
GOALS
S pecific
M easurable
A chievable
R ealistic
T imebound
+M eaningful
Concerned about acquisition costs, the team
made a Q1 goal to double organic traffic.
The new content strategy worked.
Organic traffic & purchases doubled.
Cost of acquisition remained flat.
ORGANIC monthly Before After
Organic as % traffic 3.6% 4.3%
# Organic unique users 9,026 17,818
Conversion rate 0.13% 0.12%
Organic purchases 12 21
Product management is about creating change.
Metrics are the guideposts that help us ensure that
the changes we make are leading to the results we
want. They let us forecast, provide early warning
signals, and create incentives for action.
This talk is about designing good metrics, gaining
alignment among a broad range of stakeholders,
and communicating progress effectively. We'll
discuss the trade-offs of looking at rates & ratios vs
absolute numbers, and we'll talk about funnels,
cohorts, and other fascinating and exciting
measures of success.
Quotation attributed to W. Edwards Deming
Meghan Cochran
meghanpcochran@gmail.com
Product School - 10/4/17
Part-time Product Management Courses in
San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Los Angeles
and New York
www.productschool.com

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Measure Your Way to Success by Sephora's former Dir. of Product

  • 1. Measure Your Way to Success by Sephora’s former Director of Product www.productschool.com
  • 2. FREE INVITE Join 12,000+ Product Managers on productschool.com/slack-community
  • 6. Include @productschool and #prodmgmt at the end of your tweet Tweet to get a free ticket for our next Event!
  • 8.
  • 9. Product management is the discipline of making changes likely to lead to success.
  • 10. We measure to understand to guide to inspire to prove to predict to succeed
  • 11. What we measure, and how we measure it, will change our focus & our outcomes. These days, we can measure almost anything. Which metrics matter?
  • 12. profit margin engagement revenue per user Loyalty Conversion Acquisition USE lift unique visits Shift from paid to organic response time lower churn ACTIVE USERS Lifetime Value
  • 13.
  • 14. Let’s take a brief moment to talk about correlation & causality...
  • 15. We have two variables, A & B. Correlation A & B move together historically Causality Change in A causes a change in B Sometimes, it can be hard to tell the difference...
  • 16. An online retail store has seen a seasonal dip in January sales for the last three years. The team decides to run a site-wide sale & email campaign Jan 15-18, investing heavily in compelling creative and messaging. It’s a disaster: Email click rates are flat & sales dip even lower than historical seasonality. The team is surprised and disappointed. They scrap the creative direction.
  • 17.
  • 19. First, we need to understand our FUNNEL series of repeatable actions leading to observed action Success = purchases Click # % % % Customers Visit the site Engage with site Make purchase
  • 20. Purchases x% y% Clicks Site visits Engagement a% b%
  • 21. There are two levers in a FUNNEL (1) Increase volume (2) Improve conversion rates Click Visit the site Engage with site Make purchase # % % %
  • 22. SEGMENTATION provides insight into how to move those levers Examine the data for variations by - Source - Demographics - Date & time - Content (ads, landing pages, etc) Click on an ad % #
  • 23.
  • 24. Communicate outcomes CONSISTENTLY (1) We increased volume Click (2) We improved completion rates # ↑ x% % ↑ x% % ↑ x% % ↑ x% Purchases # ↑ x%, with Revenue ↑ x% Visit the site Engage with site Make purchase
  • 25.
  • 26. COHORTS Show variations between groups at the same stage in the customer lifecycle over time Purchases made by new customers Nov Dec Jan # New 250,000 400,000 225,000 Click rate 10% 17% 11% Engage rate 35% 64% 37% Purchase rate 3% 5% 3% # Purchases 263 1,920 275
  • 27. LOCAL metrics Important, but not actionable without further research ● User satisfaction ● Likelihood to recommend ● Search quality ● Page-level engagement ● Cost of acquisition
  • 28. VALUES v. RATIOS Values ● Specific volumes or amounts ● Show growth in absolute terms Ratios & percentages ● Relationships ● Comparisons over time
  • 29. Search QUALITY For purchases with source = search Number of sales from top 5 Percent of sales from top 5
  • 30. setting GOALS S pecific M easurable A chievable R ealistic T imebound +M eaningful
  • 31. Concerned about acquisition costs, the team made a Q1 goal to double organic traffic. The new content strategy worked. Organic traffic & purchases doubled. Cost of acquisition remained flat. ORGANIC monthly Before After Organic as % traffic 3.6% 4.3% # Organic unique users 9,026 17,818 Conversion rate 0.13% 0.12% Organic purchases 12 21
  • 32.
  • 33. Product management is about creating change. Metrics are the guideposts that help us ensure that the changes we make are leading to the results we want. They let us forecast, provide early warning signals, and create incentives for action. This talk is about designing good metrics, gaining alignment among a broad range of stakeholders, and communicating progress effectively. We'll discuss the trade-offs of looking at rates & ratios vs absolute numbers, and we'll talk about funnels, cohorts, and other fascinating and exciting measures of success. Quotation attributed to W. Edwards Deming Meghan Cochran meghanpcochran@gmail.com Product School - 10/4/17
  • 34. Part-time Product Management Courses in San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Los Angeles and New York www.productschool.com

Notas del editor

  1. When you checked in tonight, you got an email inviting you to join our slack community In that community, we have 12k product people who have come through different companies like google, facebook, uber Sharing information about events, job offers from our partner companies, and valuable online content Please check your email and join - it’s free
  2. In our PM Course, we teach how to build products and how to get a job as a software product manager All our classes are 2 months, part time, and compatible with full time jobs. We have two options, Tues/Thurs in the evening and Saturdays in the morning Instructors- are senior level product managers from companies like Google, FB, Uber, etc
  3. In addition to our PM class, we offer our Coding for Managers class Also two months and part time tailored for professionals who don’t come from a traditional engineering background The goal of this course is not to make you a software engineer, but to give you enough technical background to build a fully functional website and pass the technical interview
  4. Similar to our coding course, we also offer our Data Analytics for Managers Tailored for people who don’t have a technical background but to give them enough knowledge of analytics to become product managers Also two months, compatible with full time jobs The goal of the course is not to make you a data scientist, but to make you technical enough to understand web analytics, learn SQL, and machine learning concepts
  5. We are also live streaming our event to our online audience If you want to share, please tweet @productschool and #prodmgmt for a free ticket to our next event
  6. Sometimes it’s a few large changes, often it’s a large number of smaller one. The data will help determine the strategy.
  7. Incentives are powerful, and metrics are a very public form of pressure. What we measure, we will move. When we have too many metrics, we lose focus. When we have too few for too long, we can lose perspective.
  8. There are hundreds of metrics that *can* be important. But forget about all the noise and focus on clearly defining success. Example: flying a plane, pilot has dozens of dials to watch but the goal is landing the plane successfully - and there’s no dial for that.
  9. In business this is hard to separate - are sales higher this month because of the advertising? Or because of the change we made to merchandising?
  10. In business this is hard to separate - are sales higher this month because of the advertising? Or because of the change we made to merchandising?
  11. Let’s say you work in retail...
  12. A funnel is always a snapshot in time
  13. Now you can make estimations about impact to the business.
  14. Classic funnel is
  15. Segmentation is cutting the data by WHO is going through the funnel or by variations of the experience
  16. Now you can make estimations about impact to the business.
  17. Note that this is showing a new snapshot in time, using % increases to show the net change
  18. Now you can make estimations about impact to the business.
  19. This cohort is by month, but the cohorts can be any shared data - e.g. new vs returning for same month. Cohorts provide a meaningful comparison with actionable results. Here we see that we have made progress with the funnel even though the volume has been wildly variable.
  20. Like a smoke alarm, local metrics show variations in key business areas - but up or down doesn’t
  21. When local metrics go up or down, sometime more research is needed to understand what levers will move it. They are like a control panel, showing where to dig deeper.
  22. In business this is hard to separate - are sales higher this month because of the advertising? Or because of the change we made to merchandising?
  23. Stakeholders want to trust you to run your area - if they trust you to think clearly about the important metrics, they will trust you to make good decisions.