History and the evolution of sciences have taught us that in order to come up with results that can benefit in a efficient manner the whole of society, research has to be steered and coordinated in such a way, as to foster and promote collaboration between researchers. Only such an organised attempt will result in addressing the main challenges of the future that are being revealed every day. However, prior to reaching those points, one has to envision how the future will look like and how people and enterprises will operate in such an environment. The latter can be achieved by employing visionary scenarios that are in a position to describe in an efficient and effective way the future of society and businesses.

1. ENVISIONING FUTURE
INTERNET ENTERPRISE
SYSTEMS: VISIONARY
SCENARIOS AND NEW
RESEARCH AREAS
Y. Charalabidis, F. Lampathaki, S. Koussouris, S. Mouzakitis
Greek Interoperability Center (GIC)
National Technical University of Athens
Dr. Sotiris Koussouris, Greek Interoperability Center (GIC),
DSSL-NTUA
skous@epu.ntua.gr

2. Why? How?
WHY
 To identify the major challenges that lay ahead for Future Internet Enterprise Systems
(FInES)
HOW?
1. A debate among experts through brainstorming and public consultation activities,
towards a shared vision, able to inspire collaborative and interdisciplinary research
2. Defining the characteristics of the enterprise in a changing landscape
3. Identification of the new, emerging FI enterprise systems for the enterprise of the
future
4. Envisioning new research directions for FInES, contributing towards the new FInES
Research Roadmap

3. Relevant Work
 Towards a Future Internet: Interrelation between Technological, Social and Economic
Trends. Final Report for DG Information Society and Media by the Oxford Internet
Institute, 2010.
 Envisioning Digital Europe 2030: Scenarios for ICT in Future Governance and Policy
Modelling. IPTS JRC Scientific and Technical Reports. EUR 24614 EN, 2010.
 Future Internet Scenarios by the Internet Society, 2009.
 Future Internet 2020: Call for action by a high level visionary panel, 2009.
 The way to work: Space, place and technology in 2016. An Orange Future Enterprise
coalition report, 2006.
 Other Scenario Building and Foresight exercices in research papers

4. Methodological Approach
4
Identify Basic Trends
Extract Key
Uncertainties
Define Scenarios Framework
Map
Visionary
Scenarios
Elaborate on
Storyboards
Identify the role of FI Enterprise Systems and
Bring forward the FInES Research Directions
Enterprise
Characteristics Samos 2011 Summit WGs

5. Scenarios Framework
Machine Intelligence
- Centrally controlled
- Highly Integrated
- Machine-based Decision making
Degree of contribution to value generation
Societal Prevailing business strategy Enterprise
Values Values
- Sustainable - Short-term
- Environment Friendly - Lucrative
- Global Value Optimization - Corporate Aggregation
- Collaborative - Individualism
- Sharing - Competitive
- Open
Human Intelligence
- Decentralised
- Creativity oriented
- Human initiative based

6. Where we are today ?
Machine Intelligence
Huffington
Post
Societal Enterprise
Values Values
Human Intelligence

7. Where will we be in 2030 ?
Machine Intelligence
Societal Enterprise
Values Values
Human Intelligence
Axis X: Prevailing business strategy; Axis Y: Degree of contribution to value generation

8. At what extremes will enterprises be
in 2030 ?
Machine Intelligence
Societal Enterprise
Values Values
Human Intelligence
Axis X: Prevailing business strategy; Axis Y: Degree of contribution to value generation

9. Scenario 1: Leviathan Economy
 Society: Governance based on intelligent and progressed modelling, simulation and
decision-making systems. Big companies work towards achieving global societal values.
 Economy: All activities are under constant surveillance. Transactions are made with
ultimate automation. People tend to choose high-tech, collaborative, connected,
society-driven enterprises as preferred business activity.
 Innovation: new start-ups target research on automating and ICT-enabling social
sciences and practices (e.g. law, history, psychology).
 Market conditions: Time to market is not so critical, barriers of entry are not so high,
as a long-term vision prevails for most enterprises. No patents. Collaboration is key
(B2B, B2C).
 Security / Privacy: identity management is crucial, but identification is solved
(seamless security - Biometrics solve the issues). Transparency is absolute.

10. Scenario 2: Big Brother Economy
 Society: Large corporations are in control. Highly sophisticated, proprietary policy making
systems at the disposal of their CEOs. The role of government diminishes. Citizens adopt a
self-concerned attitude & feel unable to exert influence towards the common good.
 Economy: Interests of the private sector prevail. All activities are under constant corporate
surveillance. Free market rules apply. Gaps between fewer richer people and more poor
people are growing. Access to critical resources becomes more and more expensive.
 Innovation: new start-ups target research on a specific business context for potential future
acquisition. Technological innovation and growth is high on private universities and
corporate labs, but fragmented.
 Market conditions: marketing plans are developed based on sources of information at the
disposal of each enterprise. Time to market is really critical, especially for patents. Seamless
electronic collaboration is key to all transactions (B2B, B2C).
 Security / Privacy: identity management solved through advanced biometrics, tracking and
tracing mechanisms. No privacy. personal data are at the disposal of large corporations.

11. Scenario 3: Gold Rush Economy
 Society: Humans remain the main decision makers, technology just supports. Societal and
moral values are constantly droping, revenue is becoming the new religion. Big & known
brands tend to monopolize the market.
 Economy: Not transparent. Increased revenue is a priority, overlooking important
ecological/societal risks (e.g. putting the enterprise first). Huge enterprises tend to govern
economy and acquire SMEs that tend to grow bigger than exepected.
 Innovation: Big brands and innovative SMEs are based on the individual talent/skill of
specific employees/visionaries for advancing research. Innovatation targets systems that
express the full potential of human creativity and initiative.
 Market Conditions: Marketing resides more on exclusivity and human desire. Collaboration
is seamless withing the same group of companies. Products and services enter the market
quite fast, based on idividual ideas which are filled in as patents.
 Security / Privacy: Identity Management is still an issue, as various systems with various
access levels exist. Private data belong to the enterprises upon citizens’ approval.

12. Scenario 4: Hippie Economy
 Society: Humans are taking over of most decisions, only supported by technology. In many
cases, decisions are in contrast with the options provided by simulation technologies, as the
overall good of society is the absolute priority and prevails over the need to advance the
enterprise values.
 Economy: Most economic activities are human driven and transparent. There is no full
automated way for conducting transactions, but a regulation framework exists to guarantee.
 Innovation: New start-ups target on the individual talents of humans and focus more on the
actual service/product, while ICT is only a supportive means. Innovatation targets systems
that express the full potential of human creativity and initiative.
 Market conditions: Marketing plans are contructed based on human needs and subjective
opinions. Time to market is not so critical, barriers of entry are not quite low, as a long-term
vision prevails for most enterprises. No patents. Stricly automated collaboration is not
important and open and collaborative approaches are promoted.
 Security / Privacy: Identity management and identification is decentralised. People choose
the privacy information they want to disclosure.

13. Questions
 What will be the characteristics of the enterprise (of all sizes)
in each scenario ?
 Management
 Production
 Logistics
 HR
 Marketing

14. Scenario 1: High Tech NGO
Enterprise Characteristics in 2030
 Management: Flat and functional organisation. Increased transparency and
collaborative decision making. Enterprises adopt a societal welfare-sensitive value
system in order to avoid actions that could provoke problems.
 Production: Enterprise processes are highly formalised and rational, being
supported by huge databases. Focus on connecting with each other than just
executing simple transactions. Products are driven by customer needs and
enterprises allow service co-generation (“Prosumer”)
 Logistics: Highly distributed & adaptable covered by machines that decide how &
where to organise supply chains and how to source product and services.
 Marketing: Business intelligence in the centre of operation and utilisation of
systems allowing instant on-line marketing, analysing the world market and
identifying customers opinions on a product/campaign/brand

15. Scenario 2: Technocratic Corporation
Enterprise Characteristics in 2030
 Management: More hierarchical and formal structures. Decisions indicated by
management information systems and people just approve them.
 Production & Logistics: Full automation. Highly intelligent machines and IT
systems self-control and optimise the performance of the corresponding
departments. Employees attain a more subsidiary role in production and logistics
at all their stages since (even during the design and the planning phases).
 HR: Provision of individually tailored performance and innovation incentives and
compensation packages for more and better results and new ideas. Fierce
competition among enterprises at the HR departments’ for hiring talented and
passionate people.
 Marketing: Personalised, instant marketing exploiting the deluge of personal data
and preferences

16. Scenario 3: Creative SME
Enterprise Characteristics in 2030
 Management: KPIs are everywhere but managers have the last word.
Collaboration is based on short term and informal agreements.
 Production: Sensors that monitor &control quality, also employees’ performance.
Automation replaced much of the workforce, but humans deal with complex
decisions and with artistic activities, which deliver the exclusivity factor.
 Logistics: Need of efficient, timely and low cost transportation mechanisms is vital
for the survival of enterprises.
 HR: Distant working. Individualism regarding the labour conditions & the labour
market, as there exist neither unions nor any enterprise wage agreements
 Marketing: Advance opinion mining mechanisms to identify the needs and likes of
the consumers, in order to create focused campaigns. Quite narrow product
ranges.

17. Scenario 4: Creative Commons
Enterprise Characteristics in 2030
 Management: Highly adaptive and collaborative. Seeking cooperation
opportunities in view of mutual gain. Profit is not the overarching motive.
 Production: Relying heavily on human talent and individuality, is sustainable and
eco-friendly. Mutual trust between suppliers and clients. The needs of the
minority are not left aside, even if it increases production costs.
 Logistics: Being limited to the absolutely necessary, supported by intelligent
routing algorithms for efficient resource utilisation.
 HR: Focusing on people, motivating them to show their skills.
 Marketing: Heavily based on social network opportunities and acting as an
education vessel towards customers.

18. Future Research Areas 1/3
Grand Challenges, which should be regarded as lighthouse objectives for the research
community over a period of 5-10 years
Grand Challenge I: Model-based Enterprise
 Data and opinion mining tools for analysing consumer opinion, satisfaction and
buying trends
 Societal simulation systems and methods, for analysing and forecasting enterprise
network and consumer behaviour
 Specialised visualisation and visual analytics tools for the enterprise, able to show
processes, organisational units, or financial results at various abstraction levels
 Next generation enterprise decision support and decision making tools, able to
solve global optimisation problems at real-time
 Systems tackling fuzziness and incomplete or low-quality problem data in
enterprise environments

19. Future Research Areas 2/3
Grand Challenge II: Social and Collaborative Enterprise
 Electronic services for product & service co-design, through collaboration within
customer & enterprise social networks
 Long term planning & optimisation tools for the enterprise, accounting for
sustainable development, energy saving and maximising resource utilisation
 Enterprise & sector-specific language corpora and real-time, online translation
tools for specific cross-country collaboration
 Novel systems for managing and extending core competences of individuals, for
better utilisation of human capital, better working conditions, and innovation in
product / service design
 Social graph analysis and visualisation systems for the enterprise, combined with
public and private sector information

20. Future Research Areas 3/3
Grand Challenge III: Next Generation Enterprise Services in a Global Environment
 Cloud computing offerings, making use of massive, scalable computing power and
storage for enterprises of all sizes and digital literacy levels
 Seamless security, identity management and trust, as interoperable eID solutions
in the enterprise context – possible combined with National/EU security and
identity frameworks
 Intelligent service generation & deployment, through understanding customer
needs in advance
 Service mashups combining private and public sector services
 Contextualisation of sensor information, within IoT environments, towards more
efficient and interactive monitoring and control mechanisms
 New, intelligent software & middleware to allow dynamic collaboration and
interoperation by design
 Virtual and mixed reality systems and ambient technologies, providing new
experiences with enhanced products and services

21. Critical Factors for Success
 Interoperability should be a key element spanning over cloud
infrastructures, enterprise units, systems, objects, services and software.
 New research efforts must have a multi-disciplinary nature, as
information and communication technologies have to be now coupled
with sociology, management science, complexity theory and more.
 Effective resource utilisation, energy saving and environment
preservation, especially under the prism of the lasting economic crisis,
will be key differentiating elements for enterprises of all sizes.

22. THANK YOU!
Dr. Sotiris Koussouris, Greek Interoperability Center (GIC),
DSSL-NTUA
skous@epu.ntua.gr