Presented by Scott Sambucci (Altos Research) at the IE Group's Predictive Analytics Summit, "Predicting the Housing Market with Buyer & Seller Psychology" reviews real-time and leading housing market indicators to predict future home prices.

1. PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS SUMMIT
Scott Sambucci, Altos Research
November 2010 | San Francisco, CA

2. WHO, WHAT, WHERE, WHEN, WHY & HOW
• Altos Research
• Real-time housing market analytics
• 180+ metros, 20,000 zip codes
• What is happening & what will happen, not what
happened
• Wisdom of crowds
• The Active Market to forecast future market activity

3. APPLICATIONS OF REAL-TIME ANALYTICS
• Current Market Conditions
• Future Housing Prices
• Consumer Sentiment
• Mortgage Default Rates
• Financial Market

4. MISLEADING NATURE OF TRANSACTION PRICES

5. MIAMI CONDOS: MARKET IMPROVED IN 2009?
Did values really
moved higher?
The actives knew the
market was weak

6. PREDICTING FUTURE PRICES
SPCS20R Active Prices
205.00 $445,000
195.00
$425,000
185.00
$405,000
175.00
165.00 $385,000
155.00
$365,000
145.00
$345,000
135.00
125.00 $325,000

7. QE2 & THE HOUSING MARKET: SUPPLY & DEMAND
PROBLEM

8. CONSUMER SENTIMENT & HOUSING

9. MORTGAGES 60 DAYS DELINQUENT FOR THE
FIRST TIME

10. FICO & LTVS – BECOMING IRRELEVANT

11. DELINQUENCIES PEAK AT MARKET TROUGH
New delinquencies
perfectly correlated to
market conditions

12. MORTGAGE DEFAULT RATES & MARKET CONDITIONS
New delinquencies
perfectly correlated to
market conditions

13. THE HOUSING MARKET & THE S&P 500
S&P 500 Active Prices
1,500.00 $415,000
1,400.00 $405,000
1,300.00 $395,000
1,200.00
$385,000
1,100.00
$375,000
1,000.00
$365,000
900.00
$355,000
800.00
700.00 $345,000
600.00 $335,000
500.00 $325,000

14. CONTACT
Scott Sambucci, VP Data Analytics
Altos Research
www.altosresearch.com
(415) 931-7942
scott@altosresearch.com
http://blog.altosresearch.com
@scottsambucci

15. PROPERTY TAXES
http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2010/10/real-estate-and-municipal-revenue.html