Many factors contribute to Sea Level Rise. Learn more here!

1. Bobbak Talebi
Department of Ecology
Sea Level Change and Coastal
Hazards in Washington

2. Sea Level Change in
Washington
Lara Whitely Binder
Climate Impacts Group
University of Washington

3. For More Details…
National Research Council – April 2012IPCC 2013, WG1, Chapter 13 Mote et al. 2008

4. Future Greenhouse Gas Scenarios
• The previous scenarios have close
analogues in the newer scenarios
• In both sets of scenarios, the high end is a
“business as usual” scenario (RCP 8.5,
SRES A1FI)
• The newer scenarios include an
aggressive mitigation scenario (RCP 2.6)
• All scenarios result in similar warming
until about mid-‐century.
• Greenhouse gas scenarios are consistent
with recent global emissions.

5. What Do We Know About
Global Sea Level Rise?
Sea level has been rising. “Virtually certain” that the rate of
global sea level rise has increased over the last two centuries.
IPCC 2013, Figure SPM.3
1901-2010:
+0.06 in/year
(+7.5 inches total)
1993-2010:
+0.13 in/year
(a trend or natural
variability?)

6. Global Mean SLR Projections
Range of
projected rise for
2100, relative to
1986-2005:
+11 to +38 in.
RCP 2.6: +17 in.
(range: 11-24 in.)
RCP8.5: +29 in.
(range: 21-38 in.)
Figure adapted from IPCC 2013,
Technical Summary for Policy Makers
Solid lines= median value
Dashed lines = likely ranges for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0
Shading = likely ranges for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5

7. Why is SLR not one number?
Assumptions about future
greenhouse gas emissions
matter. Different levels of
greenhouse gas emissions
result in a range of
projections for
temperature, thermal
expansion, etc.
Van Vuuren et al. 2011: http://emf.stanford.edu/files/docs/340/Moss_10.1007-s10584-011-0148-z.pdf

8. Regional Sea Level CHANGE
Observed changes and projections
Photo source: http://www.sequim-real-estate-blog.com/water-

9. Sea level change at any given location and point in
time is determined by many factors
NRC 2012
(+)
(+ or -) (+ or -)
(not
incl.)
(-)
(+)
(+)

10. Rates for vertical
land movement
are highly
variable
Red = uplift
Blue = subsidence
Major Contributing
Factors:
Plate tectonics
Soil compaction
Figure source: NRC 2012

11. Observed Trends
Seattle
Sea level rise of about +8 inches for 1898-2006
(equivalent to a change of +0.68 feet in 100 years)
Source: NOAA Tides and Currents

12. Observed Trends
Neah Bay
Sea level fall between 1934 and 2006 (equivalent to a change
of -0.53 feet, or -6.4 inches, in 100 years)
Source: NOAA Tides and Currents

13. Washington State Sea Level Rise (Mote et al. 2008)
Medium (w/range) estimates of sea level rise in Washington for 2100:
.
NW Olympic Peninsula:
+2” (-9 to +35”)
Central/Southern Coast:
+11” (+2 to +43”)
Puget Sound:
+13” (+6 to +50”)

14. NRC 2012 vs. Mote et al. 2008
Figure source: Climate Impacts Group

15. NRC 2012 vs. Mote et al. 2008
Figure source: Climate Impacts Group
Bottom line: both provide similar ranges and a good scientific
foundation for planning, although differences in vertical land
movement may be important in other locations.

16. “The” number will depend on…
• The expected time horizon of the decision being made
(e.g., 20 years vs. 100 years),
• The ability to adapt the decision over time,
• Available alternatives,
• Risk tolerance, and
• Cost
among other factors…

17. Alki Beach, West Seattle
Photo by Hugh Shipman, WA Dept of Ecology
What Does 2 Feet of SLR Look Like?

18. Alki Beach, West Seattle, January 21, 2010
Photo by Hugh Shipman, WA Dept. of Ecology

19. Near-term Challenges of SLR
Sea level rise increases
storm surge and the risk
of:
• flooding,
• erosion,
• habitat loss
These impacts will
affect coastal areas
long before
permanent inundation.

20. Puget Sound Shorelines

21. Coastal Shorelines

22. Erosion

24. Landslides

25. Flooding
Heather McCartney, MUK

26. Storm Surge

27. Why is this important to consider?
Populations
Buildings
Infrastructure
Natural Resources
Historic Resources
Cultural Resources
Economic Resources
Contaminated Lands
Parks

28. What concerns do you have
about sea level rise?

29. We already do this work

30. Regional efforts
Climate Change Preparedness
Plan for the North Olympic
Peninsula
• Diminishing snowpack
• Shifts in precipitation
• Sea level rise
• Extended warm temperatures
• Ocean acidification

31. Local efforts

32. Design efforts

33. You are not alone
• More support and energy
from the public up to the
federal government
• Many local governments are
interested in taking action
• Building a community of
practice

34. Bobbak Talebi
Coastal Planner
Washington Department of Ecology
Bobbak.Talebi@ecy.wa.gov
Questions?