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Affordable Housing in India:
   Building a New Paradigm


  Indian Habitat Summit – 25th Sep’09
              Rahul Todi
Bengal Shrachi Housing Development Ltd.
The Role of Real Estate - Shaping Indian Economy:

 Real Estate in India is one of the most volatile & keenly watched
segments of the Indian Economy.
 Real estate is second only to agriculture in terms of employment
generation and contributes heavily towards the GDP.
 5% of the country’s GDP is contributed to the housing sector & in the
next 5 years this contribution to GDP is expected to rise to 6%
(Source: IBEF – Indian Brand Equity Foundation).
 Real Estate is responsible for the development of over 250 ancillary
industries such as cement, steel, paints etc.
 ICRA shows construction industry ranks 3rd among 14 major sectors in
terms of direct, indirect & induced effects in the economy.
 A unit increase in expenditure in this sector has a multiplier effect and
the capacity to generate income as high as 5 times. If the economy grows
at the rate of 10% housing sector will grow at the capacity of 14% with a
generation of 3.2 million jobs over a decade.
The Boom of Real Estate – Buying Trends

 From 2005-2008, the Indian Real Estate sector enjoyed 3 years
of boom & unprecedented growth.
 During this period demand for various asset classes remained buoyant
leading to a sharp rise in market prices.
 Supply along certain asset classes like the commercial & luxury
residential sectors also increased markedly.
 Till Q1’08, end-users were very insistent on purchasing houses.
 Easy credit availability and rising income levels resulted in higher
aspiration levels that were well beyond the means and actual
affordability of many individuals.
 The above led to a continuous flow of transactions for developers and
spiraling house prices.
 According to the National Housing Bank (NHB) Residex, house prices
have registered a year-on-year rise of 20-40% in cities like Mumbai,
Delhi, Kolkata between 2007 – 2008.
Sudden face of Recession – Ripple Effects:


 During the 2nd half of ’08 onset of economic led both buyers & developers
to become wary of the situation.
 Job market uncertainties resulted in apprehension in end users for long
term obligations in the residential sector.
 ‘Wait & Watch’ policy was adopted to take advantage of falling prices.
 On the supply side there was concern about increased limited funding
option and decline in aggregate demand.



   As a parallel movement the market for ‘ Affordable Housing’ started
                       grabbing great attention
Definition of “Affordable Housing”


 In many developed countries like USA affordability norm is defined for a
residential unit as 30% or less of a household’s gross annual income.
 Recent study shows that an “Affordable House” should be defined as one
that costs 3 years salary, assuming 10% down payment & 28% going towards
mortgage.
 Back home, HDFC consider 5.1 times annual income as the maximum
affordability of a household (Household earning = Rs. 3 Lacs P/A : Affordable
Housing = Rs.15 Lacs).
“Affordable Housing” does not mean “Low Cost Housing”


 In India ‘Low Cost Housing’ is primarily aimed at Economically Weaker
Sections (EWS) & LIG groups with the intervention & involvement of Govt.
to be prominent.
 The concept of “Affordable Housing” in contrast is applicable across
“ALL” income categories.
 The ‘affordability’ of a household in a given location is an interactive
outcome of house price, income, spending & saving behavior.
 It is recognized that “affordability” is relative to geographical area,
time & income category.
Typical Case Studies of Kolkata :


  Location       Tollygunge               Location            Garia

  Category           B+                    Category            B-

                 1,100 – 2,000                             800 - 1,500
 Area Req.                                Area Req.
                     sq.ft                                    sq.ft

Affordability   Rs 2,700 –3,000          Affordability   Rs 1,700 –2,200

                Rs.30 -45 Lacs                            Rs 15-25 Lacs
Ticket Prices                            Ticket Prices
                  (Approx.)                                 (Approx.)

  Min COC        Min Rs. 2,300             Min COC        Min Rs. 1,400



  **Here Cost of Construction mainly depends on the price of Land also**
Is it really a New Paradigm?

    Affordable housing always existed in society.
    Some of the key aspects of “Affordable Housing” market
     dynamics pertaining to were:
          1. Location of the project
          2. Property specifications
          3. Amenities provided & price identified
          4. Ticket Size of the project
    A number of external hindrances faced by developers are :
          1. High Land Cost
          2. External & Internal development
          3. Charges payable to the Govt.
          4. Permissible Ground Coverage
          5. Restrictive Density Norms
Real Time situation – Potential in numbers:


 The housing requirement for the Rs 3-10 Lacs income groups across 7
major cities are approx. 2.06 million housing units by 2011.
 Assuming the above an avg. household size of 800 sq.ft translates to
a req. of 1,650 million sq.ft of residential space.
 Assuming a price of Rs 2,000 per sq.ft being at par to the demand
catered to the total space requirement translates to a market size of
Rs 3,300 billion or USD 66 billion.




                                         ** Source – Knight Frank 2009**
The Mistakes continue… Dilemma for Buyers

 A research showed that developers continued making the same mistake again
in order to tap the potential numbers.
 Although a number of “Affordable Housing” projects have been announced
the location is in distant suburbs not having adequate basic infrastructure in
order to support them.
Research findings also indicate that ‘good’ connectivity to frequently traveled
places primarily to work places is the most important factor for buyers.


Examples :
 For instance a major project announced outside Mumbai with 1,500 odd apartments
with prices starting at Rs.380,000 or $8,600
 Another major development with approx.1,500 flats would be available for Rs 220,000



   Thus, defining “affordable housing” continues to be a challenge for
             the major players of the “Real Estate Industry”
Government Support – Overcome Bottlenecks



 Expectations from Govt. to provide land bank at subsidized rates. Laws
restricting access to large tracks of land to be eased.
 “Affordable Housing” projects could also thrive in suburban locations by
Govt. bringing far flung areas closer with proper infrastructure with
efficient transport system which is critical to such developments.
 The extension of 80(IB) of the IT Act is a significant step towards this
direction.
 Cross subsidization between Govt. & developer is also a classic example.
For instance, West Bengal we have seen the policy which is widely
supported by the Govt. as the PPP policy.
Government Support – Facilitate Developers




 Special Economic Zones to be converted to ‘Special Residential Zones’
 Enjoying same fiscal benefits like no VAT , service tax etc.
 This will enable to reduce costs by at least 30%
 A cross subsidy model could also be introduced to enable EWS and LIG
Housing
Thank You

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Rahul todi

  • 1. Affordable Housing in India: Building a New Paradigm Indian Habitat Summit – 25th Sep’09 Rahul Todi Bengal Shrachi Housing Development Ltd.
  • 2. The Role of Real Estate - Shaping Indian Economy:  Real Estate in India is one of the most volatile & keenly watched segments of the Indian Economy.  Real estate is second only to agriculture in terms of employment generation and contributes heavily towards the GDP.  5% of the country’s GDP is contributed to the housing sector & in the next 5 years this contribution to GDP is expected to rise to 6% (Source: IBEF – Indian Brand Equity Foundation).  Real Estate is responsible for the development of over 250 ancillary industries such as cement, steel, paints etc.  ICRA shows construction industry ranks 3rd among 14 major sectors in terms of direct, indirect & induced effects in the economy.  A unit increase in expenditure in this sector has a multiplier effect and the capacity to generate income as high as 5 times. If the economy grows at the rate of 10% housing sector will grow at the capacity of 14% with a generation of 3.2 million jobs over a decade.
  • 3. The Boom of Real Estate – Buying Trends  From 2005-2008, the Indian Real Estate sector enjoyed 3 years of boom & unprecedented growth.  During this period demand for various asset classes remained buoyant leading to a sharp rise in market prices.  Supply along certain asset classes like the commercial & luxury residential sectors also increased markedly.  Till Q1’08, end-users were very insistent on purchasing houses.  Easy credit availability and rising income levels resulted in higher aspiration levels that were well beyond the means and actual affordability of many individuals.  The above led to a continuous flow of transactions for developers and spiraling house prices.  According to the National Housing Bank (NHB) Residex, house prices have registered a year-on-year rise of 20-40% in cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata between 2007 – 2008.
  • 4. Sudden face of Recession – Ripple Effects:  During the 2nd half of ’08 onset of economic led both buyers & developers to become wary of the situation.  Job market uncertainties resulted in apprehension in end users for long term obligations in the residential sector.  ‘Wait & Watch’ policy was adopted to take advantage of falling prices.  On the supply side there was concern about increased limited funding option and decline in aggregate demand. As a parallel movement the market for ‘ Affordable Housing’ started grabbing great attention
  • 5. Definition of “Affordable Housing”  In many developed countries like USA affordability norm is defined for a residential unit as 30% or less of a household’s gross annual income.  Recent study shows that an “Affordable House” should be defined as one that costs 3 years salary, assuming 10% down payment & 28% going towards mortgage.  Back home, HDFC consider 5.1 times annual income as the maximum affordability of a household (Household earning = Rs. 3 Lacs P/A : Affordable Housing = Rs.15 Lacs).
  • 6. “Affordable Housing” does not mean “Low Cost Housing”  In India ‘Low Cost Housing’ is primarily aimed at Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) & LIG groups with the intervention & involvement of Govt. to be prominent.  The concept of “Affordable Housing” in contrast is applicable across “ALL” income categories.  The ‘affordability’ of a household in a given location is an interactive outcome of house price, income, spending & saving behavior.  It is recognized that “affordability” is relative to geographical area, time & income category.
  • 7. Typical Case Studies of Kolkata : Location Tollygunge Location Garia Category B+ Category B- 1,100 – 2,000 800 - 1,500 Area Req. Area Req. sq.ft sq.ft Affordability Rs 2,700 –3,000 Affordability Rs 1,700 –2,200 Rs.30 -45 Lacs Rs 15-25 Lacs Ticket Prices Ticket Prices (Approx.) (Approx.) Min COC Min Rs. 2,300 Min COC Min Rs. 1,400 **Here Cost of Construction mainly depends on the price of Land also**
  • 8. Is it really a New Paradigm?  Affordable housing always existed in society.  Some of the key aspects of “Affordable Housing” market dynamics pertaining to were: 1. Location of the project 2. Property specifications 3. Amenities provided & price identified 4. Ticket Size of the project  A number of external hindrances faced by developers are : 1. High Land Cost 2. External & Internal development 3. Charges payable to the Govt. 4. Permissible Ground Coverage 5. Restrictive Density Norms
  • 9. Real Time situation – Potential in numbers:  The housing requirement for the Rs 3-10 Lacs income groups across 7 major cities are approx. 2.06 million housing units by 2011.  Assuming the above an avg. household size of 800 sq.ft translates to a req. of 1,650 million sq.ft of residential space.  Assuming a price of Rs 2,000 per sq.ft being at par to the demand catered to the total space requirement translates to a market size of Rs 3,300 billion or USD 66 billion. ** Source – Knight Frank 2009**
  • 10. The Mistakes continue… Dilemma for Buyers  A research showed that developers continued making the same mistake again in order to tap the potential numbers.  Although a number of “Affordable Housing” projects have been announced the location is in distant suburbs not having adequate basic infrastructure in order to support them. Research findings also indicate that ‘good’ connectivity to frequently traveled places primarily to work places is the most important factor for buyers. Examples :  For instance a major project announced outside Mumbai with 1,500 odd apartments with prices starting at Rs.380,000 or $8,600  Another major development with approx.1,500 flats would be available for Rs 220,000 Thus, defining “affordable housing” continues to be a challenge for the major players of the “Real Estate Industry”
  • 11. Government Support – Overcome Bottlenecks  Expectations from Govt. to provide land bank at subsidized rates. Laws restricting access to large tracks of land to be eased.  “Affordable Housing” projects could also thrive in suburban locations by Govt. bringing far flung areas closer with proper infrastructure with efficient transport system which is critical to such developments.  The extension of 80(IB) of the IT Act is a significant step towards this direction.  Cross subsidization between Govt. & developer is also a classic example. For instance, West Bengal we have seen the policy which is widely supported by the Govt. as the PPP policy.
  • 12. Government Support – Facilitate Developers  Special Economic Zones to be converted to ‘Special Residential Zones’  Enjoying same fiscal benefits like no VAT , service tax etc.  This will enable to reduce costs by at least 30%  A cross subsidy model could also be introduced to enable EWS and LIG Housing