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Spatial model of deforestation for Northeast Bolivia

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Workshop "Methods for biomass estimation and forest-cover mapping in the Tropics". Kigali, Rwanda. June 20, 2011.

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Spatial model of deforestation for Northeast Bolivia

  1. 1. Methods for Biomass Estimationand Forest-Cover Mapping in the Tropics Rwanda. June 20-25, 2011 SPATIAL MODEL OF DEFORESTATION FOR NORTHEAST BOLIVIA Eric Armijo
  2. 2. WHY SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATION?• Better understanding of past land usechange processes• Predictive power (future scenarios):spatial patterns• Support decision-making for naturalresource managers• REDD mechanism: baseline definition(additionality)
  3. 3. MODELING ENVIRONMENT Dinamica EGO Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Brazil http://www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica/• Multiple land cover/use transitions at the same time• Subregion support• Many transition matrices (annual deforestation rates)• Dynamic variables• Highly customizable (w/ spatial patterns)• Robust with large datasets• Freeware, available on the web• Tutorial & technical support available (forum)
  4. 4. MODELING ENVIRONMENT Dinamica EGO
  5. 5. STUDY AREA SOUTH AMERICA AMAZON EXTENT
  6. 6. Indigenous REDD Program in the Bolivian Amazon Size: ~ 3.8 Million Ha. 160,000 inhabitants 4 indigenous territories Forest cover (2008): ~2.7 Million Ha. (71,9 %) Deforestation: 9,800 Ha/yr
  7. 7. MAIN DRIVERS AND AGENTS OF DEFORESTATION Slash-and-burnCattle ranching (pastures) Small-scale agriculture ~ 20 - 50 Ha. ~ 1 - 5 Ha. Road improvement
  8. 8. REGIONALIZATION OF THE STUDY AREA 4 1 1 Riberalta - Guayaramerín 2 Riberalta - Rurrenabaque 3 El Choro - Cobija3 2 4 Rural (outside main road) 4 4
  9. 9. SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATIONAmount of forestconversion Lambin & Geist, 2006
  10. 10. DEFORESTATION RATE 250,000 200,000 Deforestation (Area in Ha.) 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1991 0 2 4 6 8 10 2001 12 14 2005 16 18 2008 Area (Ha.) antes 1991 1991-2001 2001-2005 2005-2008Study area 83,486 45,390 46,185 29,005 204,066 Average annual deforestation rate (Ha/year) 4,539 11,546 9,668
  11. 11. DEFORESTATION RATE (Transition Matrix) 0.13 % 1.54 % The transition matrix is calculated for each 0.62 % subregion based on 0.13 % observed (past)0.10 % deforestation 0.13 % DEFORESTATION RATE 1991-2005
  12. 12. SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATION Location of forest conversion Lambin & Geist, 2006
  13. 13. PREDICTORS (VARIABLES) DEFINITIONDistance to deforested areas Distance to main roads
  14. 14. “Deforestation risk” Deforestation predictors (variables) Spatial transition probabilityLand use Map of 1991 changes & 2005
  15. 15. SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATIONSimulation Lambin & Geist, 2006
  16. 16. GENERATING SPATIAL PATTERNS Deforestation patch formationExpander = 20% Expander = 40% Expander = 60% Expander = 80%
  17. 17. MODEL VALIDATION 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% Model fitness Similarirty 30% 25% Spatial resolution (m) 20% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Is the model capturing adequately the past dynamics ?Simulated deforestation: 2005-2008
  18. 18. PROJECTING FUTURE DEFORESTATION SCENARIOS2008 2020 forest deforestation Dinamica EGO
  19. 19. Thanks you ! Questions Eric Armijo earmijo@fan-bo.org http://www.fan-bo.org/http://www.reddamazonia.org/

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