The document summarizes a presentation given at the ATRAA 2010 conference in Alice Springs, Australia on August 6, 2010. The presentation was about global trends in solar PV markets and policies. It discussed the growth of solar markets in various countries driven by policies like feed-in tariffs and incentives. It also presented data on cost reductions in solar technologies and projections for solar energy growth in Asia through 2030.

1. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Global trends in solar PV markets and policies
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership
(REEEP)
ATRAA 2010 Eva Oberender
Alice Springs, Australia Regional Director
6 August 2010 REEEP South East Asia & Pacific

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
“global warming
alarmism is
challenging our
freedom”
“leave it to the
market – market
forces will determine
what we should do”
“environmentalists are
only attempting to
limit our democratic
liberties”

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Solar is the unlimited energy potential – PV, solar thermal and CSP
will play a critical role in future energy mix

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
The Asian and Pacific region is rich in solar power potential
Source: http://www.meteonorm.com

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Current performance and price of different PV module
technologies *

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Wind and PV equipment show significant cost reductions

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
The major share of the estimated 45% increase in world energy
demand by 2030 will take place in Asia
Source: World Energy Outlook 2008, IEA

14. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
The estimated €6 trillion investment in Asian energy infrastructure
will primarily go into fossil fuels based projects
TWh
4 000 Geothermal, tide and wave
Solar
3 500 Biomass
Wind
3 000
Hydro
2 500 Nuclear
Fossil fuels
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
2006‐2015 2015‐2030
At this stage solar is estimated to account only for ~70TWh of energy infrastructure
investments up to 2030.
Source: World Energy Outlook 2008, IEA

15. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Many countries already recognize the importance of solar energy
• China:
– Has rolled out two solar programs to date
• a rooftop solar subsidy of 20 RMB/Wp for systems >50kWp
• Golden Sun Program which provides a rebate for systems >300 KW (50%
for on grid and 70% for off grid)
– a feed in tariff for solar PV, US$0.20 per kilowatt hour of electricity
• India:
– Launched generation based incentive with the target of 50MW solar power
• Feed‐in tariff for grid connected PV: 12Rs/kWh
• Feed‐in tariff for grid connected solar thermal: 10Rs/kWh
– The new “Solar India” plan aims to have 20,000 MW of PV and solar thermal
by 2020

16. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Global PV market is still Europe driven – with 22.9GW global
installed capacity in 2009, PV accounts currently only for 0.2% of
global electricity production

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Asia could account for 1/3 of the global PV market by 2013,
resulting in 6000MW installed capacity
Source: EPIA - http://www.epia.org/policy-driven-scenario

18. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
A handful of countries with strong policy regimes account for 80%
of global installed PV capacity; new countries have emerged as
important players in the last few years.
Source: IEA 2010

19. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
There was a 30-fold increase of worldwide grid-connected PV
Power within the last 8 years
The PV market has experienced rapid growth, with an average of annual growth rate of 40%
Source: IEA PVPS

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Feed-in tariffs are the main regulatory driver for RE in EU

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
ROCs, which form the basis for UK’s RE support, are supplemented
by PV FiT

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Thanks to FiT, Germany overachieved its 2010 RES target (12.5%)
in 2007

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Overinflated FiT can cause unexpected growth, as seen in Spain

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Change to FiTs have a major market impact

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Investors ask for attractive profit margins and fair market
conditions

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Global renewable production is expected to double every decade

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Current technologies will co-exist with emerging technologies and
novel concepts
Source: IEA 2010

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
There will be a shift from residential to large-scale PV application
over time
Source: IEA 2010

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Electricity from CSP plants as shares of total electricity
consumption

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
DESERTEC will satisfy a substantial part of the energy needs of the
Middle East and North Africa, and meet as much as 15% of Europe’s
electricity demand by 2050

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Energy demand in the ASEAN-6 countries more than doubled from
1990 to 2007

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
The RE technologies with the potential to make major contribution
in the medium term to 2030 are primarily those which have
already reached, or are close to, market competitiveness

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Technical/infrastructure barriers (including grid-related barriers)
rank highest in obstacles identified in ASEAN countries, followed
by administrative and market-related hurdles.

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Solar Outlook
• The global solar market has significant momentum, and is not tied
to the price of oil alone
• However, the market remains policy driven until grid parity is
reached
– Policy uncertainty can adversely affect investor willingness to
support large-scale installations or new startups
• The market is diversifying, thanks to the rapid maturation of solar
technologies
– Thin film solar technology expands the market for PV and
accelerates the trend toward grid parity
– Concentrating solar technology is rapidly being adopted by
utilities for centralized power generation
– Traditional flat-plate PV continues its rapid decline in cost
thanks to an influx of suppliers in Asia

36. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
REEEP is a vehicle to provide necessary support for RE
and EE market acceleration
• REEEP acts as a market facilitator by reducing market barriers for
renewables and energy efficiency systems and focus on:
• policy/regulation development and improvement
• finance and business models
• REEEP is driven by a bottom‐up approach to meet the real needs on the
ground
• REEEP works with governments as well as with the private sector
• REEEP is committed to the achievement of MDGs and aims to improve
access to sustainable clean energy for the poor

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Regional Secretariats delivering value

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
REEEP is technology neutral, but sees PV and solar thermal as key
energy technologies
• In most countries market forces alone cannot boost wide utilization of
solar technologies
• Supportive policies which provide financial support are key for the market
development
• Subsidies on fossil fuels based energy can jeopardize the solar power
market
• R&D on grid connection and storage is critical for the wide‐spread solar
implementation
• International standards and technological harmonization would allow
more effective marketing of solar products
• Improve capacity building should promote solar power applications

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Provision of sustainable lighting through microfinance

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
REEEP projects in the Pacific region

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
REEEP tools
www.reegle.info search engine
www.retscreen.net
free RE project development software

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
thank you

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
REEEP
questions? Eva Oberender
Regional Director, REEEP Southeast Asia & Pacific
T: +61 410 277 393 eva.oberender@reeep.org
www.reeep.org
www.reegle.info
www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au

44. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
News on Solar Power
• Australia plans to invest $1.6 billion in solar technologies, including new funding
of $1.365 billion in a Solar Flagships program (1000MW ) helping position
Australia as a world leader in this vital energy technology for the future;
• China launches green power revolution to catch up on west. The plan is to hit 20%
renewables target by 2020 with $30bn to be invested in low carbon projects.
Solar technology play a key role in this.
• Malaysia will soon implement the feed-in tariff for solar to enable users to sell
excess power to the power grid
• India plans 20,000 MW of solar thermal and photovoltaic energy up and running
by 2020 and by investing $1bn to become world solar leader.
• The world largest Solar Energy project ( 5GW ) is going to be built in Gujarat/India.
The Indian Company Bhoskar Silicon has announced that it will be building a 250
MW integrated solar power complex in West Bengal.
44

45. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
China is expected unveil feed in tariff for solar PV which could fall
between US$0.16 and US$0.22 per kilowatt hour of electricity
• China has rolled out two solar programs to date
‐ a rooftop solar subsidy of 20 RMB/watt for systems >50KW
‐ Golden sun Program which provides a rebate for systems >300 KW ( 50%
for on grid and 70% for off grid )
• Provincial programs for PV such as in Jiangsu, Beijing
• Special targets for solar heat application for 2010 which should have an
accumulated heat collection area 150 mil. M2
• Solar water heater: annual production 23 mil m2, accumulated 130 mil m2,
60% of the world production
• Solar PV: a record manufacturing capacity 1GW, increased by 600MW,
largest PV manufacturer in the world

46. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
India has announced the “Solar India” plan on December 1st 2009
with estimated costs of $1b
• “Solar India” plan adopts a three‐phased approach with a preliminary goal of
installing 200 MW of solar energy capacity by 2012. By the year 2022, Solar India
hopes to have 20,000 MW of solar thermal and photovoltaic energy up and
running, in detail it contains the following targets:
‐ To create favorable conditions for solar manufacturing capability, particularly
solar thermal for indigenous production and market leadership.
‐ To promote programs for off grid applications, reaching 1000 MW by 2017 and
2000 MW by 2022 .
‐ To achieve 15 million sq. meters solar thermal collector area by 2017 and 20
million by 2022.
‐ To deploy 20 million solar lighting systems for rural areas by 2022.
• Generation based incentives which would be received by any solar generation
project commissioned after December 2009 with a ceiling of Rs 11.40/KWh
• Generation Based Incentive scheme ( GBI) targets generation of a minimum of
1MW and aims to promote a total capacity of 50MWp within 2007 ‐2012. Under
this scheme an overall tariff of Rs 15 per KWh is guaranteed

47. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Renewable Energy is critical for energy security and economic
growth, particularly for small islands
According to TEC’s General Manager, Mr Mafalu Lotolua, “the development
of renewable energy resources to diversify Tuvalu’s energy mix offers some
degree of energy security for the country”.
Renewable energy resources such as solar, wind and biofuel (mainly derived
from coconut oil) provide a good prospect for broadening and diversifying
Tuvalu’s energy supply resources.

48. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Islands are becoming leaders in Renewable Energy
Tuvalu has set a 100% renewable energy
target by 2020
It will cost $20 million to generate all
electricity from solar and wind and end
dependence on diesel
“We look forward to the day when our nation offers an example to all –
powered entirely by natural resources such as the sun and the wind”
Kausea Natano, Tuvalu Minister for Public Utilities and Industries
Source: Tom Roper, Climate Institute

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership
an international partnership established at the 2002 World Summit
on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg
working primarily in developing countries and in countries in
transition

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Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
REEEP’s focus
facilitating the development of market conditions for
the accelerated uptake of renewable energy and
energy efficient technologies through:
structuring policy and regulatory initiatives for
clean energy, and
facilitating financing for clean energy projects
REEEP adds unique value of bringing the private
sector to the table

51. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
REEEP partners
- businesses
- G8 countries
- developing
countries
- NGOs
Currently some 300 partners:
• 42 Governments
• International organisations,
NGOs and businesses, universities

52. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Regional Secretariats delivering value

53. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
REEEP’s goals:
increase the sustainability of demand and supply side
of energy systems
reduce market barriers and financial obstacles for
renewables and energy efficiency systems
establish on-the-ground project activities that are
targeting policy improvements and innovative finance
mechanisms
improve energy access for the poor through reliable
and clean energy services
replicate success across the developed and developing
world

54. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
In 130 projects REEEP has provided support to governments and
private sector for RE and EE uptake
Regional Projects Services Strategic Activities
Regulatory and Information SERN
Policy Issues Gateway “reegle"
REIL
Publications EEC
Finance and Business
Utility Programme
Toolkits
Green Community
Clusters
Added Value of REEEP:
Replication
Implementation Strategic Events Small Energy
Leverage Provider Programme

55. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Implementation Support of Brazil Grid-Connected Solar
Photovoltaic Roofs Programme
• Aim: Implement a legislative framework for PV
• Use a consultative process involving key
stakeholders, NGOs, the Ministry of Mines and
Energy, the regulator ANEEL and Financial
Institutions
• Develop a set of guidelines and
recommendations for the implementation of a
successful solar roofs programme
• Prepare and present legislation and regulation
drafts
• Conduct comprehensive analysis on the type
and quantity of incentives and subsidies, as
well as the consequent impacts on tariffs
• Implementing agency: RENOVE

56. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Promotion of Solar Water Heating in Uganda
• Aim: Use SWH for electricity peak shaving
Save 1 MW of electricity during peak
hours by installing 500 solar water heaters
• Establish standards and guidelines for
integrating solar water heaters in
buildings
• Capacity building of large number of
private sector engineers to install and
maintain solar water heating systems
• Prepare an investment plan to finance
replication and scale up of solar water
heater use
• Implementing Agency: Ministry of Energy
and Mines Development

57. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Commercialization of Large Scale Solar Water Heating Systems in
South Africa
• Aim: To establish a fund to development a
market of large scale SWH in South Africa
• Development of a business plan for a €1.75
million SWH investment facility – fund ‐
including technical assistance
• Secure financial commitment from
prospective financiers and donors
• Organise a market development and training
workshop with relevant stakeholders to
develop an investment pipeline
• Implement the fund and evaluate the scaling
up to a larger second fund
• Implementing Agency: E+Co

58. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Promoting Low-Energy Use Building Programmes in China
Aim: Reduce the current 60% loss of
energy in the building sector of China
through SHW
Investigation of ten current low‐
energy building programmes in five
representative Chinese cities
Review of best practices in
sustainable building programmes in
three European countries
Development of policy
recommendations to promote the
incorporation of SHW technologies
into the building sector in China
Implementing Agency:
CNERCHS/Ecofys

59. ATRAA 2010
Alice Springs, 6 August 2010
Pacific Micro Energy Service Companies (PMESCOs) on the Solomon
Islands and in Kiribati
• Aim: Replace kerosene lamps with
solar lanterns
• Establish a micro ESCO with a micro
credit facility in remote rural areas on
the Solomon Islands and in Kiribati
allowing barter payments in kind
• Identification and training of local
entrepreneurs for servicing solar
lamps
• Explore linkages with carbon Finance
• Implementing Agency: SOPAC