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Business Aviation 2015-2024 Market Forecast

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Business Aviation Market Forecast 2015-2024 by Bombardier

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Business Aviation 2015-2024 Market Forecast

  1. 1. MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT BUSINESSAIRCRAFT.BOMBARDIER.COM
  2. 2. Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements include risks associated with general economic conditions, risks associated with our business environment (such as risks associated with the financial condition of the airline industry and rail industry, political instability and force majeure), operational risks (such as risks related to developing new products and services; fixed-price commitments and production and project execution; doing business with partners; product performance warranty and casualty claim losses; regulatory and legal proceedings; the environment; dependence on certain customers and suppliers; human resources), financing risks (such as risks related to liquidity and access to capital markets, retirement benefit plan risk, exposure to credit risk, certain restrictive debt covenants, financing support provided for the benefit of certain customers and reliance on government support) and market risks (such as risks related to foreign currency fluctuations, changing interest rates, decreases in residual values and increases in commodity prices). For more details, see the Risks and uncertainties section in Other in the MD&A the Corporation’s financial report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors that may affect future growth, results and performance is not exhaustive and undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statement set forth herein reflect our expectations as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change after such date. Unless otherwise required by applicable securities laws, we expressly disclaim any intention, and assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. This presentation includes forward-looking statements, which may involve, but are not limited to: statements with respect to our objectives, guidance, targets, goals, priorities, our market and strategies, financial position, beliefs, prospects, plans, expectations, anticipations, estimates and intentions; general economic and business outlook, prospects and trends of an industry; expected growth in demand for products and services; product development, including projected design, characteristics, capacity or performance; expected or scheduled entry-into-service of products and services, orders, deliveries, testing, lead times, certifications and project execution in general; our competitive position; and the expected impact of the legislative and regulatory environment and legal proceedings on our business and operations. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “intend”, “anticipate”, “plan”, “foresee”, “believe”, “continue”, “maintain” or “align”, the negative of these terms, variations of them or similar terminology. By their nature, forward-looking statements require us to make assumptions and are subject to important known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause our actual results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted results. While we consider our assumptions to be reasonable and appropriate based on information currently available, there is a risk that they may not be accurate. For additional information with respect to the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements made in this presentation refer to the respective Guidance and forward- looking statements sections in Overview, Bombardier Aerospace and Bombardier Transportation sections in the Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) in the Corporation’s financial report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014. FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS All amounts in this presentation are expressed in 2014 U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated. Global 5000, Global 6000, Global 7000, Global 8000, Learjet 40, Learjet 45, Learjet 70, Learjet 75, Learjet 85, Challenger 350, Challenger 650, Bombardier, Bombardier Business Aircraft, Bombardier Vision and The Evolution of Mobility are either Unregistered or Registered Trade-Mark(s) of Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries. BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 2
  3. 3. 1. INTRODUCTION AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2. BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT OVERVIEW 3. BUSINESS AIRCRAFT MARKET DRIVERS 4. BUSINESS AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 5. FORECAST BY REGION 6. CONCLUSION TABLE OF CONTENTS 3
  4. 4. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Bombardier Business Aircraft is pleased to present its 2015 edition of the Business Aircraft Market Forecast, debuting at the European Business Aviation Convention and Exhibition in Geneva. The forecast provides an in-depth look at how six primary market drivers (wealth creation, globalization of trade, emerging markets, new aircraft programs, replacement demand and accessibility) will shape the future of business aviation over the next 10 years. This analysis focuses specifically on aircraft categories in which Bombardier competes: Light, Medium and Large, as well as major world regions. THE BUSINESS JET MARKET IN 2014 In 2014, the business jet industry continued its path towards recovery, led by the strengthening North American economy. North American business jet orders and deliveries in the markets where Bombardier competes were strong in 2014, driven by solid domestic business investment, a thriving stock market and sustained consumer spending. However, orders and deliveries lagged in other regions as a result of several challenges which held back a broader recovery in the world economy. European GDP growth remained sluggish overall but gained some momentum in the later part of 2014. China’s growth decelerated while Russia ended the year on the brink of recession due to falling oil prices and significant economic restrictions imposed by the western world. Last year the industry reached 601 aircraft deliveries, a 6% increase from 2013. Demand for long range business travel continued to grow, though at a slower pace, which resulted in a total of 200 deliveries for Large category aircraft. Medium category aircraft had 212 total deliveries, a modest recovery expected to accelerate as world GDP growth improves in upcoming years. Light category deliveries amounted to 189 aircraft, less than half the level of deliveries seen when the market peaked in 2008. Having secured more aircraft orders and deliveries since the downturn in 2009 than any other manufacturer, Bombardier Business Aircraft continues to hold its position as industry leader. In 2014, Bombardier Business Aircraft delivered 204 business aircraft, amounting to 34% delivery market share. BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 4
  5. 5. Our 10-year delivery forecast predicts 9,000 business aircraft deliveries valued at $267 billion. In the following sections, we present our detailed forecast and analysis of the business jet industry for key regions across the world. 1 In a series of studies conducted between 2009 and 2013, NEXA Advisors evaluated the impact of business jet ownership on small to large companies, as well as government agencies. Its most recent study on business aviation and the world’s top performing companies concluded that companies using business jets were likely to outperform non-users on revenue growth, innovation, employee satisfaction and market share. BUSINESS JET VALUE PROPOSITION AND LONG-TERM VISION FOR THE INDUSTRY Business jets have proven to be a cost-effective, fast, and safe method of travel1 . The benefits of business travel include on-demand flight scheduling, the ability to conduct business privately during flights, direct access to company sites and reduced travel time. While we acknowledge the slow growth facing the industry today, we believe the strong value proposition for business jets remains uncontested. In the long term, with continued wealth creation in mature markets and increased penetration of business jets in emerging markets, the overall market for business jets will show strong growth. As a result, our long-term forecast remains relatively unchanged from the forecast published last year. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 5
  6. 6. 34%DELIVERY MARKET SHARE 13%INCREASE VERSUS 2013 BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT Strength in numbers 204DELIVERIES 10TH CONSECUTIVE YEAR AS A LEADER1 PROGRAM MILESTONES 2014 ACHIEVEMENTS CHALLENGER 300 SERIES LEARJET 40/45/70/75 SERIES DELIVERED 600AND COUNTING DELIVERED 500AND COUNTING DELIVERED 600AND COUNTING GLOBAL SERIES 1 Delivery unit leader in those segments where Bombardier competes. BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 6
  7. 7. The evolution of these drivers will shape the outlook of the industry Demand generated from the retirement of aircraft Alternatives to full business jet ownership Expansion of economic activity in the world, measured by Gross Domestic Product Expansion of trade from interregional partners to a globally connected economy Growth of the world’s developing markets and the convergence of business jet adoption towards mature market levels Introduction of new and technologically advanced aircraft models into the industry BUSINESS AIRCRAFT MARKET DRIVERS Drivers have a positive relationship with the business aircraft market ACCESSIBILITYREPLACEMENT DEMAND NEW AIRCRAFT PROGRAMS EMERGING MARKETS WEALTH CREATION GLOBALIZATION OF TRADE BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 7
  8. 8. BUSINESS JET FLEET AND WORLDWIDE ECONOMIC GROWTH FLEET (# aircraft) WORLD ECONOMY ($ trillion) 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 18.5 27.3 37.4 49.3 65.2 72.3 830 2,000 4,650 8,650 14,150 15,735 Growth in the business jet fleet has followed growth of the world economy ECONOMIC DRIVERS BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 8
  9. 9. Expanding globalization of trade is driving the need for direct city-to-city access High growth economies are accounting for a greater share of world wealth EXPANDING GLOBALIZATION OF TRADE EMERGENCE OF NEW POCKETS OF GROWTH 2014 72.3 15,735 EMERGING ECONOMIES MATURE ECONOMIES 5% GDP GROWTH 2% GDP GROWTH AVERAGE WORLD GDP 3% ($ trillion) 2014 72.3 15,735 EMERGING ECONOMIES MATURE ECONOMIES 5% GDP GROWTH 2% GDP GROWTH AVERAGE WORLD GDP 3% trillion) ECONOMIC DRIVERS BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 9
  10. 10. Introduction of several new and more capable models stimulates demand and replacement purchase decisions VERY LIGHT LIGHT MEDIUM LARGE LARGE CORPORATE AIRLINERS BOMBARDIER* Learjet 70 Challenger 350 Global 5000 Learjet 75 Challenger 650 Global 6000 Global 7000 Global 8000 CESSNA Mustang CJ4 Citation X+ M2 XLS+ Longitude CJ2+ Latitude CJ3+ Sovereign+ DASSAULT F2000S F7X F2000LXS F5X F900LX F8X EMBRAER Phenom 100 Phenom 300 Legacy 500 Lineage 1000E Legacy 450 Legacy 650 GULFSTREAM G150 G280 G500 G450 G550 G600 G650/G650ER OTHER Hondajet PC-24 ACJ 318/319 SJ30-2 BBJ 1/2/3 Eclipse 550 BBJ Max 8/9 BUSINESS JET MARKET SEGMENTATION In development: 14 In production: 34 * Learjet 85 program on pause INDUSTRY DRIVERS BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 10
  11. 11. Several alternatives to full business aircraft ownership exist that extend the benefits of private jet travel to many users Increased pace of retirements drives demand for replacement aircraft REPLACEMENT DEMAND ACCESSIBILITY 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2014 Cumulative business jet retirements 2,050 699 342 14 Full ownership Branded charter Fractional ownership Jet card programs Air taxis 0 1980 1990 2000 2014 mulative siness jet tirements 2,050 699 342 14 Full ownership Branded charter Fractional ownership Jet card programs Air taxis INDUSTRY DRIVERS BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 11
  12. 12. The outlook for the long-term drivers of business jet demand remains strong The global economy is expected to continue improving. GDP growth is forecasted to cross the 3% threshold by 2016-2017. Several new models will enter service between 2015-2024 which will attract new buyers and stimulate replacement activity. WEALTH CREATION NEW AIRCRAFT PROGRAMS Trade globalization will continue, particularly with and between emerging markets, increasing the need for direct city-to-city access. 1,825 worldwide business aircraft retirements forecasted over the next 10 years will drive increased replacements. GLOBALIZATION OF TRADE REPLACEMENT DEMAND Operators in the charter and fractional market are renewing their fleets. International expansion will drive future growth. Fleet size in these regions is expected to continue growing as business jet adoption approaches mature market levels. EMERGING MARKETS ACCESSIBILITY MARKET DRIVERS OUTLOOK Future projections of key market drivers BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 12
  13. 13. 10 $267 Billion 9,000 Deliveries TOTAL YEARS LIGHT MEDIUM 3,400 38% $39B 15% $91B 34% 3,100 34% LARGE $137B 51% 2,500 28% FORECAST BY AIRCRAFT SIZE CATEGORY 2015-2024 BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 13
  14. 14. Light category aircraft offer intraregional range at an entry-level cost Light category will generate a total of 3,400 deliveries from 2015 to 2024 5,345 690 7,755 3,100 + = - Retirements - 2024 Fleet =Deliveries +2014 Fleet 3.8% - CAGR 2.4% 8,770 1,085 11,085 3,400 + = - Retirements - 2024 Fleet =Deliveries +2014 Fleet CAGR 10-YEAR FORECASTKEY CHARACTERISTICS TYPICAL PURCHASE PRICE $9-20 M CABIN VOLUME1 300 ft3 to 700 ft3 RANGE 2,000 to 3,000 NM FORECAST BY AIRCRAFT SIZE CATEGORY Light category 1 Cabin volume of 8.5 m3 to 19.8 m3 BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 14
  15. 15. Medium category aircraft offer greater cabin comfort, range and speed Medium category will generate a total of 3,100 deliveries from 2015 to 2024 5,345 690 7,755 3,100 + = - Retirements - 2024 Fleet =Deliveries +2014 Fleet 3.8% - CAGR 5,345 690 7,755 3,100 + = - Retirements - 2024 Fleet =Deliveries +2014 Fleet 3.8% - CAGR 10-YEAR FORECASTKEY CHARACTERISTICS TYPICAL PURCHASE PRICE $20-42 M CABIN VOLUME1 700 ft3 to 1,500 ft3 RANGE 3,100 to 5,000 NM FORECAST BY AIRCRAFT SIZE CATEGORY Medium category 1 Cabin volume of 19.8 m3 to 42.5 m3 BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 15
  16. 16. Large category aircraft offer the greatest cabin comfort, range and speed Large category will generate a total of 2,500 deliveries from 2015 to 2024 5,345 690 7,755 3,100 + = - Retirements - 2024 Fleet =Deliveries +2014 Fleet 3.8% - CAGR 1,620 50 4,0702,500 + = - Retirements - 2024 Fleet =Deliveries +2014 Fleet 9.6% CAGR 10-YEAR FORECASTKEY CHARACTERISTICS TYPICAL PURCHASE PRICE $50-72 M CABIN VOLUME1 1,500 ft3 RANGE 5,000 NM FORECAST BY AIRCRAFT SIZE CATEGORY Large category 1 Cabin volume 42.5 m3 BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 16
  17. 17. NORTH AMERICA 3,900 LATIN AMERICA 850 EUROPE 1,525 GREATER CHINA 875 CIS 510 ASIA PACIFIC 355 SOUTH ASIA 310 MIDDLE EAST 400 AFRICA 275 North America, Europe, China and Latin America will be the largest markets for business aircraft over the next 10 years TOTAL 2015-2024: 9,000 DELIVERIES FORECAST BY REGION BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 17
  18. 18. KEY FACTS • Birthplace of business aviation • Largest market for business aircraft 2015-2024 OUTLOOK • Average economic growth of 2.6% per year • Fleet compound annual growth rate of 2% • Will remain the largest market for business aircraft • Forecasted to receive 3,900 deliveries valued at $96 billion • Light and Medium category aircraft account for over 80% of deliveries FORECAST BY CATEGORY ECONOMIC GROWTH FLEET GROWTH 3,900 Units $96 Billion in revenue 2015-2024 INDUSTRY DELIVERIES For the purposes of this forecast, North America includes the United States and Canada. $ U.S. trillion (2010) Units 2014 2024 2014 2024 2.6% 2% $18.1 10,090 12,715 $23.3 LIGHT 2,060 53% $24B 25% $ CAGR CAGR 2014 2024 2014 2024 2.6% 2% $18.1 10,090 12,715 $23.3 CAGR 2014 2024 2014 2024 2.6% 2% $18.1 10,090 12,715 $23.3 LIGHT MEDIUM LARGE 2,060 53% $24B 25% $33B 34% $39B 41% 1,140 29% 700 18% CAGR CAGR FORECAST BY REGION NORTH AMERICA BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 18
  19. 19. FORECAST BY REGION EUROPE 1,525 Units $50 Billion in revenue 2015-2024 INDUSTRY DELIVERIES For the purposes of this forecast, Europe includes the EU27 plus Albania, Andorra, Bosnia, Croatia, Iceland, Kosovo, Liechtenstein, Macedonia, Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, and Switzerland. European fleet and deliveries are adjusted to exclude deliveries to CIS-based owners that register their aircraft in Europe. KEY FACTS • Second largest market for business jet deliveries 2015-2024 OUTLOOK • Average economic growth of 1.8% per year • Fleet compound annual growth rate of 7% • Will remain the second largest market for business jet deliveries • Forecasted to receive 1,525 deliveries valued at $50 billion • Medium and Large category aircraft account for almost 70% of deliveries FORECAST BY CATEGORY ECONOMIC GROWTH FLEET GROWTH Units 2014 2024 2014 2024 1.8% 7% $18.6 1,435 2,850 $22.3 LIGHT 500 33% $5B 10% $ CAGR CAGR 2014 2024 2014 2024 1.8% 7% $18.6 1,435 2,850 $22.3 CAGR 2014 2024 2014 2024 1.8% 7% $18.6 1,435 2,850 $22.3 LIGHT MEDIUM LARGE 500 33% $5B 10% $14B 28% $31B 62% 465 30% 560 37% CAGR CAGR $ U.S. trillion (2010) BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 19
  20. 20. FORECAST BY REGION GREATER CHINA 875 Units $33 Billion in revenue 2015-2024 INDUSTRY DELIVERIES For the purposes of this forecast, Greater China includes China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. KEY FACTS • Exceedingly fast fleet growth over the last 10 years at more than 20% per year 2015-2024 OUTLOOK • Average economic growth of 6.5% per year • Fleet compound annual growth rate of 13% • Forecasted to receive 875 deliveries valued at $33 billion • Medium and Large category aircraft account for 90% of deliveries FORECAST BY CATEGORY ECONOMIC GROWTH FLEET GROWTH Units 2014 2024 2014 2024 6.5% 13% $8.9 1,255 $16.7 LIGHT 90 10%$1B 3% $385 CAGR CAGR 2014 2024 2014 2024 6.5% 13% $8.9 1,255 $16.7 385 CAGR 2014 2024 2014 2024 6.5% 13% $8.9 1,255 $16.7 LIGHT MEDIUM LARGE 90 10%$1B 3% $14B 42% $18B 55% 475 55% 310 35% 385 CAGR CAGR $ U.S. trillion (2010) BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 20
  21. 21. FORECAST BY REGION LATIN AMERICA KEY FACTS • Relatively mature market for business aviation • Brazil and Mexico account for 60% of the regional fleet 2015-2024 OUTLOOK • Average economic growth of 3.3% per year • Fleet compound annual growth rate of 3% • Forecasted to receive 850 deliveries valued at $24 billion • Light and Medium category aircraft account for 75% of deliveries 850 Units $24 Billion in revenue 2015-2024 INDUSTRY DELIVERIES For the purposes of this forecast, Latin America includes all countries between the Rio Grande and Cape Horn. FORECAST BY CATEGORY ECONOMIC GROWTH FLEET GROWTH Units 2014 2024 2014 2024 3.3% 3% $5.7 1,925 2,505 $7.9 LIGHT 350 41% $4B 17% CAGR CAGR 2014 2024 2014 2024 3.3% 3% $5.7 1,925 2,505 $7.9 CAGR 2014 2024 2014 2024 3.3% 3% $5.7 1,925 2,505 $7.9 LIGHT MEDIUM LARGE 350 41% $4B 17% $9B 37% $11B 46% 290 34% 210 25% CAGR CAGR $ U.S. trillion (2010) BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 21
  22. 22. FORECAST BY REGION CIS 510 Units $16 Billion in revenue 2015-2024 INDUSTRY DELIVERIES KEY FACTS • Business aviation in CIS began in the early 1990s • Fleet has grown by nearly 7% per year since the early 1990s 2015-2024 OUTLOOK • Average economic growth of 2.4% per year • Fleet compound annual growth rate of 6% • Forecasted to receive 510 deliveries valued at $16 billion • Medium and Large category aircraft account for over 80% of deliveries FORECAST BY CATEGORY ECONOMIC GROWTH FLEET GROWTH Units 2014 2024 2014 2024 2.4% 6% $2.2 555 1,035 $2.8 LIGHT 90 18% $1B 6% CAGR CAGR 2014 2024 2014 2024 2.4% 6% $2.2 555 1,035 $2.8 CAGR 2014 2024 2014 2024 2.4% 6% $2.2 555 1,035 $2.8 LIGHT MEDIUM LARGE 90 18% $1B 6% $9B 56% $6B 38% 290 57% 130 25% CAGR CAGR $ U.S. trillion (2010) For the purposes of this forecast, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 22
  23. 23. FORECAST BY REGION MIDDLE EAST 400 Units $15 Billion in revenue 2015-2024 INDUSTRY DELIVERIES For the purposes of this forecast, the Middle East region also includes Turkey. KEY FACTS • Remains a promising market for business aviation • Long distances between cities and difficult ground transportation justify the need for business aviation 2015-2024 OUTLOOK • Average economic growth of 4.0% per year • Fleet compound annual growth rate of 7% • Forecasted to receive 400 deliveries valued at $15 billion • Medium and Large category aircraft remain the aircraft of choice FORECAST BY CATEGORY ECONOMIC GROWTH FLEET GROWTH Units 2014 2024 2014 2024 4% 7% $3.3 410 780 $4.9 LIGHT 60 15% $1B 7% CAGR CAGR 2014 2024 2014 2024 4% 7% $3.3 410 780 $4.9 CAGR 2014 2024 2014 2024 4% 7% $3.3 410 780 $4.9 LIGHT MEDIUM LARGE 60 15% $1B 7% $5B 33% $9B 60% 180 45% 160 40% CAGR CAGR $ U.S. trillion (2010) BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 23
  24. 24. FORECAST BY REGION ASIA PACIFIC 355 Units $14 Billion in revenue 2015-2024 INDUSTRY DELIVERIES For the purposes of this forecast, Asia Pacific excludes Greater China and South Asia. KEY FACTS • Geographic position necessitates the need for long range aircraft 2015-2024 OUTLOOK • Average economic growth of 2.5% per year • Fleet compound annual growth rate of 6% • Forecasted to receive 355 deliveries valued at $14 billion • Large category aircraft account for close to 60% of deliveries FORECAST BY CATEGORY ECONOMIC GROWTH FLEET GROWTH Units 2014 2024 2014 2024 2.5% 6% $10.8 405 720 $13.8 LIGHT 80 22% $1B 7% CAGR CAGR 2014 2024 2014 2024 2.5% 6% $10.8 405 720 $13.8 CAGR 2014 2024 2014 2024 2.5% 6% $10.8 405 720 $13.8 LIGHT MEDIUM LARGE 80 22% $1B 7% $2B 14% $11B 79% 70 20% 205 58% CAGR CAGR $ U.S. trillion (2010) BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 24
  25. 25. FORECAST BY REGION SOUTH ASIA 310 Units $12 Billion in revenue 2015-2024 INDUSTRY DELIVERIES For the purposes of this forecast, Asia Pacific includes Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bhutan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Nepal. KEY FACTS • Continues to develop its regional business aviation market • Infrastructure and regulatory environment continue to slowly improve 2015-2024 OUTLOOK • Average economic growth of 7% per year • Fleet compound annual growth rate of 12% • Forecasted to receive 310 deliveries valued at $12 billion • Large category aircraft account for over 50% of deliveries FORECAST BY CATEGORY ECONOMIC GROWTH FLEET GROWTH Units 2014 2024 2014 2024 7% 12% $2.6 150 455 $5.1 LIGHT 70 23% $1B 8% CAGR CAGR 2014 2024 2014 2024 7% 12% $2.6 150 455 $5.1 CAGR 2014 2024 2014 2024 7% 12% $2.6 150 455 $5.1 LIGHT MEDIUM LARGE 70 23% $1B 8% $2B 17% $9B 75% 80 25% 160 52% CAGR CAGR $ U.S. trillion (2010) BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 25
  26. 26. FORECAST BY REGION AFRICA 275 Units $7 Billion in revenue 2015-2024 INDUSTRY DELIVERIES KEY FACTS • Important market for business aircraft deliveries • Fleet size has more than doubled in the past 10 years 2015-2024 OUTLOOK • Average economic growth of 4.8% per year • Fleet compound annual growth rate of 5% • Forecasted to receive 275 deliveries valued at $7 billion • Light and Medium category aircraft account for over 75% of deliveries FORECAST BY CATEGORY ECONOMIC GROWTH FLEET GROWTH Units 2014 2024 2014 2024 4.8% 5% $2.2 380 595 $3.5 LIGHT 100 36% $1B 14% CAGR CAGR 2014 2024 2014 2024 4.8% 5% $2.2 380 595 $3.5 CAGR 2014 2024 2014 2024 4.8% 5% $2.2 380 595 $3.5 LIGHT MEDIUM LARGE 100 36% $1B 14% $3B 43% $3B 43% 110 40% 65 24% CAGR CAGR $ U.S. trillion (2010) BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 26
  27. 27. CONCLUSION In 2014, business aviation continued on its path towards recovery. Though industry orders lagged, deliveries increased by 6% compared to the previous year. Over the next 10 years, we expect Large category aircraft will represent half of overall revenues at $137 billion while Medium and Light category aircraft will represent $91 billion and $39 billion respectively. Emerging markets like China, Russia, and Latin America will once again be key drivers to future growth as current challenges in these markets subside. Our 2015 edition of the Business Aircraft Market Forecast predicts a promising future for business aviation in the years ahead. With the most extensive product portfolio of any manufacturer, Bombardier is well positioned to lead the industry forward. RESOURCES Ascend Asian Sky Group BCA – Business Commercial Aviation Magazine GAMA – General Aviation Manufacturers Association IBAC – International Business Aviation Council IHS Global Insight World Economic Outlook, January 2015 JETNET NEXA Advisors This presentation can be found on BUSINESSAIRCRAFT.BOMBARDIER.COM 27

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