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The Energy-Water
Nexus on Cyprus



             Manfred A. Lange
Energy, Environment and Water Research Center
              The Cyprus Institute
    Workshop: Energy Issues Facing Cyprus
             Nicosia, 14. Oct. 2011

            Manfred A. Lange • 10/21/2011 • 1
Outline
•   Background: The Nexus concept
•   The Current Energy Sector
•   The Current Water Sector
•   The Energy-Water Nexus
•   Future Perspectives: Climate Change
•   Adaptation and Mitigation Measures
•   Conclusions
Background: The Nexus Concept1)
• There are rapidly increasing multiple pressures on the water, energy
  and food security, including:
   –   Growing demands on resources, and resource degradation
   –   Urbanization
   –   Globalization
   –   Climate change and the need for adaptation and mitigation
• The interactions and feedbacks between these pressures drive social-
  ecological systems at all scales towards critical thresholds and
  constitute the Water-Energy-Food Nexus
• To meet the nexus challenges a sustainability transition is required
• Conventional sectoral approaches and optimization of single goals will
  have to be replaced by co-management and co-governance of water-,
  energy-, food- (and environmental) security
• In this paper we focus on Cyprus and on the Water-Energy Nexus

               1) Based on: H. Hoff: Scientific Background Paper for the Bonn 2011
               Conference: The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus; DRAFT; pers. com.
The Current Energy Sector
• Cyprus energy sector heavily dependent on
  hydrocarbon imports
• Only 5% of the demand is satisfied through
  renewables (solar-thermal water heating)
• Energy consumption: transport dominates
• CO2 emissions of 8.403 Mill. t in 2008                             Main sources of energy in Cyprus; Kassini, 2006

•  well above EU allotment
   – National Allocation Plan, 2007: 6.252 Mill. t of CO2
   – total greenhouse gas emissions: 10.026 Mill. t
• Cyprus greenhouse gas emission reduction
  goals:
   – Fraction of RES: 13% (by 2020)
   – Energy efficiency enhancement: 10% (by 2016)

                                     Final energy consumption in
                                       Cyprus; after Kassini, 2006
                                                                                                               4
The Current Energy Sector
• Electricity capacity of three power stations (2008): 930 MW;
  production: 5 224 GWh; CO2 emissions of 4.196 Mill. t
• Three combined-cycle-gas-turbine (CCGT) -power plants (capacity
  220 MW) are/will be commissioned in 2009, 2011, 2013 resp.
• Electricity consumption
     – Steady increase since 1966
     – Summer and winter maxima
     – Domestic and commercial sectors dominate

                                                         Monthly maximum
                                                          electricity demand
                                                         (1997 to 2006; top)
                                                       and increase in mean
                                                          monthly electricity
                                                             consumption in
                                                        Cyprus (1966-2009;
                                                       bottom); source: TSO
                                                                       (2010)

Mean Sectoral Electricity Consumption in percent for
1975-2009 ; source: Statistical Services Cyprus_2010                            5
The Current Water Sector
• Reduced precipitation leads to low storage in dams  water scarcity
• Water Consumption in Cyprus
   – Agriculture dominates, domestic consumption is close second




                                                    Storage: 131 M m3
                                                        on 13.10.2011




                                                                        Sectoral water demand in Cyprus for 2011;
                                                                                    source: WDD, 2010

                Water storage in dams for 1988-2010; source:
                  Water Development Department, 2011                                                                6
The Current Water Sector
• Domestic Water Supply




          Government Water Works – Domestic Supply Sources 1991-2010; source:
                        Water Development Department, 2010                      7
The Current Water Sector
• Current seawater desalination:
   –   Water produced, 47,8 Mm3 = 66% of total demand (72,3 Mm3 )
   –   Total cost of desalination (1997-2007): M€ 218
   –   Annual electricity consumption: 214 GWh/year
   –   Combined contribution to national CO2 emissions (2009): 4,15%
• Additional seawater desalination:
   – Annually (max.): 44.5 Mm3 to be produced with conventional energy
   – Total (existing + new): 92,3 Mm3 per year  128 % of current demand

         Plant        Min. Yearly                    Cost    Cost
                      Prod.(Mm3)                     (M€)   (€/m3)
    Dhekelia               19,8                      16,2    0,82
    Larnaca                21,4                      22,3    1,08
    Moni                    6,6                       9,0    1,39
    Total/Mean             47,8                      47,5    1,01
                             Source: Manoli, 2010)
The Water-Energy Nexus
• In addressing the Water-Energy Nexus, the following issues should
  be considered:
   – Coolant water in electricity power plants
   – Electrical energy for seawater desalination
   – Energy for water pumping in large-scale distribution/irrigation distribution
     networks
• Cooling for the electric power stations
   – 6m3/s for each 100 MW of power generated  1,32×109m3/year for
     18h/day, 365 days
   – Sea water and water cooled condensers are utilized for cooling
   – Water is heated to 7oC above intake temperatures
   – However, due to outlet culvert design and enhanced mixing at outlet points
     water temperatures only slightly above ambient seawater temperatures
   – While the impact of coolant water release on near-coastal ecosystems is
     currently ill-defined, it may be minimal as a result of the described
     precautions taken
The Water-Energy Nexus
• Electrical energy for seawater desalination
   – Electricity need for seawater desalination: 4,5 kWh/m3
   – At current production, total electricity consumption: 214 GWh/year
   – For future expansion to annually 92,3 Mm3 of desalinated seawater:
     415,4 GWh/year  8% of the total electricity consumption for 2008
   – Enhanced emissions of CO2 are to be expected
• Energy for water transport and distribution
   – Currently no exact figures available
   – In the United States of America, 4% of the nation’s electricity use goes
     towards moving and treating water and wastewater
   – If we adopt this number for Cyprus  180 MWh/a of electricity will be
     expanded
   – This corresponds to 3.5% of the total electricity consumption for 2008
   – Enhanced emissions of CO2 are to be expected
Future Perspectives: Climate Change
   • Mean summer (JJA) maximum temperatures
                Reference Case                                                 ∆Tmax: ~1 to 3oC




1980 -1999                                    2000 - 2019




                ∆Tmax: ~2 to 5oC                                               ∆Tmax: ~3 to 8oC




2040 - 2059                                   2080 - 2099



              Projections of future climate conditions as derived from the PRECIS
                                          11
                  regional climate model; source: Hadjinicolaou, pers. comm.
Future Perspectives: Climate Change
• Climate extremes: hot days, warm nights, droughts
• Less winter rain
                                                  Today
Quantity                                                             2021-2050          2071-2100
                                               (1976-2000)
Days with Tmax > 35oC                                  60             85 (+42%)         120 (+100%)
Tropical Nights with Tmin > 25oC                       75             120 (+60%)        165 (+120%)
Dry spells: consecutive days with
                                                      100             108 (+8%)         120 (+20%)
precipitation < 1 mm




         ∆Pw ≈ -25% for 2021-2050                              ∆Pw ≈ -40% for 2071-2100




                      Average change in total winter precipitation (Pw ) relative to
                             reference; source: Hadjinicolaou, pers. comm.
Impacts: Increasing Energy Needs
• Additional energy needed for the space cooling and desalination
  considered for Cyprus are: ~670 000 MWh (15.4%) of the total
  electricity consumption for 2005 (TSO, 2010)
• Estimate of increasing energy needs conservative
• It does not take into considerations other sectors of the economy,
  which might similarly require additional energy/electricity under
  conditions of a warmer and drier climate
• Examples include:
   – Transport sector: sustained air-conditioning in cars  higher fuel
     consumption  increasing energy consumption
   – Services sector: increasing demand for air-conditioning and for additional
     potable water derived from seawater desalination  increasing
     energy/electricity consumption
• We expect an increase in energy demand of ~20 to 30% of the total
  electricity consumption in Cyprus for the period 2021-2050 relative
  to the 1961-1990 reference period
Adaptation/Mitigation: CSP-DSW
• Drawbacks of Seawater Desalination
  – Relatively energy-intensive
  – Use of conventional fuels: significant share of electricity
    consumption, noticeable CO2 emission
• Remedies
  – Switch from oil- to natural-gas fired power plants 
  – Import of water by ship 
     • In 2008: 8 Mm3 shipped from Greece; cost ∼€42 M (∼€5/m3)
  – Use of renewable energy
    sources
     • Solar energy seems most
       effective 
     • Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)
       holds significant promise                                    1 900
                                                                  kWh/m2




                                                                            14
Adaptation/Mitigation: CSP-DSW
• CSP Plants represent proven technology
• Due to heat storage  24h/7 d operation possible
• Modest land requirement: ≈25 km2 to satisfy all
  Cypriot electricity needs


                                                                               CSP Plant, Kramer Junction,, CA,
                                                                               USA




                                                                               CSP Plant, Kramer Junction,, CA,
                                                                                             USA
                  Schematic representation and flow diagram of a Typical CSP
                        power plant (Source: F. Morse, pers. comm.)                                          15
Adaptation/Mitigation: CSP-DSW
                                 Multi-Effect Desalination
• Co-Generation of Electricity
  &Water through CSP: how?
• Replace Cooling System
  by MED




                                                             16
Conclusions
• Current energy/electricity sector dominated by fossil fuel
  consumption  dependence on energy markets; CO2 emissions
• Climate projections: hot summers, increasing drought
• Impacts: increasing need for energy (20-30% of current
  consumption) and water (desalination)
• These challenges, constituting the Water-Energy Nexus on
  Cyprus; they have to be addressed holistically
• Solutions have to be found that strive to co-manage energy and
  water security
• Adaptation/Mitigation strategies
   – Co-generation of electricity and desalinated seawater through
     employment of concentrating solar power
• This technology has the potential to address the Water-Energy
  Nexus on Cyprus adequately
• It should be pursued vigorously

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Water and energy nexus_M Lange_Oct 2011

  • 1. The Energy-Water Nexus on Cyprus Manfred A. Lange Energy, Environment and Water Research Center The Cyprus Institute Workshop: Energy Issues Facing Cyprus Nicosia, 14. Oct. 2011 Manfred A. Lange • 10/21/2011 • 1
  • 2. Outline • Background: The Nexus concept • The Current Energy Sector • The Current Water Sector • The Energy-Water Nexus • Future Perspectives: Climate Change • Adaptation and Mitigation Measures • Conclusions
  • 3. Background: The Nexus Concept1) • There are rapidly increasing multiple pressures on the water, energy and food security, including: – Growing demands on resources, and resource degradation – Urbanization – Globalization – Climate change and the need for adaptation and mitigation • The interactions and feedbacks between these pressures drive social- ecological systems at all scales towards critical thresholds and constitute the Water-Energy-Food Nexus • To meet the nexus challenges a sustainability transition is required • Conventional sectoral approaches and optimization of single goals will have to be replaced by co-management and co-governance of water-, energy-, food- (and environmental) security • In this paper we focus on Cyprus and on the Water-Energy Nexus 1) Based on: H. Hoff: Scientific Background Paper for the Bonn 2011 Conference: The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus; DRAFT; pers. com.
  • 4. The Current Energy Sector • Cyprus energy sector heavily dependent on hydrocarbon imports • Only 5% of the demand is satisfied through renewables (solar-thermal water heating) • Energy consumption: transport dominates • CO2 emissions of 8.403 Mill. t in 2008 Main sources of energy in Cyprus; Kassini, 2006 •  well above EU allotment – National Allocation Plan, 2007: 6.252 Mill. t of CO2 – total greenhouse gas emissions: 10.026 Mill. t • Cyprus greenhouse gas emission reduction goals: – Fraction of RES: 13% (by 2020) – Energy efficiency enhancement: 10% (by 2016) Final energy consumption in Cyprus; after Kassini, 2006 4
  • 5. The Current Energy Sector • Electricity capacity of three power stations (2008): 930 MW; production: 5 224 GWh; CO2 emissions of 4.196 Mill. t • Three combined-cycle-gas-turbine (CCGT) -power plants (capacity 220 MW) are/will be commissioned in 2009, 2011, 2013 resp. • Electricity consumption – Steady increase since 1966 – Summer and winter maxima – Domestic and commercial sectors dominate Monthly maximum electricity demand (1997 to 2006; top) and increase in mean monthly electricity consumption in Cyprus (1966-2009; bottom); source: TSO (2010) Mean Sectoral Electricity Consumption in percent for 1975-2009 ; source: Statistical Services Cyprus_2010 5
  • 6. The Current Water Sector • Reduced precipitation leads to low storage in dams  water scarcity • Water Consumption in Cyprus – Agriculture dominates, domestic consumption is close second Storage: 131 M m3 on 13.10.2011 Sectoral water demand in Cyprus for 2011; source: WDD, 2010 Water storage in dams for 1988-2010; source: Water Development Department, 2011 6
  • 7. The Current Water Sector • Domestic Water Supply Government Water Works – Domestic Supply Sources 1991-2010; source: Water Development Department, 2010 7
  • 8. The Current Water Sector • Current seawater desalination: – Water produced, 47,8 Mm3 = 66% of total demand (72,3 Mm3 ) – Total cost of desalination (1997-2007): M€ 218 – Annual electricity consumption: 214 GWh/year – Combined contribution to national CO2 emissions (2009): 4,15% • Additional seawater desalination: – Annually (max.): 44.5 Mm3 to be produced with conventional energy – Total (existing + new): 92,3 Mm3 per year  128 % of current demand Plant Min. Yearly Cost Cost Prod.(Mm3) (M€) (€/m3) Dhekelia 19,8 16,2 0,82 Larnaca 21,4 22,3 1,08 Moni 6,6 9,0 1,39 Total/Mean 47,8 47,5 1,01 Source: Manoli, 2010)
  • 9. The Water-Energy Nexus • In addressing the Water-Energy Nexus, the following issues should be considered: – Coolant water in electricity power plants – Electrical energy for seawater desalination – Energy for water pumping in large-scale distribution/irrigation distribution networks • Cooling for the electric power stations – 6m3/s for each 100 MW of power generated  1,32×109m3/year for 18h/day, 365 days – Sea water and water cooled condensers are utilized for cooling – Water is heated to 7oC above intake temperatures – However, due to outlet culvert design and enhanced mixing at outlet points water temperatures only slightly above ambient seawater temperatures – While the impact of coolant water release on near-coastal ecosystems is currently ill-defined, it may be minimal as a result of the described precautions taken
  • 10. The Water-Energy Nexus • Electrical energy for seawater desalination – Electricity need for seawater desalination: 4,5 kWh/m3 – At current production, total electricity consumption: 214 GWh/year – For future expansion to annually 92,3 Mm3 of desalinated seawater: 415,4 GWh/year  8% of the total electricity consumption for 2008 – Enhanced emissions of CO2 are to be expected • Energy for water transport and distribution – Currently no exact figures available – In the United States of America, 4% of the nation’s electricity use goes towards moving and treating water and wastewater – If we adopt this number for Cyprus  180 MWh/a of electricity will be expanded – This corresponds to 3.5% of the total electricity consumption for 2008 – Enhanced emissions of CO2 are to be expected
  • 11. Future Perspectives: Climate Change • Mean summer (JJA) maximum temperatures Reference Case ∆Tmax: ~1 to 3oC 1980 -1999 2000 - 2019 ∆Tmax: ~2 to 5oC ∆Tmax: ~3 to 8oC 2040 - 2059 2080 - 2099 Projections of future climate conditions as derived from the PRECIS 11 regional climate model; source: Hadjinicolaou, pers. comm.
  • 12. Future Perspectives: Climate Change • Climate extremes: hot days, warm nights, droughts • Less winter rain Today Quantity 2021-2050 2071-2100 (1976-2000) Days with Tmax > 35oC 60 85 (+42%) 120 (+100%) Tropical Nights with Tmin > 25oC 75 120 (+60%) 165 (+120%) Dry spells: consecutive days with 100 108 (+8%) 120 (+20%) precipitation < 1 mm ∆Pw ≈ -25% for 2021-2050 ∆Pw ≈ -40% for 2071-2100 Average change in total winter precipitation (Pw ) relative to reference; source: Hadjinicolaou, pers. comm.
  • 13. Impacts: Increasing Energy Needs • Additional energy needed for the space cooling and desalination considered for Cyprus are: ~670 000 MWh (15.4%) of the total electricity consumption for 2005 (TSO, 2010) • Estimate of increasing energy needs conservative • It does not take into considerations other sectors of the economy, which might similarly require additional energy/electricity under conditions of a warmer and drier climate • Examples include: – Transport sector: sustained air-conditioning in cars  higher fuel consumption  increasing energy consumption – Services sector: increasing demand for air-conditioning and for additional potable water derived from seawater desalination  increasing energy/electricity consumption • We expect an increase in energy demand of ~20 to 30% of the total electricity consumption in Cyprus for the period 2021-2050 relative to the 1961-1990 reference period
  • 14. Adaptation/Mitigation: CSP-DSW • Drawbacks of Seawater Desalination – Relatively energy-intensive – Use of conventional fuels: significant share of electricity consumption, noticeable CO2 emission • Remedies – Switch from oil- to natural-gas fired power plants  – Import of water by ship  • In 2008: 8 Mm3 shipped from Greece; cost ∼€42 M (∼€5/m3) – Use of renewable energy sources • Solar energy seems most effective  • Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) holds significant promise 1 900 kWh/m2 14
  • 15. Adaptation/Mitigation: CSP-DSW • CSP Plants represent proven technology • Due to heat storage  24h/7 d operation possible • Modest land requirement: ≈25 km2 to satisfy all Cypriot electricity needs CSP Plant, Kramer Junction,, CA, USA CSP Plant, Kramer Junction,, CA, USA Schematic representation and flow diagram of a Typical CSP power plant (Source: F. Morse, pers. comm.) 15
  • 16. Adaptation/Mitigation: CSP-DSW Multi-Effect Desalination • Co-Generation of Electricity &Water through CSP: how? • Replace Cooling System by MED 16
  • 17. Conclusions • Current energy/electricity sector dominated by fossil fuel consumption  dependence on energy markets; CO2 emissions • Climate projections: hot summers, increasing drought • Impacts: increasing need for energy (20-30% of current consumption) and water (desalination) • These challenges, constituting the Water-Energy Nexus on Cyprus; they have to be addressed holistically • Solutions have to be found that strive to co-manage energy and water security • Adaptation/Mitigation strategies – Co-generation of electricity and desalinated seawater through employment of concentrating solar power • This technology has the potential to address the Water-Energy Nexus on Cyprus adequately • It should be pursued vigorously