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VisionMobile

Mobile Megatrends 2011
how telecoms business is transforming in the software era.   updated 8 March 2011
                                                             Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Knowledge. Passion. Innovation.




                                                                                 Andreas Constantinou
                                                                                   Michael Vakulenko
                                                                                   Matos Kapetanakis
                                                                                             (c) VisionMobile 2011



Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License (http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)
You are free to Share or Remix any part of this work as long as you attribute this work to VisionMobile (www.visionmobile.com).

                                                                                                  Copyright VisionMobile 2011
VisionMobile research
Distilling market noise into market sense
Research                             Training                                Market maps                           Strategy definition
competitive analysis,                open source economics,                  Competitive landscape maps of         strategy design, ecosystem
commissioned research,               Android commercials,                    the mobile industry                   positioning, product definition
company due diligence                mobile industry dynamics

              Developer
              Economics 2010:
              Everything on mobile
              development




Active Idle Screen                   Open Source Chessboard
Who will own the                     business impacts of mobile open                                                Mobile Megatrends series
                                     source, the competitive landscape and   Mobile Industry Atlas, 3rd ed.
screen?                                                                      1,100+ companies, 69 market sectors
                                     how to design your company strategy


                                                                                                                   Top-100 analyst blog
                                                                                                                   4,000+ subscribers
                                                                                                                   20,000+ monthly uniques
                                                                                                                   90% mobile industry insiders
             GPLv2 vs GPLv3
             White Paper


                                     The Android Game Plan
                                     the commercial mechanics                100 million club
                                     behind Android and how                  tracking successful businesses
                                     Google runs the show                    in mobile




                                                                                                                   Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Trusted by industry brands
Clients




              selected
   VisionMobile clients
           2008-2010

                                   Copyright VisionMobile 2011
                             Copyright VisionMobile 2007-2010
Mobile Megatrends 2011



The DELL-ification of mobile                      Software: new era for telecoms                    Experience ecosystems
How the mobile handset landscape is               and the new rules for innovation                  how telecoms + internet convergence
becoming much like the PC                                                                           is leading to the next megabrands




Apps are the new web                              open + closed                                     Developers, developers
Why apps are the new information                  use of open + closed strategies to                the engine behind telecoms innovation
paradigm for web 3.0                              commoditise + protect




Communities: a new currency                       Stuck in the telecoms age                        Augmented Economics
Communities will provide the main                 how carriers are stuck in the telecoms age and   making money at the edge of reality
differentiation above price, design and content    how to compete
                                                                                                         Copyright VisionMobile 2011
The DELL-ification of mobile
How the mobile handset market is approaching PC-like commoditisation




                                                      Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Internet players agenda drive top-5 OEMs
 and OEM market is fragmenting, approaching the PC market



  !"""                !""!               !""#$   !""%$   !""&$             '($!")"$




Market share of top-5 OEMs (source: Gartner)

    !$#               $%#                $&#     '"*     '(#                    !"#

                                                                 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Profits are driven by end-to-end players
and away from the old top-5 OEM league




                                         source: Deutsche Bank


                                          Copyright VisionMobile 2011
OEM strategies: volume vs profit strategies
                                             = strategy expectations
$ profit per unit




                                          data source: Deutsche Bank
                    2010 market share %
                                           Copyright VisionMobile 2011
OEMs at different stages of integration
 Three roles for handset manufacturers across the double helix

Horizontal player structure                                                             Vertical player structure
                                                              Leaders: new product experiences
                                                              and enviable margins




Assemblers
razon-thin
margins



                   wannabee
                   innovators
                                        wannabee
                                        leaders




                      Innovators: incremental innovation
                      strong brand, performance, good looks
                      and services
                                                                                          Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Lead, innovate or assemble
The new role models for OEMs in the post-Android era


1. Assemblers: Razor-thin margins
10s of assemblers use Android to deliver ready-to-market smartphones with complete service and apps
ecosystem competing head-to-head with major OEMs. iPhone me-too experience at $100 retail.

2. Leaders: unique product experiences
Manufacturers who can masterfully integrate hardware + software + services + industrial design into new
product experiences - from phones and tablets to TVs. Unique product experiences at $500 retail.

3. Innovators: incremental innovation
The old top-5 OEM guard. Differentiation is on strong brand, performance, good looks and services.

4. Mass producers: catering to developing markets                               ?
Mass producers rely on huge economies of scale to break even at $50, but make up nearly 50% of unit sales
in the mobile handset market.




                                                                                 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
The innovators are squeezed in

                                                         Revenue pyramid



          performance
          pressure                                                                       Leaders:
                                                                                         new product experiences




                                                                                          Innovators:
                                                                                          incremental innovation




                                                                                          Assemblers:
          price                                                                           razor-thin margins
          pressure



Pyramid squeeze is accelerated by Google’s Experience handsets (fast hardware/software evolution) and Windows Phone

                                                                                             Copyright VisionMobile 2011
DELLification in 2015
    closely modelling the PC business

   Profit pyramid     Revenue pyramid                                                 Present-day example



                                                               Leaders
                                                               Role model: Apple
                         $37.5B         5% @ $500


                                                               Innovators
                                                               Role model: Samsung
                                  $90B          25% @ $250


                                                               Assemblers
                                                               Role model: Dell

                                         $56B         25% @ $100
         s
       ce




                                                               Mass producers
     vi




                                                               Role model: Nokia                                 ?
   de




                                                 $37.5B      45% @ $50
    B
1.5




                      $200B
                                                                                   Copyright VisionMobile 2011
OEM + Android: winners and losers

The winners:                                          The losers:
low cost assemblers                                   ‘old guard’ OEMs
Cost structure optimised for razor-thin margins       Cost structure requires high-margins
Android is a long-term opportunity for global reach   Android is a short-term life support




                        No Name


                                                                                 source: VisionMobile

                                                                                  Copyright VisionMobile 2011
The new world: Innovate or be replaced
The new rules of the handset industry


1. Software and hardware is commodity
- Software is a loss-leader, monetised by ads (Google), hardware (Apple), content (Amazon), services (RIM)
- Software is provided a la carte and pre-integrated by chipset providers (e.g. Qualcomm, MediaTek)



2. Points of differentiation rapidly disappearing
- Android provides out-of-the-box, complete ecosystems; OEMs compete on equal footing to assemblers


3. The search for innovation is on
OEMs are search for new models of innovation beyond price, brand, performance and marketing:
- communities BlackBerry messaging or facebook deals
- made-to-order handsets; copying DELL’s PC model
- white label services for carriers where OEMs trade service revenues for carrier subsidies
- micro-retailing ‘slotting’ promos across distribution regions and channels
                                                                                    Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Software: the new era for telecoms
         and the new rules for innovation




image source: maschinenraum / Flickr
                                            Copyright VisionMobile 2011
$$$ and software DNA are key for platforms
20 dead platforms in the last 10 years
Internet




                                      Danger OS
                                                                                                     Android                  Chrome OS




                                              SavaJe OS
PC




            Trolltech $30M
                                                           A la Mobile
                                                                                            iOS


            Nokia GEOS                   IXI Mobile       Palm 5/6         Azingo

                                          Motorola L-J    Comneon Apoxi      Access ALP
Mobile




                                                e-SIM      Intrinsyc OS     OpenWave MIDAS

                                                          Sasken Aria       Mizi Prizm

                                                          SKY-MAP         MOAP
                                                  UIQ      TTPCom Ajar      OpenMoko




                   2000       2001       2002                                        2007     2008      2009         2010
           = dead end        bubble size = company revenues                                                    Copyright VisionMobile 2011
The battle for mass-market smartphone reach

                                           OEM internal                                          licensable
                      !600+
                              computers
                              mobile




                      !400
device retail price




                              connected




                                            Nokia Series 40
                              phones




                                             Samsung SHP
                      !100                         LG Wise


                       !50
                              phones
                              voice




                                                                  Note: OSes omitted: Myriad, Mediatek OS, Mango (Qualcomm), Koretide Elastos



                               14 out of 15 platforms are monetised indirectly by complementary products
                               11 out of 15 platforms have developer ecosystems or industry consortia built around them
                                                                                                                   Copyright VisionMobile 2011
The battle for ecosystem completeness

                        Carriers           Nokia   RIM   Apple   Qualcomm    Google               facebook

Components

Social networks


Cloud services


Developer ecosystem


Network


User interface


Operating system


Hardware IP


Manufacturing


            denotes where vendor started
                                                                            Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Huge gap between telecoms & software worlds




                                                              success as
                                                              defined in
                                                              2010
success as
defined in
2005




                                      Copyright VisionMobile 2011
software: turning telecoms upside down
           VA3#234+53#41G#N::1#L8?87-W#XX#C+1+-.D-E+,3#Y3138?5A#
                               234+531#6-,7#0-#7803#9/:#0-#;%#)'"'<#                                                                J/*E3?#-K#8::1#848+,8E,3#+.#8::#10-?31#9;%#)'"'<#

                                                                             !"!#                      6>*E+8.#            $&%''#
                                                          internalised

                                                                                       $!#              +LA-.3#                                                                                   )H'&'''#
                                                                                                         9+M6<#
                                                                                                                                                                                                             the new
                                                                                       !!#              N.7?-+7#                                    I'&'''#                                                  networks

         %&%''#                                                                                         O848#DP#                       !(&'''#

                                                                                                                                                 dual
stasis                                                                               ""(#              Q,85RQ3??>#          "'&'''#
                                                                                                                                              personality

                                back to                "&(''#                                            S,81A#            (&'''#
                                                                                                          T+03#
                              square one                                                                                                back to
                                                                                                       U+.7-F1#
                                                                                                  '#                      I''#        square one
             *+,,+-.#/.+01#                                                                             LA-.3#                                                                                  8::1#

         %&(''#      %&'''#        )&(''#     )&'''#       "&(''#   "&'''#    (''#           '#                      '#             ('&'''#       "''&'''#    "('&'''#   )''&'''#    )('&'''#     %''&'''#

             =-:>?+@A0#B#C+1+-.D-E+,3#)'"'#
             FFFG4+1+-.*-E+,3G5-*#




                                                                                                                                                                                    Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Huge gap between telecoms & software worlds
                       Telecoms world                    Software world

Success factor         installed base                    number of apps
Primary customer       consumer                          developer
Speed of innovation    1 OS version every 2 years        5 OS versions/year
Time to market         1-2 years                         1-2 weeks
Type of services       comms-centric                     catering to entire needs portfolio
Risk-taking            predictability / de-risking       entrepreneurship / uncertainty
Access to innovation   100s of close partners            100,000s of developers
Business model         B2B licensing                     B2C sales/ads/in-app sales
Channel to market      voice, text and web               smartphones
Discovery              On deck / on device               App store
First step             “we need to sign an NDA”          “we need to download the SDK”
Process                Waterfall: RFI, RFQ, deliver, QA Agile: add feature, build, test, repeat

Attitude               “developers will come to us”      “we need to go to developers”
                                                                        Copyright VisionMobile 2011
The new rules of innovation
1. Speed of innovation defined by internet companies, not hardware / networks
- Companies from the Internet domain (Apple, Google, Facebook) out-innovate companies from the mobile
industry domain (Nokia, Samsung, Sun) and the networks domain (Vodafone, China Mobile)
- Internet players are at top of the food chain and are becoming increasingly assertive
- Yet network operators still hold most value (insights and retail channels) in the last mile to the consumer


2. Innovation requires new competence and regional presence
- California is the center for software and services innovation. Japan/Korea is the center of CE innovation.


3. If you can’t innovate in software, you will be replaced
- The evolutionary game has just accelerated 10-fold.
- Players who cannot evolve at software speeds will eventually be replaced by alternatives
(oftware has superseded carrier efforts in non-comms user needs, location, billing, discovery, authentication
and mobile termination)
                                                                                    Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Experience Ecosystems
telecoms + internet convergence is leading to experience ecosystems




                                                         Copyright VisionMobile 2011
telecoms + internet + PC + consumer electronics = ?

our definition of convergence has changed

!""($                       !")"$                     !")+$




                                                      ,$
                                                         Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Is             the future of convergence?


-.$/.012                                           Leaders


                                                   Innovators


3$455.678.09$701$:5$7$;0:<1$=70                    Assemblers


3$>5?0.:?$:9$/7@:5A$9/708$?16:<19$;.99:BC1

3$>DE$B1<./:5A$?1F7<8.$:5$GH$?16:<19

3$I159.09$J$$F.0/$F7<8.09$K$?:61091$1L;10:15<19

3$M161C.;10$1<.9N981/$:9$;708$.F$<.01$1L;10:15<1



                                                                Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Convergence is about experience roaming
Convergence is about having an experience that roams consistently across ‘screens’




                        experience roaming                          across screens

                         Social circle
                         Developer ecosystem

convergence =
                         User data roaming
                         Service roaming                   x
                         User interaction design
                         Industrial design
                         Brand




                                                                               Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Apple is the poster child of experience roaming
Apple leads by example, by delivering a consistent experience across divers screens




 Experience roaming                                                  Across screens

 Social circle                   Ping                     iPod
 Apps ecosystem                  App Store                iPhone
 User data roaming               MobileMe                 iPad

 Service roaming                 iTunes, AirPlay          Mac

 User interaction design         iOS                      Apple TV

 Industrial design               Apple                   ?

 Brand                           Apple




                                                                                Copyright VisionMobile 2011
The next battle is for Experience Ecosystems
Experience Ecosystems create major exit barriers and drive cross-sales; they are therefore a
sustainable strategy for Innovator OEMs needing to survive margin pressures.




         network                                      network
          effects                                      effects
                                                                                 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
the future of convergence is experience roaming
 convergence = screens + experience



!""($                                !")"$             !")+$




the future of convergence is in a single experience + developer ecosystem
powered by ARM hardware across mobile, PC & embedded

                                                           Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Apps are the new web
Why apps are the new information paradigm for web 3.0




                                                        Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Everyone wants their own app store
  but few are above the radar                    = number of apps when above 10,000


OS vendors




OEMs                            Carriers   Independent




  Source: Distimo, March 2011                         Copyright VisionMobile 2011
App stores are about control, not $$$
 App Stores are a control point for:                                       and an opportunity for:
 - discovery of applications
 access to app discovery as a control point - as a gateway to affiliate,
 matchmaker and curator business models

 - distribution of applications
 e.g distribution and delivery of apps as a control point - e.g. Android
 uses Market to enforce compliance requirements on handsets

 - monetisation of applications
 an opportunity to extract a commission in the form of revenue share
 for paid apps and in-app purchases

 - exit barriers for users
 app stores create ‘sticky gardens’; if users churn they lose their apps

 - consumer insights
 an opportunity to optimise device and service targeting

                                                                               Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Building an app store is not easy

Mobile Application Stores (end- 2010)
                                                                    Android                                           BlackBerry
                                        App Store                                            Ovi Store                                              GetJar
                                                                    Market                                            App World
Fundamentals
Owner                                         Apple                    Google                     Nokia                    RIM                   Getjar Networks

                                     via App Store on iPhone    via Market on Android     via download, and pre-                                    via web only
Distribution model                        and iPod Touch       devices (closed source)       loaded from 4Q09
                                                                                                                             ?
                                                                                                                                               (direct + white label)
                                                                                                                                             Java, Flash, Android, RIM,
Platforms                                      OSX                     Android                Symbian, S40               BlackBerry
                                                                                                                                               WinMo, Palm, Android



Key figures
Sales base                                     90M                       77M                       440M                    125M
                                                                                                                                              0 (plans to pre-load icon
since launch (2010 est.)                                                                                                                        shortcut on phones)
Downloads per month                           510M                      270M                        90M                     60M                         90M
as of end of 2010 (est.)
Cumulative downloads         since
                                               10B                      2.5B                        N/A                     N/A                         1.6B
launch as of end of 2010 (est.)
Applications                                 300,000                   130,000                    25,000                  18,000                      76,000
to end of 2010 (est.)
                                                                  70% to developer           70% to developer                                     Ad-based apps
Revenue model                           70% to developer
                                                               30% optional to operator   (less w/ carrier billing)
                                                                                                                      70% to developer
                                                                                                                                                 + paid placement



                                                                                                                      source: VisionMobile research, Distimo
Note: The sales base represents mobile devices sold and does not include tablets or other connected devices


                                                                                                                                      Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Why is building an app store so hard?
   App stores need 5 genes from 5 species across the value chain

Genes




Species

            platform       mobile      handset     platform brands and
          companies    carriers &       OEMs     companies     retailers
                        payment
                         brokers




                                                               Copyright VisionMobile 2011
3 pillars to the app store evolution 2011-13
1. Merchandising: App stores will take retailing where it’s never been before
- app retailing is bottleneck, resulting in price erosion as developers drop prices to bubble up to the top-25.
-This will drive retail sophistication: App Malls (shops-in-shop), bundles, time-limited offers, friend
endorsements, inventory micro-targeting, gift/beg options, second-hand apps, offers tied to carriers, etc



2. Diversity: App Stores will cater to 100s of niche segments;
Genre-centric stores (Games store), lifestyle-centric stores (e.g. sports or clothes brands), specialist content (e.g.
adult or enterprise), region-centric stores (e.g. Seattle apps)



3. Low barriers: App Malls will enable low-cost shops-in-shop setups
SDP vendors will offer the infrastructure, catalogue and recommendations technology allowing wannabe
app retailers to be setup at very low cost, with proven revenue models (setup fee + rent + sales commission)




                                                                                           Copyright VisionMobile 2011
                                                                                     Copyright VisionMobile 2007-2010
Apps succeed where the web failed
- 2007: voice, text and web was main channel for services
the old school of mobile services: voice, texting, ringtones, televoting, MMS, Mobile TV,..

- 2011: 500,000+ applications on smartphones
- Apps are the single biggest digital channel since the web
- There are apps springing up everywhere there is a website
for every website, for every brand and for every corporate intranet

- Apps succeeded where cross-platform frameworks failed
Mobile web pages and widgets are poor alternatives to apps
Java and Flash failed to pick up where web left off

- The web is now the lowest common denominator across screens
across devices, the living room, the PC and the car




                                                                                 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
what is are apps?
apps are a new information paradigm
        For..             Mobile apps            Web pages

        packaging         Self-contained         Set of pages

        personalising     access to location,    explicitly typed info only
                          contacts
        discovering       app store              text results or URL

        monetising        micropayments          ads

        interacting       touch, sensors, keys   mouse, keys

        measuring         downloads economy      attention economy


         .. information



                                                                Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Web 3.0 will adopt the app paradigm
Web apps will proliferate in mobile handsets driven by
- web benefactors Google, Microsoft, Apple
- technology commoditisation; WebKit and V8;
- consistent technology adoption WebKit on >350M handsets up to June 2010
- content owners with most assets on HTML/web
- platform vendors seeking to modernise their developer platforms
e.g. WebOS vs Palm OS, RIM WebWorks vs BlackBerry OS 6, Nokia WRT. BREW to follow?

- and “buy in” to a developer community and a “hype-ready” platform
building a developer community is extremely expensive. It comes for free with web technologies

- the need to tap into new developer segments from the web domain
1.5 million web developers most of which are new to mobile

- The need to reduce development costs for cross-screen apps
mobile, tablet, PC, TV, consumer electronics, automotive, ..
                                                                               Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Google under threat in web 3.0
Google rose due to openness, info chaos and lack of monetisation
- the open (crawlable) web,
- the lack of information semantics (needing Pagerank to create order out of chaos)
- the lack of a micropayments mechanism on the web (increasing demand for ads)



Google is now threatened from web silos, app stores and micropayments
- closed web silos (social networks like Facebook and app stores like Apple store)
- semantic information discovery in app stores (reducing greatly the search complexity)
- pay-per download, virtual goods and proximity payments (reducing the need for ads)


To survive, Google is trying to outrun the market trends
- launching is own walled gardens (Orkut and Buzz), its own app stores (Android Market and Chrome Web
     Store) and integrating a payments technology (NFC) within Android handsets



                                                                                     Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Open + closed: two sides of the same coin
use of open + closed strategies to commoditise + protect




                                               Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Open is the new closed

  - Android, MeeGo, Webkit, Qt, Maemo, Eclipse, Linux all use open source
  all projects use an open source license for the public source code

  - Open source licenses are standardised and well understood
  3 licenses used most often in mobile projects (GPL, LGPL, APL)

  - But an open source license is only the tip of the iceberg
  a license determines access to the project (e.g. Android public source code)

  - Governance is what determines the rules of the game
  the governance model determines access and influence into the product (e.g. Android handsets)

  - Open licenses are used with closed governance
  many projects restrict governance while maintaining an open source license




                                                                                 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Closed governance is used to control
clever use of governance models can be used to control products based on OSS
                                                                                               license type



                                                                                               dual license
                                                                                               (commercial + copyleft)
                                                             Qt


                                                                                               strong copyleft
                                                                                               (GPL)
                      Linux kernel


                                                                                               weak copyleft
                                                                  Foundation                   (LGPL, MPL, EPL,..)
         Foundation
                                WebKit


                                                                                               permissive
                                                                                               (APL, BSD, MIT, ...)
                                                                                Android




        open community                   managed community                      autocratic
                                                                               community
                                 governance model (simplified)
                                                                                             Copyright VisionMobile 2011
What are the criteria for ‘openness’ ?
 Access
 •   Is source code available to all without discrimination?
 •   Are project mailing lists, forums, bug-tracking databases and developer tools available to all?
 •   Is the project roadmap available publicly?


 Development
 •   Are decision-making mechanisms transparent and accessible?
 •   Is the code contribution and acceptance process clear and accessible?
 •   Are the requirements to become a committer clear and equitable?
 •   Can you identify who the committers to the project are?
 •   Are the requirements to become a reviewer clear and equitable?
 •   Can you identify who the reviews to the project are?
 •   Does the contribution license require copyright assignment (vs. a copyright license)


 Derivatives
 •   Are trademarks used to control compliance and use of the project?
 •   Are go-to-market channels for Application Derivatives constrained?


 Community
 •   Do different community members have different rights?


                                                                                                       Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Openness to commoditise product complements
 beyond open source, openness is used as a business strategy to commoditise
 product complements while protecting core assets

                                             Windows
                        iOS       Android               BlackBerry             Symbian
                                              Phone


Bundled services      Closed      Open       Closed      Closed                  Open



App developers        Curated     Open       Curated    Curated                Curated



Device vendor         Closed      Open        Open       Closed                  Open



Software platform     Closed      Closed     Closed      Closed                Curated



Hardware platform     Closed     Curated     Closed      Closed                  Open



                                                             Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Developers, Developers, Developers
the engine behind telecoms innovation




                                        Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Based on
                                             Mobile Developer Economics 2010

                                                          - Analysis of the developer experience from design to monetisation
Free download: www.Developer Economics.com




                                                          - Across all 8 major platforms




                                                          - Based on a sample of 401 mobile app developers
                                                          - With significant experience in mobile development
                                                          More than 60% of respondents have 3+ years of experience in app development.
                                                          Nearly 30% have won one or more developer awards




                                                                                                          Copyright VisionMobile 2011
                                                                                                           Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
The diverse world of software developers
With different business models and incentives



                                         content publishers
           Internet service
              providers
                                                                         system
                                                                       integrators




  mobile games
   developers


                                                                              software
                                                                               houses

            independent
             developers                                apps development
                              software integration         agencies
                                    services
                                                                     Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Android has biggest mindshare




                                                                “
                                                                    Android is better than other
-Android has biggest mindshare                                      platforms in terms of tools,
- Symbian/Java down from #1/#2 in 2008                              platform features, and it’s
                                                                    easier to stand out as
- Most developers work on multiple platforms                        developer.”
The average is 2.8 platforms, across sample of 401 developers       Android developer
                                                                              Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Android 3x easier to learn than Symbian




                                Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Developers becoming market savvy




                                                         “
                                                                technical considerations are
Commercial above technical reasoning                            irrelevant, the choice of
-Large market penetration (70% of respondents) is               platform is ALWAYS
more important than ability to code & prototype quickly (45%)   marketing-driven.”
- Revenue potential (55%) is more relevant than                 Mobile web developer

good documentation (35%)
                                                                                Copyright VisionMobile 2011
App Stores reduce time-to-market by 3x




                       “
                            App Stores minimised
                            time-to-shelf from 68 days
                            to 22 days and halved
                            time-to-payment




                                    Copyright VisionMobile 2011
The app developer journey
   The many facets of the app developer experience

                            - platform hype                                - developer certification                           - analytics & sales tracking
                            - addressable market                           - app signing, certification & approval             - user ratings
                            (devices/regions)                              - regional testing & sandbox networks               - user support
                            - platform features                            - beta testing with peers and end users             - application updates
                            - learning curve & coding effort               - localisation frameworks                           - cross-selling
                            - conferences & competitions                   - packaging and SKU management tools                - privacy compliance



                   *                          *                                                                            *

                                                           develop,
   application                 platform                                             market                  retailing &                      in-life
                                                           debug &
    planning                   selection                                           readiness               monetisation                 application use
                                                           support




- audience targeting                                 - IDEs, SDKs and documentation                    - go-to-market channels
- concept design                                     - UI tools                                        - promotional tools
- feature design                                     - emulator and on-target debugging                - co-marketing programs
- prototyping tools                                  - community & official forums/websites            - revenue models
- market research                                    - profiling tools                                 - billing & settlement
- focus groups                                       - test frameworks
                                                     - porting tools
*: mostly applicable to developers who sell apps     - premium technical support
                                                                                                                     Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Key developer pain points
based on Developer Economics 2010 research




                         App submission & certification                                Application marketing
                  application certification is expensive, approval takes too           lack of effective marketing channels to increase
                                           long, and signing is complicated            app exposure and discovery




                                                   develop,
application                platform                                         market                 retailing &                    in-life
                                                   debug &
 planning                  selection                                       readiness              monetisation               application use
                                                   support




              most vendor effort goes here

                                                        Localisation                   Dubious long-tail economics
                            lack of localised apps for most regions, lack of           average RoI through an app store is much less than
                                            localisation tools for developers          the cost of producing the app




                                                                                                          Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Are you a mobile developer?
Want to share your own views on app development?

Join in Developer Economics 2011.
Have your say on the hottest issues in app development and win a $1,500 Amazon voucher.


www.visionmobile.com/dev
open until end March 2011.




                                                                                                    created by




                                                                                                     sponsored by


                                                                                 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Communities: the new currency




                                Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Communities are the new frontier
Building a brand, product or technology is science
Building a community is a form of art
Whether it’s a consumer, enterprise or a developer community
New techniques are emerging; game mechanics and religion engineering




                                                       Copyright VisionMobile 2011
you can buy an audience but..
you can’t buy a community
an audience is people who interact with a service.
a community is a network of people who interact amongst them
you can buy an audience (eyeballs or subscribers)
but you can’t buy a community (network interactions)




                                                       Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Communities are the new differentiator
Service brands, OEMs and carriers have tried to create own communities
But found that community creation needs a very different rulebook
And ended up partnering with communities (Facebook, Twitter, etc)
Exclusive deals with communities will be the new differentiator above
price, design and premium content.




                                                         Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Communities are the new currency
Zynga's CityVille grew to 100 million users in just 43 days
Facebook is a platform between 500M+ users and 2.5M+ developers
Facebook is #1 social network across the world except China, Russia, Brazil, Japan
Skype: 8 million paid users and 25% of global international calling traffic




                                                                       Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Carriers: stuck in the telecoms age
and how carriers can compete




                                  Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Carriers in the midst of an identity crisis
Carriers are telecoms-age species in a software age
- Carriers have grown in the telecoms age; this affects their ability to adapt and their speed of innovation


..In an identity crisis
- Carriers are still undecided as to whether they want to be an access company (e.g. LightSquared, KPN), a
supermarket (own services), a shelf (retailer/curator of 3rd party services) or a broker (matchmaker between
developers and consumers). They want to be everything to everyone.


Losing battle after battle for control points
- non-communication needs (apps), location (GPS), billing (app stores), service retailing & discovery (app
stores), authentication (Twitter/facebook), mobile termination (Google C2DM), subscriber activation
(iPhone soft SIM?)


With no innovation in their core business
- voice, texting and SIM cards have seen no innovation in the last decade.           Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Taking baby steps in the software age
Carriers don’t know how to use software
- Carriers software efforts are mediocre; see Vodafone VSCL, VFX and widgets
- Using WAC to profit from apps, when Apple/Google are not profiting from apps


Carriers are accelerating the PC-like commoditisation of handsets
- skewing the natural OEM selection process (by ranging handsets on a OS basis) and forcing
Innovator OEMs to struggle while nimble assemblers thrive
- The $100 smartphone means loss of subsidy power for carriers, therefore loss of differentiation


Carriers are funding their antagonists
- most Android projects 2007-2009 were carrier-funded.
- Android and iPhone are playing AT&T and Verizon like puppets on strings; e.g. Verizon now
heavily marketing iPhone, while AT&T heavily pushing Android.



                                                                                   Copyright VisionMobile 2011
The real value of carriers
The real value of carriers is still untapped


1. Leverage apps to drive core business, not generate revenues
- Deliver voice and messaging apps that build on core network business, at 10x deployment speeds
- quit pushing for higher communications ARPU, but leverage apps to extent revenues across untapped
segments of consumer spending portfolio (transport, health, food, housing, etc)
- expose network APIs that drive lock-in to core business, not APIs that generate revenue
- leverage apps to drive premium customer acquisition, customer retention and increase switching costs


2. Divide and conquer among app stores
- Don’t create new app stores (WAC) but divide and conquer among existing app stores
- Create shop fronts for app retailing and promotions
- Monetise by helping developers target apps to the right demographic in real time
- Offer recommendation services by tapping into users’ social graph
                                                                                     Copyright VisionMobile 2011
The real value of carriers
3. Increase power over OEM suppliers
- Shift handset purchasing model to a performance based per-device bonus based on hitting ARPU,
messaging and churn targets; leverage on network analytics.
- Resist a price war on handsets by favouring an oligopoly of traditional suppliers


4. Become the VISA of mobile
- aggressively grow carrier billing usage via in-app payments
- provide micro-billing at VISA-like rates activated via SMS


5. Invest in retail differentiation
- as devices commoditise, retail will become a stronger control point for customer acquisition
- Invest in retail differentiation, for example visual service retailing, bundling services/apps in handsets,
deploying handset PoS configurators and carrying out PoS customer segmentation analysis.



                                                                                      Copyright VisionMobile 2011
The real value of carriers
6. Customer experience management
- Identify influencers and improve lifetime value metrics
- Understand customer behaviour and enable behavioural targeting by third parties


7. Drive wholesale business beyond mobile
- Drive wholesale model in CE business (ala Kindle) to de-risk and differentiate bandwidth pricing


8. Handset customisation: focus on merchandising and addressbook
- focus on a single app (active idle screen) to be provisioned on all smartphones + some Java handsets
- idle screen app can encompass service merchandising/promos and addressbook functionality
- leave all other apps to 3rd parties!




                                                                                   Copyright VisionMobile 2011
a note of caution

is WAC repeating history mistakes?
- WAC is a framework for creating carrier-owned app stores
    even if carriers don’t have most of the genes to create their own app store
-   and making money from apps
    when Apple/Google use apps as a complementary business, not as a revenue generator

- Needs software agility, but moves with telecoms rigidity
    12 months since announcement and no distribution channel, no marketplace, no billing
    Telecoms rigidity and ‘design by committee’ is the key reason why LiMo failed
- Smartphone focus, but feature phone opportunity
    Smartphone focus (Opera, S60, iPhone), where competition is fierce. Opportunity is in feature
    phones but challenge is fragmentation of widget runtimes and buying power - why i-mode alliance failed.
- Distribution channel will fail once runtimes fragment
    Same reason why a Java app store would fail.
- Distribution will fragment among carriers
    Each carrier to have different app requirements and revenue shares
    Same reason while the BREW app store (since 2001) failed to reach Apple’s proportions
                                                                                          Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Augmented economics
Making money at the edge of reality
                                      Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Augmented economics: the study of the economy created
by superimposing value on top of our physical world




                                           Copyright VisionMobile 2011
What is augmented economics?
making money by connecting the physical world with virtual worlds




    O)2&P$01615Q19R$+!(E$Q9109$S!""TU        O++"E$01615Q19R$     G:8N6:CC1V$)""E$Q9109$:5$#($?7N9     X8W1$;..0$/75Y9$7QA/1581?$017C:8NX
                                             O(+P$67CQ78:.5                                            SM155:9$G0.=C1NU




      B70<.?19R$'D$<.?19              6:08Q7C$=.0C?9$=W:<W$/.518:91$8W0.QAW$6:08Q7C$A..?9R$6:08Q7C$
                                                                                                                6:08Q7C$017C3198781$
                                      <Q0015<N$1L<W75A19$75?$7?9$BN$;WN9:<7C$=.0C?$B075?92$




        >D$B0.=9109V$7;;C:<78:.59$017<W$7<0.99$0187:CR$7?9R$           <.551<89$;7;10$8.$             6:08Q7C$A..?9R$7Q<8:.59$75?$HA.$9106:<19
        ;0.;108NR$/:C:870NR$1?Q<78:.52                                 9106:<1$;0.6:?109


                                                                                                                 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Facebook: connecting physical to virtual
7$;C78F.0/$B18=115$8W1$;WN9:<7C$=.0C?$75?$8W1$)R"""9$.F$6:08Q7C$=.0C?9



                                                                                                            N.Q0
                                                                                                            =.0C?
                                                                                                            W101



                                                                 .FF39:81$7?9
                                     .539:81$7?9
                                                                 7<1B..@$<01?:89




 8W1$/.61$8.$.FF39:81$7?9R$91CF39106:<1$7?9$75?$6:08Q7C$A..?9$:9$1L;1<81?$8.$?.QBC1$>DZ[$F0./$O"2!+$8.$O"2+"$
 9.Q0<1V$01?$]:C9.5R$^G2
                                                                                         Copyright VisionMobile 2011
The money in augmented economics

               “The power to capture attractive profits.. is in
               these stages that complex, interdependent
               integration occurs”
               Clayton Christensen et al


               In augment economics, the platform that links
               the physical with the virtual world stands to
               profit the most.


               “The next Google might be a physical world
               connection company”
               S Schaffer


                                                Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Thanks for listening.
                                                                        Knowledge. Passion. Innovation.




                    want more?

                    hello@visionmobile.com
                    contact us to schedule an on-site workshop.




                                                                  Updated: 12 November 2010




                                                                    Copyright VisionMobile 2011
lost?                  found
        Industry Atlas: the competitive landscape of mobile




                                      Copyright VisionMobile 2011

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Mobile Megatrends 2011: How Telecoms Business is Transforming in the Software Era

  • 1. VisionMobile Mobile Megatrends 2011 how telecoms business is transforming in the software era. updated 8 March 2011 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 2. Knowledge. Passion. Innovation. Andreas Constantinou Michael Vakulenko Matos Kapetanakis (c) VisionMobile 2011 Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License (http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0) You are free to Share or Remix any part of this work as long as you attribute this work to VisionMobile (www.visionmobile.com). Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 3. VisionMobile research Distilling market noise into market sense Research Training Market maps Strategy definition competitive analysis, open source economics, Competitive landscape maps of strategy design, ecosystem commissioned research, Android commercials, the mobile industry positioning, product definition company due diligence mobile industry dynamics Developer Economics 2010: Everything on mobile development Active Idle Screen Open Source Chessboard Who will own the business impacts of mobile open Mobile Megatrends series source, the competitive landscape and Mobile Industry Atlas, 3rd ed. screen? 1,100+ companies, 69 market sectors how to design your company strategy Top-100 analyst blog 4,000+ subscribers 20,000+ monthly uniques 90% mobile industry insiders GPLv2 vs GPLv3 White Paper The Android Game Plan the commercial mechanics 100 million club behind Android and how tracking successful businesses Google runs the show in mobile Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 4. Trusted by industry brands Clients selected VisionMobile clients 2008-2010 Copyright VisionMobile 2011 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-2010
  • 5. Mobile Megatrends 2011 The DELL-ification of mobile Software: new era for telecoms Experience ecosystems How the mobile handset landscape is and the new rules for innovation how telecoms + internet convergence becoming much like the PC is leading to the next megabrands Apps are the new web open + closed Developers, developers Why apps are the new information use of open + closed strategies to the engine behind telecoms innovation paradigm for web 3.0 commoditise + protect Communities: a new currency Stuck in the telecoms age Augmented Economics Communities will provide the main how carriers are stuck in the telecoms age and making money at the edge of reality differentiation above price, design and content how to compete Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 6. The DELL-ification of mobile How the mobile handset market is approaching PC-like commoditisation Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 7. Internet players agenda drive top-5 OEMs and OEM market is fragmenting, approaching the PC market !""" !""! !""#$ !""%$ !""&$ '($!")"$ Market share of top-5 OEMs (source: Gartner) !$# $%# $&# '"* '(# !"# Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 8. Profits are driven by end-to-end players and away from the old top-5 OEM league source: Deutsche Bank Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 9. OEM strategies: volume vs profit strategies = strategy expectations $ profit per unit data source: Deutsche Bank 2010 market share % Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 10. OEMs at different stages of integration Three roles for handset manufacturers across the double helix Horizontal player structure Vertical player structure Leaders: new product experiences and enviable margins Assemblers razon-thin margins wannabee innovators wannabee leaders Innovators: incremental innovation strong brand, performance, good looks and services Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 11. Lead, innovate or assemble The new role models for OEMs in the post-Android era 1. Assemblers: Razor-thin margins 10s of assemblers use Android to deliver ready-to-market smartphones with complete service and apps ecosystem competing head-to-head with major OEMs. iPhone me-too experience at $100 retail. 2. Leaders: unique product experiences Manufacturers who can masterfully integrate hardware + software + services + industrial design into new product experiences - from phones and tablets to TVs. Unique product experiences at $500 retail. 3. Innovators: incremental innovation The old top-5 OEM guard. Differentiation is on strong brand, performance, good looks and services. 4. Mass producers: catering to developing markets ? Mass producers rely on huge economies of scale to break even at $50, but make up nearly 50% of unit sales in the mobile handset market. Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 12. The innovators are squeezed in Revenue pyramid performance pressure Leaders: new product experiences Innovators: incremental innovation Assemblers: price razor-thin margins pressure Pyramid squeeze is accelerated by Google’s Experience handsets (fast hardware/software evolution) and Windows Phone Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 13. DELLification in 2015 closely modelling the PC business Profit pyramid Revenue pyramid Present-day example Leaders Role model: Apple $37.5B 5% @ $500 Innovators Role model: Samsung $90B 25% @ $250 Assemblers Role model: Dell $56B 25% @ $100 s ce Mass producers vi Role model: Nokia ? de $37.5B 45% @ $50 B 1.5 $200B Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 14. OEM + Android: winners and losers The winners: The losers: low cost assemblers ‘old guard’ OEMs Cost structure optimised for razor-thin margins Cost structure requires high-margins Android is a long-term opportunity for global reach Android is a short-term life support No Name source: VisionMobile Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 15. The new world: Innovate or be replaced The new rules of the handset industry 1. Software and hardware is commodity - Software is a loss-leader, monetised by ads (Google), hardware (Apple), content (Amazon), services (RIM) - Software is provided a la carte and pre-integrated by chipset providers (e.g. Qualcomm, MediaTek) 2. Points of differentiation rapidly disappearing - Android provides out-of-the-box, complete ecosystems; OEMs compete on equal footing to assemblers 3. The search for innovation is on OEMs are search for new models of innovation beyond price, brand, performance and marketing: - communities BlackBerry messaging or facebook deals - made-to-order handsets; copying DELL’s PC model - white label services for carriers where OEMs trade service revenues for carrier subsidies - micro-retailing ‘slotting’ promos across distribution regions and channels Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 16. Software: the new era for telecoms and the new rules for innovation image source: maschinenraum / Flickr Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 17. $$$ and software DNA are key for platforms 20 dead platforms in the last 10 years Internet Danger OS Android Chrome OS SavaJe OS PC Trolltech $30M A la Mobile iOS Nokia GEOS IXI Mobile Palm 5/6 Azingo Motorola L-J Comneon Apoxi Access ALP Mobile e-SIM Intrinsyc OS OpenWave MIDAS Sasken Aria Mizi Prizm SKY-MAP MOAP UIQ TTPCom Ajar OpenMoko 2000 2001 2002 2007 2008 2009 2010 = dead end bubble size = company revenues Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 18. The battle for mass-market smartphone reach OEM internal licensable !600+ computers mobile !400 device retail price connected Nokia Series 40 phones Samsung SHP !100 LG Wise !50 phones voice Note: OSes omitted: Myriad, Mediatek OS, Mango (Qualcomm), Koretide Elastos 14 out of 15 platforms are monetised indirectly by complementary products 11 out of 15 platforms have developer ecosystems or industry consortia built around them Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 19. The battle for ecosystem completeness Carriers Nokia RIM Apple Qualcomm Google facebook Components Social networks Cloud services Developer ecosystem Network User interface Operating system Hardware IP Manufacturing denotes where vendor started Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 20. Huge gap between telecoms & software worlds success as defined in 2010 success as defined in 2005 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 21. software: turning telecoms upside down VA3#234+53#41G#N::1#L8?87-W#XX#C+1+-.D-E+,3#Y3138?5A# 234+531#6-,7#0-#7803#9/:#0-#;%#)'"'<# J/*E3?#-K#8::1#848+,8E,3#+.#8::#10-?31#9;%#)'"'<# !"!# 6>*E+8.# $&%''# internalised $!# +LA-.3# )H'&'''# 9+M6<# the new !!# N.7?-+7# I'&'''# networks %&%''# O848#DP# !(&'''# dual stasis ""(# Q,85RQ3??># "'&'''# personality back to "&(''# S,81A# (&'''# T+03# square one back to U+.7-F1# '# I''# square one *+,,+-.#/.+01# LA-.3# 8::1# %&(''# %&'''# )&(''# )&'''# "&(''# "&'''# (''# '# '# ('&'''# "''&'''# "('&'''# )''&'''# )('&'''# %''&'''# =-:>?+@A0#B#C+1+-.D-E+,3#)'"'# FFFG4+1+-.*-E+,3G5-*# Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 22. Huge gap between telecoms & software worlds Telecoms world Software world Success factor installed base number of apps Primary customer consumer developer Speed of innovation 1 OS version every 2 years 5 OS versions/year Time to market 1-2 years 1-2 weeks Type of services comms-centric catering to entire needs portfolio Risk-taking predictability / de-risking entrepreneurship / uncertainty Access to innovation 100s of close partners 100,000s of developers Business model B2B licensing B2C sales/ads/in-app sales Channel to market voice, text and web smartphones Discovery On deck / on device App store First step “we need to sign an NDA” “we need to download the SDK” Process Waterfall: RFI, RFQ, deliver, QA Agile: add feature, build, test, repeat Attitude “developers will come to us” “we need to go to developers” Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 23. The new rules of innovation 1. Speed of innovation defined by internet companies, not hardware / networks - Companies from the Internet domain (Apple, Google, Facebook) out-innovate companies from the mobile industry domain (Nokia, Samsung, Sun) and the networks domain (Vodafone, China Mobile) - Internet players are at top of the food chain and are becoming increasingly assertive - Yet network operators still hold most value (insights and retail channels) in the last mile to the consumer 2. Innovation requires new competence and regional presence - California is the center for software and services innovation. Japan/Korea is the center of CE innovation. 3. If you can’t innovate in software, you will be replaced - The evolutionary game has just accelerated 10-fold. - Players who cannot evolve at software speeds will eventually be replaced by alternatives (oftware has superseded carrier efforts in non-comms user needs, location, billing, discovery, authentication and mobile termination) Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 24. Experience Ecosystems telecoms + internet convergence is leading to experience ecosystems Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 25. telecoms + internet + PC + consumer electronics = ? our definition of convergence has changed !""($ !")"$ !")+$ ,$ Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 26. Is the future of convergence? -.$/.012 Leaders Innovators 3$455.678.09$701$:5$7$;0:<1$=70 Assemblers 3$>5?0.:?$:9$/7@:5A$9/708$?16:<19$;.99:BC1 3$>DE$B1<./:5A$?1F7<8.$:5$GH$?16:<19 3$I159.09$J$$F.0/$F7<8.09$K$?:61091$1L;10:15<19 3$M161C.;10$1<.9N981/$:9$;708$.F$<.01$1L;10:15<1 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 27. Convergence is about experience roaming Convergence is about having an experience that roams consistently across ‘screens’ experience roaming across screens Social circle Developer ecosystem convergence = User data roaming Service roaming x User interaction design Industrial design Brand Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 28. Apple is the poster child of experience roaming Apple leads by example, by delivering a consistent experience across divers screens Experience roaming Across screens Social circle Ping iPod Apps ecosystem App Store iPhone User data roaming MobileMe iPad Service roaming iTunes, AirPlay Mac User interaction design iOS Apple TV Industrial design Apple ? Brand Apple Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 29. The next battle is for Experience Ecosystems Experience Ecosystems create major exit barriers and drive cross-sales; they are therefore a sustainable strategy for Innovator OEMs needing to survive margin pressures. network network effects effects Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 30. the future of convergence is experience roaming convergence = screens + experience !""($ !")"$ !")+$ the future of convergence is in a single experience + developer ecosystem powered by ARM hardware across mobile, PC & embedded Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 31. Apps are the new web Why apps are the new information paradigm for web 3.0 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 32. Everyone wants their own app store but few are above the radar = number of apps when above 10,000 OS vendors OEMs Carriers Independent Source: Distimo, March 2011 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 33. App stores are about control, not $$$ App Stores are a control point for: and an opportunity for: - discovery of applications access to app discovery as a control point - as a gateway to affiliate, matchmaker and curator business models - distribution of applications e.g distribution and delivery of apps as a control point - e.g. Android uses Market to enforce compliance requirements on handsets - monetisation of applications an opportunity to extract a commission in the form of revenue share for paid apps and in-app purchases - exit barriers for users app stores create ‘sticky gardens’; if users churn they lose their apps - consumer insights an opportunity to optimise device and service targeting Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 34. Building an app store is not easy Mobile Application Stores (end- 2010) Android BlackBerry App Store Ovi Store GetJar Market App World Fundamentals Owner Apple Google Nokia RIM Getjar Networks via App Store on iPhone via Market on Android via download, and pre- via web only Distribution model and iPod Touch devices (closed source) loaded from 4Q09 ? (direct + white label) Java, Flash, Android, RIM, Platforms OSX Android Symbian, S40 BlackBerry WinMo, Palm, Android Key figures Sales base 90M 77M 440M 125M 0 (plans to pre-load icon since launch (2010 est.) shortcut on phones) Downloads per month 510M 270M 90M 60M 90M as of end of 2010 (est.) Cumulative downloads since 10B 2.5B N/A N/A 1.6B launch as of end of 2010 (est.) Applications 300,000 130,000 25,000 18,000 76,000 to end of 2010 (est.) 70% to developer 70% to developer Ad-based apps Revenue model 70% to developer 30% optional to operator (less w/ carrier billing) 70% to developer + paid placement source: VisionMobile research, Distimo Note: The sales base represents mobile devices sold and does not include tablets or other connected devices Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 35. Why is building an app store so hard? App stores need 5 genes from 5 species across the value chain Genes Species platform mobile handset platform brands and companies carriers & OEMs companies retailers payment brokers Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 36. 3 pillars to the app store evolution 2011-13 1. Merchandising: App stores will take retailing where it’s never been before - app retailing is bottleneck, resulting in price erosion as developers drop prices to bubble up to the top-25. -This will drive retail sophistication: App Malls (shops-in-shop), bundles, time-limited offers, friend endorsements, inventory micro-targeting, gift/beg options, second-hand apps, offers tied to carriers, etc 2. Diversity: App Stores will cater to 100s of niche segments; Genre-centric stores (Games store), lifestyle-centric stores (e.g. sports or clothes brands), specialist content (e.g. adult or enterprise), region-centric stores (e.g. Seattle apps) 3. Low barriers: App Malls will enable low-cost shops-in-shop setups SDP vendors will offer the infrastructure, catalogue and recommendations technology allowing wannabe app retailers to be setup at very low cost, with proven revenue models (setup fee + rent + sales commission) Copyright VisionMobile 2011 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-2010
  • 37. Apps succeed where the web failed - 2007: voice, text and web was main channel for services the old school of mobile services: voice, texting, ringtones, televoting, MMS, Mobile TV,.. - 2011: 500,000+ applications on smartphones - Apps are the single biggest digital channel since the web - There are apps springing up everywhere there is a website for every website, for every brand and for every corporate intranet - Apps succeeded where cross-platform frameworks failed Mobile web pages and widgets are poor alternatives to apps Java and Flash failed to pick up where web left off - The web is now the lowest common denominator across screens across devices, the living room, the PC and the car Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 38. what is are apps? apps are a new information paradigm For.. Mobile apps Web pages packaging Self-contained Set of pages personalising access to location, explicitly typed info only contacts discovering app store text results or URL monetising micropayments ads interacting touch, sensors, keys mouse, keys measuring downloads economy attention economy .. information Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 39. Web 3.0 will adopt the app paradigm Web apps will proliferate in mobile handsets driven by - web benefactors Google, Microsoft, Apple - technology commoditisation; WebKit and V8; - consistent technology adoption WebKit on >350M handsets up to June 2010 - content owners with most assets on HTML/web - platform vendors seeking to modernise their developer platforms e.g. WebOS vs Palm OS, RIM WebWorks vs BlackBerry OS 6, Nokia WRT. BREW to follow? - and “buy in” to a developer community and a “hype-ready” platform building a developer community is extremely expensive. It comes for free with web technologies - the need to tap into new developer segments from the web domain 1.5 million web developers most of which are new to mobile - The need to reduce development costs for cross-screen apps mobile, tablet, PC, TV, consumer electronics, automotive, .. Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 40. Google under threat in web 3.0 Google rose due to openness, info chaos and lack of monetisation - the open (crawlable) web, - the lack of information semantics (needing Pagerank to create order out of chaos) - the lack of a micropayments mechanism on the web (increasing demand for ads) Google is now threatened from web silos, app stores and micropayments - closed web silos (social networks like Facebook and app stores like Apple store) - semantic information discovery in app stores (reducing greatly the search complexity) - pay-per download, virtual goods and proximity payments (reducing the need for ads) To survive, Google is trying to outrun the market trends - launching is own walled gardens (Orkut and Buzz), its own app stores (Android Market and Chrome Web Store) and integrating a payments technology (NFC) within Android handsets Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 41. Open + closed: two sides of the same coin use of open + closed strategies to commoditise + protect Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 42. Open is the new closed - Android, MeeGo, Webkit, Qt, Maemo, Eclipse, Linux all use open source all projects use an open source license for the public source code - Open source licenses are standardised and well understood 3 licenses used most often in mobile projects (GPL, LGPL, APL) - But an open source license is only the tip of the iceberg a license determines access to the project (e.g. Android public source code) - Governance is what determines the rules of the game the governance model determines access and influence into the product (e.g. Android handsets) - Open licenses are used with closed governance many projects restrict governance while maintaining an open source license Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 43. Closed governance is used to control clever use of governance models can be used to control products based on OSS license type dual license (commercial + copyleft) Qt strong copyleft (GPL) Linux kernel weak copyleft Foundation (LGPL, MPL, EPL,..) Foundation WebKit permissive (APL, BSD, MIT, ...) Android open community managed community autocratic community governance model (simplified) Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 44. What are the criteria for ‘openness’ ? Access • Is source code available to all without discrimination? • Are project mailing lists, forums, bug-tracking databases and developer tools available to all? • Is the project roadmap available publicly? Development • Are decision-making mechanisms transparent and accessible? • Is the code contribution and acceptance process clear and accessible? • Are the requirements to become a committer clear and equitable? • Can you identify who the committers to the project are? • Are the requirements to become a reviewer clear and equitable? • Can you identify who the reviews to the project are? • Does the contribution license require copyright assignment (vs. a copyright license) Derivatives • Are trademarks used to control compliance and use of the project? • Are go-to-market channels for Application Derivatives constrained? Community • Do different community members have different rights? Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 45. Openness to commoditise product complements beyond open source, openness is used as a business strategy to commoditise product complements while protecting core assets Windows iOS Android BlackBerry Symbian Phone Bundled services Closed Open Closed Closed Open App developers Curated Open Curated Curated Curated Device vendor Closed Open Open Closed Open Software platform Closed Closed Closed Closed Curated Hardware platform Closed Curated Closed Closed Open Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 46. Developers, Developers, Developers the engine behind telecoms innovation Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 47. Based on Mobile Developer Economics 2010 - Analysis of the developer experience from design to monetisation Free download: www.Developer Economics.com - Across all 8 major platforms - Based on a sample of 401 mobile app developers - With significant experience in mobile development More than 60% of respondents have 3+ years of experience in app development. Nearly 30% have won one or more developer awards Copyright VisionMobile 2011 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
  • 48. The diverse world of software developers With different business models and incentives content publishers Internet service providers system integrators mobile games developers software houses independent developers apps development software integration agencies services Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 49. Android has biggest mindshare “ Android is better than other -Android has biggest mindshare platforms in terms of tools, - Symbian/Java down from #1/#2 in 2008 platform features, and it’s easier to stand out as - Most developers work on multiple platforms developer.” The average is 2.8 platforms, across sample of 401 developers Android developer Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 50. Android 3x easier to learn than Symbian Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 51. Developers becoming market savvy “ technical considerations are Commercial above technical reasoning irrelevant, the choice of -Large market penetration (70% of respondents) is platform is ALWAYS more important than ability to code & prototype quickly (45%) marketing-driven.” - Revenue potential (55%) is more relevant than Mobile web developer good documentation (35%) Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 52. App Stores reduce time-to-market by 3x “ App Stores minimised time-to-shelf from 68 days to 22 days and halved time-to-payment Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 53. The app developer journey The many facets of the app developer experience - platform hype - developer certification - analytics & sales tracking - addressable market - app signing, certification & approval - user ratings (devices/regions) - regional testing & sandbox networks - user support - platform features - beta testing with peers and end users - application updates - learning curve & coding effort - localisation frameworks - cross-selling - conferences & competitions - packaging and SKU management tools - privacy compliance * * * develop, application platform market retailing & in-life debug & planning selection readiness monetisation application use support - audience targeting - IDEs, SDKs and documentation - go-to-market channels - concept design - UI tools - promotional tools - feature design - emulator and on-target debugging - co-marketing programs - prototyping tools - community & official forums/websites - revenue models - market research - profiling tools - billing & settlement - focus groups - test frameworks - porting tools *: mostly applicable to developers who sell apps - premium technical support Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 54. Key developer pain points based on Developer Economics 2010 research App submission & certification Application marketing application certification is expensive, approval takes too lack of effective marketing channels to increase long, and signing is complicated app exposure and discovery develop, application platform market retailing & in-life debug & planning selection readiness monetisation application use support most vendor effort goes here Localisation Dubious long-tail economics lack of localised apps for most regions, lack of average RoI through an app store is much less than localisation tools for developers the cost of producing the app Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 55. Are you a mobile developer? Want to share your own views on app development? Join in Developer Economics 2011. Have your say on the hottest issues in app development and win a $1,500 Amazon voucher. www.visionmobile.com/dev open until end March 2011. created by sponsored by Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 56. Communities: the new currency Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 57. Communities are the new frontier Building a brand, product or technology is science Building a community is a form of art Whether it’s a consumer, enterprise or a developer community New techniques are emerging; game mechanics and religion engineering Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 58. you can buy an audience but.. you can’t buy a community an audience is people who interact with a service. a community is a network of people who interact amongst them you can buy an audience (eyeballs or subscribers) but you can’t buy a community (network interactions) Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 59. Communities are the new differentiator Service brands, OEMs and carriers have tried to create own communities But found that community creation needs a very different rulebook And ended up partnering with communities (Facebook, Twitter, etc) Exclusive deals with communities will be the new differentiator above price, design and premium content. Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 60. Communities are the new currency Zynga's CityVille grew to 100 million users in just 43 days Facebook is a platform between 500M+ users and 2.5M+ developers Facebook is #1 social network across the world except China, Russia, Brazil, Japan Skype: 8 million paid users and 25% of global international calling traffic Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 61. Carriers: stuck in the telecoms age and how carriers can compete Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 62. Carriers in the midst of an identity crisis Carriers are telecoms-age species in a software age - Carriers have grown in the telecoms age; this affects their ability to adapt and their speed of innovation ..In an identity crisis - Carriers are still undecided as to whether they want to be an access company (e.g. LightSquared, KPN), a supermarket (own services), a shelf (retailer/curator of 3rd party services) or a broker (matchmaker between developers and consumers). They want to be everything to everyone. Losing battle after battle for control points - non-communication needs (apps), location (GPS), billing (app stores), service retailing & discovery (app stores), authentication (Twitter/facebook), mobile termination (Google C2DM), subscriber activation (iPhone soft SIM?) With no innovation in their core business - voice, texting and SIM cards have seen no innovation in the last decade. Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 63. Taking baby steps in the software age Carriers don’t know how to use software - Carriers software efforts are mediocre; see Vodafone VSCL, VFX and widgets - Using WAC to profit from apps, when Apple/Google are not profiting from apps Carriers are accelerating the PC-like commoditisation of handsets - skewing the natural OEM selection process (by ranging handsets on a OS basis) and forcing Innovator OEMs to struggle while nimble assemblers thrive - The $100 smartphone means loss of subsidy power for carriers, therefore loss of differentiation Carriers are funding their antagonists - most Android projects 2007-2009 were carrier-funded. - Android and iPhone are playing AT&T and Verizon like puppets on strings; e.g. Verizon now heavily marketing iPhone, while AT&T heavily pushing Android. Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 64. The real value of carriers The real value of carriers is still untapped 1. Leverage apps to drive core business, not generate revenues - Deliver voice and messaging apps that build on core network business, at 10x deployment speeds - quit pushing for higher communications ARPU, but leverage apps to extent revenues across untapped segments of consumer spending portfolio (transport, health, food, housing, etc) - expose network APIs that drive lock-in to core business, not APIs that generate revenue - leverage apps to drive premium customer acquisition, customer retention and increase switching costs 2. Divide and conquer among app stores - Don’t create new app stores (WAC) but divide and conquer among existing app stores - Create shop fronts for app retailing and promotions - Monetise by helping developers target apps to the right demographic in real time - Offer recommendation services by tapping into users’ social graph Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 65. The real value of carriers 3. Increase power over OEM suppliers - Shift handset purchasing model to a performance based per-device bonus based on hitting ARPU, messaging and churn targets; leverage on network analytics. - Resist a price war on handsets by favouring an oligopoly of traditional suppliers 4. Become the VISA of mobile - aggressively grow carrier billing usage via in-app payments - provide micro-billing at VISA-like rates activated via SMS 5. Invest in retail differentiation - as devices commoditise, retail will become a stronger control point for customer acquisition - Invest in retail differentiation, for example visual service retailing, bundling services/apps in handsets, deploying handset PoS configurators and carrying out PoS customer segmentation analysis. Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 66. The real value of carriers 6. Customer experience management - Identify influencers and improve lifetime value metrics - Understand customer behaviour and enable behavioural targeting by third parties 7. Drive wholesale business beyond mobile - Drive wholesale model in CE business (ala Kindle) to de-risk and differentiate bandwidth pricing 8. Handset customisation: focus on merchandising and addressbook - focus on a single app (active idle screen) to be provisioned on all smartphones + some Java handsets - idle screen app can encompass service merchandising/promos and addressbook functionality - leave all other apps to 3rd parties! Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 67. a note of caution is WAC repeating history mistakes? - WAC is a framework for creating carrier-owned app stores even if carriers don’t have most of the genes to create their own app store - and making money from apps when Apple/Google use apps as a complementary business, not as a revenue generator - Needs software agility, but moves with telecoms rigidity 12 months since announcement and no distribution channel, no marketplace, no billing Telecoms rigidity and ‘design by committee’ is the key reason why LiMo failed - Smartphone focus, but feature phone opportunity Smartphone focus (Opera, S60, iPhone), where competition is fierce. Opportunity is in feature phones but challenge is fragmentation of widget runtimes and buying power - why i-mode alliance failed. - Distribution channel will fail once runtimes fragment Same reason why a Java app store would fail. - Distribution will fragment among carriers Each carrier to have different app requirements and revenue shares Same reason while the BREW app store (since 2001) failed to reach Apple’s proportions Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 68. Augmented economics Making money at the edge of reality Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 69. Augmented economics: the study of the economy created by superimposing value on top of our physical world Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 70. What is augmented economics? making money by connecting the physical world with virtual worlds O)2&P$01615Q19R$+!(E$Q9109$S!""TU O++"E$01615Q19R$ G:8N6:CC1V$)""E$Q9109$:5$#($?7N9 X8W1$;..0$/75Y9$7QA/1581?$017C:8NX O(+P$67CQ78:.5 SM155:9$G0.=C1NU B70<.?19R$'D$<.?19 6:08Q7C$=.0C?9$=W:<W$/.518:91$8W0.QAW$6:08Q7C$A..?9R$6:08Q7C$ 6:08Q7C$017C3198781$ <Q0015<N$1L<W75A19$75?$7?9$BN$;WN9:<7C$=.0C?$B075?92$ >D$B0.=9109V$7;;C:<78:.59$017<W$7<0.99$0187:CR$7?9R$ <.551<89$;7;10$8.$ 6:08Q7C$A..?9R$7Q<8:.59$75?$HA.$9106:<19 ;0.;108NR$/:C:870NR$1?Q<78:.52 9106:<1$;0.6:?109 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 71. Facebook: connecting physical to virtual 7$;C78F.0/$B18=115$8W1$;WN9:<7C$=.0C?$75?$8W1$)R"""9$.F$6:08Q7C$=.0C?9 N.Q0 =.0C? W101 .FF39:81$7?9 .539:81$7?9 7<1B..@$<01?:89 8W1$/.61$8.$.FF39:81$7?9R$91CF39106:<1$7?9$75?$6:08Q7C$A..?9$:9$1L;1<81?$8.$?.QBC1$>DZ[$F0./$O"2!+$8.$O"2+"$ 9.Q0<1V$01?$]:C9.5R$^G2 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 72. The money in augmented economics “The power to capture attractive profits.. is in these stages that complex, interdependent integration occurs” Clayton Christensen et al In augment economics, the platform that links the physical with the virtual world stands to profit the most. “The next Google might be a physical world connection company” S Schaffer Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 73. Thanks for listening. Knowledge. Passion. Innovation. want more? hello@visionmobile.com contact us to schedule an on-site workshop. Updated: 12 November 2010 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 74. lost? found Industry Atlas: the competitive landscape of mobile Copyright VisionMobile 2011