1. Population Change in England and Wales 1700-2000

2. Hanel, Germany J. Gathorpe-Hardy What do you think these cartoons are saying?

3. Demographic Transition Model

4. Population Change Births Immigrants Deaths Emigrants Total Population Natural Increase Migration The total population of an area is the balance between 2 forces of change: natural increase and migration Natural increase is the balance between birth rates and death rates Inputs Outputs

5. World Population Changes

6. Global Natural Increase

7. Average Annual Growth Rates

8. Doubling Time This map shows how long it will take for countries to double their population if it continued to grow at the present rate

14. Is there a Stage 5? ? ? ? Stage 5: Depleting Population Sweden?

15. Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Ethiopia/ Niger UK: pre-1780 Natural Increase In Population Natural Decrease In Population Bangladesh/ Kenya UK: 1780-1880 Brazil/ China UK: 1880-1940 Japan/ USA UK: Post-1940

16. Demographic Transition Model and the Pyramids?

18. Reasons What do you think the reasons are for the changes at each stage?

24. Like all models, the demographic transition model has its limitations. It failed to consider, or to predict, several factors and events: 1 Birth rates in several MEDCs have fallen below death rates (Germany, Sweden). This has caused, for the first time, a population decline which suggests that perhaps the model should have a fifth stage added to it. 2 The model assumes that in time all countries pass through the same four stages. It now seems unlikely, however, that many LEDCs, especially in Africa, will ever become industrialised.

25. 3 The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the consequence of industrialisation. Initially, the death rate in many British cities rose, due to the insanitary conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it only began to fall after advances were made in medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in many developing countries has been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities. In many countries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage 3 has been less rapid than the model suggests due to religious and/or political opposition to birth control (Brazil), whereas the fall was much more rapid, and came earlier, in China following the government-introduced ‘onechild’ policy. The timescale of the model, especially in several South-east Asian countries such as Hong Kong and Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a much faster rate than did the early industrialised countries. Like all models, the demographic transition model has its limitations. It failed to consider, or to predict, several factors and events: (cont..)

26. 4 Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe (USA, Canada, Australia) did not pass through the early stages of the model.

27. The End?

30. In his Essay on the Principle of Population , initially published in 1798, Malthus postulated that population tended to grow geometrically while the means of subsistence (food) grew only arithmetically. The Malthusian Trap arithmetic growth (food): 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10… geometric growth (population): 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512…

31. Malthus argued that the difference between geometric and arithmetic growth caused a tension between the growth of population and that of the means of subsistence. -- this gap could not persist indefinitely. Owing to war, disease, hunger, and vice, mortality would serve as a positive check on population growth.

32. BUT!!! Contrary to Malthus’s prediction, mortality has not yet risen to curb world population growth. < 1 billion people in 1800 6 billion by the end of the 20 th century

35. BBC REPORT – World Population to rise by 40% http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/4297169.stm