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Deploying Value-Added Service (VAS)
Applications over LTE Network as an
Advantage against Over-The-Top (OTT) Players
By AL...
Objectives
• Exploring the interest from consumers for operator-
provided OTT-like communications app
• How do operators r...
Agenda
• Communication apps on the rise
• Average daily usage of communications and social
networking apps
• Important Fac...
Communication is a feature of a wide range
of apps
Services and apps represented by level of addressability and centrality...
Average daily usage of selected
communications and social networking apps
(n=1596) [Source: Analysys Mason and Nielsen, 20...
Traditional communication services have
come under increased pressure from OTT
5
SMS revenue (total) and volume (per hands...
How do operators rate their performance?
Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
How much have operators lost?
16
38.4
43.6
2013
2014E
Global Voice Revenues Lost to OTT Applications,
USD (Billion)
Voice ...
What’s the reason for this optimism?
• What’s the main asset that operators have to compete with OTTs?
Ali.Saghaeian [at] ...
Strong interest from consumers for
operator-provided OTT-like comms app
Which of the following would make you interested i...
Important Factors in an OTT Service Package
52% Content-related
39% Price-related
Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
Telco-OTT voice/messaging applications
+ also TelcoOTT content, cloud, advanced comms, TV, developer platforms…
Orange Lib...
Adoption of IP messaging apps has increased
strongly
Penetration rates of various communication services
(n=1081 (2011) an...
The timing of your response is driven by the
value of the messaging market and the level
of threat from OTT
IM Penetration...
Apps are becoming multi-modal
communication platforms
EMAP: Emerging
Markets and Asia
Pacific countries
Features used in c...
Popularity of messaging apps is more than price: they
successfully gather together peer group activities
Features used on ...
Pure-play VoIP is still to demonstrate broader
appeal
Source: Analysys Mason - 2015
Reasons given for not using voice/vide...
VoIP services currently lack compelling
reasons for most end-users to migrate usage
Reasons given by VoIP service users fo...
The Worldwide Growth of OTT Video
Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
We continue to see strong potential in OTT
Video
Expected ARPU of OTT Video subscribers1
USD
1. Defined as premium over-th...
SVOD and AVOD services have been growing
rapidly in the UK
Compared to 6 months ago, users of SVOD and Catch-Up services a...
The big picture: OTT Video
􀂃 Total OTT revenues hit US$
320 million in 2015, will double
to $650m in 2019
0
100
200
300
40...
Video calling is more widely used than VoIP
in most markets
Highest penetration amongst
migrant worker populations
Correla...
Consumer demand: Higher quality content on
the rise
 Consumers want higher quality content; trend is echoed in the genera...
Pay-OTT Over the Next 3 Years
Number of pay-OTT services
Few
Many
1. Nascent
2. Fast growing
3. Plateauing
4. Consolidatin...
Nevertheless, app users also remain heavy
users of legacy services
Average SMS/MMS usage for users
and non-users of IP mes...
What have we learned … ?
… and what should operators do about it?
28
 Defend and evolve
operator comms
capabilities
 Lev...
Any Questions?
Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
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Deploying Value-Added Service (VAS) Applications over LTE Network as an Advantage against Over-The-Top (OTT) Players

Some of the topics covered in this slide deck:
Telco-OTT voice/messaging applications
App users & heavy users of legacy services
Operator-provided OTT-like communications app
Value of the messaging market and the level of threat from OTT
Operators rating their performance against OTT Players
Apps as multi-modal communication platforms
Important Factors in an OTT Service Package

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Deploying Value-Added Service (VAS) Applications over LTE Network as an Advantage against Over-The-Top (OTT) Players

  1. 1. Deploying Value-Added Service (VAS) Applications over LTE Network as an Advantage against Over-The-Top (OTT) Players By ALI Saghaeian Chief Analyst & Consultant Telecoms, IT and Media Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  2. 2. Objectives • Exploring the interest from consumers for operator- provided OTT-like communications app • How do operators rate their performance against OTT Players • Value of messaging market & level of threat from OTT • What are the Telco-OTT voice/messaging applications • Learning about Pure-play VoIP and Video calling • What are Important Factors in an OTT Service Package Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  3. 3. Agenda • Communication apps on the rise • Average daily usage of communications and social networking apps • Important Factors in an OTT Service • Telco-OTT voice/messaging applications • Value of the messaging market and the level of threat from OTT • Apps are becoming multi-modal communication platforms • App users & heavy users of legacy services Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  4. 4. Communication is a feature of a wide range of apps Services and apps represented by level of addressability and centrality of communications features Dedicated comms app Level of addressability Low High Centrality of real-time comms Low High Native device functions Niche comms app Comms as a feature Niche apps with comms channels Social messaging platforms Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  5. 5. Average daily usage of selected communications and social networking apps (n=1596) [Source: Analysys Mason and Nielsen, 2014] All IP messaging apps WhatsApp Kik Messenger IM platform LINE Google Talk WeChat KakaoTalk ping chat Palringo Jappy ChatON joyn Facebook Twitter Skype051015200%20%40%60%80%Average usage (minutes per day)Percentage of panellistsViber, Snapchat, Yahoo! Messenger, Message Me Messenger, BBM, ICQ and all other IP messaging Facebook Messenger Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  6. 6. Traditional communication services have come under increased pressure from OTT 5 SMS revenue (total) and volume (per handset) Voice revenue (total) and MoU (per handset) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 50 100 150 200 250 2009 2013 2018 MoU (minutes per connection per month) Reveune (USD billion) EMAP DVAP EMAP DVAP Voice revenue: Voice MoU: 020 40 60 80 100 120 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2009 2013 2018 Volume (SMS per handset per month) Revenue (USD billion) EMAP DVAP EMAP DVAP SMS revenue: SMS volume: Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  7. 7. How do operators rate their performance? Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  8. 8. How much have operators lost? 16 38.4 43.6 2013 2014E Global Voice Revenues Lost to OTT Applications, USD (Billion) Voice (Fixed & Mobile) 32.1 38.7 2013 2014E Global Messaging Revenues Lost to OTT Applications, USD (Billion) SMS How much have operators lost? Source: Frost & Sullivan Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  9. 9. What’s the reason for this optimism? • What’s the main asset that operators have to compete with OTTs? Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  10. 10. Strong interest from consumers for operator-provided OTT-like comms app Which of the following would make you interested in using an OTT-like app provided by your mobile operator? Source: Ovum Consumer Insights Survey, July 2014 • 79% of respondents interested in operator OTTlike comms app • Demand for enhanced experience building on SMS • Operator-centric features attract consumers • Reach, bundling, preloading also important 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% If the app came pre-loaded on my handset The app was bundled into my data plan The app came as a free upgrade to the standard SMS service The app included exclusive features, such as enhanced voice mail, that others weren't able to provide The app allowed me to easily contact people outside of the operator network Nothing would make me interested in such an application Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  11. 11. Important Factors in an OTT Service Package 52% Content-related 39% Price-related Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  12. 12. Telco-OTT voice/messaging applications + also TelcoOTT content, cloud, advanced comms, TV, developer platforms… Orange Libon Swisscom iO NTT 050 plus Comcast Xfinity Connect China Mobile Jego Telefonica Tuenti (WebRTC) Rogers One-Number Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  13. 13. Adoption of IP messaging apps has increased strongly Penetration rates of various communication services (n=1081 (2011) and 1596 (2013)) [Source: Analysys Mason and Nielsen, 2014] Video call Twitter VoIP IP messaging Social networking Email SMS/MMS Mobile voice Percentage of panelists 2013 2011 Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  14. 14. The timing of your response is driven by the value of the messaging market and the level of threat from OTT IM Penetration of Base SMS as % of Revenue High Low 5% 20% 15% Fight back 4 3 2 1 Grow SMS Lock in SMS Prepare to act -Drive SMS abundance -Launch RCS -Protect SMS revenues -Broad deployment of RCS -Grow SMS usage before OTTs enabled -Restrict arbitrage opportunities when driving data adoption -Protect SMS revenues -Prepare for RCS launch 10% Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  15. 15. Apps are becoming multi-modal communication platforms EMAP: Emerging Markets and Asia Pacific countries Features used in communications apps Source: Analysys Mason - 2015 Question: Which of the following features do you use through communications apps such as Line, Skype and WhatsApp; n = various Other Celebs, brands etc. Stickers Games Video calls Voice messages Paid-for voice calls Free voice calls File sharing Messaging Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  16. 16. Popularity of messaging apps is more than price: they successfully gather together peer group activities Features used on communications and social networking apps Time spent using IP messaging apps as a proportion of overall time spent using messaging services, by age and country Country Age group 18–24 25–34 35–44 45+ France 19% 8% 9% 8% Germany 79% 84% 78% 76% UK 52% 31% 28% 23% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% USA 28% 21% 17% 17% Other Stickers Paid-for voice calls Following… Voice messages Video calls File sharing Games Free voice calls Messaging Percentage of respondents [Source: Analysys Mason and Nielsen, 2014] Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  17. 17. Pure-play VoIP is still to demonstrate broader appeal Source: Analysys Mason - 2015 Reasons given for not using voice/video calling apps, selected advanced countries Question: “Why do you not use apps to make phone calls on your mobile phone”; n = 3548 (2015), varies (2014). Unsure Other These apps are too complicated to set up The call quality/reliability is poor I am worried about data usage I see no benefit in doing so I have plenty of minutes available already Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  18. 18. VoIP services currently lack compelling reasons for most end-users to migrate usage Reasons given by VoIP service users for not using VoIP on a mobile handset [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  19. 19. The Worldwide Growth of OTT Video Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  20. 20. We continue to see strong potential in OTT Video Expected ARPU of OTT Video subscribers1 USD 1. Defined as premium over-the-top Video-on-Demand (VoD) content, distributed over the Internet. Source: statista.com, Google’s Consumer Barometer, 2014-15, A.T. Kearney 6% 10% 6% 4% 1% CAGR ‘15-’20 US TURKEY KSA CHINA INDIA FTA broadcasters/ Content producers 14% Satellite Pay TV operators 18% Dedicated OTT Video service providers 32% Telecom operators Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  21. 21. SVOD and AVOD services have been growing rapidly in the UK Compared to 6 months ago, users of SVOD and Catch-Up services are watching more on these platforms, at the expense of both traditional physical products as well as live, scheduled TV. Source: Gfk, 2015 F_CHABBITS To what extent are you watching/using more or less of the following now, compared to 6 months ago? Base: All using each service 19% 10% 7% 8% 13% 8% 10% 5% 3% 3% 17% 22% 23% 21% 15% 15% 7% 11% 12% 5% On-Demand streaming services that you pay a subscription to receive Free TV Catch-up or On-Demand On-Demand offered free as part of your Pay TV package Recorded or time shifted content Other sources Free online video Scheduled / Live content Pay per view (rental) video on demand services DVD or Blu-ray disc you own/have rented Paid for download to own video content Watching a lot more than before Watching a little more than before On-Demand SVOD services Free TV Catch-up or On-Demand On-Demand free as part of Pay TV Recorded or time-shifted content Other sources Free online video Scheduled/Live content Pay-per-view on demand service DVD or Blu-ray Paid-for download Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  22. 22. The big picture: OTT Video 􀂃 Total OTT revenues hit US$ 320 million in 2015, will double to $650m in 2019 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Eastern Europe OTT Video revenues ($m) OTT Video market split is now largely set Source: Ovum SVOD 71% TVOD 13% EST 16% Eastern Europe OTT digital video revenue in 2019 split by platform Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  23. 23. Video calling is more widely used than VoIP in most markets Highest penetration amongst migrant worker populations Correlation between penetration of VoIP and video calling service usage. Video calling was a more widely used service than VoIP on handsets. • adds value to the experience in typical use cases, overwhelmingly on Wi-Fi. • apps perceived primarily as video apps, rather than simply cheap voice. Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  24. 24. Consumer demand: Higher quality content on the rise  Consumers want higher quality content; trend is echoed in the general global pay TV subscribers growth  Exposure to existing Ultra HD content – whether over the internet, in movies etc – is building consumers’ interest in Ultra HD Source: IHS Trax Global Pay TV subscriptions Millions of subscribers Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  25. 25. Pay-OTT Over the Next 3 Years Number of pay-OTT services Few Many 1. Nascent 2. Fast growing 3. Plateauing 4. Consolidating = present = in 3 years Nascent OTT markets Accelerating OTT markets Advanced OTT markets Consensus: pay-OTT services will grow strongly over the next 3 years Pay-OTT New Services OTT Partnership Success Factors Third-party OTT Partnerships OTT Marketplace +70% growth 4-5 launches 67% Yes Ease of integration Strong user experience Business tools & services Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  26. 26. Nevertheless, app users also remain heavy users of legacy services Average SMS/MMS usage for users and non-users of IP messaging apps, by age and country (n = various) Average voice usage for users and non-users of VoIP apps, by age and country (n = various) Source: Analysys Mason and Nielsen, 2014 Average outgoing messages per day Average outgoing minutes per month Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  27. 27. What have we learned … ? … and what should operators do about it? 28  Defend and evolve operator comms capabilities  Leverage voice (and video)  Extend multi-device presence  Selectively offer segmented service offerings  Provide back-end support for others’ real-time capabilities Operator actions  Providing an everlarger suite of services  Enhancing native capabilities of devices, integrating services into OS  Moving into real-time voice and video  Segmenting more effectively  Developing new business models to support the above Internet players  Blurring between comms and entertainment  Rich communications within peer groups  Fragmentation across interfaces and apps  Many features beyond core expertise of operators  Real-time capabilities still emerging, but good fit End-user trends Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com
  28. 28. Any Questions? Ali.Saghaeian [at] gmail.com

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