This document summarizes trends in armed conflict, including the shift from interstate to intrastate wars that now mostly occur in the global south. Civil wars are more common and have causes like ethnic or religious conflicts, weak states, and large youth populations. Failing states threaten instability and their civil wars may become internationalized. Insurgencies aim to raise conflict costs rather than battlefield victories. Terrorism uses violence for political goals, and new terrorism is decentralized, lethal, and seeks weapons of mass destruction. Theories for conflict analyze factors from human nature to the international system's anarchy.

1. Chapter 7: Patterns of Armed Conflict

2. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Force Coercive Diplomacy: The use of violence or the threat of violence to achieve a political goal. 2

3. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning General Trends Civil war vs. Interstate war Realists: war is an instrument for international actors to use to resolve their conflicts Proportion of countries engaged in wars has declined; mostly internal wars Fewer, but more deadly, armed conflicts Most wars occur in the Global South War is no longer fought to gain foreign territory War between great powers is becoming obsolete “Long peace” 3

4. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning A Perspective on Armed Conflicts 4

5. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning The Causes of Civil Wars Ethnic groups Internal battles Religious conflicts “Failed states” Impoverished states 5

6. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning The Characteristics of Failing States Poverty Rule by corrupt governments Lack of democracy Poor democracies Population pressures Governments that fail to protect human rights Petrostates Lack of trade openness Large numbers of underemployed youths 6

7. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning The Threat of Failed States 7

8. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning The International Dimensions of Internal War Great powers Diversionary theory of war Civil wars can become internationalized through The tendency for them to incite external intervention The propensity for leaders of governments that are failing to wage wars abroad in order to try and control rebellion at home 8

9. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Insurgency, Guerilla Warfare, and Counterinsurgency The focus is not on defeating the enemy on the field of battle, but on raising the costs of conflict so that it is higher than any possible benefit to the attacker. 9

10. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Terrorism Asymmetric warfare: The use of violence (or the threat of it) by non-governmental actors in an effort to change government policies by creating fear of further violence. 10

11. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Causes of Terrorism Rational Choice Explanation Poverty Religion Islam and Terrorism 11

12. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Who Becomes a Terrorist? Profiling terrorists Group dynamics and terrorism 12

13. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning New Global Terrorism Nonhierarchical Use of technology Religious fanaticism Goal is to kill as many people as possible Fear of them acquiring WMDs 13

14. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning The Number of Terrorist Incidents and the Rising Number of Casualties Since the Late 1960s 14

15. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Counterterrorism Repression Conciliation Bush Doctrine State-sponsored terrorism Terrorism harder to fight today 15

16. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning War: First Level of Analysis (1 of 2) Relationship between human nature and aggression Humans one of few species to practice intraspecific aggression Realists assume drive for power and aggression is innate Most social scientists disagree 16

17. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning First Level of Analysis (2 of 2) Nature versus nurture debate Aggression through socialization rather than instinct? Territorial imperative as cause of war National character: drives certain nationalities to aggression Rational choice versus groupthink 17

18. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning War: Second Level of Analysis (1 of 2) States’ internal characteristics Duration of independence Cultural determinants of specific states Feminist theories: masculine ethos of realism Cultural conditioning 18

19. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Second Level of Analysis (2 of 2) Poverty State location relative to other states Demographic stress Militarization Economic system: communism v. capitalism Government system: democracies don’t fight each other Nationalism 19

20. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Demographic Stress and the Likelihood of Civil War 20

21. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning War: Third Level of Analysis (1 of 2) Global characteristics engender war Realism: anarchy  self-help Security dilemma Bargaining model of war Power transition theory: structural realism Long-cycle theory: dethroning hegemons War weariness hypothesis 21

22. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning The Long Cycle Theory of Global Leadership and Global War 22

23. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Web Links (1 of 2) Incore Institute for War and Peace Reporting International Crisis Group War, Peace, Security Guide Arms Sales Monitoring Project 23

24. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Web Links (2 of 2) Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists The Henry L. Stimson Center SIPRI Military Expenditure Country Graphs 24