Assessing Impact of RE & EE Policies

Economical, Technological and Environmental Impact Assessment of National Regulations
and Incentives for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
A project financed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark

Building a Green Economy –
the Opportunity for RCREEE Members

Presentation of the Policy Analysis Project

Dr. Nikolaus Supersberger

Page 1 Amman, 4.2.2010, RCREEE Regional Renewable Energy Conference


What is a “Green Economy”?

Green Economy is a broad concept to

- create economic branches in the fields of environmental technologies
- reduce negative environmental impacts of industrial activities

… and to generally base economic growth on the concept of sustainability

RENEWABLE ENERGIES (RE) and
ENERGY EFFICIENCY (EE)
are major elements of a green economy!



What is a “Green Economy”?

Opportunities of a green economy on the basis of RE and
EE for RCREEE countries

- Generate economic - Escape rising energy
growth import dependence
- Diversify industry - Produce your own energy
structures technologies
- Create jobs – reduce - Reduce environmental
unemployment damage



Step by step …

It’s a long way to go.
But nevertheless very rewarding.

It is the task of decision makers to initiate the process…
and a lot has been done already.

This is the context of our project!



Outline of our presentation

1) Introduction to the project
2) Methodology: Evidence based policy
making, Theory based evaluation
3) Structure of country reports
4) Documentation approach
5) Case studies
6) Regional study



Details

• DANIDA support to RCREEE
• Consultants: Consortium MVV decon / Wuppertal Institute
• June 2009 to February 2010

• Covering all ten RCREEE member countries
• Project staff: 10 national specialists, 4 international experts
(Germany, Great Britain), back-office support



Objectives

Addressing policy decision makers and policy planners:

1) Provide information on economic, technical and environmental impacts of policies and
instruments used for the promotion of RE & EE in RCREEE countries

2) Strengthen RE & EE policy planners and consultants in the application of methodologies
for the execution of “evidence based policies”, “theory based evaluation” and “economic
analysis of policy instruments”

3) Provide recommendations for how the policy making process in their countries can be
improved

4) Provide an overview of how countries’ EE & RE policies compare with other countries in
the region



Activities and Outputs

• Country missions: travels to countries
• Country seminars during travels: methodology etc.
• Country papers
• Regional paper
• Country workshops



Methodology

What are
Evidence based policy making
and
Theory based evaluation
?



What is Evidence Based Policy Making?

“An approach to policy development and implementation which uses
rigorous techniques to develop and maintain a robust evidence base
from which to develop policy options”.

All policies are based on evidence – the questions are:
• Is the evidence reliable?
• Are the processes by which evidence is turned into policy fit for their
purpose?



Why do we need it?

• Policy is often driven by prejudice or short-term political pressure, often
made by small groups (therefore often no acceptance by stakeholders)

• Agencies have their own agendas and visions that may conflict among
themselves and with those of government

• Countries need well-resourced, in-house capabilities to analyse and
evaluate policy and more transparent processes

• The perceived need is more stable and robust policy with greater
acceptance



What is evidence?

• Evidence is any information that can be used to turn policy objectives into
feasible and effective policy instruments:
• hard data (facts, trends, survey information)
• analytical reasoning that processes data to illuminate problems
• stakeholder opinion on an issue or set of issues.
• Sources of evidende: Research, analysis of stakeholder opinion, public
perceptions and beliefs, cost/benefit analyses, economic and statistical
modelling
• An evidence-based approach should show continuity between
– Foresight
– Strategy
– Policy, and
– Implementation



Good evidence is necessary, but not sufficient

There are policy processes that

use it well use it poorly
use good information
use poor information



The process of evidence-based policy making

• Alternative forms of intervention need to be reviewed. Evidence of the
success or failure of similar instruments in developed and developing
countries needs to be studied: Why did they succeed/fail?
• Relevant potential impacts need to be identified
• Indicators need to be established of what is expected from the policy
measures

• The cost of compliance needs to be assessed
• A feasible method is economic cost-benefit analysis (reflecting
opportunity costs of energy and external environmental costs).



What is Theory-Based Evaluation?

Theory based evaluation focusses on the
analysis of the theoretical and logical sequence
by which a policy intervention is expected to bring about its desired effect.

Example: The evalutation might ask about important
steps between a policy initiative and the outcome of this policy.

Introduction Consumer is Manufacturers Market is Energy use
of MEPS empowered to are transformed and CO2
make a better incentivised to and inefficient emissions
judgement and make more devices fall;
change efficient become Domestic
behaviour models obsolete manufacture
strengthened



Theory and the policy cycle

Foresight Evidence

Theory

Model

Indicators



Country reports: structure and specifics

We compiled country reports on the basis of
- interviews with stakeholders (ministries, agencies, international organisations, regulators,
universities, …)
- literature search
- direct observations

Covering Resulting in
- the overall energy situation: supply, - a detailed presentation of the findings in
demand, import/export dynamics, … a replicable structure
- the status quo of renewables and - case studies to show possible benefits
efficiency introduction of renewables and efficiency in national
- the structure of political institutions context
- the policy framework for renewables - a concise list of suggestions to improve
and efficiency the policy situation



Documentation

RCREEE will put detailed documentation of the project online.
It will contain the relevant documents we found:
- Country strategies
- Policies
- Laws
- Decrees
- Status documents
- Documents by international organisations

The documentation is to be understood as first approach of a common data basis
for RE and EE policies of the RCREEE region.
It is not an exhaustive list.
It is to be updated so that everybody can gain information of other countries’
policy settings and successes.


Assessing Impact of RE & EE Policies

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