Keynote - Kate Blumberg
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Armonización de políticas para vehículos ligeros nuevos en América del Norte: Estándares de eficiencia energética, gases de efecto invernadero y contaminantes criterio 7/9/2014-7/10/2014 Mexico City
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Keynote - Kate Blumberg
- 1. 1!
- 2. 2 ¿Cuáles son los contaminantes de interés? Ozono (VOC + NOx) Carbon monoxide! (CO) Neblina Partículas (PM10/PM2.5) NOx, SOx, VOC, ammonia Toxicos Gases de Efecto Invernadero - CO2, CH4, Carbono Negro, N2O, HFC Ø Michael Walsh! Slide 2
- 3. 3! Diesel exhaust harmful to health and climate! § Globally, diesel vehicles produce 90 percent of PM and 95 percent of BC emissions (ICCT Health Roadmap)! § One kg of black carbon causes as much climate impact in the near term as 3,200 kg of carbon dioxide (Forster, et al.)! § BC is the second largest contributor to climate warming from human activities (Bond, et al.)! Vehicle Non-CO2 GHG emissions (2000-2030)! Calculated using GWP-20. Non-CO2 GHGs include BC, CH4, N2O, OC, SO2! theicct.org/global-health-roadmap!
- 4. 4! National vehicle emission control programs! Annual premature mortality by region, 2000–2030! 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Early deaths Best Practice China & India Non-EU Europe, Russia, & Latin America Other Countries New standards could avoid 210,000 early deaths in 2030 and 25 million of years of life through 2030. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Global health impacts from urban vehicle particle emissions to increase 150% by 2030 unless new vehicle and fuel standards are adopted. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 -7% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 -79% -74% -80% Baseline Accelerated (%) Data labels indicate percent reduction from Baseline in 2030 Source: ICCT Health Roadmap (2013)!
- 5. Exposure to Diesel Emissions Changes How We See Air Pollution in Large Cities! 350,000! 300,000! 250,000! 200,000! 150,000! 100,000! 50,000! Lima, PE! Manila, RP! Shanghai, CH*! Santiago, CI! Singapore, SN! Beirut, LE! Brussels, BE! Source: World Health Organization, 2011; GBD 2010 estimates where marked * 5 24! 325,365! 0! 100! 90! 80! 70! 60! 50! 40! 30! 20! 10! 0! Cairo, EG*! Sao Paulo, BR! Mexico City, MX! Delhi, IN*! Karachi, PK*! Mumbai, IN*! Beijing, CH*! New York, US! Paris, FR! Riyadh, SA*! London, UK! P'yongyang, KN*! Rome, IT! Dar es Salaam, TZ! Berlin, GM! Antananarivo, MA! Dakar, SG! Dubai, AE*! Toronto, CA! Accra, GH! Prague, CZ! Diesel PM2.5 intake (grams inhaled), 2015! Annual PM2.5 Concentration (μg/m3)! 10! 10! 10 μg/m3 WHO PM2.5 10! Annual Air Quality Guideline!
- 6. Los estándares de emisiones en los vehículos nuevos ofrecen un gran potencial de reducción! § Los programas europeos y estadounidenses son ejemplares en 0.45! 0.40! 0.35! 0.30! 0.25! 0.20! 0.15! 0.10! 0.05! 0.00! Conventional! Euro 1! Euro 2! Euro 3! Euro 4! Euro 5! Euro 6! Average lifetime emission factor (grams PM2.5/VKT)! Fuel Sulfur Level! HHDT diesel! LDV diesel! forzar la mejora tecnológica! § El estándar Euro sigue una tendencia como se muestra más abajo ! Diesel: 2,000 ppm! 500 ppm! 350 ppm! 50 ppm! 10 ppm! -25%! -40%! -20%! -75%! -90%! -99%! -65%! -20%! -30%! -95%! -99%! Factores de emisión basados en COPERT 4, versión 10.0! Vida promedio de los factores de emisión!
- 7. Full Effects Take Time To Realize! 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TTW PM2.5 Emissions, thousand metric tons On-road Emissions and Emission Standards in the EU LDV HDVs 2-wheelers Diesel ppm! Gasoline ppm! LDV! HDV! 2-wheelers! 350 ppm! 50 ppm! 10 ppm! 150 ppm! 50 ppm! 10 ppm! Euro 3! Euro 4! Euro 5! Euro 6! Euro III! Euro IV! Euro V! Euro VI! 2000! 2005! 2010! 2015! 2020! 2025! 2030!
- 8. Timeline for implementation of nationwide emissions standards for light-duty vehicles!
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- 15. PM standards for diesel passenger vehicles! 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 0.055 0.05 0.045 0.04 0.035 0.03 0.025 0.02 0.015 0.01 0.005 0 Tier1 Baseline2008gasoline Dieselw/oDPF 2015gasoline(GDI) Dieselw/DPF Par?culateMaDer(g/mi) Par?culateMaDer(g/km) NOM042 CaliforniaLEVIII Tier1/CurrentMexicostandard Tier2 Tier3 LEVIII(fullyphasedinby2028) Tier2 Tier3
- 16. Impact of fuel sulfur! § Diesel fuel quality! § 15 ppm required for Tier 2 and beyond diesel vehicles.! § Higher sulfur will increase emissions rapidly and could damage vehicle.! § Gasoline fuel quality! § 30 average / 80 maximum for Tier 2! § 10 average / 80 maximum for Tier 3! § Sulfur locks up the precious metal sites on the catalyst, reducing catalyst efficiency. Important benefits from better catalysts even with higher sulfur fuels.! § Impacts of higher sulfur fuels are completely reversible. Possible to phase in cleaner fuels and vehicles at the same time.! 10!
- 17. Fundamentals of controlling air pollutant emissions from motor vehicles! New vehicle standards! ! Must consider emissions from all mobile sources: on-road, off-road, marine, locomotives, aviation, construction…! ! Limit values only as good as:! - Compliance and enforcement! - Real-world performance! ! Fuel quality standards! ! High fuel quality (especially low sulfur levels) enables advanced emission control technologies to be deployed in the fleet.! ! Fuel quality compliance programs critical to prevent damage to engines and prevent misfueling! ! ! In-use vehicle emission control! Measures include:! - Catching gross-emitters (I/M, remote sensing, maintenance) - Cleaner fuels! - Fleet renewal! - Retrofit programs! - Complementary strategies (low emission zones, driver training, etc.)! “Systems Approach”! Not shown but also important: transportation demand management, modal shift, traffic optimization, and more!
- 18. 12! Real-world emissions! Source: Chen Borken-Kleefeld, AtmEnv. 88 (2014) !
- 19. Options to reduce transport emissions! Objective! Program! Form! PM! BC! CO2! New vehicles! Stringent standards! Mandatory; federal! ✔! ✔! Existing vehicles! Lower sulfur fuels! Government implemented; generally federal! ✔! Retrofits for PM and NOx control! Generally voluntary; local; fiscal incentives! ✔! ! ✔! Transporte Limpio/ SmartWay! Generally voluntary; federal and local collaboration; fiscal incentives! ✔! ✔! ✔! Accelerated fleet renovation/Scrappage! Voluntary or mandatory; local or federal; fiscal incentives! ✔! ✔! I/M, remote sensing, spotter programs! Mandatory; generally local! ✔! ✔! ✔! Complementary measures! Low Emission Zones! Mandatory; local! ✔! ✔! Anti-idling restrictions! Mandatory; local! ✔! ✔! ✔! Driver training program! Voluntary; local! ✔! Demand and mode shifting! Congestion relief measures! Range from mandatory to voluntary to government-implemented; local! ✔! ✔! ✔! Improve non-motorized public transit options! Government-implemented; local! ✔! ✔! ✔! Parking programs! Mandatory or fee-based; local! ✔!
- 20. ¡Gracias!! Kate Blumberg! Senior Fellow! ICCT! kate@theicct.org! +1-415-640-6352! 14!
- 21. NOM-042 vigente (opciones de EPA y Euro)! 15!
- 22. NOM 042 vigente, línea de tiempo! 16!
- 23. US and Mexico standards for NOx and PM! 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 NOx$and$PMx10$(g/km)$ MexicoPM(x10) USPM(x10) MexicoNOx(US) USNOx