As a Project Management professional, I have keen interest on how best to handle the risk attributed to weather. It's not surprising that a common approach to Weather Modeling is by using Historical Records. The fact that the weather is cyclical gave me some confidence that this approach makes some sense if not a lot of sense. Of course, just like most people, I do have my doubts if there's anybody who can do a better job than the next person forecasting the weather. We often hear that a child can do it. Birds have it all figured out. Afterall, we all joke about the weatherman getting it consistently wrong. In spite of this, I cannot help but try and check an acceptable modelling technique that can be used as a main tool to predict what weather risk lies ahead. By predicting the probability of some weather parameters such as temperature, humidity, etc within a recurring timeline (respecting the cycle), the project team can have a better handle of many challenging situations. The best mitigation response plan can be figured out. While there might be many models that can be perceived, the one referred to in here is probably the more simplistic. We have a chance to move away from being a "cross your finger" project. Cheers,---Rufran

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COLLECT & GATHER
HISTORICAL
WEATHER
INFORMATION
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ZERO IN
ON THE FOCAL
ACTIVITY
TIMELINE
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ANALYZE ACTIVITY
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PILING
SEP FOUNDATION
OCT
DEC
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SEP OCT FOUNDATION
DEC
PILING
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Theoretical Example
Activity : Piling-Bridge Construction
Requirements/specifications: (1)
1. If temperature is below 0 deg C, heated concrete piles shall be used.
2. Concrete piles should have a temperature of between 15 deg C & 25 deg C
when placed.
3. When the ground against which pile concrete is placed is below -5 deg C, the
concrete shall be protected from heat loss. The pile boring shall be made
oversize down to the depth of 2 meter, and the concrete shall be poured in an
insulated form. Concrete at the top of the pile is to be insulated.
4. After four days the form and insulation may be removed, and the space is to be
backfilled immediately with compacted non-granular fill or lean concrete to the
elevation of top of pile.
5. In a region where the ground temperature is above -10C but below -5C, the hole
may be bored 100 mm diameter oversize, and filled directly with pile concrete,
as an alternative to the procedure described above. Concrete at the top of the
pile is to be insulated. 9

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ANALYZE ACTIVITY
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No. 1 & 3
VERSUS
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Requirement 1:
If temperature is below 0 deg C, heated concrete piles shall be used.
Requirement 3:
When the ground against which pile concrete is placed is below -5 deg C, the
concrete shall be protected from heat loss. The pile boring shall be made
oversize down to the depth of 2 meter, and the concrete shall be poured in an
insulated form. Concrete at the top of the pile is to be insulated.
Given:
• Mean Temperatures in the last 6 years (Oct/Dec) were below 0 deg C at
75% of the time, and,
• Those below -5 deg C @ 39% of the time.
Response Plan:
• 75% heated concrete piles shall be used.
• 75% probability shall be used in the additional cost calculation relating to
Requirement #1.
• Use 39% probability in all calculation relating to Requirement #2.
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Continue with
a more or less
Similar Approach
to all
Weather Risks
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REFERENCE
• 2012, Excerpt from Bridge Bearing Piles, Alberta Transportation, Page 3-10,
Specifications for Bridge Construction Section 3, Bearing Piles. Paraphrase
from an Internet pdf file-
www.transportation.alberta.ca/Content/docType246/.../07bcs03.pdf
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