Knowledge framework and tools for the management of coastal risks in Emilia - Romagna (Italy)

Knowledge framework and tools for the management of coastal risks in Emilia - Romagna (Italy)

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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 Knowledge framework and tools for the management of coastal risks in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) Dott. Geol. Luisa Perini Settore difesa del territorio - Area Geologia, Suoli e Sismica
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 A long history of collaboration with the ICGC Long-standing Collaboration: the partnership between the Emilia- Romagna, ICGC and Geological Surveys of Bavaria began in 1992 with the EUREGEO Congress, created as an opportunity for regional geological surveys technicians and the research community to meet and exchange best practices and methodologies in the field of “emerging” information systems: A Technical Milestoneis the 2004 LiDAR survey, conducted by ICGC along the Emilia-Romagna coastline, served as a foundational "stone" for the work presented today.
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 Outline • Emilia-Romagna Coastal zone Management • The sea and coast information systems - tools • Coastal risks • Knowledge priorities • Main ongoing projects
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 The Emilia-Romagna coastal zone resources and vulnerability extremely exposed to the effects of climate change: • the coastal plain was largely formed after the Last Sea Level Rise (5 Ky B.P.), • Ongoing SLR will bring: accelerated coastal retreat and loss of natural ecosystems; salinization of aquifer and soils and salt intrusion into the river impacts on anthropic infrastructures/activities, and thus on society tourism is the pivotal asset its development also depends on the preservation/restoration of coastal morphologies (dunes; beaches) and other resources (e.i. water, biodiversity) Urban sprawl has increased by +400% in the last 70 years. It was particularly fast immediately after World War II, leading to high interference between human infrastructure and nature 4 42 km 23 km The 140 km of coastline (including the Goro Spit) is a strategic area for ER region, actively seeking a sustainable compromise among the different economic sectors, environment protection and cultural heritage valorization Main economies: Tourism (overall contributes for the 11% of the regional GDP) Transport and harbour facilities (26 ports/marinas Aquaculture (contribute to the 45% of national production) Fishery (small scale- 609 vessels – 4500 workers Energy (oil&gas and the uncoming regasifier and renewable energy) shoreline 5500 y BP Goro-spit Ravenna Rimini
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 Coastal zone management in Emilia-Romagna Governance – plans & strategies • ERDF-Regional Operational Program 2021- 2027 • Maritime Spatial Plan (Adriatic Sea 2024) • Water Management and Protection Plan (PTA 2030) • PGRA – Flood Risk Management Plan – coastal zone (since 2015) • ICZM Regional Guidelines 2005 • Strategy for Integrated Management of Coast Protection and Adaptation (GIDAC 2022)
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 Knowledge framework and tools The Sea and Coast Information System • In_Coast: geology – morfology and coastal dynamics • In_Defence: updated catalogs of coastal works and beach nourishment interventions • In_Sand: geophysical and geognostic data for the management of sands from submarine deposits – updated available volumes • In_Risk: Analytical tools, flood hazard maps; erosion and flood susceptibility indicators • In_Storm: storm surges information, impacts maps, & short- long-term analysis • In_Move: subsidence monitoring datasets: interferometry - DGPS - extensometer • In_Sea (GAIR): data concerning sea uses and their impact Other databases are at an early development stage The SIC is modular and is currently composed of seven databases • Launched in 2001-2002 - partially financed through EU projects ( Interreg Cadsealand 2004-06; Plancoast 2006- 08 – FP7 Micore 2008-11; National Ritmare & Interreg Portodimare 2016-20; Adriaclim 2020-222) • Several collaborations established with institutions, research centers, and universities for in-depth activities
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 Knowledge framework and tools Main monitoring & datasets LIDAR: RER 2004 (ICGC) - ENI 2006 - PNT 2008 - MICORE 2009 - RER-Prot. Civ. 2010 – eni 2012 – ADBPO2019 – RER 2023 • Morphological survey : lidar – topo-batimetry - DGPS • Geological survey: seismic survey - coring – CPTU • Hydrogeological survey: salinity, temperature, and piezometry of aquifers • Land motion (TInSAR – extensimeter- DGPS) • Photogrammetry • Historical cartography • Oceanographic information RENO RIVER MOUTH Maximum progradatio phase in 1570(Pasi ma 1814 1893
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 Key tools for analysis and products GIS tools and cartography – 3D modelling A GIS-based model (in_Coastflood) has been developed for flood risk assessment; it integrates a module for elevation and continuity analysis and a wave motion attenuation formula based on distance from the shore A 3D geological model is used to perform an integrated analysis of various subsurface datasets (geotechnical, geophysical, and electrical conductivity (EC) data) The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) from the USGS is utilized to analyze shoreline evolution rates and to provide future coastal forecasts
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 Key tools for analysis and products Coastal Indicators Main indicators Main Reference Data / Methodology Coastal Erosion (trend and volumes) topo-bathymetric data – Lidar - DSAS Beach Width aerial photointerpretation and LiDAR Beach Elevation LiDAR data Coastal Ridge Status (Height + Width) LiDAR & aerial photointerpretation Coastal dunes (classes: types; dimension; vegetation) LiDAR & aerial photointerpretation Coastal Protection Based on the regional coastal defense catalogue Coastal Artificialization Aerial photointerpretation and land use mapping The coastal ridge includes all internal beach and backshore elements with elevations exceeding 2 meters
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 Knowledge framework: coastal risks Shoreline retreat Geological studies have highlighted a dramatic reduction in fluvial sediment supply since the end of the Little Ice Age (~1300– 1860), triggering the rectification of the coastline. Shoreline retreat rates reach maximum values of -12 m/y at the Reno River mouth. Currently, 47% of the regional coastline is affected by erosion of at different levels of intensity. Since 1943, over 2 km² of coast have been lost Sediments are also intercepted by maritime structures, which cause severe asymmetries in beach size: as in the case of Porto Garibaldi 1943 shoreline Reno river mouth 600 m dismantling of river mouths and the outcropping of fine back- dune deposits in_Coast Coastal dynamics 1943-2023 The 57% of the coastline is protected by defense works
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 Knowledge framework: coastal risks Morphological setting and dune loss Coastal dynamics 1943-2023 Height < - 2 meters -2 < Height < 0 meters 0 < Height < + 2 meters Height > 2 meters Lagoons Hills and mountain in_Coast Approximately 1200 km² of the coastal plain lies below sea level, reflecting the fossil morphologies of the ancient Po Delta. These areas are often bordered on the seaward side by discontinuous dunes and are frequently densely urbanized beaches are characterized by low elevations; approximately 50% hm <1.5 m - the thickness of the 'active beach' wedge is constantly decreasing due to a chronic sediment deficit The degradation of coastal dune systems is alarming: • 88 hectares were lost between 1943 and 2008 (based on aerial photogrammetry). • 10 hectares disappeared in the 2004–2019 period (based on LiDAR data) – mainly active dunes • Currently, dunes are present along 44% of the coast (51 km out of 116 analyzed) • 90% of the dunes consist of 'stabilized dunes,' which include large portions of beach ridges from the 20th and 19th centuries or older (dating back to the 17th century). • 82% of the coastal dunes (charted in 2019) have an elevation of < 2 m, highly
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 Different return period scenarios P3 Tr =10 anni P2 Tr =100 anni P1 Tr >>100 anni Total water level considering: wave set-up; tide and surge +1.5 m + 1.8 m + 2.50 m Floodable surface in 2019 15.5 km2 29.5 km2 78.9 km2 Lido do Savio 5-6 Febbraio 2015 in_Risk Knowledge framework: : coastal risks Sea flooding ( EU DIR 2007/60) Coastal morphology and subsidence exacerbate the risk of coastal flooding during storm surge events
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 Knowledge framework: : coastal risks Land subsidence Anthropogenic subsidence exceeded 5 cm/year in past decades (Cesenatico) but has been significantly reduced through groundwater and gas extraction controls; current maximum values are 8– 9 mm/year in areas (southern Ravenna) where gas extraction is still ongoing Subsidence monitoring has a long history, based on multiple complementary techniques: • Levelling of the coastal network: 1984, 1987, 1993, 1999, 2005 • GPS network surveys: 1999, 2002 • InSAR analyses: 1992–2000, 2002–2006, 2006–2011–2016–2021 A big issue for the future, especially considering sea-level rise
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 Lido do Savio 5-6 Febbraio 2015 Future risk scenarios climate change The 1200 km² of low‑lying areas may increase by 25% by 2100 Sea flood hazard for 100‑year return period events (Tr100) may increase by more than 3.5 times by 2100 (based on IPCC AR5 scenarios) FLOODABLE AREAS FOR LOW FREQUENT SCENARIO TR= 100Y POSSIBILE INCREASE AT THE 2100 in_Risk +346 km2 Areas below m.s.l at 2012 Areas below m.s.l at 2100 Rimini Ravenna Perini L., Calabrese L., Luciani P., Olivieri M., Galassi G., Spada G., 2017, “Sea-level rise along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Northern Italy) in 2100: scenarios and impacts”, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2271-2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/ nhess-17-2271-2017 Impact analysis of sea-level rise and subsidence on land loss (cs1)and marine flooding hazards (cs2) in 2100 : a no-intervention case study Cs1 - modelled the DTM in 2100: DTM2012 – DVMM (Ps_InSar projected in 2100) Cs1 – applied in_Coastfloof model
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 WHAT SHOULD WE CONCENTRATE ON? Pillar 1 Pillar 2 Reducing human pressure on the coastline and increase prevention Ensure optimal management of coastal sediments and morphologies • Implement adaptation measures to mitigate current and future sea storms risks, including managed retreat where possible • Promote use of NBS – along with continuous monitoring of coastal defense structures and their regular maintenance. • Strengthen storm‑surge early warning systems and research on impacts related to climate change • Improve knowledge of coastal sediments and offshore sand sources used for artificial beach nourishment - essential in the short term • Increase coastal dune protection • Improve river basin management to support sediment transport processes
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 Knowledge priorities - Ongoing projects Land-Sea Interface Geology RER-CNR-ISMAR Main objectives • Understand long-term dynamics (such as the activation and deactivation processes of river mouths). • Analyze the dimensions of the active beach wedge • Characterize the subsoil from a geomechanical perspective (e.g., compaction of Holocene deposits) Sand deposits Fine-grained silty and clayey deposits
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 Knowledge priorities - Ongoing projects Geological multi-hazard map ISPRA has just funded the Ravenna geo-thematic map (n.223- 1:5.000 surface around 550 km2) focusing on the several geological hazards affecting the area. Coastal erosion Sea flooding Sediment compaction Liquefaction triggered by earthquakes Saltwater Intrusion Flood Susceptibility
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 Ongoing main projects Coastal Dune monitoring and restoration Already completed: • Coastal dune mapping for 2004 and 2019 (integrating LiDAR data and photointerpretation) • Inventory of dune gaps • Census of dune protection and reconstruction interventions. To be done: • Evaluation of dune protection efficiency • Pilot testing of new interventions: sand traps and gap closures.
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 Lido di Spina Punta Marina Lido di Dante Milano Marittima Cesenatico Nord Igea Marina Riccione Sud Misano Ongoing main projects Offshore Sand Research Beach nourishment strategy in Emilia- Romagna: Offshore relict sand deposits (DSMR) Sand bottom Sand deposits seafloor Extraordinary interventions every 6-8 years (predominantly using DSMR sands) and annual ordinary interventions using reclaimed sands and beach scraping In order to guarantee regular interventions, deep knowledge of the deposits is required. Geognostic and geophysical surveys are currently being carried out in collaboration with the CNR-ISMAR institute to update the in_Sand database in_Sand
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 Ongoing main projects Review of the early-warning system - sea storm thresholds The coastal - early warning system (developed as prototype under the EU MICORE project in 2011) has been operational since 2017. • Enables prediction of beach flooding and potential hazards to the beach, infrastructure, and urban areas • Forecasts up to 72 hours before the event • Based on morphodynamic models (13 transects) • Meteomarine thresholds have been defined • Impact thresholds: distance from dunes or man-made structures. Impact theasholds SCW (o BWD) < 5 m high 5 m < SCW (o BWD)< 10 m medium SCW (o BWD) > 10 m low The revision of the thresholds is underway, based on: • Updated meteo-marine dataset – significantly more robust than the 2011 version; wave data (since 2007) and 2 tide gauges (since 1980 and 2010) • Wave Hindcast (1994-2020), from WAVEWATCH III forced with ERA5. • Impact dataset: the storm impact database includes recontruction of events since 1946 and obervations since 2011.
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 ACCESSO PUBBLICO AI DATI Online portals for public data access and download MinERva https://datacatalog.regione.emilia-romagna.it/catalo gCTA/dataset?groups=costa MOKA RER https://ambiente.regione.emilia-romagna.it/it/geol ogia/geologia/costa-e-mare/sistema-informativo-m are-costa Arpae –RER Environmental Indicators risks: https://webbook.arpae.it Adriatic portal for MSP& Blue Growth https://www.portodimare.eu/
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 Publications https://ambiente.regione.emilia-romagna.it/it/geologia
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  Perini Luisa -AGSS 19/02/2026 https://ambiente.regione.emilia-romagna.it/it/geologia/geologia/costa Luisa Perini luisa.perini@regione.emilia-romagna.it Lorenzo Calabrese lorenzo.calabrese@regione.emilia-romagna.it Jessica Lelli Jessica.lelli@regione.emilia-romagna.it Thank you