2. Disaster Risk Management

3. What is Risk
?

4. The probability that a
community’s structure or
geographic area is to be
damaged or disrupted by
the impact of a particular
hazard/disaster.
RISKRISK

5. Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar
RISK
Probability or likelihood of something happening in the future which has
a negative consequence
Risk= Probability (P) x Loss (L)
RISKS are the anticipated consequences (e.g. losses or damage) that can
be predicted to result from a particular hazard affecting a particular place at a
particular time
Disaster Risk
Disaster Risk is the likelihood of harmful consequences or losses (death,
injuries, destroyed property, disrupted economic activities or damaged
environment) resulting from interaction between a hazard and
vulnerable conditions.
Disaster Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability
Capacity

6. Hazard
The Concept of Risk
Risk
Vulnerability

7. Hazard Vulnerabilityx Disaster Risk
Capacity
=

8. Understanding of Disaster Risk
Management
Disaster Risk Management is the most complex,
interrelated and multi-connected discipline.
It is the human intervention behavior which creates
negative and positive conditions for natural
ecological system.
All the negative conditions increase in the human
vulnerabilities/ risk and the positive condition increase
the capacities/ opportunities for the ecological system.

9. Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar
Disaster Risk Management
DRM is about identifying & analysing risks, &
deciding what to do about them.
DRM is a problem-solving & decision-making
process, which will assist us in selecting the
most effective actions.

10. Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar
Risk Management ...
 RISK MANAGEMENT is a comprehensive strategy for
reducing threats and consequences to public health and
safety by:
 preventing exposure to hazards (target = hazards)
 reducing vulnerabilities (target group = community)
 Developing capacities (target group = response agencies)

11. Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar
Risk Management

12. Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar
Child at home alone

13. Why DRM?
 The world is facing a large scale of disasters.
 Nearly 25% of the world’s landmass and
most of its population is at risk.
 Disasters’ impacts are exacerbated by a
series of dynamic processes, including
population growth, increasing levels of
vulnerability, poor planning, climate change etc.

14. Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar
One view of risk
 fatalities
 injuries
 disease (mental and physical)
 secondary hazards (fire, disease etc.)
 contamination of the environment
 displacement
 breakdown in security
 damage to infrastructure
 breakdown in essential services
 loss of property
 loss of income

15. Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar
Another view
What are our problems?
Which ones need attention?
What do we want to do about them?
How and when do we intend to do this?
And once we have started to take action…
How are we doing?
Are we getting the results we want?

16. Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar
A risk management process is to:
Identify risks
Analyse and prioritise risks
Identify risk management strategies
Implement strategies
Monitor, evaluate and adjust as necessary

17. Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar
Diagrammatic Overview
of the Process

18. Establish the
general context of
management
Risk
identification
risks
statements
Risk analysis
Levels of risk
Risk
evaluation
Prioritisation
of risk
Risk
treatment
Identify
source of
risks:
hazards
Identify
elements at
risk:
community +
environment
Describe &
analyze
Describe &
analyze
Determine probability and
likelihood
Determine consequences
Develop risk
evaluation criteria
Prevention- mitigation
Preparedness
-Response - Recovery
Avoid, accept, mitigate,
reduce, transfer, modify
risk
Options identification
Options evaluation
Options selection
Plan & implement
options
Communicate
Consult
Monitor &
Review
Capacity
Development
1
2
3
4
5
Process Overview

19. Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar
Identifying risks
• A risk consists of two components:
• an element at risk
• a source of risk
• Elements at risk are things your
community values which could be
exposed to harm
• Sources of risks are the hazards that may
cause harm

20. Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar
Elements at risk
•people
•buildings
•infrastructure
•equipment
•environment
•organisations
•culture and heritage
•livelihoods
•crops and farmland
•services

21. Activity
What are Elements at Risk in case of:
1.Floods
2.Earthquakes
3.Landsliding
4.Drought

22. Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar
Risk Matrix
Sources of risk
Elements structural building land- earth- storm flood
at risk fire collapse slide quake
people      
crops      
buildings      
equipment      

23. Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar
Some examples
There is a risk that:
Buildings could collapse in an earthquake
Crops could be destroyed in a flood
Water supplies could be contaminated in a flood
Public confidence could be reduced in an
epidemic

24. Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar
Prioritising risks
A way to prioritise risks is by relative
probability & consequence of each risk
- Probability is the likelihood that something may
happen in the future.
- Consequence is the degree of harm that a risk may
cause.
This allows you to determine which risks
require immediate action

25. Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar
An example of describing probability
Category
certain
likely
possible
unlikely
Description
known to occur often – 2 times a year
may/has occurred – every 1-2 years
could possibly occur – once every 5-10 years
unexpected to occur – perhaps once every 100 years

26. Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar
An example of describing consequence
Category
minor
moderate
major
disastrous
catastrophic
no deaths or injuries, some equipment or facility
damage
some injuries, significant facility damage, some loss
of crops
serious injuries, some facilities destroyed,
significant loss of crops
many injuries, some fatalities, key facilities
destroyed, serious loss of livelihoods
large numbers of injured, many fatalities, many key
facilities destroyed, devastating loss of livelihoods
Description

27. Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar
An example of describing risk levels
consequence
probability minor moderate major disastrous catastrophic
certain medium high high very high very high
likely medium medium high high very high
possible low low medium high high
unlikely very low low medium high high

28. Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar
By using probability & consequence, it is
possible to compare & prioritise very different
risks
After prioritising the risks, you can then
prioritise actions to manage the risks
You can also justify the decisions taken

29. Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar
Managing risks
• Some options for managing risks include:
• reducing probability
• reducing potential consequence
• removing the source of risk
• removing the element at risk
• Developing preparedness plans
• Preparing recovery plans