Stock Market Brief Deck for "this does not happen often".pdf
Fundamental Equity Analysis & Analyst Recommendations - MSCI APEX 50 Index Components
1. This material does not constitute investment advice and should not be
viewed as a current or past recommendation or a solicitation of an
offer to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.
Fundamental Analysis &
Analyst Recommendations
MSCI APEX 50 Index Components
February 2013
Q M S Advisors
. .
Q.M.S Advisors | Avenue de la Gare, 1 1003 Lausanne | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
4. 21.02.2013
AIA Group Ltd
AIA Group Ltd. offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes Price/Volume
life insurance for individuals and businesses, accident and health insurance,
35 2500.0 M
retirement planning, and wealth management services.
30
2000.0 M
25
20 1500.0 M
Valuation Analysis 15 1000.0 M
Latest Fiscal Year: 11/2011 10
LTM as of: 01/yy 500.0 M
5
52-Week High (21.02.2013) 32.50
0 .0 M
52-Week Low (04.06.2012) 24.05 f-12 m-12 a-12 m-12 j-12 j-12 a-12 s-12 o-12 n-12 d-12 j-13 f-13
Daily Volume 43'064'252.00
Current Price (2/dd/yy) 32.1 Market Data
52-Week High % Change -1.23% Dividend Yield 1.07
52-Week Low % Change 33.47% Beta 0.85
% 52 Week Price Range High/Low 100.00% Equity Float 12'039.65
Shares Out 30.11.2012 12'044.0 Short Int -
Market Capitalization 386'612.38 1 Yr Total Return 19.97%
Total Debt 1'229.00 YTD Return 6.12%
Preferred Stock 0.0 Adjusted BETA 0.847
Minority Interest 102.0 Analyst Recs 23
Cash and Equivalents 4'303.00 Consensus Rating 4.304
Enterprise Value 48'107.84 Average Daily Trading Volume
Relative Stock Price Performance Average Volume 5 Day 35'651'890
1299 HK EQUITY YTD Change - Average Volume 30 Day 39'619'360
1299 HK EQUITY YTD % CHANGE - Average Volume 3 Month 67'483'780
Fiscal Year Ended LTM-4Q LTM FY+1 FY+2 FQ+1 FQ+2
30.11.2007 30.11.2008 30.11.2009 30.11.2010 30.11.2011 01/yy 01/yy 11/12 Y 11/13 Y - -
Total Revenue 15'226.0 3'810.0 19'016.0 18'394.0 14'385.0 - - 18'251.3 20'560.8 - -
TEV/Revenue - - - 1.85x 2.33x - - 2.64x 2.46x - -
EBITDA - - - - - - - - - - -
TEV/EBITDA - - - - - - - - - - -
Net Income 1'914.0 408.0 1'754.0 2'701.0 1'600.0 - - 2'659.0 2'842.2 - -
P/E - - - 13.14x 23.31x - - 19.07x 17.24x - -
Profitability S&P Issuer Ratings
EBITDA - Long-Term Rating Date -
EBIT - Long-Term Rating -
Operating Margin 15.24% Long-Term Outlook -
Pretax Margin 15.07% Short-Term Rating Date -
Return on Assets 1.47% Short-Term Rating -
Return on Common Equity 7.84% Credit Ratios
Return on Capital 7.34% EBITDA/Interest Exp. -
Asset Turnover 0.12% (EBITDA-Capex)/Interest Exp. -
Margin Analysis Net Debt/EBITDA -
Gross Margin - Total Debt/EBITDA -
EBITDA Margin - Reference
EBIT Margin - Total Debt/Equity 5.8%
Net Income Margin 11.1% Total Debt/Capital 5.4%
Structure Asset Turnover 0.12
Current Ratio - Net Fixed Asset Turnover -
Quick Ratio - Accounts receivable turnover-days -
Debt to Assets 1.07% Inventory Days -
Tot Debt to Common Equity 5.77% Accounts Payable Turnover Day -
Accounts Receivable Turnover - Cash Conversion Cycle -
Inventory Turnover -
Price/ Cash Flow Sales/Revenue/Turnover
140.00 20'000.0
18'000.0
120.00
16'000.0
100.00 14'000.0
12'000.0
80.00
10'000.0
60.00 8'000.0
6'000.0
40.00
4'000.0
20.00 2'000.0
0.00
0.0
05.12.2008 05.06.2009 05.12.2009 05.06.2010 05.12.2010 05.06.2011 05.12.2011 05.06.2012 05.12.2012 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
5. 21.02.2013
AIA Group Ltd
Holdings By: All
Holder Name Portfolio Name Source Amt Held % Out Latest Chg File Dt Inst Type
CAPITAL GROUP COMPAN n/a ULT-AGG 1'431'991'813 11.89 75'997'000 10.01.2013 Investment Advisor
JP MORGAN n/a ULT-AGG 947'131'193 7.86 (27'400) 17.12.2012 Unclassified
BLACKROCK n/a ULT-AGG 872'440'983 7.24 2'199'200 19.02.2013 Investment Advisor
ABERDEEN n/a ULT-AGG 607'474'500 5.04 - 23.01.2013 Unclassified
FMR LLC n/a ULT-AGG 306'826'224 2.55 52'083'324 31.12.2012 Investment Advisor
VANGUARD GROUP INC Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 298'181'135 2.48 41'460'521 31.12.2012 Investment Advisor
WADDELL & REED FINAN Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 279'263'500 2.32 33'684'200 31.12.2012 Investment Advisor
CARMIGNAC GESTION Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 219'402'776 1.82 67'540'336 31.12.2012 Investment Advisor
T ROWE PRICE ASSOCIA Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 132'900'800 1.1 8'571'000 31.12.2012 Investment Advisor
LEXINGTON INSURANCE LEXINGTON INSURANCE Sch-D 119'148'250 0.99 119'148'250 30.09.2012 Insurance Company
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 107'408'000 0.89 852'800 31.10.2012 Bank
THORNBURG INVESTMENT Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 104'143'762 0.86 50'914'552 31.12.2012 Investment Advisor
JANUS CAPITAL MANAGE n/a ULT-AGG 104'087'200 0.86 3'339'200 31.12.2012 Investment Advisor
WILLIAM BLAIR & COMP WILLIAM BLAIR & COMP 13F 86'696'300 0.72 1'568'200 31.12.2012 Investment Advisor
STATE STREET GLOBAL Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 85'271'979 0.71 11'139'725 30.06.2012 Investment Advisor
ARTISAN PARTNERS HOL Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 84'229'621 0.7 1'779'400 31.12.2012 Investment Advisor
OPPENHEIMERFUNDS INC Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 79'225'000 0.66 - 30.12.2012 Investment Advisor
SCHRODER INVESTMENT Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 77'373'800 0.64 50'369'000 31.12.2012 Investment Advisor
MASSACHUSETTS FINANC Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 50'209'800 0.42 (2'170'000) 31.12.2012 Investment Advisor
ALLIANCE BERNSTEIN n/a ULT-AGG 44'959'365 0.37 (1'172'032) 31.12.2012 Investment Advisor
Firm Name Analyst Recommendation Weighting Change Target Price Date Date
Jefferies BARON NIE buy 5 M 35 12 month 20.02.2013
HSBC MICHAEL P CHANG overweight 5 M 40 Not Provided 20.02.2013
ICBC International Securities PIUS CHENG buy 5 M 37 Not Provided 20.02.2013
Morgan Stanley BEN LIN Overwt/Attractive 5 M 38 12 month 19.02.2013
BNP Paribas Equity Research DOMINIC CHAN buy 5 M 40 12 month 18.02.2013
CCB International Securities Ltd KENNETH YUE outperform 5 M 36 Not Provided 07.02.2013
Nomura DAVID CHUNG buy 5 M 36 Not Provided 06.02.2013
China International Capital Corp SALLY NG hold 3 M 33 12 month 01.02.2013
Deutsche Bank ESTHER CHWEI buy 5 M 38 12 month 31.01.2013
Standard Chartered PETER O'BRIEN outperform 5 M 38 12 month 30.01.2013
CIMB BERTRAM LAI outperform 5 M 34 12 month 18.01.2013
EVA Dimensions AUSTIN BURKETT sell 1 M #N/A N/A Not Provided 17.01.2013
JPMorgan CHAN BAO LING overweight 5 M 34 9 month 16.01.2013
Macquarie SCOTT G RUSSELL neutral 3 M 29 12 month 16.01.2013
BOCOM International Holdings LI WENBING long-term buy 5 M 38 12 month 19.12.2012
Credit Suisse ARJAN VAN VEEN outperform 5 M 34 Not Provided 13.12.2012
ABC International FRANCIS CHAN buy 5 M 35 12 month 11.12.2012
Fortune CLSA Securities Limited YANG YAN sell 1 M 29 12 month 24.10.2012
Goldman Sachs MANCY SUN Buy/Neutral 5 M 38 12 month 18.10.2012
AMTD Financial Planning Limited KENNY TANG SING HING buy 5 M 32 Not Provided 11.10.2012
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
6. 21.02.2013
Bank of China Ltd
Bank of China Ltd provides a complete range of banking and other financial Price/Volume
services to individual and corporation customers worldwide. The bank's services
5 4500.0 M
include retail banking, Great Wall credit card and debit card services, consumer 4 4000.0 M
credit, foreign currency transaction, corporate banking, settlement and 4 3500.0 M
clearing,investment banking, and fund management businesses. 3 3000.0 M
3 2500.0 M
Valuation Analysis 2 2000.0 M
Latest Fiscal Year: 12/2011 2 1500.0 M
1 1000.0 M
LTM as of: 09/yy
1 500.0 M
52-Week High (04.02.2013) 4.00
0 .0 M
52-Week Low (06.09.2012) 2.73 f-12 m-12 a-12 m-12 j-12 j-12 a-12 s-12 o-12 n-12 d-12 j-13 f-13
Daily Volume 432'699'615.00
Current Price (2/dd/yy) 3.71 Market Data
52-Week High % Change -7.25% Dividend Yield 5.19
52-Week Low % Change 35.90% Beta 1.10
% 52 Week Price Range High/Low 84.25% Equity Float 72'987.26
Shares Out 31.12.2012 83'622.3 Short Int -
Market Capitalization 1'031'917.31 1 Yr Total Return 17.09%
Total Debt 1'916'969.00 YTD Return 7.23%
Preferred Stock 0.0 Adjusted BETA 1.098
Minority Interest 32'732.0 Analyst Recs 40
Cash and Equivalents 3'128'981.00 Consensus Rating 4.250
Enterprise Value - Average Daily Trading Volume
Relative Stock Price Performance Average Volume 5 Day #########
3988 HK EQUITY YTD Change - Average Volume 30 Day #########
3988 HK EQUITY YTD % CHANGE - Average Volume 3 Month #########
Fiscal Year Ended LTM-4Q LTM FY+1 FY+2 FQ+1 FQ+2
31.12.2007 31.12.2008 31.12.2009 31.12.2010 31.12.2011 09/yy 09/yy 12/12 Y 12/13 Y 12/12 Q4 03/13 Q1
Total Revenue 305'131.0 355'641.0 337'018.0 395'271.0 514'133.0 481'959.0 600'914.0 359'939.7 389'926.4 - -
TEV/Revenue - - - - - 0.00x 0.00x - - - -
EBITDA - - - - - 0.0 0.0 - - - -
TEV/EBITDA - - - - - 0.00x 0.00x - - - -
Net Income 56'248.0 64'360.0 80'819.0 104'418.0 124'182.0 121'518.0 134'244.0 132'276.9 135'322.9 26'023.0 34'739.0
P/E 16.08x 7.47x 11.62x 8.91x 5.27x 4.52x 5.07x 6.34x 6.21x 6.22x 6.09x
Profitability S&P Issuer Ratings
EBITDA - Long-Term Rating Date 29.11.2011
EBIT - Long-Term Rating A
Operating Margin 49.70% Long-Term Outlook STABLE
Pretax Margin 51.24% Short-Term Rating Date 29.11.2011
Return on Assets 1.06% Short-Term Rating A-1
Return on Common Equity 18.13% Credit Ratios
Return on Capital 4.46% EBITDA/Interest Exp. -
Asset Turnover 0.05% (EBITDA-Capex)/Interest Exp. -
Margin Analysis Net Debt/EBITDA -
Gross Margin - Total Debt/EBITDA -
EBITDA Margin - Reference
EBIT Margin - Total Debt/Equity 265.1%
Net Income Margin 37.7% Total Debt/Capital 71.7%
Structure Asset Turnover 0.05
Current Ratio - Net Fixed Asset Turnover 4.06
Quick Ratio - Accounts receivable turnover-days -
Debt to Assets 16.20% Inventory Days -
Tot Debt to Common Equity 265.08% Accounts Payable Turnover Day -
Accounts Receivable Turnover - Cash Conversion Cycle -
Inventory Turnover -
Price/ Cash Flow Sales/Revenue/Turnover
500.00 600'000.0
450.00
500'000.0
400.00
350.00 400'000.0
300.00
250.00 300'000.0
200.00
200'000.0
150.00
100.00 100'000.0
50.00
0.00
0.0
02.01.2009 02.07.2009 02.01.2010 02.07.2010 02.01.2011 02.07.2011 02.01.2012 02.07.2012 02.01.2013 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
7. 21.02.2013
Bank of China Ltd
Holdings By: All
Holder Name Portfolio Name Source Amt Held % Out Latest Chg File Dt Inst Type
BLACKROCK n/a ULT-AGG 8'617'225'126 10.3 2'728'000 19.02.2013 Investment Advisor
SOCIAL SECURITY FUND n/a EXCH 7'518'157'041 8.99 - 28.01.2013 Government
CAPITAL GROUP COMPAN n/a ULT-AGG 6'215'526'846 7.43 (718'311'000) 31.12.2012 Investment Advisor
JP MORGAN n/a ULT-AGG 4'086'780'221 4.89 340'300 20.11.2012 Unclassified
VANGUARD GROUP INC Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 3'866'697'268 4.62 (22'802'100) 31.12.2012 Investment Advisor
TEMASEK HOLDINGS PRI n/a ULT-AGG 3'116'864'905 3.73 - 04.05.2012 Government
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADV Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 1'069'156'835 1.28 - 31.07.2012 Investment Advisor
HANG SENG INVESTMENT Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 607'250'200 0.73 - 30.06.2012 Investment Advisor
STATE STREET GLOBAL Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 592'048'548 0.71 (31'815'851) 30.06.2012 Investment Advisor
MITSUBISHI UFJ FINAN n/a ULT-AGG 544'901'200 0.65 330'000 20.09.2012 Holding Company
FMR LLC n/a ULT-AGG 371'727'330 0.44 29'048'284 31.12.2012 Investment Advisor
T ROWE PRICE ASSOCIA Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 315'788'100 0.38 20'592'000 31.12.2012 Investment Advisor
ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BA n/a Co File 304'007'461 0.36 - 31.12.2011 Bank
PICTET & CIE Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 285'010'100 0.34 2'094'000 31.10.2012 Mutual Fund Manager
BANK OF NEW YORK MEL Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 277'062'108 0.33 40'712'016 19.02.2013 Investment Advisor
PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL n/a ULT-AGG 251'303'000 0.3 (6'140'000) 31.12.2012 Investment Advisor
SHINHAN BNP PARIBAS Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 248'698'686 0.3 89'135'000 28.09.2012 Investment Advisor
FRANKLIN RESOURCES n/a ULT-AGG 241'146'900 0.29 (36'939'000) 30.11.2012 Investment Advisor
STATE STREET n/a ULT-AGG 212'362'668 0.25 5'851'000 20.02.2013 Investment Advisor
EASTSPRING INVESTMEN Multiple Portfolios MF-AGG 191'503'000 0.23 - 14.09.2012 Investment Advisor
Firm Name Analyst Recommendation Weighting Change Target Price Date Date
Sanford C. Bernstein & Co MICHAEL WERNER outperform 5 M 5 12 month 20.02.2013
ICBC International Securities IVAN LIN buy 5 M 4 Not Provided 20.02.2013
JPMorgan KATHERINE LEI neutral 3 M 4 12 month 19.02.2013
Credit Suisse SANJAY JAIN neutral 3 M 4 Not Provided 14.02.2013
BOCOM International Holdings LI SHANSHAN long-term buy 5 M 4 12 month 06.02.2013
Core Pacific TIMOTHY LI hold 3 M 4 Not Provided 05.02.2013
Jefferies TAN MING buy 5 M 4 12 month 28.01.2013
UOB Kay Hian EDMOND LAW hold 3 M 4 Not Provided 25.01.2013
CCB International Securities Ltd SHENG NAN outperform 5 M 4 Not Provided 24.01.2013
Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. GRACE WU buy 5 M 4 Not Provided 22.01.2013
Mizuho Securities JIM ANTOS neutral 3 M 4 12 month 21.01.2013
Nomura LUCY FENG buy 5 M 4 Not Provided 21.01.2013
CIMB TREVOR KALCIC neutral 3 M 4 12 month 18.01.2013
EVA Dimensions AUSTIN BURKETT buy 5 M #N/A N/A Not Provided 17.01.2013
Religare Capital Markets SOPHIE JIANG buy 5 M 4 12 month 11.01.2013
SWS Research Co Ltd ROBERT HU neutral 3 M 4 Not Provided 09.01.2013
Deutsche Bank TRACY YU buy 5 M 4 12 month 07.01.2013
Macquarie VICTOR WANG outperform 5 M 4 12 month 19.12.2012
Barclays MAY YAN overweight 5 M 4 Not Provided 18.12.2012
ABC International JOHANNES AU hold 3 M 4 12 month 07.12.2012
Standard Chartered JOHN CAPARUSSO outperform 5 M 4 12 month 06.12.2012
HSBC TODD DUNIVANT overweight 5 M 4 Not Provided 26.11.2012
BNP Paribas Equity Research DORRIS CHEN buy 5 M 4 12 month 07.11.2012
Masterlink Securities RAINY YUAN hold 3 M 4 6 month 30.10.2012
Guotai Junan WILSON LI accumulate 4 M 4 Not Provided 30.10.2012
Bank of China International JINHUA YIN buy 5 M 4 Not Provided 26.10.2012
DBS Vickers ALEXANDER LEE buy 5 M 4 12 month 26.10.2012
Kim Eng Securities IVAN LI buy 5 M 4 12 month 26.10.2012
China International Capital Corp MAO JUNHUA buy 5 M 6 12 month 26.10.2012
Phillip Securities CHEN XINGYU accumulate 4 M 3 Not Provided 26.10.2012
AMTD Financial Planning Limited KENNY TANG SING HING buy 5 N 3 Not Provided 26.10.2012
Morgan Stanley RICHARD XU Equalwt/In-Line 3 M 3 12 month 25.10.2012
Goldman Sachs NING MA neutral/neutral 3 D 4 12 month 05.07.2012
Mirae Asset Securities NAN LI buy 5 M 4 12 month 03.07.2012
Citic Securities Co., Ltd ZHU YAN overweight 5 M #N/A N/A Not Provided 29.06.2012
Capital Securities Corp TEAM COVERAGE hold 3 M #N/A N/A Not Provided 27.04.2012
KGI Securities MICHELLE CHEN neutral 3 M 4 12 month 25.03.2010
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |