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Flood Forecasting Technology

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Flood Forecasting Technology Workshop, Dublin, Ireland

DHI provided a keynote presentation at the recent Flood Forecasting Technology workshop held at University College Dublin (UCD). The one day workshop described some of the internationally available flood warning platforms, suitable for use in Ireland, and provided an opportunity to discuss requirements with both potential users of warning systems and stakeholders who may use their outputs.

Publicado en: Ingeniería
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Flood Forecasting Technology

  1. 1. Water Forecasting Johan Hartnack DHI 19-01-2016
  2. 2. Our world is water © DHI Introducing DHI The expert in WATER ENVIRONMENTS #2
  3. 3. © DHI Our areas of expertise to help solve the world’s toughest challenges in water environments Aqua- & agriculture Marine structure & energy Climate change Coast & marine Surface & ground water Urban water Industry Environment & ecosystems Product safety & environmental risks #3
  4. 4. What we know Global knowledge of water environments
  5. 5. At our Core Making this knowledge accessible
  6. 6. Our software DHI was one of the inventors of computational hydraulics We have been developing numerical modelling software and advanced decision support systems for nearly 50 years
  7. 7. Flood Forecasting © DHI #7
  8. 8. Roles • Decision makers • Operator/system maintenance • Public © DHI #8
  9. 9. © DHI #9 Needs • Overview with quick assessment of operational choices and impacts • Configuration and maintenance. Advanced operations of system • Clear messages to be understood without specialist knowledge
  10. 10. Decision maker • Evaluate choices quickly • Impact assessment • Issue warnings • Initiate mitigation measures © DHI #10
  11. 11. Operator/system maintenance • Model set-up • Scenario evaluations • Configuration • Data hook up © DHI #11
  12. 12. Dissemination • GIS • Time series • Temporal development • Levels of data access © DHI #12
  13. 13. Configuration and operating system © DHI #13 • Model adaptors configuration through XML files • Workflow - Jobs manager • Create reports
  14. 14. Openness as you need it – empowering you © DHI #14
  15. 15. Spreadsheets • Well known spread sheet functionality • Access live data • Build models • Create reports
  16. 16. © DHI Time series GIS Spreadsheet Scenario Jobs Indicator Analysis MCA/CBA Document Metadata Scripting Scripting • An Iron Python environment • API to all modules • Functionality to store and manage scripts
  17. 17. Code your own Tools • Code your own • API Access to data • Customization
  18. 18. Open Software Architecture © DHI
  19. 19. Full customisation 1. Add your own project tools to the toolbox (ITool) 2. Add your own spreadsheet functions (ISpreadsheetFunction) Pop-up, or tab 4. Add your own context menu entries, and make custom forms pop-up (IVisualizer) 5. Add your own toolstrips to existing views (IToolstrip) 3. Create your own job tasks. 7. Hide the application as we know it, and make it look 100% as you like (IShellExtension + IDataView) 6. DataProviders 8.Adapters
  20. 20. MIKE Operations MIKE Workbench Desktop WEB Data base GIS Time-series Scripting Spreadsheets Jobs Workbench
  21. 21. MIKE MODELS MIKE INFO MIKE PLANNING MIKE OPERATIONS MIKE Technologies for all Water Environments • Packaged as standard products • Configurable • Open (e.g. to data) • Extendable (scripting, API) • Release MIKE INFO and MIKE OPERATIONS in Q4 2015
  22. 22. Embedding Technology in Urban Water Systems: The Aarhus Case Story © DHI #22
  23. 23. Integrated real-time control and warning for urban areas and receiving waters © DHI #23
  24. 24. © DHI Aarhus – Denmark … Second largest city in Denmark … European Cultural Capital 2017 - RETHINK Aarhus …Located by the Sea …310,000 inhabitants #24 ©Sculpturesbythesea©visitaarhus
  25. 25. © DHI Aarhus – Danish for Progress … Architecture and art … Business and industries …Aarhus University …Recreational and active use of the environment #25
  26. 26. Project domain © DHI #26
  27. 27. Motivation © DHI #27
  28. 28. © DHI Project drivers …Integrating water into the urban space … Recreational use of water …New housing area on the harbor front …Rapid city development #28 ©Politiken©Aarhus.dk
  29. 29. A forward looking project made in co- operation between Aarhus Municipality and Aarhus Water From overall vision for the future to concrete plan of actions. Water Vision 2100 ”Pure water both in nature and for drinking – now and in the future 2100 © Aarhus Water © DHI 29
  30. 30. © DHI Expected project outcome …Improved water quality/partly bathing water in River Aarhus … Bathing water in the Harbour (hygienic) …Bathing water in Lake Brabrand (hygienic) #30 © Aarhus Water © Aarhus Water © Aarhus Water
  31. 31. From vision to operation © DHI #31
  32. 32. © DHI 3 projects - 1 solution …Implementation of infrastructure 2007-2012 …Integrated model based control and warning PREPARED 2009-2013 …Analysis and design 2006-2007 #32
  33. 33. Boundary conditions © DHI River through the city Recipient for urban water Water level affects CSO Water level in harbour Defines river gradient Rising sea levels? Good water quality - Harbour bath - Housing on the harbour Increased flooding frequency Outflow depended on the sea level Increased rural run-off due climate changes AIM: To forecast the water quality in the harbour Optimize the capacity of the drainage system and the WWTP’s #33
  34. 34. Domain of real time system control © DHI #34 A B C Return period Rainfallintensity Light rain return period < 1 year Design rain return period 2-10 year Extreme rain return period > 100 year Adapted from: Fratini et al. (2012)
  35. 35. Challenge – Recreational water is receiving water © DHI 3 wastewater treatment plants 75 combined sewer overflows (CSO) 58 storm water drains 50% of the flow in the river is from WWTPs © DHI #35
  36. 36. Finding the right solution © DHI • Multiple scenario analysis based on integrated modelling − Retention basin volumes − System layout − WWTP capacity − Storm water system upgrade − Removal of CSO structures − Disinfection of WWTP effluent − Climate scenarios Mike Urban Model #36
  37. 37. Identified challenges • Sufficient storage tank volume − cost/space limitations in old city center • Sufficient water quality − bathing water quality in Lake Brabrand The Harbour of Aarhus and partly in the River of Aarhus • Climate change − rain intensity and sea level rise © DHI #37 © PREPARED © PREPARED © PREPARED
  38. 38. Solution - 50 mill. EUR project 2009-2013 • Infrastructure investment − 9 retention basins − Disinfection at WWTPs and basin − Increased hydraulic capacity at WWTPs • Optimized control System − Integrated real time modelling/control (sewer system/WWTP) − Early Warning System © DHI #38
  39. 39. Integrated Real Time Control System © DHI SCADA Models Rainfall forecast • Automated operation of: − Data collection − Data processing − Model execution − Finding the optimal solution − Control of structures − Issue warnings #39
  40. 40. Integrated real-time control © DHI Sewer #40
  41. 41. DHI Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) • Small scale weather radar − X-band radar • Range • 60 km for forecast • 20 km for Quantitative Est. • Spatial resolution (Cartesian) • 500x500, 250x250, 100x100 m • Image frequency • 1 or 5 minute LAWR installation in Aarhus Denmark. © DHI #41
  42. 42. © DHI MIKE 11 MIKE URBAN MIKE 3MIKE SHE Data flow Model preparation Model execution Real time control Issues of warning Distributed rainfall from DHI Radar Automated Integrated Modelling
  43. 43. DHI bathing water forecast service © DHI #43 Live data from CSO’s and river model for forecasting Deterministic coastal models of fate of pollutants Live warning and information dissemination
  44. 44. • App and web based public warning system Public information on bathing water quality © DHI #44
  45. 45. Internet 45 Environmental Section Aarhus Municipality Aarhus Water Utility company Waterforecast Operated by DHI One realtime system - Integrating data from multiple organizations and authorities © DHI
  46. 46. Status © DHI #46
  47. 47. © DHI Project Status …Improved water quality in River Aarhus … Bathing water in the Harbour (hygienic) …Bathing water in Lake Brabrand (hygienic)    #47 © Stiften ©Politiken © Stiften
  48. 48. Saving in investment © DHI • Ordinary and larger retention basins 79 million EUR • Controllable and smaller retention basins 45,6 million EUR • Automation and control system 1,7 million EUR • Total 47,3 million EUR • Saving 32 million EUR 40 % #48
  49. 49. “Optimise the capacity of YOUR drainage infrastructure and improve water quality by a unique hybrid approach of retrofitting sustainable urban drainage systems and smart management of storm water.” © DHI #49 Future Applications
  50. 50. Flood Forecasting for All: The Greve Case Story © DHI #50
  51. 51. Simple and effective web applications for real time monitoring and early warning systems © DHI #51
  52. 52. Greve – Flood Warning System
  53. 53. Web solution MIKE Models Rainfall forecast Greve – Flood Warning System MIKE21 FM MIKE URBAN CS MIKE OPERATIONS Automatic Operation Results every 4 hours Forecast 24 hours Web solution based on MIKE products
  54. 54. Greve – Flood Warning System MIKE Web technology Time-series GIS Spreadsheets … MIKE Web API Website Polymer/Web Components Configurable MIKE product Project specific implementation
  55. 55. Looking ahead • Faster model execution − Hardware − Surrogate models • Data driven − Model less forecasts? − Management © DHI 55
  56. 56. Conclusions • System must adapt to roles • Openness – to suit you • One package – serving multiple needs © DHI 56
  57. 57. For more details Nick Elderfield, DHI Water Environments UK Ltd nje@dhigroup.com Johan Hartnack, DHI jnh@dhigroup.com © DHI #57

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