CLIMATE CHANGE, SEA-LEVEL RISE and COASTAL GEOLOGIC HAZARDS
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CLIMATE CHANGE, SEA-LEVEL RISE and COASTAL GEOLOGIC HAZARDS URI Climate Change Symposium 5 May 2011 Jon C. Boothroyd Rhode Island State Geologist, Research Professor Emeritus – Quaternary Geology ------------- Rhode Island Geological Survey and Department of Geosciences College of the Environment and Life Sciences University of Rhode Island jon_boothroyd@uri.edu
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CLIMATE CHANGE, SEA-LEVEL RISE and COASTAL GEOLOGIC HAZARDS
- 1. CLIMATE CHANGE, SEA-LEVEL RISE and COASTAL GEOLOGIC HAZARDS URI Climate Change Symposium 5 May 2011 Jon C. Boothroyd Rhode Island State Geologist, Research Professor Emeritus – Quaternary Geology ------------- Rhode Island Geological Survey and Department of Geosciences College of the Environment and Life Sciences University of Rhode Island jon_boothroyd@uri.edu
- 2. Laurentide Ice Flow Directions You are here - Stone and Sirkin, 1996
- 3. Map Generated By: BA Oakley and JC Boothroyd
- 4. Oakley, 2011 Charlestown Moraine Ice margins modified from: Dyke and Prest, 1987 Ridge, 2010; Goss, 1993 Smith, 2010
- 5. Oakley, 2011 Ice margins modified from: Dyke and Prest, 1987 Ridge, 2010; Goss, 1993 Smith, 2010
- 6. Granitic Till Upland QUATERNARY DEPOSITS OF RHODE ISLAND Thick Stratified Deposits Narragansett structural basin Compact Till Upland EXPLANATION Stratified Material Till End Moraine - Till and You are here Stratified Material Miles 0 5 10 15 Block Island Kilometers Complex 0 5 10 20 30
- 7. Braided River on a Delta Plain A GLACIAL DEPOSITIONAL - ENVIRONMENT
- 8. Facies Deposited in a Glacial Lake Depositional Environment Imbricated Gravel Facies deposited on a delta plain Stratified Coarse- Stratified Coarse- - Medium Sand Facies Medium Sand Facies deposited on a delta deposited on a delta slope slope
- 9. Eustatic Sea-Level Rise + Isostatic Rebound Laurentide at Ice Sheet? Laurentide 2m.100yr-1 Ice Sheet? Block Island 2m.100yr-1 Antarctic Antarctic Ice Ice Sheet? Sheet? 2-5m.100yr-1 2-5m.100yr-1 Explanation Oakley and Boothroyd, in prep 2011
- 10. Post-Glacial Lake Atlantic Ocean
- 11. Post-Glacial Lake Estuary Atlantic Ocean
- 12. - 4 m below present 5,000 yBP
- 13. The Sea May Be Rising – But….. Narragansett Pier Seawall – Patriots Day 2007 WPRI.com 16 apr 2007
- 15. GEOLOGIC SHORE ZONE TYPES Percent • Beach Plain and Barrier Spit 25 • Glacial Stratified Bluff 8 • Till Bluff 23 • Metamorphosed Sedimentary Bedrock 8 • Igneous and Other Meta Bedrock 5 • Discontinuous Bedrock 1 • Shoreline Protection Structure 30
- 16. Southeast Wind Northeast Wind From Wright and Sullivan, 1982
- 17. Patriots Day Extratropical Storm – April 2007 Newport Tide Gauge SET UP PREDICTED http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ STORM SURGE data_menu.shtml?stn=8452660%20Newport,%20RI&type=Tide+Data
- 18. Overwash - Browning Cottages RE Hehre
- 19. Frontal Erosion - Browning Cottages BA Oakley
- 20. Frontal Erosion 1939-2006 - Browning Cottages 2006 1939
- 22. Tidal Datums Newport HEIGHT NOW New MSL Old “MSL” Adapted from: www.ngs.noaa.gov/newsys-cgi- bin/ngs_opsd.prl?PID=LW0493& EPOCH=1983-2001
- 23. How High will the Water Be? Boothroyd and Hehre 2008 9.46 Feet Above MHHW Tidal Heights Newport Adapted from: www.ngs.noaa.gov/newsys-cgi- bin/ngs_opsd.prl?PID=LW0493&EPOCH=1983-2001
- 24. Frequency…? Next Month…. Next Year Adapted from NOAA; USACE 1988; Hehre 2007
- 25. Charlestown Beach ves rge plus Wa rS torm Su 100 yea Overwash RE Hehre
- 26. Charlestown Beach, RI Storm Surge Overwash With Washover Fan Feb 1985
- 27. Charlestown Beach – Hurricane Bob 1991 Washover Fan Deposition Removal is a Bad Idea ……. Barriers Naturally Retreat Landward and Upward Aug 1991
- 28. Lastly, Climate Change and the Future Shore Zone of Rhode Island
- 30. THE HOCKEY STICK Temp lags CO2 Medieval Warm Little Ice Period Age Moberg et al, 2005
- 31. Greenland Outlet Glaciers Change from Polythermal to Warm Based A Key to Future Sea-Level Rise Brathwaite, 2002
- 32. HEIGHT NOW Adapted from: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/ sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8452660%20Newport,%20RI Boothroyd 2011
- 33. Observed Global Sea Level Rise ... Accelerating ter i me IPCC 18 cm rise since 1900 e Alt 2001 Current rate: llit 3.3 cm per decade Sate estimate es Gaug Tide Rahmstorf, Cazenave, Church, Hansen, Keeling, Parker and Somerville (Science 2007)
- 35. Global Sea Level Linked to Global Temperature Projection of Sea-Level Rise 1990 - 2100 Using IPCC 2007 Temperature Projections Extreme Projection IPCC 2007 Vermeer and Rahmstorf, 2009, PNAS, v106, p 21537-21532
- 36. VR B1
- 37. VR A1F1
- 38. VR Max
- 39. Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons 2003 – 2004 Orthophoto
- 40. Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons 1938 Storm Surge + SL Rise 11 ft above MHHW
- 41. Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons 1938 Storm Surge + SL Rise 11 ft above MHHW
- 42. Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons 2003 – 2004 Orthophoto
- 43. Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons 2100 Inundation – 5 ft 200 ft Barrier Migration
- 44. Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons 2100 Inundation – 5 ft 200 ft Barrier Migration
- 45. Coastal Rhode Island – A Common View of the Future Don Bousquet, June 2008