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Mike Tarlton Briefing to Williams Fondation Seminar on Joint Strike, August 2232, 2018

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Mike Tarlton, Director, Advanced Programs, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems, provided a look at advanced unmanned concepts as a way to enhance independent RAAF strike capability.

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Mike Tarlton Briefing to Williams Fondation Seminar on Joint Strike, August 2232, 2018

  1. 1. Advanced Unmanned Concepts—Considerations for Maintaining an Independent RAAF Strike Capability 23 August 2018 Mike Tarlton Director, Advanced Programs Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18
  2. 2. Why Unmanned, Stealthy and Refuelable? Life Cycle Cost Effectiveness Summary RAAF Potential Areas of Interest Persistent Sortie Decomposition Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18
  3. 3. 3 RAAF Learmonth 854 nm RAAF Pearce 2,235 nm RAAF Darwin 1,690 nm RAAF Potential Areas of Interest Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18
  4. 4. Why Unmanned, Stealthy and Refuelable? Life Cycle Cost Effectiveness Summary RAAF Potential Areas of Interest Persistent Sortie Decomposition Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18
  5. 5. Why Unmanned, Stealthy, and Refuelable? •Massive increase in mission/combat endurance •Enhanced survivability in persistent operations •No aircrew capture/casualty risk •Significant potential cost-effectiveness advantages—particularly life-cycle cost Decoupling the Human from the Aircraft to Increase Capability, Decrease Cost/Risk 5 Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18
  6. 6. 6 Payload UCAV BASIC Requirements All must be based on analysis – and must be correct from the start EnduranceRange Survivability Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18
  7. 7. 7 The BASIC Requirements All must be based on analysis – and must be correct from the start EnduranceRange Survivability Finding the right – and affordable – balanceFinding the right – and affordable – balance Payload Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18
  8. 8. Range Endurance PayloadSurvivability 8 The BASIC Requirements All must be based on analysis – and must be correct from the start Range requirement a result of: • Threat analyses: how much range is enough? • Tankers: stand off distance from threats Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18
  9. 9. Range PayloadSurvivability Endurance 9 All must be based on analysis – and must be correct from the start Endurance ~ Persistence • Aerial refueling allows optimal balance between endurance and payload • 8-10 hour endurance (unrefueled) tactical air vehicles are feasible The BASIC Requirements Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18
  10. 10. EnduranceRange PayloadSurvivability The BASIC Requirements All must be based on analysis – and must be correct from the start Survivability Stealth: Broadband and All Aspect • Rqt based solely on projected threat analysis • Not retrofittable – set with airframe design 10 Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18
  11. 11. Survivability: The Kill Chain 11 Progression through the kill chain involves transition from low-frequency surveillance radars to medium/high-frequency targeting radars Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18
  12. 12. EnduranceRange PayloadSurvivability 12 The BASIC Requirements All must be based on analysis – and must be correct from the start Multi-role Mission Payloads • ISR/T – EW – STRIKE • Flexible payload bays • Both air-to-surface and air-to-air roles Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18
  13. 13. Why Unmanned, Stealthy and Refuelable? Life Cycle Cost Effectiveness Summary RAAF Potential Areas of Interest Persistent Sortie Decomposition Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18
  14. 14. 14 Assumptions: •Vehicle characteristics 460 1,500 50 90 2 30 Kts 460 Kts nm 1000 nm hrs 10 hrs % 90 % hrs 2 hrs min 30 min •Fuel reserve requirement -Cruise speed -Organic radius -Max sortie endurance -Fleet availability rate -Turnaround time -In-flight Refueling duration 5 % (150 nm/20 mins) Persistent Sortie Decomposition Unmanned to Manned Comparison Note: the aircraft depicted here and throughout this presentation are conceptual. Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18
  15. 15. Manned Air Base at 1,690 nm Air Base at 1,690 nm UCAV UCAV vs. Manned System Persistence Sortie Decomposition Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/1815
  16. 16. 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 2.6 0.0 0 2.6 0.0 0 Manned Air Base at 1,690 nm UCAV UCAV vs. Manned System Persistence Sortie Decomposition 2.8 0.0 1 2.8 0.0 1 3.9 0.0 1 3.9 0.0 1 On-Station 2.2 hours 6.1 2.2 1 6.1 2.2 1 500 nm 1.1 hours 7.2 3.3 1 7.2 2.2 1 7.4 3.5 1 7.4 2.2 1 1,190 nm 2.6 hours 500 nm 1.1 hours 8.3 4.4 1 8.3 2.2 1 500 nm 1.1 hours 9.3 4.4 1 9.3 2.2 1 1,190 nm 2.6 hours Refuel 0.2 hour 9.8 4.4 2 9.8 2.2 1 10.0 4.4 2 10.0 2.2 1• Begin 2 hour end-of-sortie turnaround maintenance • The manned system makes single ingress into defended airspace (and is forced off station by aircrew endurance limit). • The manned system total sortie cycle time is 12.0 hours, generating 2.2 hours on station. 10.9 4.4 2 10.9 2.2 1 On-Station 4.4 hours 500 nm 1.1 hour 12.0 5.5 2 12.0 2.2 1 Total Time hrs Time On Station hrs Ingress Refuel CumulativeScorecard Total Time hrs Time On Station hrs Ingress Refuel CumulativeScorecard End Air Base at 1,690 nm Turnaround Maintenance 2.0 hours Refuel 0.5 hourRefuel 0.2 hour Refuel 0.5 hour Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/1816
  17. 17. 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 Manned UCAV UCAV vs. Manned System Persistence Sortie Decomposition Air Base at 1,690 nm On-Station 2.2 hours 500 nm 1.1 hours 1,190 nm 2.6 hours 500 nm 1.1 hours Turnaround Maintenance 2.0 hours End 12.0 5.5 2 12.0 2.2 1 15.3 8.8 2 12.0 2.2 1• Begin 2 hour end-of-sortie turnaround maintenance • The manned system makes single ingress into defended airspace (and is forced off station by aircrew endurance limit). • The manned system total sortie cycle time is 12.0 hours, generating 2.2 hours on station. 16.3 8.8 2 12.0 2.2 1 16.8 8.8 3 12.0 2.2 1 On-Station 4.4 hours 500 nm 1.1 hour Refuel 0.5 hour 17.9 8.8 3 12.0 2.2 1 22.3 13.2 3 12.0 2.2 1 23.3 13.2 3 12.0 2.2 1 23.8 13.2 4 12.0 2.2 1 24.9 13.2 4 12.0 2.2 1 29.3 17.6 4 12.0 2.2 1 30.3 17.6 4 12.0 2.2 1 30.8 17.6 5 12.0 2.2 1 31.9 17.6 5 12.0 2.2 1 36.3 22.0 5 12.0 2.2 1 37.3 22.0 5 12.0 2.2 1 37.8 22.0 6 12.0 2.2 1 38.9 22.0 6 12.0 2.2 1 43.3 26.4 6 12.0 2.2 1 44.3 26.4 6 12.0 2.2 1 44.6 26.4 6 12.0 2.2 1 500 nm 1.1 hours 47.2 26.4 6 12.0 2.2 1 1,190 nm 2.6 hours • Total of 6 ingresses into defended airspace. Turnaround Maintenance 2.0 hours • Including 2 hour end-of-sortie turnaround maintenance, the total sortie cycle time is 49.2 hours, generating 26.4 hours on station. 49.2 26.4 6 12.0 2.2 1 Total Time hrs Time On Station hrs Ingress Refuel CumulativeScorecard Total Time hrs Time On Station hrs Ingress Refuel CumulativeScorecard Air Base at 1,690 nm End Refuel 0.5 hour Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/1817
  18. 18. Why Unmanned, Stealthy and Refuelable? Life Cycle Cost Effectiveness Summary RAAF Potential Areas of Interest Persistent Sortie Decomposition Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18
  19. 19. 19 ~10% ~5%~25% ~60% Defining “Life Cycle Cost” Historical Aircraft Life-Cycle Cost Composition R&D Cost Investment Cost Operational and Support Cost Disposal Cost Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18
  20. 20. 20 Thinking about Pilot v. UAS Operator Training Training Category Pilot Flight Hour Burden Pilot Command- Function UAS Basic Flight Skills and Specific Platform Flight Skills 200-300 Flight Hours Before Squadron Assignment Unavoidable: Simulation already heavily used MMCS functions: little value added from actual flight hours Ongoing Flight Skills Certification Training Up to 30 Hours per Month/AC [Combat Substitutes] Unavoidable: Automation could plausibly reduce MMCS functions: little value added from actual flight hours Live Fire Exercises Infrequent Unavoidable Unavoidable End-to-End Mission Exercises Infrequent Unavoidable Unavoidable Joint Manned- Unmanned Exercises Infrequent – but will increase Unavoidable Unavoidable Maintainer Training None [Automatic benefit] Can be scheduled, if otherwise insufficient, very little need for additional flight hours Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18
  21. 21. 21 Advantage of Unmanned Aircraft Don’t Buy To Train – Don’t Fly To Train therefore Don’t Buy As Many – Don’t Fly As Much Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18
  22. 22. Why Unmanned, Stealthy and Refuelable? Life Cycle Cost Effectiveness Summary RAAF Potential Areas of Interest Persistent Sortie Decomposition Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18

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