Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Google Buy-Write / Overwrite Makes Sense: Downloading Premium
1. EQUITY RESEARCH
July 14, 2005 North America
Investment Strategy & Macro
Equity Derivatives Strategy Equity Derivatives Strategy
Market CommentaryStrategy Ryan Renicker
1.212.526.9425
GOOG Buy-Write: Downloading Premium rrenicke@lehman.com
Sector View:
New: 0-Not Rated
Old: 0-Not Rated
Investment conclusion
We are seeing signs that option market participants are pricing in a relatively high degree of uncertainty for Google (GOOG) shares
heading into Q2 earnings (July 21), as measured by Google implied volatility levels. Specifically, Google 2-month implied volatilities are
currently trading relatively high 1) on an absolute basis 2) versus realized and 3) versus the Nasdaq 100. From a fundamental perspective,
GOOG is likely to post strong 2Q numbers on the heels of continued secular growth in search, international expansion and further gains in
monetization, according to Lehman Internet & Media analyst Douglas Anmuth. We believe investors should consider implementing a
August 320 “buy-write” strategy on GOOG shares heading into GOOG’s July 21 earnings release. This short-term strategy allows
investors to maintain a bullish stance on GOOG shares into earnings, while partially protecting against a downside move in the stock. The
buy-write makes money as long as GOOG trades above $289.46 as of the August 20th expiration date and outperforms a long-only
position in GOOG shares if GOOG trades at or below $329.40 at expiration. If GOOG trades at $329.40 on expiry, both the buy-write
strategy and the long-only position would result in call-away or holding-period return of about 10.25%.
Figure 1: GOOG 2-Month Implied Volatility (Rolling Basis, Year to Date)
50%
GOOG 2-Month Implied Volatility
48%
46%
44%
p d o tility
42%
2 o thIm lie V la
40%
38%
-M n
36%
34%
32%
30%
28%
1 3 5
1 8 5
1 3 5
1 8 5
1 3 5
1 8 5
2 2 5
2 7 5
2 2 5
2 7 5
2 2 5
2 7 5
3 4 5
3 9 5
3 4 5
3 9 5
3 4 5
3 9 5
4 3 5
4 8 5
4 3 5
4 8 5
4 3 5
4 8 5
5 3 5
5 8 5
5 3 5
5 8 5
5 3 5
5 8 5
6 2 5
6 7 5
6 2 5
6 7 5
6 2 5
6 7 5
7 2 5
7 7 5
7 2 5
0 /0 /0
0 /0 /0
0 /1 /0
0 /1 /0
0 /2 /0
0 /2 /0
0 /0 /0
0 /0 /0
0 /1 /0
0 /1 /0
0 /2 /0
0 /2 /0
0 /0 /0
0 /0 /0
0 /1 /0
0 /1 /0
0 /2 /0
0 /2 /0
0 /0 /0
0 /0 /0
0 /1 /0
0 /1 /0
0 /2 /0
0 /2 /0
0 /0 /0
0 /0 /0
0 /1 /0
0 /1 /0
0 /2 /0
0 /2 /0
0 /0 /0
0 /0 /0
0 /1 /0
0 /1 /0
0 /2 /0
0 /2 /0
0 /0 /0
0 /0 /0
0 /1 /0
Source: Lehman Brothers Equity Derivatives Strategy.
Lehman Brothers does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors
should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Customers of Lehman Brothers in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or
companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this
independent research at www.lehmanlive.com or can call 1-800-2-LEHMAN to request a copy of this research.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decisions.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S) ON PAGE 5 AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
BEGINNING ON PAGE 6
1
2. EQUITY RESEARCH
• We are seeing signs that option market participants are pricing in a relatively high degree of uncertainty for Google (GOOG)
shares heading into Q2 earnings (July 21), as measured by Google implied volatility levels.
• Specifically, Google 2-month implied volatilities are currently trading relatively high 1) versus where they have traded on a rolling
basis during the past 2 months 2) versus GOOG 44-trading day realized volatility (daily returns, 2-month time periods, on a rolling basis)
and 3) versus the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ). Please see Figures 2 – 4 for each of these measures in a graphical context.
Figure 2: GOOG 2-Month Implied Volatility (YTD)
50%
GOOG 2-Month Implied Volatility
48%
46%
44%
2-Month Implied Volatility
42%
40%
38%
36%
34%
32%
30%
28%
01/03/05
01/08/05
01/13/05
01/18/05
01/23/05
01/28/05
02/02/05
02/07/05
02/12/05
02/17/05
02/22/05
02/27/05
03/04/05
03/09/05
03/14/05
03/19/05
03/24/05
03/29/05
04/03/05
04/08/05
04/13/05
04/18/05
04/23/05
04/28/05
05/03/05
05/08/05
05/13/05
05/18/05
05/23/05
05/28/05
06/02/05
06/07/05
06/12/05
06/17/05
06/22/05
06/27/05
07/02/05
07/07/05
07/12/05
Source: Lehman Brothers Equity Derivatives Strategy.
Figure 3: GOOG 2M – 44 Trading Day Realized Vol. Spread (YTD)
20%
15%
Implied - Realized Spread
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
01/03/05
01/08/05
01/13/05
01/18/05
01/23/05
01/28/05
02/02/05
02/07/05
02/12/05
02/17/05
02/22/05
02/27/05
03/04/05
03/09/05
03/14/05
03/19/05
03/24/05
03/29/05
04/03/05
04/08/05
04/13/05
04/18/05
04/23/05
04/28/05
05/03/05
05/08/05
05/13/05
05/18/05
05/23/05
05/28/05
06/02/05
06/07/05
06/12/05
06/17/05
06/22/05
06/27/05
07/02/05
07/07/05
07/12/05
Source: Lehman Brothers Equity Derivatives Strategy.
Figure 4: GOOG vs. QQQQ 2M Implied Vol. Spread (YTD)
35%
30%
GOOG - QQQQ 2M Implied Vol. Spread
25%
20%
15%
10%
01/03/05
01/08/05
01/13/05
01/18/05
01/23/05
01/28/05
02/02/05
02/07/05
02/12/05
02/17/05
02/22/05
02/27/05
03/04/05
03/09/05
03/14/05
03/19/05
03/24/05
03/29/05
04/03/05
04/08/05
04/13/05
04/18/05
04/23/05
04/28/05
05/03/05
05/08/05
05/13/05
05/18/05
05/23/05
05/28/05
06/02/05
06/07/05
06/12/05
06/17/05
06/22/05
06/27/05
07/02/05
07/07/05
07/12/05
Source: Lehman Brothers Equity Derivatives Strategy.
2
3. EQUITY RESEARCH
• From a fundamental perspective, GOOG is likely to post strong Q2 numbers on the heels of continued secular growth in search,
international expansion and further gains in monetization, according to Lehman Internet & Media analyst Douglas Anmuth. Please see
Google: Raising Numbers, Raising Target (7/14/05, Doug Anmuth) for further details.
• Against this fundamental backdrop, we believe investors should consider implementing a “buy-write” strategy on GOOG shares
heading into GOOG’s July 21 earnings release. This short-term strategy allows investors to maintain a bullish stance on GOOG
shares into earnings, while partially protecting against a downside move in the stock.
• Specifically, we recommend investors simultaneously purchase GOOG shares ($298.86 last price) and write GOOG August 320
calls (~$9.40 premium) against their long GOOG position.
• This strategy makes money as long as GOOG trades above $289.46 as of the August 20th expiration date and outperforms a
long-only position in GOOG shares if GOOG trades at or below $329.40 at expiration.
• If GOOG trades at $329.40 on expiry, both the buy-write strategy and the long-only position would result in call-away or holding-period
return of about 10.25% (Figure 5).
Figure 5: Payoff Diagram: GOOG Aug. 320 Buy Write vs. Stock-Only
$50
Buy-Write More Profitable
Than Stock-Only Strategy
$40 up to GOOG Stock Price ~ $329.40
$30
Payoff at Expiration
$20
Levered Upside
$10
$-
$(10)
Buy-Write Payoff
Stock-Only Payoff
$(20)
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
Stock Price at Expiry
Source: Lehman Brothers Equity Derivatives Strategy.
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4. EQUITY RESEARCH
• A potential risk to implementing a buy-write strategy versus a long-only position in GOOG shares arises if GOOG rallies above
$329.40 as of the expiration date ($320 exercise price + $9.40 premium = $329.40). Under this scenario, the buy-write strategy would
underperform the long-only strategy (opportunity cost above $329.40).
Figure 6: GOOG Historical Stock Price vs. Approx. Buy-Write Profit Range (in Brackets)
$330
~ $30
$320
$310
Make $
$300
$290 $0
$280
GOOG (Closing Price)
$270
$260
$250
$240
$230
$220
$210
$200
$190
$180
$170
01/03/05
01/09/05
01/15/05
01/21/05
01/27/05
02/02/05
02/08/05
02/14/05
02/20/05
02/26/05
03/04/05
03/10/05
03/16/05
03/22/05
03/28/05
04/03/05
04/09/05
04/15/05
04/21/05
04/27/05
05/03/05
05/09/05
05/15/05
05/21/05
05/27/05
06/02/05
06/08/05
06/14/05
06/20/05
06/26/05
07/02/05
07/08/05
07/14/05
07/20/05
07/26/05
08/01/05
08/07/05
08/13/05
08/19/05
Source: Lehman Brothers Equity Derivatives Strategy.
• GOOG is up about 55% during the past 3 months.
4
5. EQUITY RESEARCH
Options are not suitable for all investors and the risks of option trading should be weighed against the potential rewards.
Supporting documents that form the basis of the recommendations are available on request. Please note that the trade ideas within
this report in no way relate to the fundamental ratings applied to European stocks by Lehman Brothers' Equity Research.
Analyst Certification:
I, Ryan Renicker, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research Industry Note accurately reflect my personal views about any or
all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Industry Note and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Industry Note.
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6. EQUITY RESEARCH
Important Disclosures
Rating and Price Target Chart: GOOG
GOOGLE INC.
As of 14-Jun-2005
Currency = USD
304.00
288.00
272.00
256.00
240.00
224.00
208.00
192.00
176.00
160.00
144.00
128.00
112.00
96.00
6-02 9-02 12-02 3-03 6-03 9-03 12-03 3-04 6-04 9-04 12-04 3-05 6-05
Closing Price Price Target
Recommendation Change Drop Coverage
Source: FactSet
Date Closing Price Rating Price Target Date Closing Price Rating Price Target
22-Apr-05 215.81 275.00 26-Jan-05 189.24 190.00
05-Apr-05 188.57 1-Overweight 06-Oct-04 137.08 120.00
02-Feb-05 205.96 230.00 06-Oct-04 137.08 2-Equal weight
FOR EXPLANATION OF RATINGS REFER TO THE STOCK RATING KEYS LOCATED ON THE PAGE FOLLOWING THE LAST PRICE CHART
6
7. EQUITY RESEARCH
Important Disclosures:
The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the Firm’s total
revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities.
Related Stocks: Disclosures Ticker Price (07/11) Rating
Google Inc. A,C,D,J,L GOOG 291.78 1-Overweight
A - Lehman Brothers Inc. or an affiliate managed or co-managed within the past 12 months a public offering of securities for this company.
C - Lehman Brothers Inc. makes a market in the securities of this company.
D - Lehman Brothers Inc. or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from the subject company within the past
12 months.
J - Lehman Brothers Inc. or an affiliate trade(s) regularly in the shares of the subject company.
L - The subject company is or during the past 12 months has been an investment banking client of Lehman Brothers Inc.
Risk Disclosure:
GOOG: Google is exposed to consumer discretionary spending and the macro economy given the company's reliance on online
advertising, more specifically sponsored search. Additionally, the loss of a large affiliate, including AOL and Ask Jeeves, could have a
material impact on Google's business.
Guide to Lehman Brothers Equity Research Rating System:
Our coverage analysts use a relative rating system in which they rate stocks as 1-Overweight, 2- Equal weight or 3-Underweight (see
definitions below) relative to other companies covered by the analyst or a team of analysts that are deemed to be in the same industry sector
(the “sector coverage universe”). To see a list of the companies that comprise a particular sector coverage universe, please go to
www.lehman.com/disclosures
In addition to the stock rating, we provide sector views which rate the outlook for the sector coverage universe as 1-Positive, 2-Neutral or
3-Negative (see definitions below). A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not the equivalent of our rating system.
Investors should carefully read the entire research report including the definitions of all ratings and not infer its contents from ratings alone.
Stock Rating
1-Overweight - The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-month
investment horizon.
2-Equal weight - The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a
12- month investment horizon.
3-Underweight - The stock is expected to underperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-
month investment horizon.
RS-Rating Suspended - The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm
policies in certain circumstances including when Lehman Brothers is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction
involving the company.
Sector View
1-Positive - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are improving.
2-Neutral - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are steady, neither improving nor deteriorating.
3-Negative - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are deteriorating.
Stock Ratings From February 2001 to August 5, 2002 (sector view did not exist):
This is a guide to expected total return (price performance plus dividend) relative to the total return of the stocks’ local market (i.e. the market
where the stock primarily trades) over the next 12 months.
1-Strong Buy - expected to outperform the market by 15 or more percentage points.
2-Buy - expected to outperform the market by 5-15 percentage points.
3-Market Perform - expected to perform in line with the market, plus or minus 5 percentage points.
4-Market Underperform - expected to underperform the market by 5-15 percentage points.
5-Sell - expected to underperform the market by 15 or more percentage points.
Distribution of Ratings:
Lehman Brothers Global Equity Research has 1712 companies under coverage.
40% have been assigned a 1-Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as Buy rating, 33% of
companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.
42% have been assigned a 2-Equal weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as Hold rating, 7% of
companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.
18% have been assigned a 3-Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as Sell rating, 84% of
companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.
7